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MTST

Montana State 28 at Oregon State 68

ORST
2022 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2022 · Providence Park
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Win probability · ORST
modelORST aheadMTST aheadconfidence bandkey playORST scoreMTST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:02 · Bryce Leighton punt for 31 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+39.5+19.80−19.8−39.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 136Pregame prior+2.5Home team on offense+36.1Score differential+30.7Blowout margin+17.4Garbage-time factor+11.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:19: Sean Chambers run for 7 yds for a TD, (Blake Glessner KICK) — MTST win probability +2.7 pts (now 14%) (top driver: MTST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:09: Chance Nolan run for 1 yd for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK) — ORST win probability +2.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 6:19: Chance Nolan pass complete to Silas Bolden for 24 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK) — ORST win probability +2.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 4:14: Chance Nolan pass complete to Anthony Gould for 9 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes PAT MISSED) — ORST win probability +5.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:21: Sean Chambers 8 Yd Run (Blake Glessner Kick) — MTST win probability +4.1 pts (now 6%) (top driver: MTST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MTST made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 5:19MTST 4th & 1 at ORST 7, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    14.9%−0.3
    91% to make
    Punt
    14.1%−1.1
    average punt
  2. Q2 10:53ORST 4th & 1 at MTST 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    82.9%−1.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    82.8%−1.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 4:08MTST 4th & 1 at MTST 27, down 20
    Close callPunted · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.4%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:39MTST 4th & 1 at MTST 27, down 20
    Close callPunted · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.8%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:00ORST 4th & 15 at MTST 28, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.7%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.6%
    60% to make
    Punt
    93.1%−2.5
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:41MTST 4th & 5 at MTST 44, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.5%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 5:45MTST 4th & 16 at MTST 25, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:07MTST 4th & 16 at MTST 25, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  9. Q4 7:55MTST 4th & 1 at ORST 1, down 40
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−0.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q4 3:02MTST 4th & 6 at MTST 29, down 40
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
  11. Q4 1:37MTST 4th & 6 at MTST 29, down 40
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORST made the numbers' call on 9 of 9MTST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 11:20ORST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:19MTST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:51ORST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:09ORST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:19ORST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 4:14ORST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    95.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:21MTST Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 5:51ORST Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 1:09ORST Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 12:33ORST Touchdown, up 39 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 7:55MTST Touchdown, down 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 3:02ORST Touchdown, up 39 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ORSTDrive 1TD
8 plays · 90 yds · 3:3390% → 89%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+23
89.5%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 23 yds to the OrgSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
89.5%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 6
OWN 37
0
89.5%
Damien Martinez run for no gain to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q1 14:53
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+10
89.5%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 10 yds to the OrgSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
89.5%
Damien Martinez run for 11 yds to the MntSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+17
89.5%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Anthony Gould for 17 yds to the MntSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
89.2%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 25 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSTDrive 2TD
10 plays · 66 yds · 5:5411% → 14%
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
88.9%
Sean Chambers run for 9 yds to the MntSt 43Similar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 1
OWN 43
-2
88.9%
Clevan Thomas run for a loss of 2 yards to the MntSt 41Similar
Q1 11:13
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+11
88.9%
run for 11 yds to the OrgSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
88.8%
Tommy Mellott pass complete to Clevan Thomas for 10 yds to the OrgSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
88.8%
run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+15
88.7%
run for 15 yds to the OrgSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
88.7%
Sean Chambers run for no gain to the OrgSt 16Similar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+8
88.7%
run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 8Similar
Q1 11:13
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+1
88.8%
run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 7Similar
Q1 5:19
4TH & 1
OPP 7
+7
86.1%
Sean Chambers run for 7 yds for a TD, (Blake Glessner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 3TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:2887% → 88%
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
86.5%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
86.5%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Anthony Gould for 9 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
86.6%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
86.6%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:19
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+14
86.3%
Chance Nolan run for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
50
-3
87.0%
Jam Griffin run for a loss of 3 yards to the OrgSt 47Similar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 13
OWN 47
0
86.7%
MONTANA ST Penalty, Offsides (Sebastian Valdez) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
87.1%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+3
87.1%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 3 yds to the MntSt 25Similar
Q1 5:19
3RD & 7
OPP 25
-15
87.0%
OREGON ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Deshaun Fenwick) to the MntSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
87.1%
Damien Martinez run for 7 yds to the MntSt 10Similar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+2
87.1%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 2 yds to the MntSt 8Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+2
85.4%
Chance Nolan run for 2 yds to the MntSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
87.9%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 6 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSTDrive 4INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0713% → 13%
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
86.7%
Tommy Mellott pass interceptedSimilar
Q2 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
86.7%
Tommy Mellott pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 5TD
7 plays · 58 yds · 3:2888% → 90%
Q2 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+25
87.7%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 25 yds to the MntSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:37
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
87.9%
Jam Griffin run for 1 yd to the MntSt 32Similar
Q2 14:37
2ND & 9
OPP 32
0
87.8%
Jam Griffin run for no gain to the MntSt 32Similar
Q2 14:37
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+10
87.6%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 10 yds to the MntSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:37
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+15
87.9%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Jake Overman for 15 yds to the MntSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
87.9%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 6 yds to the MntSt 1Similar
Q2 11:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
90.4%
Chance Nolan run for 1 yd for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 6TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:3487% → 90%
Q2 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
86.5%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 17 yds to the OrgSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
87.2%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 13 yds to the MntSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
87.4%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 6 yds to the MntSt 39Similar
Q2 10:53
2ND & 4
OPP 39
-3
87.4%
Damien Martinez run for a loss of 3 yards to the MntSt 42Similar
Q2 10:53
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+6
87.0%
Damien Martinez run for 6 yds to the MntSt 36Similar
Q2 10:53
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+17
86.7%
Damien Martinez run for 17 yds to the MntSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-10
87.4%
BOLDEN, Silas rush to the right for a gain of 19 yards to the MST0, TOUCHDOWN OSU, score nullified by penalty, clock 07:01. PENALTY OSU Illegal Block in the Back enforced 10 yards from the MST19 to the MST29. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 20
OPP 29
+5
87.3%
Jam Griffin run for 5 yds to the MntSt 24Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 15
OPP 24
+24
89.9%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Silas Bolden for 24 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSTDrive 7INT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:1811% → 10%
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.3%
run for no gain to the MntSt 25Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
89.4%
Tommy Mellott pass complete to Treyton Pickering for 15 yds to the MntSt 40 MONTANA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Clevan Thomas) to the MntSt 23Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
89.4%
Tommy Mellott pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:19
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
89.6%
Tommy Mellott pass interceptedSimilar
Q2 5:01
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
89.6%
Tommy Mellott pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 8TD
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:4790% → 96%
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
90.0%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 3 yds to the MntSt 9Similar
Q2 4:14
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+9
95.6%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Anthony Gould for 9 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:295% → 5%
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
95.1%
Tommy Mellott pass complete to Clevan Thomas for 6 yds to the MntSt 24Similar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+2
94.9%
run for 2 yds to the MntSt 26Similar
Q2 4:08
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+1
94.9%
Sean Chambers run for 1 yd to the MntSt 27Similar
Q2 4:08
4TH & 1
OWN 27
-9
95.0%
Bryce Leighton punt for 37 yds , Anthony Gould returns for a loss of 9 yards to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q2 1:39
4TH & 1
OWN 27
-9
95.4%
Bryce Leighton punt for 37 yds , Anthony Gould returns for a loss of 9 yards to the OrgSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 10MISSED FG
11 plays · 45 yds · 1:3996% → 96%
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+26
96.2%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 26 yds to the MntSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
96.4%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 7 yds to the MntSt 40Similar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 3
OPP 40
0
96.4%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:39
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+5
96.3%
Damien Martinez run for 5 yds to the MntSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
96.4%
NOLAN, Chance pass to the right incomplete intended for DUNMORE, John broken up by WOODARD, Simeon at the MST24. PENALTY MST Pass Interference on WOODARD, Simeon enforced at the spot of the foul for 12 yards to the MST23 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
96.4%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
96.4%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Deshaun Fenwick for no gain to the MntSt 23Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
97.2%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Deshaun Fenwick for no gain to the MntSt 23Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 15
OPP 28
+46
95.9%
Everett Hayes 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSTDrive 11PUNT RETURN TD
5 plays · 19 yds · 2:194% → 2%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
96.2%
Tommy Mellott run for 14 yds to the MntSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
96.0%
Tommy Mellott run for 4 yds to the MntSt 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 43
0
95.9%
Tommy Mellott pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+1
96.0%
Tommy Mellott pass complete to Elijah Elliott for 1 yd to the MntSt 44Similar
Q3 12:41
4TH & 5
OWN 44
+80
98.3%
Bryce Leighton punt for 36 yds , Anthony Gould returns for 80 yds for a TD, (Atticus Sappington PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSTDrive 12TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:202% → 6%
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.4%
Tommy Mellott pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
98.4%
run for 11 yds to the MntSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
98.4%
run for 6 yds to the MntSt 42Similar
Q3 12:41
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+2
98.3%
run for 2 yds to the MntSt 44Similar
Q3 12:41
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+8
98.3%
Tommy Mellott pass complete to Clevan Thomas for 8 yds to the OrgSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+19
98.1%
run for 19 yds to the OrgSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+10
97.9%
run for 10 yds to the OrgSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
97.9%
Sean Chambers run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 11Similar
Q3 12:41
2ND & 2
OPP 11
+3
97.8%
Sean Chambers run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
97.9%
Tommy Mellott pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
93.8%
Sean Chambers 8 Yd Run (Blake Glessner Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 13TD
3 plays · 20 yds · 1:1897% → 99%
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
96.9%
Chance Nolan run for 8 yds to the MntSt 12Similar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+5
96.9%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 5 yds to the MntSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.3%
Damien Martinez run for 7 yds for a TD, (Atticus Sappington KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSTDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 2:381% → 0%
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+10
99.4%
run for 10 yds to the MntSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
99.4%
Tommy Mellott pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-3
99.4%
Willie Patterson run for a loss of 3 yards to the MntSt 28Similar
Q3 5:45
3RD & 13
OWN 28
-5
99.4%
MONTANA ST Penalty, False Start (JT Reed) to the MntSt 23Similar
Q3 5:45
3RD & 18
OWN 23
+2
99.4%
run for 2 yds to the MntSt 25Similar
Q3 5:45
4TH & 16
OWN 25
+33
99.4%
Bryce Leighton punt for 41 yds , Anthony Gould returns for 33 yds to the MntSt 33Similar
Q3 3:07
4TH & 16
OWN 25
+33
99.6%
Bryce Leighton punt for 41 yds , Anthony Gould returns for 33 yds to the MntSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 15TD
5 plays · 33 yds · 1:5899% → 100%
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
99.4%
Jam Griffin run for 8 yds to the MntSt 25Similar
Q3 3:07
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+7
99.4%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Jack Velling for 7 yds to the MntSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
99.4%
Silas Bolden run for 1 yd to the MntSt 17Similar
Q3 3:07
2ND & 9
OPP 17
0
99.4%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:09
3RD & 9
OPP 17
+17
99.8%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Anthony Gould for 17 yds for a TD, (Atticus Sappington KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSTDrive 16INT
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:480% → 0%
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
99.8%
Tommy Mellott pass complete to Ravi Alston for 14 yds to the MntSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
99.8%
Tommy Mellott pass interceptedSimilar
Q3 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
99.8%
Tommy Mellott pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 17TD
7 plays · 54 yds · 2:48100% → 100%
Q3 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
99.8%
Ben Gulbranson run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
99.8%
Ben Gulbranson run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+3
99.8%
Jam Griffin run for 3 yds to the MntSt 48Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+14
99.8%
Kanoa Shannon run for 14 yds to the MntSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
99.8%
Kanoa Shannon run for 3 yds to the MntSt 31Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+8
99.8%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Jimmy Valsin III for 8 yds to the MntSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
99.9%
Jam Griffin run for 23 yds for a TD, (Atticus Sappington KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSTDrive 18TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 4:380% → 0%
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+27
99.9%
Tommy Mellott pass complete to Derryk Snell for 27 yds to the OrgSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
99.9%
Tommy Mellott pass complete to Ravi Alston for 3 yds to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q4 12:33
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+2
99.9%
run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q4 12:33
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+24
99.9%
Tommy Mellott pass complete to Willie Patterson for 24 yds to the OrgSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
99.9%
Sean Chambers run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 11Similar
Q4 12:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
-1
99.9%
Marqui Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 12Similar
Q4 12:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
+11
99.9%
run for 11 yds to the OrgSt 1Similar
Q4 7:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.8%
Sean Chambers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Blake Glessner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 19TD
10 plays · 64 yds · 4:51100% → 100%
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.9%
Kanoa Shannon run for no gain to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+14
99.9%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Jesiah Irish for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
50
+10
99.9%
Ben Gulbranson run for 10 yds to the MntSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
99.9%
Ben Gulbranson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
99.9%
Kanoa Shannon run for no gain to the MntSt 40Similar
Q4 7:53
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+26
99.9%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to John Dunmore for 26 yds to the MntSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
99.9%
Kanoa Shannon run for 3 yds to the MntSt 13 Kanoa Shannon fumbled, recovered by OrgStSimilar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+3
99.9%
Jam Griffin run for 3 yds to the MntSt 10Similar
Q4 7:53
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+7
99.9%
Jam Griffin run for 7 yds to the MntSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
100.0%
Kanoa Shannon run for 3 yds for a TD, (Atticus Sappington KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSTDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:250% → 0%
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
100.0%
Elijah Elliott run for 1 yd to the MntSt 26Similar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
100.0%
Elijah Elliott run for 3 yds to the MntSt 29Similar
Q4 3:02
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
100.0%
Tommy Mellott pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:02
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
100.0%
Bryce Leighton punt for 31 ydsSimilar
Q4 1:37
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
100.0%
Bryce Leighton punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:14
Chance Nolan pass complete to Anthony Gould for 9 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes PAT MISSED)
+5.6
TD · Q3 7:21
Sean Chambers 8 Yd Run (Blake Glessner Kick)
-4.1
TD · Q1 5:19
Sean Chambers run for 7 yds for a TD, (Blake Glessner KICK)
-2.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com