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USC

USC 41 at Stanford 28

STAN
2022 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2022 · Stanford Stadium
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Win probability · STAN
modelSTAN aheadUSC aheadconfidence bandkey playSTAN scoreUSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:24 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+50.5+25.30−25.3−50.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:46: Jordan Addison 75 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Denis Lynch Kick) — USC win probability +5.4 pts (now 69%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:02: Mario Williams 15 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Denis Lynch Kick) — USC win probability +11.2 pts (now 85%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 6:13: E.J. Smith 5 Yd Run (Joshua Karty Kick) — STAN win probability +7.6 pts (now 29%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 2:33: Travis Dye 27 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick) — USC win probability +11.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:03: Tanner McKee 2 Yd Run (Joshua Karty Kick) — STAN win probability +11.5 pts (now 13%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
STAN made the numbers' call on 6 of 7USC made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 9:19STAN 4th & 1 at USC 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    28.8%−0.3
    77% to make
    Punt
    27.9%−1.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:26STAN 4th & 2 at USC 2, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    29.0%−0.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    27.6%−1.7
    average punt
  3. Q2 1:08STAN 4th & 16 at STAN 42, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.3%−0.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.0%
    average punt
  4. Q3 13:49USC 4th & 11 at STAN 28, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.0%
    60% to make
    Punt
    87.3%−2.7
    average punt
  5. Q3 12:43STAN 4th & 2 at STAN 32, down 24
    Close callPunted · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.5%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q3 3:54USC 4th & 15 at STAN 22, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.0%−0.5
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.5%
    72% to make
    Punt
    95.2%−1.3
    average punt
  7. Q3 0:55USC 4th & 6 at STAN 25, up 24
    Close callKicked a field goal · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.0%
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.0%−<0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    96.2%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q4 14:18STAN 4th & 3 at midfield, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.3%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q4 10:21STAN 4th & 2 at USC 2, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    0.7%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    -0.8%−1.7
    average punt
  10. Q4 7:54USC 4th & 6 at USC 42, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.0%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:35USC 4th & 18 at STAN 40, up 13
    Close callPunted · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.8%−0.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    96.3%
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.2%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:27STAN 4th & 12 at STAN 17, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.8%
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.6%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
STAN made the numbers' call on 3 of 4USC made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 12:38USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:03USC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:57STAN Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:46USC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:02USC Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 6:13STAN Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 2:33USC Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 10:21STAN Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:03STAN Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STANDrive 1INT
4 plays · 14 yds · 0:5137% → 37%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
36.9%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Michael Wilson for 12 yds to the Stanf 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
37.1%
E.J. Smith run for 2 yds to the Stanf 39Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 8
OWN 39
-32
37.3%
Tanner McKee pass intercepted Max Williams return for 32 yds to the Stanf 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 2TD
4 plays · 33 yds · 1:1663% → 63%
Q1 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
37.1%
Travis Dye run for 7 yds to the Stanf 26Similar
Q1 13:26
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+10
37.2%
Caleb Williams run for 10 yds to the Stanf 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+11
37.3%
Travis Dye run for 11 yds to the Stanf 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
36.6%
Lake McRee 5 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Denis Lynch Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3INT
17 plays · 73 yds · 5:0637% → 37%
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
36.9%
E.J. Smith run for 15 yds to the Stanf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
37.1%
McKee, Tanner pass incomplete to Tremayne, Brycen, PENALTY USC pass interference (Blackmon, Mekhi) 8 yards to the STANFORD48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN STANFORD.Similar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
37.1%
STANFORD Penalty, False Start (Walter Rouse) to the Stanf 43Similar
Q1 12:09
1ST & 15
OWN 43
+18
37.0%
E.J. Smith run for 18 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
37.3%
E.J. Smith run for 6 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+5
37.5%
Casey Filkins run for 5 yds to the USC 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
37.5%
Casey Filkins run for 5 yds to the USC 23Similar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 5
OPP 23
-4
37.6%
Tanner McKee sacked by Solomon Byrd for a loss of 4 yards to the USC 27Similar
Q1 9:45
3RD & 9
OPP 27
+8
37.5%
E.J. Smith run for 8 yds to the USC 19Similar
Q1 9:19
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+3
37.3%
E.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the USC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+13
37.7%
Tanner McKee pass complete to E.J. Smith for 13 yds to the USC 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
38.0%
E.J. Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 4Similar
Q1 7:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
38.0%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to Brycen TremayneSimilar
Q1 7:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
37.6%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to Brycen TremayneSimilar
Q1 7:34
4TH & 0
OPP 4
+2
37.3%
USC Penalty, Defensive Offside (Brandon Pili) to the USC 2Similar
Q1 7:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
-17
37.2%
Tanner McKee pass intercepted Mekhi Blackmon return for 17 yds to the USC 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 4TD
8 plays · 83 yds · 3:1464% → 68%
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
36.5%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Mario Williams for 7 yds to the USC 24Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+13
36.3%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Austin Jones for 13 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
36.2%
Caleb Williams run for 8 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q1 5:36
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+10
35.8%
Austin Jones run for 10 yds to the Stanf 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
35.6%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Lake McRee, broken up by Jacob Mangum-FarrarSimilar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+20
35.6%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 20 yds to the Stanf 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
35.4%
Travis Dye run for 3 yds to the Stanf 22Similar
Q1 4:03
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+22
31.7%
Jordan Addison 22 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Denis Lynch Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 5TD
9 plays · 93 yds · 2:4933% → 38%
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
33.2%
Tanner McKee pass complete to John Humphreys for 4 yds to the Stanf 11Similar
Q1 3:19
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+8
32.1%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Elijah Higgins for 8 yds to the Stanf 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+10
32.0%
E.J. Smith run for 10 yds to the Stanf 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
32.2%
McKee, Tanner pass incomplete to Tremayne, Brycen, PENALTY USC pass interference (Blackmon, Mekhi) 15 yards to the STANFORD44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN STANFORD.Similar
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+50
33.0%
Benjamin Yurosek run for 50 yds to the USC 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
33.3%
E.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the USC 3Similar
Q1 1:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
33.2%
E.J. Smith run for no gain to the USC 3Similar
Q1 0:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
37.8%
E.J. Smith 3 Yd pass from Tanner McKee (Joshua Karty Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 6TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
30.8%
Jordan Addison 75 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Denis Lynch Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 7FUMBLE
13 plays · 73 yds · 3:2732% → 32%
Q1 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
31.5%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to Michael WilsonSimilar
Q1 0:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
31.4%
E.J. Smith run for a loss of 5 yards to the Stanf 20Similar
Q1 0:02
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+23
31.1%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Elijah Higgins for 23 yds to the Stanf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+19
32.6%
E.J. Smith run for 19 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
32.7%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Benjamin Yurosek for 15 yds to the USC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
32.6%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to Michael Wilson, broken up by Ceyair WrightSimilar
Q2 13:51
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
32.5%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to Silas Starr, broken up by Solomon ByrdSimilar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+18
32.1%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Brycen Tremayne for 18 yds to the USC 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-4
32.5%
E.J. Smith run for a loss of 4 yards to the USC 9Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
32.3%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Benjamin Yurosek for 5 yds to the USC 4Similar
Q2 12:15
3RD & 0
OPP 4
+2
32.0%
E.J. Smith run for 2 yds to the USC 2 E.J. Smith fumbled, forced by Max Williams, recovered by USC Mekhi BlackmonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 8TD
8 plays · 98 yds · 3:0471% → 85%
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
29.5%
Travis Dye run for 3 yds to the USC 5Similar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 7
OWN 5
+15
28.8%
Williams, Caleb pass incomplete to Dye, Travis, PENALTY STANFORD pass interference (Bailey, David) 15 yards to the USC20, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN USC.Similar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
28.3%
Travis Dye run for 11 yds to the USC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
27.8%
Travis Dye run for 9 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+2
27.1%
Austin Jones run for 2 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
26.5%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Jordan AddisonSimilar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+43
26.6%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Mario Williams for 43 yds to the Stanf 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
15.4%
Mario Williams 15 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Denis Lynch Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 9TD
9 plays · 67 yds · 2:3620% → 29%
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+19
19.8%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Elijah Higgins for 19 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+18
20.7%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Michael Wilson for 18 yds to the USC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
21.9%
Tanner McKee run for 15 yds to the USC 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
21.6%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to Sam RoushSimilar
Q2 7:23
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+2
21.6%
E.J. Smith run for 2 yds to the USC 13Similar
Q2 6:57
3RD & 8
OPP 13
+9
20.9%
E.J. Smith run for 9 yds to the USC 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
21.1%
E.J. Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 5Similar
Q2 6:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
28.7%
E.J. Smith 5 Yd Run (Joshua Karty Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 10TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:3374% → 88%
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
25.8%
Austin Jones run for 5 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q2 5:32
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+9
25.3%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Mario Williams for 9 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
24.5%
Austin Jones run for 7 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q2 4:23
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+13
23.9%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jordan Addison for 13 yds to the Stanf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
23.5%
Travis Dye run for 6 yds to the Stanf 35Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+8
23.2%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Lake McRee for 8 yds to the Stanf 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
11.9%
Travis Dye 27 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 1:1016% → 18%
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
16.3%
Casey Filkins run for 15 yds to the Stanf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
17.0%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Benjamin Yurosek for 10 yds to the Stanf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
17.4%
Tanner McKee sacked by Nick Figueroa for a loss of 5 yards to the Stanf 43Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 15
OWN 43
0
16.1%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to Casey Filkins, broken up by Tuasivi NomuraSimilar
Q2 1:16
3RD & 15
OWN 43
-1
15.9%
Casey Filkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 42Similar
Q2 1:08
4TH & 16
OWN 42
0
17.9%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Jordan Addison at the USC 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 12END OF HALF
9 plays · 7 yds · 0:5387% → 89%
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
12.6%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jordan Addison for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 9Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 11
OWN 9
+3
13.0%
Austin Jones run for 3 yds to the USC 12Similar
Q2 0:46
3RD & 8
OWN 12
+15
12.4%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jordan Addison for 15 yds to the USC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-13
11.1%
Caleb Williams sacked by Ricky Miezan for a loss of 13 yards to the USC 14Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 23
OWN 14
-4
11.8%
Austin Jones run for 6 yds to the USC 20 USC Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jonah Monheim) to the USC 10Similar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 27
OWN 10
+7
10.8%
Raleek Brown run for 7 yds to the USC 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13FG
6 plays · 47 yds · 1:0389% → 90%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+48
11.4%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jordan Addison for 48 yds to the Stanf 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:38
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
10.2%
Travis Dye run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 28Similar
Q3 14:01
2ND & 11
OPP 28
0
10.0%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Malcolm EppsSimilar
Q3 13:53
3RD & 11
OPP 28
0
10.3%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Tahj WashingtonSimilar
Q3 13:49
4TH & 11
OPP 28
+45
10.3%
Denis Lynch 45 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:5613% → 10%
Q3 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
12.7%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to Michael Wilson, broken up by Tuli TuipulotuSimilar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+7
12.6%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Benjamin Yurosek for 7 yds to the Stanf 31Similar
Q3 13:26
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+1
13.3%
Casey Filkins run for 1 yd to the Stanf 32Similar
Q3 12:43
4TH & 2
OWN 32
-3
10.3%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 46 yds , Jordan Addison returns for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 19 Jordan Addison fumbled, recovered by USC Jordan AddisonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15MISSED FG
15 plays · 59 yds · 8:4192% → 96%
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
8.1%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 8 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+4
7.8%
Austin Jones run for 4 yds to the USC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
7.5%
Raleek Brown run for 3 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q3 10:34
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+5
7.1%
Raleek Brown run for 5 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q3 9:53
3RD & 2
OWN 39
-10
6.0%
Dye, Travis rush for 6 yards to the USC45, PENALTY USC holding (Ford, Courtland) 10 yards to the USC29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:03
3RD & 12
OWN 29
+25
5.8%
Caleb Williams run for 10 yds to the Stanf 39 for a 1ST down STANFORD Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Stephen Herron) to the Stanf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
5.3%
Caleb Williams run for 4 yds to the Stanf 42Similar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+1
5.0%
Austin Jones run for 1 yd to the Stanf 41Similar
Q3 7:16
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+6
4.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Austin Jones for 6 yds to the Stanf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
4.6%
Caleb Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 36Similar
Q3 5:56
2ND & 11
OPP 36
+19
4.2%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Travis Dye for 19 yds to the Stanf 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
3.8%
Caleb Williams run for 1 yd to the Stanf 16Similar
Q3 4:39
2ND & 9
OPP 16
0
3.7%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Mario WilliamsSimilar
Q3 4:33
3RD & 9
OPP 16
-6
3.8%
Caleb Williams sacked by Patrick Fields for a loss of 6 yards to the Stanf 22Similar
Q3 3:54
4TH & 15
OPP 22
+39
3.9%
Denis Lynch 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 16FUMBLE
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:405% → 5%
Q3 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
4.7%
Tanner McKee pass complete to E.J. Smith for 10 yds to the Stanf 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
4.7%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to Michael WilsonSimilar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-3
4.6%
E.J. Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the Stanf 29 E.J. Smith fumbled, forced by Tuli Tuipulotu, recovered by USC Jacobe CovingtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17FG
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:0797% → 98%
Q3 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
3.2%
Raleek Brown run for 4 yds to the Stanf 25Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+4
3.1%
Travis Dye run for 4 yds to the Stanf 21Similar
Q3 1:46
3RD & 2
OPP 21
-15
3.0%
Williams, Caleb pass complete to Rice, Brenden for 19 yards to the STANFORD2, PENALTY USC pass interference (Rice, Brenden) 15 yards to the STANFORD36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:32
3RD & 17
OPP 36
+11
3.0%
Travis Dye run for 11 yds to the Stanf 25Similar
Q3 0:55
4TH & 6
OPP 25
+42
2.1%
Denis Lynch 42 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 18TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:263% → 4%
Q3 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
2.5%
Elijah Higgins run for 18 yds to the Stanf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
2.9%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to Brycen TremayneSimilar
Q3 0:10
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+6
2.6%
Tanner McKee run for 6 yds to the Stanf 49Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+1
2.7%
Casey Filkins run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:18
4TH & 3
50
+4
2.7%
Casey Filkins run for 4 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
2.8%
McKee, Tanner pass incomplete to Tremayne, Brycen, PENALTY USC pass interference (Blackmon, Mekhi) 15 yards to the USC31, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN STANFORD.Similar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
2.9%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Silas Starr for 6 yds to the USC 25Similar
Q4 13:19
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+5
1.8%
Casey Filkins run for 5 yds to the USC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
1.3%
Casey Filkins run for 4 yds to the USC 16Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+8
0.8%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Benjamin Yurosek for 8 yds to the USC 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
1.0%
Casey Filkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 10Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
0.9%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to Brycen TremayneSimilar
Q4 10:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
0.8%
Casey Filkins run for 8 yds to the USC 2Similar
Q4 10:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
4.1%
Casey Filkins 2 Yd Run (Joshua Karty Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:1997% → 98%
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
2.6%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Malcolm Epps for 4 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q4 9:32
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
2.4%
Travis Dye run for 9 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
2.1%
Travis Dye run for 4 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 6
OWN 42
0
2.0%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Mario WilliamsSimilar
Q4 8:02
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
2.0%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Terrell BynumSimilar
Q4 7:54
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
2.1%
Aadyn Sleep-Dalton punt for 28 yds, downed at the Stanf 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 20TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 2:442% → 13%
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
2.4%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Casey Filkins for 11 yds to the Stanf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
2.5%
Casey Filkins run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:48
2ND & 1
50
+13
2.2%
Tanner McKee pass complete to John Humphreys for 13 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+14
1.6%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Casey Filkins for 14 yds to the USC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-8
1.8%
Tanner McKee sacked by Shane Lee for a loss of 8 yards to the USC 31Similar
Q4 5:18
2ND & 18
OPP 31
0
1.7%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to Caleb RobinsonSimilar
Q4 5:13
3RD & 18
OPP 31
+15
1.6%
McKee, Tanner pass incomplete to Humphreys, John, PENALTY USC pass interference (Wright, Ceyair) 15 yards to the USC16, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN STANFORD.Similar
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+14
1.8%
McKee, Tanner pass incomplete to Higgins, Elijah, PENALTY USC pass interference (Smith, Jaylin) 14 yards to the USC2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN STANFORD.Similar
Q4 5:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
13.2%
Tanner McKee 2 Yd Run (Joshua Karty Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 2:1495% → 97%
Q4 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
5.0%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Austin Jones for 12 yds to the Stanf 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
4.5%
Travis Dye run for 1 yd to the Stanf 31Similar
Q4 3:31
2ND & 9
OPP 31
0
3.5%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jordan Addison for no gain to the Stanf 31Similar
Q4 2:43
3RD & 9
OPP 31
-9
3.4%
Caleb Williams sacked by David Bailey and Stephen Herron for a loss of 9 yards to the Stanf 40Similar
Q4 2:35
4TH & 18
OPP 40
0
3.3%
Aadyn Sleep-Dalton punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Casey Filkins at the Stanf 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 22DOWNS
7 plays · 6 yds · 2:024% → 4%
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+6
4.2%
Casey Filkins run for 6 yds to the Stanf 10Similar
Q4 2:06
2ND & 4
OWN 10
0
4.2%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to Michael WilsonSimilar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 4
OWN 10
+9
3.6%
Casey Filkins run for 9 yds to the Stanf 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
3.8%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Casey Filkins for 3 yds to the Stanf 22Similar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 7
OWN 22
-11
3.7%
Tanner McKee sacked by Tuli Tuipulotu for a loss of 11 yards to the Stanf 11Similar
Q4 0:57
3RD & 18
OWN 11
+6
3.4%
Casey Filkins run for 6 yds to the Stanf 17Similar
Q4 0:27
4TH & 12
OWN 17
-7
3.5%
Tanner McKee sacked by Solomon Byrd for a loss of 7 yards to the Stanf 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 23END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
2.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:03
Tanner McKee 2 Yd Run (Joshua Karty Kick)
+11.5
TD · Q2 2:33
Travis Dye 27 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)
-11.3
TD · Q2 9:02
Mario Williams 15 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Denis Lynch Kick)
-11.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com