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SUU

Southern Utah 7 at Utah 73

UTAH
2022 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2022 · Rice-Eccles Stadium
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Win probability · UTAH
modelUTAH aheadSUU aheadconfidence bandkey playUTAH scoreSUU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:17 · Easton Jones punt for 44 yds , returns for no gain to the Utah 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 94Pregame prior+2.4Home team on offense+36.5Score differential+31.6Blowout margin+20.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+16.0Garbage-time factor+8.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 15:00: Tavion Thomas run for 1 yd to the SoUth 7 — UTAH win probability +0.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:32: Tiquan Gilmore run for 6 yds to the SoUth 12 — UTAH win probability +0.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 10:46: Tavion Thomas run for 4 yds to the SoUth 9 — UTAH win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 7:02: Cameron Rising pass complete to Micah Bernard for 17 yds to the SoUth 2 for a 1ST down — UTAH win probability +0.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 2:38: Cameron Rising pass incomplete — UTAH win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SUU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 10:46SUU 4th & 2 at SUU 46, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q2 2:38SUU 4th & 13 at SUU 18, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  3. Q2 0:40SUU 4th & 10 at SUU 30, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  4. Q4 1:17SUU 4th & 4 at SUU 16, down 73
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTAHDrive 2TD
5 plays · 56 yds · 2:1398% → 98%
Q1 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
98.1%
Cameron Rising pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:13
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+18
98.1%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Tavion Thomas for 18 yds to the SoUth 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+14
98.1%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Jaylen Dixon for 14 yds to the SoUth 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+12
98.2%
Chris Curry run for 12 yds to the SoUth 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+1
98.2%
Tavion Thomas run for 1 yd to the SoUth 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 3TD
1 play · 18 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 14:32
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
98.6%
Tiquan Gilmore run for 6 yds to the SoUth 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SUUDrive 4DOWNS
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:412% → 2%
Q2 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
98.3%
Justin Miller pass complete to Tim Patrick Jr. for 8 yds to the SoUth 33Similar
Q2 13:27
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
98.3%
Justin Miller pass complete to Tim Patrick Jr. for 5 yds to the SoUth 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
98.3%
Joe Davis run for 2 yds to the SoUth 40Similar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+2
98.3%
Justin Miller pass complete to Ethan Bolingbroke for 2 yds to the SoUth 42Similar
Q2 11:25
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+4
98.3%
Justin Miller pass complete to Brennon Hutchings for 4 yds to the SoUth 46Similar
Q2 10:46
4TH & 2
OWN 46
0
98.2%
Justin Miller pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 5FG
5 plays · 37 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
99.2%
Cameron Rising pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+36
99.2%
Micah Bernard run for 36 yds to the SoUth 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
99.2%
Cameron Rising pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-3
99.2%
Tavion Thomas run for a loss of 3 yards to the SoUth 13Similar
Q2 10:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
+4
99.3%
Tavion Thomas run for 4 yds to the SoUth 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SUUDrive 6PUNT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
99.1%
Elijah Burns run for 9 yds to the SoUth 33Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 1
OWN 33
-7
99.0%
Justin Miller sacked by Lander Barton for a loss of 7 yards to the SoUth 26Similar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 8
OWN 26
0
99.1%
Justin Miller pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 7TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 0:0099% → 100%
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
99.2%
Tavion Thomas run for 5 yds to the Utah 40Similar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+15
99.3%
RISING, Cameron pass to the left incomplete intended for KUITHE, Brant thrown to the SUU20. PENALTY SUU Personal Foul on CULLIMORE, Kohner enforced 15 yards from the UTE40 to the SUU45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+32
99.3%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Dalton Kincaid for 32 yds to the SoUth 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-6
99.3%
Tiquan Gilmore run for a loss of 6 yards to the SoUth 19Similar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 16
OPP 19
+17
99.6%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Micah Bernard for 17 yds to the SoUth 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SUUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:270% → 0%
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
99.7%
Joe Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoUth 19Similar
Q2 4:05
2ND & 12
OWN 19
+4
99.7%
Justin Miller pass complete to Brennon Hutchings for 4 yds to the SoUth 23Similar
Q2 4:05
3RD & 8
OWN 23
0
99.7%
Justin Miller pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:05
4TH & 8
OWN 23
-5
99.7%
SOUTHERN UTAH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SoUth 18Similar
Q2 2:38
4TH & 13
OWN 18
0
99.7%
Jake Gerardi punt for 62 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 9TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+25
99.7%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Devaughn Vele for 25 yds to the Utah 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
99.7%
Micah Bernard run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:38
2ND & 5
50
+13
99.7%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Brant Kuithe for 13 yds to the SoUth 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
99.8%
Cameron Rising pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SUUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:280% → 0%
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
99.8%
Justin Miller pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
99.8%
Justin Miller pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:08
3RD & 10
OWN 30
0
99.8%
Justin Miller pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:40
4TH & 10
OWN 30
+21
99.8%
Jake Gerardi punt for 48 yds , Devaughn Vele returns for 21 yds to the Utah 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 11TD
3 plays · 57 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
99.8%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Devaughn Vele for 13 yds to the SoUth 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+22
99.8%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Money Parks for 22 yds to the SoUth 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+16
99.8%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Micah Bernard for 16 yds to the SoUth 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SUUDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
99.8%
WOODEN, Isaiah rush to the left for a gain of 25 yards to the UTE40 (BISHOP, Cole). PENALTY SUU Holding on NKANU, Christy enforced 10 yards from the SUU35 to the SUU25 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 25
0
99.8%
SOUTHERN UTAH Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (TEAM) to the SoUth 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SUUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
Justin Miller pass complete to Mata'ava Ta'ase for 1 yd to the SoUth 26Similar
Q3 13:53
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-1
99.9%
Grady Robison run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoUth 25Similar
Q3 13:53
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+11
99.9%
Justin Miller pass complete to Mata'ava Ta'ase for 11 yds to the SoUth 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.9%
Justin Miller pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:53
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+1
99.9%
Bobby Cole run for 1 yd to the SoUth 37Similar
Q3 13:53
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
99.9%
Justin Miller pass complete to Brennon Hutchings for no gain to the SoUth 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 15TD
5 plays · 78 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
99.9%
Chris Curry run for 8 yds to the Utah 30Similar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+24
99.9%
Chris Curry run for 24 yds to the SoUth 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+7
99.9%
Jaylon Glover run for 7 yds to the SoUth 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+26
99.9%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Money Parks for 26 yds to the SoUth 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
99.9%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Jaylen Dixon for 9 yds to the SoUth 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SUUDrive 16PUNT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Joe Davis run for no gain to the SoUth 25Similar
Q3 7:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Grady Robison pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:49
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Grady Robison pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 17TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 6:49100% → 100%
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.9%
Chris Curry run for no gain to the Utah 20Similar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
99.9%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Jaylen Dixon for 6 yds to the Utah 26Similar
Q3 6:49
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+5
99.9%
Bryson Barnes run for 5 yds to the Utah 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
99.9%
Chris Curry run for 4 yds to the Utah 35Similar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+10
99.9%
Jaylon Glover run for 10 yds to the Utah 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
99.9%
Jaylon Glover run for a loss of 1 yard to the Utah 44Similar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+15
99.9%
BARNES, Bryson pass up the middle incomplete intended for YASSMIN, Thomas thrown to the SUU50. PENALTY SUU Personal Foul on WARD, Rodrick enforced 15 yards from the UTE44 to the SUU41 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
99.9%
UTAH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SoUth 46Similar
Q3 6:49
1ST & 15
OPP 46
+3
99.9%
Jaylon Glover run for 3 yds to the SoUth 43Similar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 12
OPP 43
-10
99.9%
GLOVER, Jaylon rush up the middle for a gain of 7 yards to the SUU36 (WHALEN, Trent). PENALTY UTE Holding on KUMP, Jaren enforced 10 yards from the SUU43 to the UTE47. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 22
OWN 47
+23
99.9%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Money Parks for 23 yds to the SoUth 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
99.9%
Jaylon Glover run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoUth 31Similar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 11
OPP 31
-5
99.9%
UTAH Penalty, Illegal Substitution (TEAM) to the SoUth 36Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 34
+5
99.9%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Makai Cope for 5 yds to the SoUth 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SUUDrive 18PUNT
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
100.0%
Jackson Berry run for 6 yds to the SoUth 41Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+3
100.0%
Fabian Marble run for 3 yds to the SoUth 44Similar
Q4 14:18
3RD & 1
OWN 44
-4
100.0%
Fabian Marble run for a loss of 4 yards to the SoUth 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 19TD
1 play · 72 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+43
100.0%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 28 yds to the UTAH 44 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN UTAH Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the SoUth 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SUUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · -5 yds · 1:440% → 0%
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
100.0%
Braedon Wissler run for 2 yds to the SoUth 12Similar
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
100.0%
Braedon Wissler run for 2 yds to the SoUth 12Similar
Q4 10:35
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+2
100.0%
Braedon Wissler run for 2 yds to the SoUth 14Similar
Q4 8:51
3RD & 6
OWN 14
-5
100.0%
SOUTHERN UTAH Penalty, Illegal Snap on COX, Lennon enforced (-5 Yards) to the SoUth 9Similar
Q4 8:51
3RD & 11
OWN 9
-4
100.0%
Jackson Berry sacked by Connor O'Toole and Gabe Reid for a loss of 4 yards to the SoUth 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
100.0%
Charlie Vincent run for 7 yds to the Utah 42Similar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+1
100.0%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 1 yd to the Utah 43Similar
Q4 8:06
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+3
100.0%
Charlie Vincent run for 3 yds to the Utah 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
100.0%
Charlie Vincent run for a loss of 2 yards to the Utah 44Similar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 12
OWN 44
+7
100.0%
Charlie Vincent run for 7 yds to the SoUth 49Similar
Q4 8:06
3RD & 5
OPP 49
0
100.0%
Jaylon Glover run for no gain to the SoUth 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SUUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:160% → 0%
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
100.0%
Jayden Perkins run for 6 yds to the SoUth 16Similar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+2
100.0%
Jayden Perkins run for 2 yds to the SoUth 18Similar
Q4 3:33
3RD & 2
OWN 18
-2
100.0%
Jayden Perkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoUth 16Similar
Q4 1:17
4TH & 4
OWN 16
0
100.0%
Easton Jones punt for 44 yds , returns for no gain to the Utah 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 14:32
Tiquan Gilmore run for 6 yds to the SoUth 12
+0.3
TD · Q2 7:02
Cameron Rising pass complete to Micah Bernard for 17 yds to the SoUth 2 for a 1ST down
+0.3
TD · Q2 15:00
Tavion Thomas run for 1 yd to the SoUth 7
+0.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com