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NDSU

North Dakota State 28 at Arizona 31

ARIZ
2022 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2022 · Arizona Stadium
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Win probability · ARIZ
modelARIZ aheadNDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playARIZ scoreNDSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:29 · Kaedin Steindorf punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Jacob Cowing at the Ariz 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+20.5+10.30−10.3−20.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 77Home team on offense+2.3Garbage-time factor−0.2Score differential+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0Pregame prior+0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:50: Cam Miller run for 2 yds for a TD, (Griffin Crosa KICK) — NDSU win probability +13.0 pts (now 54%) (top driver: NDSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:40: H. Luepke run for 6 yds for a TD, (G. Crosa KICK) — NDSU win probability +14.0 pts (now 59%) (top driver: NDSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:41: J. Coleman run for 2 yds for a TD, (T. Loop KICK) — ARIZ win probability +15.1 pts (now 68%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:07: Hunter Luepke run for 38 yds for a TD, (Griffin Crosa KICK) — NDSU win probability +22.8 pts (now 66%) (top driver: NDSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:53: Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 22 yds for a TD NO DAKOTA ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (Oscar Benson) declined, (Tyler Loop KICK) — ARIZ win probability +37.7 pts (now 82%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 6 of 6NDSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 12:52ARIZ 4th & 12 at ARIZ 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:03NDSU 4th & 4 at ARIZ 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    54.9%−0.2
    32% to make
    Punt
    54.9%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:52ARIZ 4th & 2 at ARIZ 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    47.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q3 13:29NDSU 4th & 8 at NDSU 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%−1.8
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.4%
    average punt
  5. Q3 13:29ARIZ 4th & 6 at ARIZ 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.4%−1.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.5%
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:25ARIZ 4th & 6 at ARIZ 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%−1.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.0%
    average punt
  7. Q4 12:56ARIZ 4th & 12 at NDSU 26, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%−3.1
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.4%
    64% to make
    Punt
    28.2%−10.2
    average punt
  8. Q4 9:04NDSU 4th & 2 at ARIZ 23, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    67.4%−2.8
    70% to make
    Punt
    53.1%−17.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 8:59NDSU 4th & 2 at ARIZ 23, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    67.6%−2.6
    70% to make
    Punt
    53.1%−17.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 8:59ARIZ 4th & 1 at NDSU 27, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    36.7%−4.0
    62% to make
    Punt
    25.0%−15.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:55NDSU 4th & 8 at NDSU 27, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.8%−1.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:48NDSU 4th & 8 at NDSU 27, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsPunted · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.8%−2.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 4 of 4NDSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 5:18ARIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:59NDSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:45ARIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:50NDSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:40NDSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:41ARIZ Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:07NDSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:53ARIZ Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.2%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARIZDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 2:0852% → 52%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
51.7%
Michael Wiley run for no gain to the Ariz 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-16
51.7%
run for a loss of 16 yards to the Ariz 9Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 26
OWN 9
+14
51.7%
Michael Wiley run for 14 yds to the Ariz 23Similar
Q1 12:52
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+11
51.9%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 57 yds , Jayden Price returns for 11 yds to the NDkSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 2DOWNS
7 plays · 28 yds · 3:4948% → 48%
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
52.0%
Hunter Luepke run for 5 yds to the NDkSt 36Similar
Q1 12:52
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+17
51.9%
Cam Miller pass complete to Jake Lippe for 17 yds to the Ariz 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
51.8%
Kobe Johnson run for 3 yds to the Ariz 44Similar
Q1 12:52
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+5
51.8%
Cam Miller run for 5 yds to the Ariz 39Similar
Q1 12:52
3RD & 2
OPP 39
-5
51.8%
NO DAKOTA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ariz 44Similar
Q1 12:52
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+3
51.8%
Cam Miller run for 3 yds to the Ariz 41Similar
Q1 9:03
4TH & 4
OPP 41
0
52.3%
Cam Miller pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 3TD
8 plays · 59 yds · 3:4553% → 58%
Q1 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
53.0%
Jayden de Laura run for 12 yds to the NDkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
53.4%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tanner McLachlan for 3 yds to the NDkSt 44Similar
Q1 9:03
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+3
53.4%
Michael Wiley run for 3 yds to the NDkSt 41Similar
Q1 9:03
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+6
53.3%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Michael Wiley for 6 yds to the NDkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
53.5%
Jayden de Laura run for 1 yd to the NDkSt 34Similar
Q1 9:03
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+24
53.5%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tanner McLachlan for 24 yds to the NDkSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
53.5%
DJ Williams run for 4 yds to the NDkSt 6Similar
Q1 5:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
57.8%
Michael Wiley run for 6 yds for a TD NO DAKOTA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the NDkSt 0, (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 4TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 4:1243% → 49%
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
56.7%
run for 6 yds to the NDkSt 26Similar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+15
56.5%
Braylon Henderson run for 15 yds to the NDkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
56.2%
Cam Miller pass complete to RaJa Nelson for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 1
50
+7
55.6%
Hunter Luepke run for 7 yds to the Ariz 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
55.7%
Hunter Luepke run for 7 yds to the Ariz 36Similar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+2
55.6%
Hunter Luepke run for 2 yds to the Ariz 34Similar
Q1 5:11
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+2
55.6%
Cam Miller run for 2 yds to the Ariz 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
55.2%
Kobe Johnson run for 1 yd to the Ariz 31Similar
Q1 0:59
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+31
50.9%
Cam Miller pass complete to Hunter Luepke for 31 yds for a TD, (Griffin Crosa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 5DOWNS
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:0754% → 53%
Q1 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
53.7%
Michael Wiley run for 8 yds to the Ariz 33Similar
Q1 0:59
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
54.5%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Dorian Singer for no gain to the Ariz 33Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
54.7%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Dorian Singer for no gain to the Ariz 33Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
53.9%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
53.6%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:52
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+1
52.9%
run for 1 yd to the Ariz 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 6FUMBLE
8 plays · 17 yds · 4:2350% → 50%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
50.3%
Hunter Luepke run for 4 yds to the Ariz 30Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+7
50.1%
Cam Miller pass complete to Noah Gindorff for 7 yds to the Ariz 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
50.1%
NO DAKOTA ST Penalty, False Start (Noah Gindorff) to the Ariz 28Similar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 15
OPP 28
+10
50.5%
Cole Payton run for 10 yds to the Ariz 18Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+3
50.1%
Dominic Gonnella run for 3 yds to the Ariz 15Similar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+5
50.7%
Hunter Luepke run for 5 yds to the Ariz 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
50.1%
Cole Payton run for 5 yds to the Ariz 5Similar
Q2 10:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-12
49.6%
Cam Miller sacked for a loss of 12 yards to the Ariz 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 7TD
12 plays · 83 yds · 4:4454% → 65%
Q2 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
54.1%
Jayden de Laura run for 9 yds to the Ariz 26Similar
Q2 10:29
2ND & 1
OWN 26
+3
54.9%
Michael Wiley run for 3 yds to the Ariz 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+22
54.3%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Dorian Singer for 22 yds to the NDkSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+22
54.6%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Dorian Singer for 22 yds to the NDkSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
56.7%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tanner McLachlan for 7 yds to the NDkSt 42Similar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 3
OPP 42
0
56.9%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Michael Wiley for no gain to the NDkSt 42Similar
Q2 9:04
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+5
56.4%
Jayden de Laura run for 5 yds to the NDkSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+14
56.9%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jonah Coleman for 14 yds to the NDkSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
57.3%
Jonah Coleman run for no gain to the NDkSt 23Similar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+16
57.2%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tanner McLachlan for 16 yds to the NDkSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
65.3%
Jayden de Laura run for 7 yds for a TD, (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 8TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:5537% → 54%
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
63.0%
ARIZONA Penalty, Personal Foul (Jacob Manu) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
50
-1
60.5%
Cam Miller sacked by Dion Wilson Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the NDkSt 49Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+12
61.7%
Cole Payton run for 12 yds to the Ariz 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
60.3%
Cam Miller run for 1 yd to the Ariz 38Similar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-9
60.3%
LUEPKE, Hunter rush to the left for a gain of 9 yards to the ARI38 (HARRIS, Jalen;MANU, Jacob), 1ST DOWN. PENALTY ARI Personal Foul on ROLAND-WALLACE, Christian NDS Holding on ZABEL, Grey , Offsetting penalties. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+14
60.4%
Cam Miller pass complete to Noah Gindorff for 14 yds to the Ariz 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
58.8%
NO DAKOTA ST Penalty, False Start (Cam Miller) to the Ariz 29Similar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 15
OPP 29
+2
60.1%
DJ Hart run for 2 yds to the Ariz 27Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 13
OPP 27
+25
60.2%
Cam Miller pass complete to Hunter Luepke for 25 yds to the Ariz 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
58.6%
Hunter Luepke run for no gain to the Ariz 2Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
45.6%
Cam Miller run for 2 yds for a TD, (Griffin Crosa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 9FG
7 plays · 56 yds · 0:5055% → 62%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
54.7%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
54.4%
Jayden de Laura run for 11 yds to the Ariz 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+30
55.8%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Dorian Singer for 30 yds to the NDkSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
59.1%
DE LAURA, Jayden pass to the left incomplete intended for MCMILLAN, Tetairoa thrown to the NDS19. PENALTY NDS Pass Interference on PRICE, Jayden enforced 15 yards to the NDS19 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
57.5%
DE LAURA, Jayden pass to the left incomplete intended for MCMILLAN, Tetairoa thrown to the NDS19. PENALTY NDS Pass Interference on PRICE, Jayden enforced 15 yards to the NDS19 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+36
61.6%
Tyler Loop 36 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3141% → 38%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
58.8%
Hunter Luepke run for 1 yd to the NDkSt 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
58.9%
Cam Miller pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+1
59.9%
Cam Miller pass complete to Kobe Johnson for 1 yd to the NDkSt 27Similar
Q3 13:29
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
61.7%
Kaedin Steindorf punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Jacob Cowing at the Ariz 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0461% → 58%
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
60.7%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:29
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
60.5%
Rayshon Luke run for 4 yds to the Ariz 24Similar
Q3 13:29
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
59.5%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:29
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
58.5%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 52 yds, downed at the NDkSt 24Similar
Q3 12:25
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
58.4%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 52 yds, downed at the NDkSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 12TD
6 plays · 76 yds · 2:4540% → 59%
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
59.6%
Kobe Johnson run for 6 yds to the NDkSt 30Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+10
58.2%
Hunter Luepke run for 10 yds to the NDkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
57.4%
Hunter Luepke run for 1 yd to the NDkSt 41Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+34
57.7%
TaMerik Williams run for 34 yds to the Ariz 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+19
54.6%
Dominic Gonnella run for 19 yds to the Ariz 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
40.6%
H. Luepke run for 6 yds for a TD, (G. Crosa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 13TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:5946% → 68%
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
46.3%
Jayden de Laura run for 2 yds to the Ariz 27Similar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
46.5%
DJ Williams run for 3 yds to the Ariz 30Similar
Q3 9:40
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+15
45.7%
DE LAURA, Jayden pass to the right incomplete thrown to the ARI40. PENALTY NDS Personal Foul on MOSTAERT, Will enforced 15 yards from the ARI30 to the ARI45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
49.3%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-3
47.7%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Anthony Simpson for a loss of 3 yards to the Ariz 42Similar
Q3 9:40
3RD & 13
OWN 42
+23
45.5%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Dorian Singer for 23 yds to the NDkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
52.4%
Jayden de Laura run for 5 yds to the NDkSt 30Similar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+28
52.5%
Rayshon Luke run for 28 yds to the NDkSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
67.6%
J. Coleman run for 2 yds for a TD, (T. Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 14TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:3439% → 66%
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
61.5%
Cole Payton run for 4 yds to the NDkSt 29Similar
Q3 5:41
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
60.5%
Kobe Johnson run for 2 yds to the NDkSt 31Similar
Q3 5:41
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
61.5%
Hunter Luepke run for 4 yds to the NDkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
60.5%
Cam Miller pass complete to Noah Gindorff for 9 yds to the NDkSt 44Similar
Q3 5:41
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+7
57.4%
TaMerik Williams run for 7 yds to the Ariz 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
57.2%
Braylon Henderson run for 11 yds to the Ariz 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
34.4%
Hunter Luepke run for 38 yds for a TD, (Griffin Crosa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 15MISSED FG
11 plays · 49 yds · 4:1141% → 39%
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
41.4%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 5 yds to the Ariz 30Similar
Q3 2:07
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+10
42.2%
DJ Williams run for 10 yds to the Ariz 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
44.4%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:07
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+22
42.7%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 22 yds to the NDkSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
46.3%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Dorian Singer for 9 yds to the NDkSt 29Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
45.9%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Dorian Singer for 9 yds to the NDkSt 29Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+5
47.9%
Michael Wiley run for 5 yds to the NDkSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-8
47.9%
Jayden de Laura sacked by Javier Derritt for a loss of 8 yards to the NDkSt 32Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 18
OPP 32
+6
45.2%
Jayden de Laura run for 6 yds to the NDkSt 26Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 26
0
44.4%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:56
4TH & 12
OPP 26
+43
39.4%
Tyler Loop 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 16DOWNS
10 plays · 52 yds · 3:5764% → 69%
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+22
35.9%
Kobe Johnson run for 22 yds to the NDkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
32.8%
Hunter Luepke run for 7 yds to the Ariz 45Similar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+14
31.8%
TaMerik Williams run for 14 yds to the Ariz 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
30.9%
Jalen Bussey run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 32Similar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 11
OPP 32
+9
31.0%
Cam Miller pass complete to Hunter Luepke for 9 yds to the Ariz 23Similar
Q4 12:56
3RD & 2
OPP 23
0
32.2%
Hunter Luepke run for no gain to the Ariz 23Similar
Q4 9:04
3RD & 2
OPP 23
0
29.0%
Hunter Luepke run for no gain to the Ariz 23Similar
Q4 9:04
4TH & 2
OPP 23
+1
31.2%
Cole Payton run for 1 yd to the Ariz 22Similar
Q4 8:59
4TH & 2
OPP 23
+1
31.2%
Cole Payton run for 1 yd to the Ariz 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 17TD
10 plays · 78 yds · 4:0640% → 82%
Q4 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
40.2%
Jonah Coleman run for 6 yds to the Ariz 28Similar
Q4 8:59
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+13
41.3%
Jonah Coleman run for 13 yds to the Ariz 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
44.1%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 1 yd to the Ariz 42Similar
Q4 8:59
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+3
42.4%
Jonah Coleman run for 3 yds to the Ariz 45Similar
Q4 8:59
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+19
42.9%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 19 yds to the NDkSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
46.2%
Jonah Coleman run for 8 yds to the NDkSt 28Similar
Q4 8:59
2ND & 2
OPP 28
0
49.2%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:59
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+1
46.3%
DJ Williams run for 1 yd to the NDkSt 27Similar
Q4 8:59
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+5
44.0%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 5 yds to the NDkSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
81.7%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 22 yds for a TD NO DAKOTA ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (Oscar Benson) declined, (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 2:0530% → 25%
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
70.1%
Hunter Luepke run for 2 yds to the NDkSt 27Similar
Q4 4:53
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-2
69.5%
TaMerik Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDkSt 25Similar
Q4 4:53
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+2
71.9%
Cam Miller pass complete to Braylon Henderson for 2 yds to the NDkSt 27Similar
Q4 2:55
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+2
74.4%
Cam Miller pass complete to Braylon Henderson for 2 yds to the NDkSt 27Similar
Q4 2:55
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
75.4%
Kaedin Steindorf punt for 30 ydsSimilar
Q4 2:48
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
75.5%
Kaedin Steindorf punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 19END OF GAME
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:5686% → 89%
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
85.5%
Michael Wiley run for 3 yds to the Ariz 46Similar
Q4 2:48
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+4
85.7%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Dorian Singer for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+4
89.6%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Dorian Singer for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 3
50
+9
89.1%
Michael Wiley run for 9 yds to the NDkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:52
3RD & 3
50
+9
89.1%
Michael Wiley run for 9 yds to the NDkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:53
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 22 yds for a TD NO DAKOTA ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (Oscar Benson) declined, (Tyler Loop KICK)
+37.7
TD · Q3 2:07
Hunter Luepke run for 38 yds for a TD, (Griffin Crosa KICK)
-22.8
TD · Q3 5:41
J. Coleman run for 2 yds for a TD, (T. Loop KICK)
+15.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com