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ALST

Alabama State 7 at UCLA 45

UCLA
2022 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2022 · Rose Bowl
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Win probability · UCLA
modelUCLA aheadALST aheadconfidence bandkey playUCLA scoreALST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Christian Grubb run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:53: Hudson Habermehl 25 Yd pass from Dorian Thompson-Robinson (Nicholas Barr-Mira Kick) — UCLA win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:53: Jeremiah Hixon 21 Yd pass from Myles Crawley (Myles Crawley Kick) — ALST win probability +0.5 pts (now 2%) (top driver: ALST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 10:39: Ethan Garbers 5 Yd Run (Nicholas Barr-Mira Kick) — UCLA win probability +0.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:02: Ethan Garbers 2 Yd Run (Nicholas Barr-Mira Kick) — UCLA win probability +0.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 12:23: TJ Harden 13 Yd Run (Nicholas Barr-Mira Kick) — UCLA win probability +0.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCLA made the numbers' call on 3 of 5ALST made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 10:08ALST 4th & 3 at UCLA 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    0.7%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:08ALST 4th & 3 at UCLA 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    0.7%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:36ALST 4th & 3 at UCLA 41, down 14
    Close callPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    0.9%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:36UCLA 4th & 7 at UCLA 23, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:57ALST 4th & 21 at ALST 43, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:43UCLA 4th & 1 at ALST 1, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.8%−0.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    97.2%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:44ALST 4th & 7 at ALST 28, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:44ALST 4th & 7 at ALST 28, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:37ALST 4th & 7 at ALST 46, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:15UCLA 4th & 2 at UCLA 44, up 31
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:47ALST 4th & 24 at ALST 19, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.1%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:00ALST 4th & 1 at ALST 46, down 38
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    -0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:00ALST 4th & 1 at ALST 46, down 38
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    -0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:23UCLA 4th & 8 at UCLA 21, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:23UCLA 4th & 8 at UCLA 21, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCLA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6ALST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 7:58UCLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:53UCLA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:53ALST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:39UCLA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:02UCLA Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:23UCLA Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:24UCLA Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ALSTDrive 1DOWNS
12 plays · 53 yds · 4:461% → 1%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
99.4%
Jacory Merritt run for 2 yds to the AlbSt 17Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 8
OWN 17
0
99.4%
Jacory Merritt run for no gain to the AlbSt 17Similar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 8
OWN 17
+32
99.4%
Myles Crawley pass complete to La'Vontae Shenault for 32 yds to the AlbSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
99.4%
Jacory Merritt run for no gain to the AlbSt 49Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+5
99.4%
Myles Crawley pass complete to La'Vontae Shenault for 5 yds to the UCLA 46Similar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+7
99.4%
Myles Crawley pass complete to Darius Edmonds for 7 yds to the UCLA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
99.4%
Myles Crawley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-5
99.4%
ALABAMA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCLA 44Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 15
OPP 44
+5
99.4%
Myles Crawley pass complete to Jacory Merritt for 5 yds to the UCLA 39Similar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+7
99.4%
Myles Crawley pass complete to Jeremiah Hixon for 7 yds to the UCLA 32Similar
Q1 10:08
4TH & 3
OPP 32
0
99.2%
Myles Crawley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:08
4TH & 3
OPP 32
0
99.2%
Myles Crawley pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 2TD
7 plays · 68 yds · 2:1099% → 99%
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
99.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala for 8 yds to the UCLA 40Similar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+14
99.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala for 14 yds to the AlbSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
99.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Hudson Habermehl for 6 yds to the AlbSt 40Similar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+21
99.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kazmeir Allen for 21 yds to the AlbSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
99.2%
Keegan Jones run for 3 yds to the AlbSt 16Similar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+14
99.2%
THOMPSON-ROBINSON, Dorian pass to the left incomplete intended for HABERMEHL, Hudson thrown to the ASU5. PENALTY ASU Pass Interference on ISAAC, Keenan enforced 14 yards to the ASU2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.2%
Keegan Jones 2 Yd Run (Nicholas Barr-Mira Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALSTDrive 3FUMBLE
6 plays · 7 yds · 2:531% → 1%
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
99.1%
Myles Crawley pass complete to Isaiah Scott for 9 yds to the AlbSt 28Similar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 1
OWN 28
-1
99.1%
Myles Crawley pass complete to Jeremiah Hixon for a loss of 1 yard to the AlbSt 27Similar
Q1 7:53
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+9
99.1%
Myles Crawley pass complete to Santos Dunn for 9 yds to the AlbSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.1%
Santos Dunn run for no gain to the AlbSt 36Similar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
99.1%
Myles Crawley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 10
OWN 36
-15
99.0%
Myles Crawley sacked for a loss of 10 yards to the AlbSt 26 ALABAMA ST Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (Gabriel Murphy) to the AlbSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 4TD
1 play · 25 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
99.2%
Hudson Habermehl 25 Yd pass from Dorian Thompson-Robinson (Nicholas Barr-Mira Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALSTDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 34 yds · 2:171% → 1%
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
99.1%
Myles Crawley pass complete to Isaiah Scott for 17 yds to the AlbSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
99.1%
ALABAMA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the AlbSt 37Similar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 15
OWN 37
+15
99.1%
CRAWLEY, Myles pass to the right complete for 0 yards to SCOTT, Isaiah caught at the ASU32 and advanced to the ASU37 (VAUGHNS, JonJon;CALVERT, Bo). PENALTY UCL Personal Foul on SMITH III, Gary enforced 15 yards from the ASU37 to the UCL48 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
99.1%
Myles Crawley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
99.1%
Myles Crawley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:53
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+7
99.1%
Myles Crawley run for 7 yds to the UCLA 41Similar
Q1 2:36
4TH & 3
OPP 41
0
99.0%
Aubrey Grace punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 1:0099% → 99%
Q1 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
99.0%
Keegan Jones run for 5 yds to the UCLA 25Similar
Q1 1:48
2ND & 5
OWN 25
-2
99.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kazmeir Allen for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 23Similar
Q1 1:48
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
98.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
98.9%
ALABAMA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the AlbSt 35Similar
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
98.9%
ALABAMA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the AlbSt 35Similar
Q1 1:36
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
98.9%
Nicholas Barr-Mira punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALSTDrive 7TD
8 plays · 60 yds · 2:431% → 2%
Q1 1:36
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+14
98.9%
Myles Crawley pass complete to Darius Edmonds for 14 yds to the AlbSt 49Similar
Q1 1:36
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+2
98.8%
Jacory Merritt run for 2 yds to the UCLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
98.7%
Santos Dunn run for 7 yds to the UCLA 42 Santos Dunn fumbled, recovered by AlbStSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+8
98.7%
Myles Crawley pass complete to La'Vontae Shenault for 8 yds to the UCLA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
98.7%
Myles Crawley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
98.7%
Myles Crawley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+13
98.7%
Myles Crawley pass complete to Santos Dunn for 13 yds to the UCLA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
98.2%
Jeremiah Hixon 21 Yd pass from Myles Crawley (Myles Crawley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 8TD
17 plays · 70 yds · 3:0998% → 99%
Q2 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
98.4%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kazmeir Allen for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 29Similar
Q2 13:48
2ND & 11
OWN 29
0
98.4%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:48
3RD & 11
OWN 29
+18
98.4%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Keegan Jones for 18 yds to the UCLA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
98.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Jake Bobo for 12 yds to the AlbSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
98.5%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Kazmeir Allen for 12 yds to the AlbSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+10
98.5%
Keegan Jones run for 10 yds to the AlbSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-5
98.4%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (Titus Mokiao-Atimalala) to the AlbSt 24Similar
Q2 11:58
1ST & 15
OPP 24
-15
98.4%
UCLA Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Jon Gaines II) to the AlbSt 36Similar
Q2 11:58
1ST & 27
OPP 36
+7
98.3%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Keegan Jones for 7 yds to the AlbSt 29Similar
Q2 11:58
2ND & 20
OPP 29
+15
98.3%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Colson Yankoff for 15 yds to the AlbSt 14Similar
Q2 11:58
2ND & 20
OPP 29
+15
98.3%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Colson Yankoff for 15 yds to the AlbSt 14Similar
Q2 11:58
3RD & 5
OPP 14
0
98.3%
GARBERS, Ethan pass to the right incomplete intended for YANKOFF, Colson thrown to the ASU12. PENALTY ASU Roughing the Passer on OGLETREE, Andrew enforced half the distance from the goal, 7 yards from the ASU14 to the ASU7 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:58
3RD & 5
OPP 14
0
98.3%
GARBERS, Ethan pass to the right incomplete intended for YANKOFF, Colson thrown to the ASU12. PENALTY ASU Roughing the Passer on OGLETREE, Andrew enforced half the distance from the goal, 7 yards from the ASU14 to the ASU7 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
98.4%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Keegan Jones for 2 yds to the AlbSt 5Similar
Q2 11:58
1ST & 15
OPP 24
+9
98.4%
Keegan Jones run for 24 yds UCLA Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Jon Gaines II) to the AlbSt 36Similar
Q2 10:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
98.8%
Ethan Garbers 5 Yd Run (Nicholas Barr-Mira Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALSTDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 3:421% → 2%
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
98.6%
Myles Crawley pass complete to Jeremiah Hixon for 9 yds to the AlbSt 34Similar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
98.5%
Ja'Won Howell run for 5 yds to the AlbSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
98.6%
Myles Crawley pass complete to Jaelyn Lay for 15 yds to the UCLA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
98.5%
Ja'Won Howell run for 4 yds to the UCLA 42Similar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 6
OPP 42
-5
98.5%
CRAWLEY, Myles pass to the right incomplete intended for HIXON, Jeremiah thrown to the UCL27. PENALTY Before the snap, ASU Illegal Shift on SCOTT, Isaiah enforced 5 yards from the UCL42 to the UCL47. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 11
OPP 47
0
98.6%
Myles Crawley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:39
3RD & 11
OPP 47
-10
98.6%
Myles Crawley sacked by Grayson Murphy for a loss of 10 yards to the AlbSt 43Similar
Q2 6:57
4TH & 21
OWN 43
+2
98.4%
Aubrey Grace punt for 43 yds , Logan Loya returns for 2 yds to the UCLA 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 10FG
11 plays · 83 yds · 4:1498% → 99%
Q2 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+15
98.4%
ALABAMA ST Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (DeMarkus Cunningham) to the UCLA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
98.4%
Keegan Jones run for 3 yds to the UCLA 37Similar
Q2 6:57
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+14
98.4%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Logan Loya for 14 yds to the AlbSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
98.4%
Keegan Jones run for 2 yds to the AlbSt 47Similar
Q2 6:57
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+6
98.4%
TJ Harden run for 6 yds to the AlbSt 41Similar
Q2 6:57
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+12
98.4%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Carsen Ryan for 12 yds to the AlbSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+26
98.5%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Carsen Ryan for 26 yds to the AlbSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
98.5%
TJ Harden run for no gain to the AlbSt 3Similar
Q2 6:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
98.5%
Keegan Jones run for 2 yds to the AlbSt 1Similar
Q2 6:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
98.4%
Keegan Jones run for no gain to the AlbSt 1Similar
Q2 2:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+19
98.6%
Nicholas Barr-Mira 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALSTDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 3 yds · 0:592% → 2%
Q2 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
98.4%
Myles Crawley sacked by Laiatu Latu for a loss of 4 yards to the AlbSt 21Similar
Q2 2:43
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
98.4%
Myles Crawley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:48
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+7
98.4%
Myles Crawley pass complete to Jaelyn Lay for 7 yds to the AlbSt 28Similar
Q2 1:48
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+7
98.3%
Myles Crawley pass complete to Jaelyn Lay for 7 yds to the AlbSt 28Similar
Q2 1:44
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
98.4%
Aubrey Grace punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Logan Loya at the UCLA 38Similar
Q2 1:44
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
98.4%
Aubrey Grace punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Logan Loya at the UCLA 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 12TD
7 plays · 62 yds · 0:4299% → 99%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+17
98.8%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Jake Bobo for 17 yds to the AlbSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
98.8%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Jake Bobo for 12 yds to the AlbSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
98.8%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+11
98.8%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Logan Loya for 11 yds to the AlbSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+20
98.8%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Carsen Ryan for 20 yds to the AlbSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+20
98.8%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Carsen Ryan for 20 yds to the AlbSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.3%
Ethan Garbers 2 Yd Run (Nicholas Barr-Mira Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALSTDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:571% → 1%
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
99.1%
Jacory Merritt run for 9 yds to the AlbSt 31Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+2
98.9%
Jacory Merritt run for 2 yds to the AlbSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 14TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 2:3399% → 100%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
99.2%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Keegan Jones for 4 yds to the UCLA 34Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+19
99.2%
Colson Yankoff run for 19 yds to the AlbSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
99.2%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+8
99.2%
Colson Yankoff run for 8 yds to the AlbSt 39Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+8
99.2%
Colson Yankoff run for 8 yds to the AlbSt 39Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+4
99.2%
Colson Yankoff run for 4 yds to the AlbSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
99.2%
TJ Harden run for 15 yds to the AlbSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
99.2%
TJ Harden run for 7 yds to the AlbSt 13Similar
Q3 12:23
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+13
99.8%
TJ Harden 13 Yd Run (Nicholas Barr-Mira Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALSTDrive 15INT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:520% → 0%
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Myles Crawley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.8%
CRAWLEY, Myles pass up the middle incomplete intended for SHENAULT, La'Vontae broken up by HEARN, Azizi at the ASU40. PENALTY UCL Targeting on CHURCHWELL III, Kenny enforced 15 yards from the ASU25 to the ASU40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
99.8%
Jacory Merritt run for 2 yds to the AlbSt 42Similar
Q3 12:23
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
99.8%
Ja'Won Howell run for no gain to the AlbSt 42Similar
Q3 10:31
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
99.8%
Myles Crawley pass interceptedSimilar
Q3 10:31
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
99.8%
Myles Crawley pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 16INT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:57100% → 100%
Q3 10:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
99.8%
Colson Yankoff run for 2 yds to the AlbSt 5Similar
Q3 10:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
99.8%
Colson Yankoff run for a loss of 1 yard to the AlbSt 6Similar
Q3 9:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.9%
Ethan Garbers pass interceptedSimilar
Q3 9:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.9%
Ethan Garbers pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALSTDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 41 yds · 4:570% → 0%
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
99.9%
Jacory Merritt run for 3 yds to the AlbSt 8Similar
Q3 9:34
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+18
99.9%
Santos Dunn run for 18 yds to the AlbSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
99.8%
Santos Dunn run for 3 yds to the AlbSt 29Similar
Q3 9:34
2ND & 7
OWN 29
0
99.8%
Santos Dunn run for no gain to the AlbSt 29Similar
Q3 9:34
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+14
99.8%
Joe Owens Jr. run for 14 yds to the AlbSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
99.8%
Dontrey Manley run for 1 yd to the AlbSt 44Similar
Q3 9:34
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+2
99.8%
Dontrey Manley run for 2 yds to the AlbSt 46Similar
Q3 9:34
3RD & 7
OWN 46
0
99.8%
Joe Owens Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:37
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
99.8%
Aubrey Grace punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Logan Loya at the UCLA 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 2:22100% → 100%
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
99.9%
TJ Harden run for 8 yds to the UCLA 29Similar
Q3 4:37
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+7
99.9%
TJ Harden run for 7 yds to the UCLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
99.9%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Logan Loya for 5 yds to the UCLA 41Similar
Q3 4:37
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+3
99.9%
Colson Yankoff run for 3 yds to the UCLA 44Similar
Q3 4:37
3RD & 2
OWN 44
0
99.9%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:15
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
99.9%
Nicholas Barr-Mira punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Robert McMinn at the AlbSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALSTDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 2:280% → 0%
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
99.9%
Marcus Harris Ii run for 5 yds to the AlbSt 25Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+8
99.9%
Marcus Harris Ii run for 8 yds to the AlbSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-15
99.9%
run for a loss of 15 yards to the AlbSt 18Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 25
OWN 18
+1
99.9%
Joe Owens Jr. pass complete to Marcus Harris Ii for 1 yd to the AlbSt 19 ALABAMA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (TEAM) declinedSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 24
OWN 19
0
99.9%
Joe Owens Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:47
4TH & 24
OWN 19
0
99.9%
Aubrey Grace punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Logan Loya at the UCLA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 20TD
6 plays · 55 yds · 1:23100% → 100%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+22
99.9%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Josiah Norwood for 7 yds to the ALABAMAST 48 for a 1ST down ALABAMA ST Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle on MADOX, Adrian enforced (Adrian Madox) to the AlbSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+21
99.9%
Christian Grubb run for 21 yds to the AlbSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
99.9%
Christian Grubb run for 8 yds to the AlbSt 4Similar
Q4 13:58
2ND & 2
OPP 4
-3
99.9%
Christian Grubb run for a loss of 3 yards to the AlbSt 7Similar
Q4 13:24
3RD & 5
OPP 7
+7
99.9%
Christian Grubb 7 Yd Run (Joseph Firebaugh Jr. Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALSTDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 4:240% → 0%
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
100.0%
Nyqua Lett run for 6 yds to the AlbSt 31Similar
Q4 13:24
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
100.0%
Nazareth Bryant run for 3 yds to the AlbSt 34Similar
Q4 13:24
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
99.9%
Nazareth Bryant run for 3 yds to the AlbSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-9
100.0%
run for a loss of 9 yards to the AlbSt 28Similar
Q4 13:24
2ND & 19
OWN 28
+12
100.0%
Nazareth Bryant run for 12 yds to the AlbSt 40Similar
Q4 13:24
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+6
100.0%
Nyqua Lett run for 6 yds to the AlbSt 46Similar
Q4 9:00
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
100.0%
Aubrey Grace punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Logan Loya at the UCLA 5Similar
Q4 9:00
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
100.0%
Aubrey Grace punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Logan Loya at the UCLA 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:37100% → 100%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+9
99.9%
Deshun Murrell run for 9 yds to the UCLA 14Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 1
OWN 14
+5
100.0%
Deshun Murrell run for 5 yds to the UCLA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
99.9%
Deshun Murrell run for 6 yds to the UCLA 25Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 4
OWN 25
-10
100.0%
GRUBB, Christian rush to the left for a gain of 21 yards to the UCL46 (ECHOLS, Rodney). PENALTY UCL Holding on MARRAZZO, Sam enforced 10 yards from the UCL25 to the UCL15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 14
OWN 15
+6
99.9%
Deshun Murrell run for 6 yds to the UCLA 21Similar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 8
OWN 21
0
99.9%
Chase Griffin pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:23
4TH & 8
OWN 21
0
100.0%
Chase Barry punt for 39 yds, downed at the AlbSt 40Similar
Q4 6:23
4TH & 8
OWN 21
0
100.0%
Chase Barry punt for 39 yds, downed at the AlbSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALSTDrive 23INT
7 plays · 56 yds · 3:340% → 0%
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
100.0%
Nyqua Lett run for no gain to the AlbSt 40Similar
Q4 6:23
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+6
100.0%
Nyqua Lett run for 6 yds to the AlbSt 46Similar
Q4 4:18
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+45
100.0%
Nyqua Lett pass complete to Darius Edmonds for 45 yds to the UCLA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
100.0%
Dante Norris run for 6 yds to the UCLA 3Similar
Q4 4:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
100.0%
Dante Norris run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 4Similar
Q4 2:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
100.0%
Nyqua Lett pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 24END OF GAME
5 plays · 30 yds · 2:49100% → 100%
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
100.0%
Deshun Murrell run for 2 yds to the UCLA 22Similar
Q4 2:49
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+9
100.0%
Christian Grubb run for 9 yds to the UCLA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
100.0%
Christian Grubb run for 7 yds to the UCLA 38Similar
Q4 2:49
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+6
100.0%
Deshun Murrell run for 6 yds to the UCLA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
100.0%
Christian Grubb run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:23
TJ Harden 13 Yd Run (Nicholas Barr-Mira Kick)
+0.6
TD · Q2 13:53
Jeremiah Hixon 21 Yd pass from Myles Crawley (Myles Crawley Kick)
-0.5
TD · Q2 1:02
Ethan Garbers 2 Yd Run (Nicholas Barr-Mira Kick)
+0.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com