2022 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2022 · Husky Stadium
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Win probability · WASH
modelWASH aheadPRST aheadconfidence bandkey playWASH scorePRST score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:53 · George Triplett punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Giles Jackson at the Wash 6
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 9:51: Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 84 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK) — WASH win probability +1.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- FG · Q2 4:44: Gianni Smith 23 yd FG GOOD — PRST win probability +1.5 pts (now 4%) (top driver: PRST has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:13: Wayne Taulapapa run for 6 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK) — WASH win probability +1.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:00: Peyton Henry 32 yd FG GOOD — WASH win probability +0.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- FG · Q3 14:55: Gianni Smith kickoff for 40 yds , Jack Westover return for 12 yds to the Wash 47 WASHINGTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Wash 20 — PRST win probability +1.4 pts (now 2%) (top driver: PRST has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WASH made the numbers' call on 2 of 2PRST made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
- Q1 12:44PRST 4th & 5 at PRST 35, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snapGo for it3.7%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.7%average punt
- Q1 6:32PRST 4th & 4 at PRST 25, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.3% before the snapGo for it4.3%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.3%average punt
- Q2 11:15PRST 4th & 14 at WASH 49, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snapGo for it4.5%−0.319% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.8%average punt
- Q2 11:15PRST 4th & 14 at WASH 49, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snapGo for it4.5%−0.319% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.8%average punt
- Q2 4:44PRST 4th & 4 at WASH 6, down 21Close callKicked a field goal · 2.8% before the snapGo for it2.8%40% to convertField goalTheir call2.7%−0.191% to makePunt1.3%−1.4average punt
- Q2 1:19PRST 4th & 2 at PRST 33, down 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snapGo for it3.4%−<0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.4%average punt
- Q2 0:34PRST 4th & 4 at WASH 39, down 25Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.8%48% to convertField goal3.8%−<0.136% to makePunt3.6%−0.2average punt
- Q3 7:43PRST 4th & 9 at WASH 23, down 35Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.130% to convertField goalTheir call0.3%70% to makePunt-0.1%−0.4average punt
- Q4 14:53PRST 4th & 9 at PRST 44, down 39Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 11:09WASH 4th & 10 at WASH 40, up 39Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 9:33PRST 4th & 5 at PRST 16, down 39Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 6:50WASH 4th & 3 at PRST 30, up 39Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%52% to convertField goal99.9%−0.156% to makePunt99.8%−0.2average punt
- Q4 3:25PRST 4th & 15 at PRST 20, down 46Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.116% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WASH made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 8:10WASH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.8%97% to makeGo for two95.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:41WASH Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.8%97% to makeGo for two95.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:51WASH Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.7%97% to makeGo for two97.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:13WASH Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.0%97% to makeGo for two98.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:18WASH Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:28WASH Touchdown, up 38 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:12WASH Touchdown, up 45 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartPRSTDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 5 yds · 2:093% → 3%
WASHDrive 2TD12 plays · 77 yds · 4:3497% → 97%
Q1 12:44
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+9
97.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Wayne Taulapapa for 9 yds to the Wash 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:44
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+5
97.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Penix Jr.,Michael pass incomplete short left to Polk,Ja'Lynn PENALTY PSU Offside (Ane,E.J.) 5 yards from WASH41 to WASH46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
97.1%
PENALTY WASH False Start (Luciano,Corey) 5 yards from PSU42 to PSU47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:44
1ST & 15
OPP 47
+7
97.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Cameron Davis for 7 yds to the PrtSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 6 yds · 1:323% → 4%
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
96.6%
PORTLAND ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Dante Chachere) to the PrtSt 9Similar
Q1 7:57
3RD & 16
OWN 13
+12
96.7%
Dante Chachere pass complete to Beau Kelly for 12 yds to the PrtSt 25Similar
Q1 6:32
4TH & 4
OWN 25
0
96.5%
George Triplett punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Giles Jackson at the Wash 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 4TD10 plays · 74 yds · 3:5197% → 97%
Q1 6:32
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+19
96.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 19 yds to the PrtSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+15
96.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jack Westover for 15 yds to the PrtSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:32
2ND & 12
OPP 14
+2
96.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 2 yds to the PrtSt 12Similar
Q1 2:41
3RD & 10
OPP 12
+12
96.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 12 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 5PUNT15 plays · 26 yds · 6:263% → 4%
Q1 2:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
96.7%
Shotgun Kelly,Beau pass complete deep right to Griffin,Maclaine for 36 yards to the WASH39 (Fabiculanan,Kamren) PENALTY PSU Illegal Shift 5 yards from PSU25 to PSU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:41
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-5
96.8%
PENALTY PSU False Start (Titialii,D'Angalo) 5 yards from PSU20 to PSU15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+8
96.4%
Dante Chachere pass complete to Emmanuel Daigbe for 8 yds to the PrtSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
50
+5
96.3%
Dante Chachere pass complete to Beau Kelly for 5 yds to the Wash 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
96.3%
Dante Chachere sacked by Alphonzo Tuputala for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 27
OWN 38
+13
96.5%
Dante Chachere pass complete to Nate Bennett for 13 yds to the Wash 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 6TD3 plays · 99 yds · 1:2497% → 98%
PRSTDrive 7FG17 plays · 69 yds · 5:072% → 4%
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
97.9%
Andrew Van Buren run for 12 yds to the Wash 37 for a 1ST down WASHINGTON Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Tupuola-Fetui,Zion) 15 yards from PSU37 to WASH48, 1ST DOWN. (Zion Tupuola-Fetui) to the Wash 48Similar
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
97.7%
Dante Chachere pass complete to Nate Bennett for 6 yds to the Wash 42Similar
Q2 7:06
4TH & 9
OPP 36
+10
97.7%
Shotgun Chachere,Dante pass incomplete short middle to Bennett,Nate PENALTY WASH Holding (Powell,Mishael) 10 yards from WASH36 to WASH26, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:06
2ND & 11
OPP 27
+15
97.4%
Shotgun Chachere,Dante pass incomplete short right to Daigbe,Emmanuel, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY WASH Pass Interference (Powell,Mishael) 15 yards from WASH27 to WASH12, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 8TD8 plays · 72 yds · 2:2897% → 98%
Q2 4:41
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+37
97.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 37 yds to the PrtSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 9PUNT7 plays · 8 yds · 0:543% → 4%
WASHDrive 10INT3 plays · 5 yds · 0:1898% → 98%
PRSTDrive 11DOWNS5 plays · 6 yds · 0:275% → 4%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 12FG6 plays · 46 yds · 0:3499% → 100%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
98.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 13 yds to the PrtSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+23
98.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 23 yds to the PrtSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
99.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 10 yds to the PrtSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 13TD6 plays · 80 yds · 2:37100% → 100%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+23
99.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 23 yds to the PrtSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+20
99.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 20 yds to the PrtSt 24 for a 1ST down PORTLAND ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Parker McKenna) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+20
99.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 20 yds to the PrtSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 14FG10 plays · 52 yds · 4:350% → 1%
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.7%
Shotgun McGee,Jalynnee rush right for 4 yards loss to the PSU21 (Martin,Jeremiah; Trice,Bralen) PENALTY WASH Face Mask (Martin,Jeremiah) 15 yards from PSU25 to PSU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+15
99.7%
WASHINGTON Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Wash 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 15TD12 plays · 65 yds · 5:09100% → 100%
Q3 7:37
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+9
99.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Lonyatta Alexander for 9 yds to the Wash 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
99.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 4 yds to the Wash 49Similar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+5
99.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Quentin Moore for 5 yds to the PrtSt 27Similar
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
99.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Cameron Davis for 8 yds to the PrtSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 14 yds · 2:350% → 0%
WASHDrive 17PUNT8 plays · 34 yds · 3:44100% → 100%
PRSTDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:360% → 0%
Q4 9:33
4TH & 5
OWN 16
+12
99.9%
George Triplett punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PrtSt 47 , Giles Jackson returns for 12 yds to the PrtSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 19TD9 plays · 47 yds · 4:21100% → 100%
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
99.9%
Sam Huard pass complete to Denzel Boston for 10 yds to the PrtSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-13
99.9%
Sam Huard sacked by EJ Ane for a loss of 13 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:50
4TH & 3
OPP 30
+14
99.9%
Sam Huard pass complete to Camden Sirmon for 14 yds to the PrtSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 2
OPP 8
+6
99.9%
Shotgun Huard,Sam pass incomplete short right to Boston,Denzel, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY PSU Pass Interference (Avery,Isaiah) 6 yards from PSU08 to PSU02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 20PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 1:470% → 0%
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
100.0%
Jaden Casey pass complete to Ahmir McGee for no gain to the PrtSt 25Similar
Q4 5:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
100.0%
Jaden Casey run for 5 yds to the PrtSt 20 Jaden Casey fumbled, recovered by PrtSt Ahmir McGeeSimilar
Q4 3:25
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
100.0%
George Triplett punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Lonyatta Alexander at the Wash 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 21END OF GAME6 plays · 24 yds · 3:25100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:51
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 84 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK)
+1.7
FG · Q2 4:44
Gianni Smith 23 yd FG GOOD
-1.5
FG · Q3 14:55
Gianni Smith kickoff for 40 yds , Jack Westover return for 12 yds to the Wash 47 WASHINGTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Wash 20
-1.4