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COLO

Colorado 7 at Minnesota 49

MINN
2022 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2022 · Huntington Bank Stadium
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Win probability · MINN
modelMINN aheadCOLO aheadconfidence bandkey playMINN scoreCOLO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:55 · Athan Kaliakmanis sacked by Aubrey Smith for a loss of 4 yards to the Colo 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 142Pregame prior+10.7Home team on offense+33.7Score differential+28.9Blowout margin+15.7Garbage-time factor+12.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+11.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 9:32: Mohamed Ibrahim run for 5 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK) — COLO win probability +0.6 pts (now 5%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 8:44: Mohamed Ibrahim run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK) — MINN win probability +0.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 9:08: Mohamed Ibrahim run for 18 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK) — MINN win probability +2.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:37: Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 39 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK) — MINN win probability +1.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:08: Tanner Morgan pass complete to Dylan Wright for 16 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK) — MINN win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MINN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3COLO made the numbers' call on 10 of 14
  1. Q1 6:29COLO 4th & 6 at COLO 42, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:08COLO 4th & 5 at COLO 19, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.5%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.6%
    average punt
  3. Q2 9:08COLO 4th & 5 at COLO 30, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.1%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:09COLO 4th & 5 at COLO 30, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.1%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:02MINN 4th & 11 at MINN 25, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:45COLO 4th & 19 at MINN 39, down 21
    Close callPunted · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    2.9%
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    2.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:37COLO 4th & 18 at COLO 14, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−1.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:05COLO 4th & 18 at COLO 14, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.4%−1.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00COLO 4th & 1 at midfield, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.5%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:15COLO 4th & 16 at MINN 40, down 35
    Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%−<0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    0.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:44COLO 4th & 4 at COLO 31, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:55MINN 4th & 4 at COLO 32, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:10MINN 4th & 4 at COLO 32, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    100.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:10COLO 4th & 1 at COLO 45, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:33COLO 4th & 2 at MINN 46, down 42
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    23% to make
    Punt
    0.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:33COLO 4th & 10 at MINN 31, down 42
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%
    54% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:00COLO 4th & 10 at MINN 31, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MINN made the numbers' call on 7 of 7COLO made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 9:32MINN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:44MINN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:08MINN Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:37MINN Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:08MINN Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:46MINN Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:14MINN Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:55COLO Touchdown, down 43 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MINNDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 5:2896% → 96%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
96.1%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 19 yds to the Minn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
96.1%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for 13 yds to the Colo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
96.1%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 15 yds to the Colo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
96.1%
Trey Potts run for 4 yds to the Colo 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+3
96.1%
Trey Potts run for 3 yds to the Colo 21Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+9
96.1%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 9 yds to the Colo 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
96.1%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 2 yds to the Colo 10Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+5
96.1%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 5 yds to the Colo 5Similar
Q1 9:32
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+5
95.5%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 5 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 2FUMBLE
1 play · -14 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-14
95.4%
J.T. Shrout sacked for a loss of 14 yards to the Colo 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 3TD
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:4296% → 96%
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
95.6%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 9 yds to the Colo 2Similar
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
95.5%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 9 yds to the Colo 2Similar
Q1 8:44
2ND & 1
OPP 2
+2
96.0%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 2:154% → 4%
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
95.8%
Deion Smith run for 1 yd to the Colo 26Similar
Q1 8:44
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+12
95.8%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Daniel Arias for 12 yds to the Colo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
95.7%
Deion Smith run for 6 yds to the Colo 44Similar
Q1 8:44
2ND & 4
OWN 44
-5
95.7%
COLORADO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Colo 39Similar
Q1 8:44
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+3
95.7%
Deion Smith run for 3 yds to the Colo 42Similar
Q1 6:43
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+3
95.7%
Deion Smith run for 3 yds to the Colo 42Similar
Q1 6:43
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
95.7%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:29
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
95.7%
Ashton Logan punt for 36 yds , Quentin Redding returns for no gain to the Minn 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 5INT
10 plays · 53 yds · 6:0196% → 96%
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-4
95.8%
Trey Potts run for a loss of 4 yards to the Minn 18Similar
Q1 6:29
2ND & 14
OWN 18
-7
95.7%
Tanner Morgan sacked by Josh Chandler-Semedo for a loss of 7 yards to the Minn 11Similar
Q1 6:29
3RD & 21
OWN 11
+34
95.7%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 34 yds to the Minn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
95.9%
Trey Potts run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:29
2ND & 5
50
+15
95.9%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Dylan Wright for 15 yds to the Colo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
95.9%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 4 yds to the Colo 31Similar
Q1 6:29
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+2
95.9%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 2 yds to the Colo 29Similar
Q1 6:29
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+9
95.8%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 9 yds to the Colo 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
95.9%
MORGAN, Tanner pass to the right complete for 10 yards to AUTMAN-BELL, Chris caught at the COL10 and advanced to the COL10 (MACK, Jeremy), out of bounds. PENALTY UMN Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on CARROLL, Quinn enforced 5 yards from the COL20 to the COL25 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 0:28
1ST & 15
OPP 25
0
95.6%
Tanner Morgan pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:205% → 5%
Q1 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
95.2%
Charlie Offerdahl run for 6 yds to the Colo 20Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 20
-5
95.2%
COLORADO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Colo 15Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+4
95.2%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Daniel Arias for 4 yds to the Colo 19Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 19
0
95.2%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:08
4TH & 5
OWN 19
0
95.1%
Ashton Logan punt for 38 yds, downed at the Minn 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 7TD
8 plays · 57 yds · 5:0096% → 98%
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
95.5%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 4 yds to the Minn 47Similar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+10
95.5%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 10 yds to the Colo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
95.5%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 7 yds to the Colo 36Similar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+7
95.5%
Trey Potts run for 7 yds to the Colo 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
95.6%
Trey Potts run for 7 yds to the Colo 22Similar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+2
95.6%
Trey Potts run for 2 yds to the Colo 20Similar
Q2 14:08
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+2
95.5%
Tanner Morgan run for 2 yds to the Colo 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
97.8%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 18 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:593% → 3%
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.2%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
97.2%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:08
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
97.2%
Brendon Lewis run for 5 yds to the Colo 30Similar
Q2 9:08
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
97.2%
Ashton Logan punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Quentin Redding at the Minn 26Similar
Q2 8:09
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
97.2%
Ashton Logan punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Quentin Redding at the Minn 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:0798% → 98%
Q2 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
97.6%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 4 yds to the Minn 30Similar
Q2 8:09
2ND & 6
OWN 30
0
97.6%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:09
3RD & 6
OWN 30
0
97.5%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:09
4TH & 6
OWN 30
-5
97.4%
MINNESOTA Penalty, False Start (Tyler Nubin) to the Minn 25Similar
Q2 7:02
4TH & 11
OWN 25
0
97.5%
Mark Crawford punt for 24 yds, downed at the Minn 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 2:173% → 3%
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
96.9%
Deion Smith run for 1 yd to the Minn 48Similar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 9
OPP 48
0
97.0%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:02
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+18
97.0%
Deion Smith run for 18 yds to the Minn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
96.7%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-9
96.7%
J.T. Shrout sacked by Danny Striggow for a loss of 9 yards to the Minn 39Similar
Q2 7:02
3RD & 19
OPP 39
0
97.1%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:45
4TH & 19
OPP 39
0
97.2%
Ashton Logan punt for 30 yds, downed at the Minn 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 11TD
8 plays · 91 yds · 3:0898% → 99%
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-2
97.8%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 7Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 12
OWN 7
+32
97.8%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 32 yds to the Minn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
97.9%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+8
97.9%
Trey Potts run for 8 yds to the Minn 47Similar
Q2 4:45
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+2
97.8%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 2 yds to the Minn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
97.9%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 8 yds to the Colo 43Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+4
97.9%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 4 yds to the Colo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
99.3%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 39 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:321% → 1%
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
99.4%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+2
99.4%
Brendon Lewis run for 2 yds to the Colo 24Similar
Q2 1:37
3RD & 8
OWN 24
-9
99.4%
Brendon Lewis run for a loss of 9 yards to the Colo 14Similar
Q2 1:37
4TH & 18
OWN 14
+8
99.4%
Ashton Logan punt for 47 yds , Quentin Redding returns for 8 yds to the Minn 47Similar
Q2 1:05
4TH & 18
OWN 14
+8
99.4%
Ashton Logan punt for 47 yds , Quentin Redding returns for 8 yds to the Minn 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 13TD
8 plays · 53 yds · 0:5799% → 100%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
99.3%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 4 yds to the Colo 49Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 6
OPP 49
0
99.3%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+12
99.3%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for 12 yds to the Colo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
99.3%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+9
99.3%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for 9 yds to the Colo 28Similar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+12
99.3%
Trey Potts run for 12 yds to the Colo 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
99.4%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+16
99.5%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Dylan Wright for 16 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 14 yds · 0:081% → 1%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
99.5%
Charlie Offerdahl run for 14 yds to the Colo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
99.5%
Charlie Offerdahl run for 14 yds to the Colo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 15DOWNS
12 plays · 35 yds · 4:451% → 0%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
99.5%
Maurice Bell run for 16 yds to the Colo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
99.5%
Jayle Stacks run for 1 yd to the Colo 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+2
99.5%
Jayle Stacks run for 2 yds to the Colo 44Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+6
99.5%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Daniel Arias for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
50
+2
99.4%
Jayle Stacks run for 2 yds to the Minn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
99.5%
Jayle Stacks run for 4 yds to the Minn 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+10
99.4%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Montana Lemonious-Craig for 10 yds to the Minn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
99.4%
Jayle Stacks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 35Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 35
-10
99.4%
SMITH, Deion rush to the left for a loss of 1 yard to the UMN36 (SORI-MARIN, Mariano;OLIVER, Braelen). PENALTY COL Holding on FILLIP, Frank enforced 10 yards from the UMN35 to the UMN45 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 21
OPP 45
+5
99.5%
Deion Smith run for 5 yds to the Minn 40Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 16
OPP 40
0
99.5%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:15
4TH & 16
OPP 40
0
99.7%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 16TD
10 plays · 60 yds · 6:29100% → 100%
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
99.7%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 5 yds to the Minn 45Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+3
99.7%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 3 yds to the Minn 48Similar
Q3 10:15
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+15
99.7%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 15 yds to the Colo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
99.7%
Trey Potts run for 6 yds to the Colo 31Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+3
99.7%
Trey Potts run for 3 yds to the Colo 28Similar
Q3 10:15
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+4
99.7%
Tanner Morgan run for 4 yds to the Colo 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+18
99.7%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 18 yds to the Colo 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
99.7%
Trey Potts run for 1 yd to the Colo 5Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-3
99.7%
Trey Potts run for a loss of 3 yards to the Colo 8Similar
Q3 3:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.8%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Clay Geary for 8 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:020% → 0%
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Jayle Stacks run for no gain to the Colo 25Similar
Q3 3:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.8%
Brendon Lewis run for 4 yds to the Colo 29Similar
Q3 3:46
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+2
99.8%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jayle Stacks for 2 yds to the Colo 31Similar
Q3 1:44
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+6
99.9%
Ashton Logan punt for 42 yds , Quentin Redding returns for 6 yds to the Minn 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 18TD
8 plays · 67 yds · 2:30100% → 100%
Q3 1:44
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+13
99.8%
Bryce Williams run for 13 yds to the Colo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+16
99.8%
Bryce Williams run for 16 yds to the Colo 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
99.8%
Bryce Williams run for 7 yds to the Minn 40Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+16
99.9%
Bryce Williams run for 16 yds to the Colo 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
99.9%
Bryce Williams run for 7 yds to the Minn 40Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+13
99.9%
Bryce Williams run for 13 yds to the Colo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
99.9%
Cole Kramer pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 9 yds to the Colo 22Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+22
99.9%
Bryce Williams run for 22 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 19TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:190% → 0%
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
99.9%
Charlie Offerdahl run for 13 yds to the Colo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
99.9%
Charlie Offerdahl run for 11 yds to the Colo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
99.9%
Charlie Offerdahl run for 9 yds to the Minn 42Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+2
99.9%
Charlie Offerdahl run for 2 yds to the Minn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
99.9%
Deion Smith run for 5 yds to the Minn 35Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+13
99.9%
Deion Smith run for 13 yds to the Minn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+13
99.9%
Deion Smith run for 13 yds to the Minn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
99.9%
Deion Smith run for 1 yd to the Minn 21Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+17
99.9%
Deion Smith run for 17 yds to the Minn 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.9%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Austin Smith for 4 yds for a TD, (Cole Becker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 20DOWNS
12 plays · 39 yds · 8:55100% → 100%
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis run for 9 yds to the Minn 34Similar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
99.9%
Preston Jelen run for no gain to the Minn 34Similar
Q4 8:55
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
99.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis run for 2 yds to the Minn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+8
99.9%
Preston Jelen run for 8 yds to the Minn 44Similar
Q4 8:55
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+15
99.9%
COLORADO Penalty, Personal Foul (Trevor Woods) to the Colo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
99.9%
Preston Jelen run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 39Similar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 11
OPP 39
+4
99.9%
Jordan Nubin run for 4 yds to the Colo 35Similar
Q4 8:55
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+3
99.9%
Jordan Nubin run for 3 yds to the Colo 32Similar
Q4 8:55
4TH & 4
OPP 32
-4
99.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis sacked by Aubrey Smith for a loss of 4 yards to the Colo 36Similar
Q4 4:10
4TH & 4
OPP 32
-4
99.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis sacked by Aubrey Smith for a loss of 4 yards to the Colo 36Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
100.0%
Athan Kaliakmanis run for 9 yds to the Minn 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 21END OF GAME
15 plays · 61 yds · 4:100% → 0%
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
99.9%
Owen McCown sacked by Lorenza Surgers for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 35Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+2
100.0%
Owen McCown run for 2 yds to the Colo 37Similar
Q4 4:10
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+8
99.9%
Owen McCown run for 8 yds to the Colo 45Similar
Q4 4:10
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+1
99.9%
Charlie Offerdahl run for 1 yd to the Colo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
99.9%
Owen McCown pass complete to Erik Olsen for 3 yds to the Colo 49Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+6
99.9%
Owen McCown pass complete to Erik Olsen for 6 yds to the Minn 45Similar
Q4 4:10
3RD & 1
OPP 45
-1
99.9%
Charlie Offerdahl run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 46Similar
Q4 0:33
3RD & 1
OPP 45
-1
100.0%
Charlie Offerdahl run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 46Similar
Q4 0:33
4TH & 2
OPP 46
+15
100.0%
Owen McCown pass complete to Caleb Fauria for 15 yds to the Minn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
100.0%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:33
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
100.0%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:33
3RD & 10
OPP 31
0
100.0%
Owen McCown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:33
4TH & 10
OPP 31
+28
100.0%
Owen McCown pass complete to Jaylon Jackson for 28 yds to the Minn 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 10
OPP 31
+28
100.0%
Owen McCown pass complete to Jaylon Jackson for 28 yds to the Minn 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:08
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 18 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK)
+2.3
TD · Q2 1:37
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 39 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK)
+1.4
TD · Q1 9:32
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 5 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK)
-0.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com