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CAL

California 17 at Notre Dame 24

ND
2022 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2022 · Notre Dame Stadium
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Win probability · ND
modelND aheadCAL aheadconfidence bandkey playND scoreCAL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:30 · Jack Plummer sacked by Isaiah Foskey for a loss of 8 yards to the NDame 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 146Pregame prior+4.4Home team on offense+12.0Garbage-time factor+3.4Score differential+3.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.1Blowout margin+1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:14: A. Estime run for 1 yd for a TD, (B. Grupe KICK) — ND win probability +9.9 pts (now 81%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:48: J. Plummer run for 1 yd for a TD, (D. Longhetto KICK) — CAL win probability +19.1 pts (now 46%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 4:48: Chris Tyree run for 7 yds to the NDame 32 — ND win probability +6.8 pts (now 61%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 14:48: Blake Grupe 47 Yd Field Goal — ND win probability +6.4 pts (now 68%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:16: D. Pyne pass,to M. Mayer for 6 yds for a TD, (B. Grupe KICK) — ND win probability +20.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 4 of 10CAL made the numbers' call on 11 of 16
  1. Q1 13:17ND 4th & 15 at ND 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.2%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:59CAL 4th & 3 at CAL 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:51ND 4th & 2 at ND 15, tied
    Close callPunted · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:57CAL 4th & 5 at CAL 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:52ND 4th & 8 at ND 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.3%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.5%
    average punt
  6. Q1 5:37CAL 4th & 8 at CAL 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.7%
    average punt
  7. Q1 4:42ND 4th & 5 at ND 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.4%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.6%
    average punt
  8. Q1 0:16CAL 4th & 7 at ND 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.5%
    62% to make
    Punt
    22.1%−1.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:11CAL 4th & 6 at ND 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    24.5%−4.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:00ND 4th & 10 at CAL 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.5%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    63.5%−2.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    65.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 14:53CAL 4th & 18 at CAL 16, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%−3.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:14CAL 4th & 18 at CAL 16, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%−3.6
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:48ND 4th & 5 at CAL 29, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.1%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    46.4%−9.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:48CAL 4th & 14 at CAL 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−6.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:02CAL 4th & 14 at CAL 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%−7.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:16CAL 4th & 8 at ND 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.8%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    15.7%−0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    14.4%−1.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:16CAL 4th & 10 at ND 22, down 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 3.8 ptsWent for it · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.3%−3.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    18.1%
    72% to make
    Punt
    6.8%−11.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:30CAL 4th & 10 at ND 22, down 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 3.5 ptsWent for it · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.7%−3.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    15.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    5.1%−10.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:56ND 4th & 4 at ND 47, up 7
    Close callPunted · 90.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.4%−0.5
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:53ND 4th & 4 at ND 47, up 7
    Close callPunted · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.3%−0.4
    average punt
  21. Q4 3:53CAL 4th & 15 at CAL 2, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%−1.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.4%
    average punt
  22. Q4 2:44CAL 4th & 15 at CAL 2, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%−0.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.5%
    average punt
  23. Q4 2:40ND 4th & 11 at CAL 43, up 7
    Close callPunted · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.8%
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    92.5%−0.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.7%−0.1
    average punt
  24. Q4 1:03ND 4th & 11 at CAL 43, up 7
    Close callPunted · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    94.5%
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  25. Q4 0:05CAL 4th & 13 at ND 35, down 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 5.0 ptsWent for it · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.7%−5.0
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    15.7%
    45% to make
    Punt
    8.8%−6.9
    average punt
  26. Q4 0:00CAL 4th & 13 at ND 35, down 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 5.0 ptsWent for it · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.7%−5.0
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    15.7%
    45% to make
    Punt
    8.8%−7.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 3 of 3CAL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 14:27CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:54ND Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:14ND Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:48CAL Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:16ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.7%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:4385% → 84%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.8%
Drew Pyne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
84.8%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Chris Tyree for 9 yds to the NDame 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-5
84.8%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Braden Lenzy) to the NDame 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-9
84.8%
Drew Pyne sacked by Jackson Sirmon for a loss of 9 yards to the NDame 20Similar
Q1 13:17
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+17
84.2%
Jon Sot punt for 57 yds , Jeremiah Hunter returns for 17 yds to the Cal 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1816% → 16%
Q1 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
84.2%
Jaydn Ott run for 7 yds to the Cal 47Similar
Q1 13:17
2ND & 3
OWN 47
0
84.2%
Jaydn Ott run for no gain to the Cal 47Similar
Q1 13:17
3RD & 3
OWN 47
0
84.2%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:59
4TH & 3
OWN 47
+1
83.9%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 47 yds , Brandon Joseph returns for 1 yd to the NDame 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0884% → 83%
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-2
83.9%
Chris Tyree run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 5Similar
Q1 11:59
2ND & 12
OWN 5
+4
83.9%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Michael Mayer for 4 yds to the NDame 9Similar
Q1 11:59
3RD & 8
OWN 9
+6
83.8%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Audric Estime for 6 yds to the NDame 15Similar
Q1 9:51
4TH & 2
OWN 15
0
83.1%
Jon Sot punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Hunter at the Cal 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5417% → 17%
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
83.0%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:51
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+5
83.1%
Jaydn Ott run for 5 yds to the Cal 46Similar
Q1 9:51
3RD & 5
OWN 46
0
83.0%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:57
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
82.9%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0583% → 82%
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
83.0%
Drew Pyne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:57
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
82.9%
Audric Estime run for 7 yds to the NDame 27Similar
Q1 8:57
3RD & 3
OWN 27
-5
82.9%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NDame 22Similar
Q1 8:57
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
82.8%
Drew Pyne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:52
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
82.3%
Jon Sot punt for 41 yds , Jeremiah Hunter returns for no gain to the Cal 22 CALIFORNIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Cal 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 2:1517% → 18%
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-4
82.6%
Jaydn Ott run for a loss of 4 yards to the Cal 22Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 14
OWN 22
-10
82.6%
Jack Plummer sacked by Jacob Lacey for a loss of 10 yards to the Cal 12Similar
Q1 6:29
2ND & 14
OWN 22
-10
82.1%
Jack Plummer sacked by Jacob Lacey for a loss of 10 yards to the Cal 12Similar
Q1 6:29
3RD & 24
OWN 12
+16
82.3%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Mavin Anderson for 16 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q1 5:37
4TH & 8
OWN 28
+5
82.1%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 51 yds , Brandon Joseph returns for 5 yds to the NDame 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5582% → 81%
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
81.8%
Drew Pyne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+5
81.7%
Chris Tyree run for 5 yds to the NDame 31Similar
Q1 5:37
3RD & 5
OWN 31
0
81.6%
Drew Pyne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:42
4TH & 5
OWN 31
0
81.0%
Jon Sot punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Hunter at the Cal 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 8MISSED FG
11 plays · 58 yds · 4:2619% → 21%
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
81.4%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:42
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+4
81.5%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 4 yds to the Cal 19Similar
Q1 4:42
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+17
81.7%
Jack Plummer pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 17 yds to the Cal 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
81.1%
Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds to the Cal 38Similar
Q1 4:42
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+12
81.0%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Mavin Anderson for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
50
+9
80.7%
Jack Plummer run for 9 yds to the NDame 41Similar
Q1 4:42
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+11
80.6%
Jack Plummer pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 11 yds to the NDame 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
80.5%
Jaydn Ott run for no gain to the NDame 30Similar
Q1 4:42
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+3
80.5%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 3 yds to the NDame 27Similar
Q1 4:42
3RD & 7
OPP 27
0
80.8%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:16
4TH & 7
OPP 27
+45
79.0%
Dario Longhetto 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9FUMBLE
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0780% → 80%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
80.0%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 8 yds to the NDame 35Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 2
OWN 35
-2
80.4%
Drew Pyne run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 33 Drew Pyne fumbled, recovered by Cal Oluwafemi OladejoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 10TD
4 plays · 33 yds · 0:2622% → 27%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
77.7%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
77.7%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+15
78.2%
Jack Plummer pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 15 yds to the NDame 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
73.0%
Jack Plummer pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 18 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11TD
11 plays · 60 yds · 5:2876% → 80%
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
75.5%
Chris Tyree run for 6 yds to the NDame 46Similar
Q2 14:22
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+10
75.8%
Chris Tyree run for 10 yds to the Cal 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
76.1%
Chris Tyree run for 1 yd to the Cal 43Similar
Q2 14:22
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+6
76.0%
Audric Estime run for 6 yds to the Cal 37Similar
Q2 14:22
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+5
76.0%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Chris Tyree for 5 yds to the Cal 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
76.6%
Audric Estime run for 3 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q2 14:22
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+3
76.6%
Audric Estime run for 3 yds to the Cal 26Similar
Q2 14:22
3RD & 4
OPP 26
-1
76.0%
Drew Pyne run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 27Similar
Q2 14:22
4TH & 5
OPP 27
+5
75.3%
GRUPE, Blake field goal attempt from 45 yards NO GOOD (wide left) [kick was spotted at CAL35]. PENALTY CAL Offsides on SMITH, Kyle enforced 5 yards from the CAL27 to the CAL22 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
76.6%
Chris Tyree run for 1 yd to the Cal 21Similar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+21
79.7%
D. Pyne pass,to C. Tyree for 21 yds for a TD, (B. Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 12FG
13 plays · 69 yds · 4:4324% → 30%
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
76.4%
Jaydn Ott run for 13 yds to the Cal 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
75.4%
OTT, Jaydn rush to the right for a gain of 2 yards to the CAL40 (BRACY, TaRiq;KISER, Jack). PENALTY CAL Holding on COLEMAN, Ben enforced 10 yards from the CAL38 to the CAL28 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 20
OWN 28
+8
76.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jermaine Terry II for 8 yds to the Cal 36Similar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 12
OWN 36
0
76.3%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:54
3RD & 12
OWN 36
+21
76.8%
Jack Plummer run for 21 yds to the NDame 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
74.6%
Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds to the NDame 41Similar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+33
74.6%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 33 yds to the NDame 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
73.8%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
70.9%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
70.9%
DeCarlos Brooks run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 10Similar
Q2 5:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
72.2%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Mavin Anderson for 4 yds to the NDame 6Similar
Q2 4:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+34
70.1%
Dario Longhetto 34 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 13PUNT
12 plays · 27 yds · 4:0571% → 69%
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
71.0%
Chris Tyree run for 7 yds to the NDame 35Similar
Q2 4:05
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+4
72.4%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Lorenzo Styles for 4 yds to the NDame 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
71.9%
Chris Tyree run for 3 yds to the NDame 42Similar
Q2 4:05
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+13
72.9%
Drew Pyne run for 13 yds to the Cal 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
73.5%
Chris Tyree run for 2 yds to the Cal 43Similar
Q2 4:05
2ND & 8
OPP 43
-1
73.5%
Drew Pyne sacked by Jackson Sirmon and Hunter Barth for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 44Similar
Q2 4:05
3RD & 9
OPP 44
-5
72.6%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cal 49Similar
Q2 4:05
3RD & 14
OPP 49
-5
70.8%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NDame 46Similar
Q2 4:05
3RD & 19
OWN 46
+9
70.4%
Audric Estime run for 9 yds to the Cal 45Similar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 19
OWN 46
+9
68.1%
Audric Estime run for 9 yds to the Cal 45Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
68.7%
Jon Sot punt for 34 yds, downed at the Cal 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:3933% → 32%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
67.0%
Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds to the Cal 26Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 8
OWN 26
-10
67.0%
Jack Plummer sacked by Jayson Ademilola for a loss of 10 yards to the Cal 16Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 18
OWN 16
0
68.4%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:53
4TH & 18
OWN 16
+10
69.3%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 54 yds , Brandon Joseph returns for 10 yds to the NDame 40Similar
Q3 13:14
4TH & 18
OWN 16
+10
68.2%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 54 yds , Brandon Joseph returns for 10 yds to the NDame 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 15TD
10 plays · 60 yds · 4:0069% → 81%
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
69.4%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 5 yds to the NDame 45Similar
Q3 13:14
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+7
69.9%
Drew Pyne run for 7 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+14
70.3%
Audric Estime run for 14 yds to the Cal 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
71.4%
Audric Estime run for 2 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q3 13:14
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+4
71.4%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Matt Salerno for 4 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q3 13:14
3RD & 4
OPP 28
0
70.1%
PYNE, Drew pass to the right incomplete intended for STYLES, Lorenzo thrown to the CAL22. PENALTY CAL Targeting on ANTZOULATOS, Blake enforced half the distance from the goal, 14 yards from the CAL28 to the CAL14 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
71.4%
Audric Estime run for 8 yds to the Cal 6Similar
Q3 13:14
2ND & 2
OPP 6
+3
71.4%
Audric Estime run for 3 yds to the Cal 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
71.4%
Audric Estime run for 2 yds to the Cal 1Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
81.3%
A. Estime run for 1 yd for a TD, (B. Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 16TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:2623% → 46%
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
77.3%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 7 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+15
75.4%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (DJ Brown) to the Cal 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
74.4%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+10
75.2%
Jack Plummer run for 10 yds to the NDame 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
74.1%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NDame 46Similar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 15
OPP 46
+10
75.5%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 10 yds to the NDame 36Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+24
73.8%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 24 yds to the NDame 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+11
72.8%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 11 yds to the NDame 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
72.8%
DeCarlos Brooks run for no gain to the NDame 1Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
72.8%
run for no gain to the NDame 1Similar
Q3 4:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
53.7%
J. Plummer run for 1 yd for a TD, (D. Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 17FG
11 plays · 46 yds · 5:0061% → 68%
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
60.5%
Chris Tyree run for 7 yds to the NDame 32Similar
Q3 4:48
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
63.3%
Chris Tyree run for 4 yds to the NDame 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+19
61.8%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Lorenzo Styles for 19 yds to the Cal 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
65.2%
Chris Tyree run for 7 yds to the Cal 38Similar
Q3 4:48
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+2
65.2%
Chris Tyree run for 2 yds to the Cal 36Similar
Q3 4:48
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+2
64.6%
Audric Estime run for 2 yds to the Cal 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
66.5%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Chris Tyree for 1 yd to the Cal 33Similar
Q3 4:48
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+4
66.5%
Chris Tyree run for 4 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+4
63.8%
Chris Tyree run for 4 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 29
0
61.3%
Drew Pyne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:48
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+47
67.7%
Blake Grupe 47 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:4638% → 35%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
62.4%
Jack Plummer sacked by Jacob Lacey for a loss of 8 yards to the Cal 17Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 18
OWN 17
0
63.1%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Jeremiah Hunter) declinedSimilar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+4
64.6%
Jaydn Ott run for 4 yds to the Cal 21Similar
Q4 14:48
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
65.9%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Brandon Joseph at the NDame 34Similar
Q4 13:02
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
64.7%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Brandon Joseph at the NDame 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 19TD
7 plays · 66 yds · 3:4666% → 90%
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
65.7%
Audric Estime run for 3 yds to the NDame 37Similar
Q4 13:02
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+8
67.2%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Chris Tyree for 8 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
68.6%
Audric Estime run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:02
2ND & 5
50
+2
69.5%
Chris Tyree run for 2 yds to the Cal 48Similar
Q4 13:02
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+6
68.9%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Lorenzo Styles for 6 yds to the Cal 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+36
69.9%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Audric Estime for 36 yds to the Cal 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
90.3%
D. Pyne pass,to M. Mayer for 6 yds for a TD, (B. Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 20DOWNS
12 plays · 45 yds · 2:4616% → 14%
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
84.1%
PLUMMER, Jack pass to the left incomplete intended for STURDIVANT, J.Michael thrown to the CAL45. PENALTY UND Pass Interference on HART, Cam enforced at the spot of the foul for 11 yards to the CAL36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
83.1%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+24
83.4%
Jack Plummer run for 24 yds to the NDame 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
80.7%
J. Michael Sturdivant run for 2 yds to the NDame 38Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 8
OPP 38
0
80.8%
Jaydn Ott run for no gain to the NDame 38Similar
Q4 9:16
3RD & 8
OPP 38
0
81.2%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:16
4TH & 8
OPP 38
+16
83.5%
Jack Plummer run for 16 yds to the NDame 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
78.5%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
79.1%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:16
3RD & 10
OPP 22
0
81.0%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:16
4TH & 10
OPP 22
-8
83.8%
Jack Plummer sacked by Isaiah Foskey for a loss of 8 yards to the NDame 30Similar
Q4 6:30
4TH & 10
OPP 22
-8
85.9%
Jack Plummer sacked by Isaiah Foskey for a loss of 8 yards to the NDame 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 2:3790% → 94%
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
90.2%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 7 yds to the NDame 37Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+4
90.9%
Audric Estime run for 4 yds to the NDame 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
91.2%
Chris Tyree run for 2 yds to the NDame 43Similar
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
93.1%
Chris Tyree run for 2 yds to the NDame 43Similar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+3
93.0%
Chris Tyree run for 3 yds to the NDame 46Similar
Q4 4:56
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+1
92.7%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Audric Estime for 1 yd to the NDame 47Similar
Q4 4:56
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
92.2%
Jon Sot punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Hunter at the Cal 7Similar
Q4 3:53
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
93.7%
Jon Sot punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Hunter at the Cal 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:0910% → 8%
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
90.3%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:53
2ND & 10
OWN 7
0
90.4%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:53
3RD & 10
OWN 7
-5
91.0%
Jack Plummer sacked by Isaiah Foskey and Jayson Ademilola for a loss of 5 yards to the Cal 2Similar
Q4 3:53
4TH & 15
OWN 2
+6
91.4%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 46 yds , Brandon Joseph returns for 6 yds to the Cal 42Similar
Q4 2:44
4TH & 15
OWN 2
+6
91.6%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 46 yds , Brandon Joseph returns for 6 yds to the Cal 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · -1 yds · 1:4195% → 96%
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
95.3%
Audric Estime run for 1 yd to the Cal 41Similar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
95.6%
Audric Estime run for 1 yd to the Cal 41Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+1
95.6%
Audric Estime run for 1 yd to the Cal 40Similar
Q4 2:40
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+2
95.3%
Audric Estime run for 2 yds to the Cal 38Similar
Q4 2:40
4TH & 6
OPP 38
-5
94.6%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the Cal 43Similar
Q4 2:40
4TH & 11
OPP 43
0
94.5%
Jon Sot punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
Q4 1:03
4TH & 11
OPP 43
0
96.3%
Jon Sot punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 24DOWNS
9 plays · 45 yds · 1:038% → 8%
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
92.4%
PLUMMER, Jack pass to the left intercepted by LEWIS, Clarence at the CAL32 intended for OTT, Jaydn. Lewis return for -1 yard to the CAL33, End of Play (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY UND Targeting on BERTRAND, JD enforced 15 yards from the CAL20 to the CAL35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+19
91.6%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 19 yds to the NDame 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
89.2%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Mavin Anderson for 6 yds to the NDame 40Similar
Q4 1:03
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+8
88.2%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 8 yds to the NDame 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
87.0%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 3 yds to the NDame 29Similar
Q4 1:03
2ND & 7
OPP 29
0
85.8%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:05
3RD & 7
OPP 29
-6
88.5%
Jack Plummer sacked by Justin Ademilola for a loss of 6 yards to the NDame 35Similar
Q4 0:05
4TH & 13
OPP 35
0
92.2%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 13
OPP 35
0
92.2%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:16
D. Pyne pass,to M. Mayer for 6 yds for a TD, (B. Grupe KICK)
+20.4
TD · Q3 4:48
J. Plummer run for 1 yd for a TD, (D. Longhetto KICK)
-19.1
TD · Q3 9:14
A. Estime run for 1 yd for a TD, (B. Grupe KICK)
+9.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com