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BYU

BYU 20 at Oregon 41

ORE
2022 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2022 · Autzen Stadium
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Win probability · ORE
modelORE aheadBYU aheadconfidence bandkey playORE scoreBYU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:14 · Jaren Hall run for 5 yds to the Oregn 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorBlowout margin
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 101Home team on offense+30.3Score differential+25.9Garbage-time factor+8.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.9Pregame prior+2.4Blowout margin+13.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:53: Isaac Rex 28 Yd pass from Jaren Hall (Jake Oldroyd Kick) — BYU win probability +5.5 pts (now 43%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:44: Bo Nix 2 Yd Run (Camden Lewis Kick) — ORE win probability +7.2 pts (now 68%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:24: Terrance Ferguson 15 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick) — ORE win probability +8.7 pts (now 85%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:54: Bo Nix 6 Yd Run (Camden Lewis Kick) — ORE win probability +9.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:21: Terrance Ferguson 9 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick) — ORE win probability +5.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORE made the numbers' call on 7 of 8BYU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 12:23BYU 4th & 7 at ORE 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    39.3%−<0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    39.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:44BYU 4th & 5 at BYU 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:26ORE 4th & 9 at BYU 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.2%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.5%
    88% to make
    Punt
    62.2%−2.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:57BYU 4th & 8 at ORE 21, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.6%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.3%
    74% to make
    Punt
    24.7%−4.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:57ORE 4th & 1 at ORE 30, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    69.5%−1.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:41ORE 4th & 2 at BYU 39, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    71.6%−1.6
    36% to make
    Punt
    71.3%−1.9
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:14BYU 4th & 1 at BYU 36, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.3%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:14BYU 4th & 10 at ORE 40, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    0.9%−<0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:38BYU 4th & 10 at ORE 40, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    0.7%−<0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:39ORE 4th & 6 at ORE 39, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:03BYU 4th & 5 at BYU 17, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:03ORE 4th & 15 at ORE 26, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:49ORE 4th & 15 at ORE 26, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:39ORE 4th & 1 at BYU 26, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    96.0%−0.9
    64% to make
    Punt
    94.0%−2.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:16ORE 4th & 3 at BYU 7, up 18
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.4%−0.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    97.4%−1.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:00BYU 4th & 5 at ORE 14, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    0.9%
    84% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORE made the numbers' call on 5 of 5BYU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 10:21ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:53BYU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:44ORE Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:24ORE Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:54ORE Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:21ORE Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:05BYU Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 10:39BYU Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    3.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    3.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BYUDrive 1DOWNS
5 plays · 39 yds · 2:3744% → 44%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+35
56.4%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Chase Roberts for 35 yds to the Oregn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-4
56.4%
Jaren Hall sacked by Jordon Riley and Brandon Dorlus for a loss of 4 yards to the Oregn 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 44
+4
56.4%
Christopher Brooks run for 4 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+3
56.4%
Christopher Brooks run for 3 yds to the Oregn 37Similar
Q1 12:23
4TH & 7
OPP 37
+1
56.5%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Kody Epps for 1 yd to the Oregn 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 2TD
5 plays · 64 yds · 2:0257% → 59%
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+26
56.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Kris Hutson for 26 yds to the BYU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
57.0%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BYU 43Similar
Q1 12:23
1ST & 15
OPP 43
+5
56.9%
Mar'Keise Irving run for 5 yds to the BYU 38Similar
Q1 12:23
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+36
57.0%
Mar'Keise Irving run for 36 yds to the BYU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
59.1%
Bo Nix 2 Yd Run (Camden Lewis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3742% → 41%
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
58.3%
Christopher Brooks run for 3 yds to the BYU 28Similar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
58.3%
Chase Roberts run for 2 yds to the BYU 30Similar
Q1 10:21
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
58.4%
Jaren Hall pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:44
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
59.4%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 4FG
11 plays · 39 yds · 4:1860% → 62%
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
59.8%
Noah Whittington run for 6 yds to the BYU 43Similar
Q1 8:44
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+14
59.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Cam McCormick for 14 yds to the BYU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
59.9%
Noah Whittington run for 9 yds to the BYU 20Similar
Q1 8:44
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+9
59.9%
NIX, Bo pass to the right incomplete intended for WHITTINGTON, Noah thrown to the BYU5. PENALTY BYU Pass Interference on JEUDY-LALLY, Gabe enforced at the spot of the foul for 9 yards to the BYU11 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-3
59.9%
Noah Whittington run for a loss of 3 yards to the BYU 14Similar
Q1 8:44
2ND & 13
OPP 14
-5
59.8%
NIX, Bo pass to the right complete for 9 yards to COTA, Chase caught at the BYU6 and advanced to the BYU5 (GAGNIER, Tavita;JEUDY-LALLY, Gabe). PENALTY ORE Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on HARPER II, Marcus enforced 5 yards from the BYU14 to the BYU19 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:44
2ND & 18
OPP 19
+5
59.8%
NIX, Bo pass up the middle incomplete intended for FERGUSON, Terrance thrown to the BYU9. PENALTY BYU Offsides on FAUATEA, Lorenzo enforced 5 yards from the BYU19 to the BYU14 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:44
2ND & 13
OPP 14
+3
59.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Noah Whittington for 3 yds to the BYU 11Similar
Q1 8:44
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+6
59.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Jordan James for 6 yds to the BYU 5Similar
Q1 8:44
4TH & 4
OPP 5
-5
59.4%
OREGON Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the BYU 10Similar
Q1 4:26
4TH & 9
OPP 10
+28
61.9%
Camden Lewis 28 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 5TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:3339% → 43%
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
60.7%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Kody Epps for 1 yd to the BYU 26Similar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
62.3%
Jaren Hall run for 6 yds to the BYU 32Similar
Q1 4:26
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
62.2%
Lopini Katoa run for 5 yds to the BYU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
62.0%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 8 yds to the BYU 45Similar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 2
OWN 45
0
61.6%
Lopini Katoa run for no gain to the BYU 45Similar
Q1 4:26
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+3
61.6%
Lopini Katoa run for 3 yds to the BYU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
61.6%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Kody Epps for 9 yds to the Oregn 43Similar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+11
61.3%
Christopher Brooks run for 11 yds to the Oregn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
61.0%
Christopher Brooks run for 4 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
62.5%
Christopher Brooks run for 4 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+28
57.0%
Isaac Rex 28 Yd pass from Jaren Hall (Jake Oldroyd Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 6TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:0959% → 68%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
59.1%
Mar'Keise Irving run for 3 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
59.2%
Bo Nix run for 6 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
59.3%
Bo Nix run for 2 yds to the Oregn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
59.5%
Mar'Keise Irving run for 6 yds to the Oregn 42Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+3
60.2%
Mar'Keise Irving run for 3 yds to the Oregn 45Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+3
60.0%
Jordan James run for 3 yds to the Oregn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+50
60.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 50 yds to the BYU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
67.5%
Bo Nix 2 Yd Run (Camden Lewis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 7MISSED FG
14 plays · 52 yds · 5:4334% → 30%
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
65.8%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Masen Wake for 4 yds to the BYU 31Similar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 6
OWN 31
-10
65.5%
HALL, Jaren pass to the left complete for 14 yards to BROOKS, Christopher caught at the BYU31 and advanced to the BYU45 (SEWELL, Noah), out of bounds. PENALTY BYU Holding on REX, Isaac enforced 10 yards from the BYU31 to the BYU21 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 16
OWN 21
+12
66.2%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Chase Roberts for 12 yds to the BYU 33Similar
Q2 11:40
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+16
65.8%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Kody Epps for 16 yds to the BYU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
64.6%
Christopher Brooks run for no gain to the BYU 49Similar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+9
66.7%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Brayden Cosper for 9 yds to the Oregn 42Similar
Q2 11:40
3RD & 1
OPP 42
-10
65.6%
BROOKS, Christopher rush to the right for a gain of 7 yards to the ORE35 (BRIDGES, Trikweze). PENALTY BYU Holding on BARRINGTON, Campbell enforced 10 yards from the ORE42 to the BYU48 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:40
3RD & 11
OWN 48
+17
67.5%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Brayden Cosper for 17 yds to the Oregn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
65.1%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Brayden Cosper for 12 yds to the Oregn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
64.9%
Jaren Hall pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+2
65.1%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Chase Roberts for 2 yds to the Oregn 21Similar
Q2 11:40
3RD & 8
OPP 21
0
65.8%
Jaren Hall pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:57
4TH & 8
OPP 21
+38
70.3%
Jake Oldroyd 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 8TD
17 plays · 79 yds · 5:3371% → 85%
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
70.8%
Noah Whittington run for 4 yds to the Oregn 25Similar
Q2 5:57
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+5
71.0%
Bo Nix pass complete to Cam McCormick for 5 yds to the Oregn 30Similar
Q2 5:57
3RD & 1
OWN 30
0
70.9%
Bo Nix run for no gain to the Oregn 30Similar
Q2 5:57
4TH & 1
OWN 30
+2
69.9%
Jordan James run for 2 yds to the Oregn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
71.0%
Bo Nix run for 4 yds to the Oregn 36Similar
Q2 5:57
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+6
71.6%
Noah Whittington run for 6 yds to the Oregn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+6
73.4%
Noah Whittington run for 6 yds to the Oregn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
73.8%
Jordan James run for 11 yds to the BYU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
74.0%
Jordan James run for 5 yds to the BYU 42Similar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 5
OPP 42
0
74.3%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:41
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+3
73.5%
Sean Dollars run for 3 yds to the BYU 39Similar
Q2 2:41
4TH & 2
OPP 39
+8
72.6%
Jordan James run for 8 yds to the BYU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+16
74.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Chase Cota for 16 yds to the BYU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+16
76.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Chase Cota for 16 yds to the BYU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
85.4%
Terrance Ferguson 15 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 9END OF HALF
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:2413% → 13%
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
87.1%
Lopini Katoa run for 2 yds to the BYU 27Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
87.0%
Lopini Katoa run for 2 yds to the BYU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 10TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0683% → 93%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
83.3%
Mar'Keise Irving run for 11 yds to the Oregn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+24
83.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 24 yds to the BYU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
84.0%
Mar'Keise Irving run for no gain to the BYU 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+22
83.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Moliki Matavao for 22 yds to the BYU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
84.0%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+11
84.0%
Noah Whittington run for 11 yds to the BYU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
84.0%
Noah Whittington run for 1 yd to the BYU 6Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
84.0%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
93.3%
Bo Nix 6 Yd Run (Camden Lewis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 11DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:357% → 6%
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
92.6%
Jaren Hall run for 2 yds to the BYU 29Similar
Q3 11:49
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+2
92.5%
Jaren Hall run for 2 yds to the BYU 31Similar
Q3 11:49
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+5
92.6%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Christopher Brooks for 5 yds to the BYU 36Similar
Q3 10:14
4TH & 1
OWN 36
-1
93.8%
Christopher Brooks run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 12TD
4 plays · 35 yds · 1:5394% → 99%
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+22
94.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Chase Cota for 22 yds to the BYU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
94.1%
Bo Nix run for 1 yd to the BYU 12Similar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+3
94.1%
Noah Whittington run for 3 yds to the BYU 9Similar
Q3 8:21
3RD & 6
OPP 9
+9
99.2%
Terrance Ferguson 9 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 13DOWNS
7 plays · 37 yds · 1:361% → 1%
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+14
99.0%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Keanu Hill for 14 yds to the BYU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+18
99.0%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Christopher Brooks for 18 yds to the Oregn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
98.9%
Jaren Hall pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
98.9%
Jaren Hall pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:14
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
99.0%
Jaren Hall pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:14
4TH & 10
OPP 40
+5
99.0%
Jaren Hall run for 5 yds to the Oregn 35Similar
Q3 6:38
4TH & 10
OPP 40
+5
99.2%
Jaren Hall run for 5 yds to the Oregn 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5999% → 99%
Q3 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
99.4%
Jordan James run for 4 yds to the Oregn 39Similar
Q3 6:38
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
99.4%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:38
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
99.4%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:39
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
99.4%
Adam Barry punt for 39 yds, downed at the BYU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:361% → 1%
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
99.0%
Lopini Katoa run for 2 yds to the BYU 14Similar
Q3 5:39
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+3
99.0%
Jaren Hall run for 3 yds to the BYU 17Similar
Q3 5:39
3RD & 5
OWN 17
0
99.0%
Jaren Hall pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:03
4TH & 5
OWN 17
0
99.3%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 45 yds , returns for no gain to the Oregn 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · -5 yds · 2:14100% → 100%
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-22
99.5%
Seven McGee run for a loss of 22 yards to the Oregn 5 Seven McGee fumbled, recovered by Oregn Mar'Keise IrvingSimilar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 36
OWN 5
+11
99.3%
Mar'Keise Irving run for 11 yds to the Oregn 16Similar
Q3 4:03
3RD & 25
OWN 16
+5
99.4%
THOMPSON, Ty pass to the right incomplete intended for HUTSON, Kris thrown to the ORE35. PENALTY BYU Offsides on SUMMERS, Gabe enforced 5 yards from the ORE16 to the ORE21 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:03
3RD & 20
OWN 21
+5
99.5%
Ty Thompson pass complete to Patrick Herbert for 5 yds to the Oregn 26Similar
Q3 4:03
4TH & 15
OWN 26
0
99.5%
Adam Barry punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Hobbs Nyberg at the BYU 45Similar
Q3 1:49
4TH & 15
OWN 26
0
99.6%
Adam Barry punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Hobbs Nyberg at the BYU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 17TD
9 plays · 55 yds · 2:440% → 2%
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
99.7%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Dallin Holker for 7 yds to the Oregn 48Similar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+2
99.7%
Jaren Hall run for 2 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
Q3 1:49
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+3
99.6%
Jaren Hall run for 3 yds to the Oregn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
99.7%
Jaren Hall pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-2
99.7%
Christopher Brooks run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 45Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-2
99.8%
Christopher Brooks run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 45
+17
99.8%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Keanu Hill for 17 yds to the Oregn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+10
99.7%
HALL, Jaren pass to the right incomplete intended for ROBERTS, Chase thrown to the ORE0. PENALTY ORE Holding on BRIDGES, Trikweze enforced 10 yards from the ORE28 to the ORE18 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
98.0%
Kody Epps 18 Yd pass from Jaren Hall (Jake Oldroyd Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 18INT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:2998% → 99%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
98.4%
OREGON Penalty, Illegal Substitution (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 27Similar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 15
OWN 27
+3
98.4%
Mar'Keise Irving run for 3 yds to the Oregn 30Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 12
OWN 30
-4
98.4%
Mar'Keise Irving run for a loss of 4 yards to the Oregn 26Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 16
OWN 26
0
98.4%
Ty Thompson pass interceptedSimilar
Q4 12:31
3RD & 16
OWN 26
0
98.5%
Ty Thompson pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 19TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 1:522% → 5%
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
98.2%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Masen Wake for 4 yds to the Oregn 21Similar
Q4 12:31
2ND & 6
OPP 21
0
98.2%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Keanu Hill for no gain to the Oregn 21Similar
Q4 12:31
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+11
98.4%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Chase Roberts for 11 yds to the Oregn 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
98.2%
HALL, Jaren pass to the left incomplete intended for ROBERTS, Chase thrown to the ORE0. PENALTY ORE Pass Interference on MANNING, Dontae enforced at the spot of the foul for 8 yards to the ORE2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
95.4%
Christopher Brooks 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 20FG
14 plays · 68 yds · 8:2397% → 100%
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
97.2%
Mar'Keise Irving run for 13 yds to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
97.4%
Mar'Keise Irving run for 7 yds to the Oregn 45Similar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+9
97.4%
Mar'Keise Irving run for 9 yds to the BYU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
97.5%
Noah Whittington run for 11 yds to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
97.5%
Noah Whittington run for no gain to the BYU 35Similar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-5
97.5%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (Alex Forsyth) to the BYU 40Similar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 15
OPP 40
+2
97.4%
Noah Whittington run for 2 yds to the BYU 38Similar
Q4 10:39
3RD & 13
OPP 38
+12
97.3%
Bo Nix run for 12 yds to the BYU 26Similar
Q4 10:39
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+12
97.3%
Noah Whittington run for 12 yds to the BYU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-2
97.5%
Mar'Keise Irving run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 16Similar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 12
OPP 16
+4
97.5%
Noah Whittington run for 4 yds to the BYU 12Similar
Q4 10:39
3RD & 8
OPP 12
-5
97.5%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (Alex Forsyth) to the BYU 17Similar
Q4 10:39
3RD & 13
OPP 17
+10
97.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 10 yds to the BYU 7Similar
Q4 2:16
4TH & 3
OPP 7
+25
99.5%
Camden Lewis 25 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 21DOWNS
14 plays · 61 yds · 2:161% → 0%
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.5%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Jaren Hall for 8 yds to the BYU 33Similar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
99.4%
Christopher Brooks run for 4 yds to the BYU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
99.4%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Isaac Rex for 4 yds to the BYU 41Similar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
99.4%
Jaren Hall pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:16
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+6
99.5%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Dallin Holker for 6 yds to the BYU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
99.4%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Keanu Hill for 14 yds to the Oregn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
99.4%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Dallin Holker for 7 yds to the Oregn 32Similar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+13
99.4%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Dallin Holker for 13 yds to the Oregn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
99.4%
Jaren Hall pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+5
99.4%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Dallin Holker for 5 yds to the Oregn 14Similar
Q4 2:16
3RD & 5
OPP 14
0
99.7%
Jaren Hall pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 14
0
99.8%
Jaren Hall pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:54
Bo Nix 6 Yd Run (Camden Lewis Kick)
+9.3
TD · Q2 0:24
Terrance Ferguson 15 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick)
+8.7
TD · Q2 11:44
Bo Nix 2 Yd Run (Camden Lewis Kick)
+7.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com