2022 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2022 · Autzen Stadium
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Win probability · ORE
modelORE aheadEWU aheadconfidence bandkey playORE scoreEWU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:20 · Adam Barry punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Efton Chism III at the EWash 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 9:27: Terrance Ferguson 13 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick) — EWU win probability +0.4 pts (now 4%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:08: Terrance Ferguson 19 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick) — ORE win probability +1.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:10: Mar'Keise Irving 1 Yd Run (Camden Lewis Kick) — ORE win probability +1.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:03: Jett Carpenter 7 Yd pass from Gunner Talkington (Jackson Cleaver Kick) — EWU win probability +1.4 pts (now 3%) (top driver: EWU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:14: Byron Cardwell 13 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick) — ORE win probability +1.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ORE made the numbers' call on 3 of 3EWU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
- Q1 13:36EWU 4th & 11 at EWU 24, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snapGo for it4.9%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.1%average punt
- Q1 13:36ORE 4th & 1 at EWU 17, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call95.0%71% to convertField goal94.8%−0.180% to makePunt94.4%−0.6average punt
- Q1 8:26EWU 4th & 1 at EWU 34, down 7Close callPunted · 5.6% before the snapGo for it5.7%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.6%−0.1average punt
- Q1 3:39EWU 4th & 4 at EWU 31, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snapGo for it5.4%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.5%average punt
- Q2 13:50ORE 4th & 6 at EWU 40, up 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.4%40% to convertField goal96.3%−0.234% to makePunt96.3%−0.1average punt
- Q2 2:20EWU 4th & 11 at EWU 24, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.625% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.9%average punt
- Q3 8:48EWU 4th & 12 at EWU 35, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 8:48EWU 4th & 12 at EWU 35, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 2:18EWU 4th & 8 at ORE 15, down 56Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−0.131% to convertField goal0.1%83% to makePunt-0.4%−0.4average punt
- Q4 8:20EWU 4th & 12 at ORE 47, down 56Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 4:20ORE 4th & 8 at ORE 37, up 56Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call100.0%average punt
- Q4 2:02EWU 4th & 2 at EWU 42, down 56Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
- Q4 2:02EWU 4th & 2 at EWU 42, down 56Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORE made the numbers' call on 10 of 10EWU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 9:27ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.5%97% to makeGo for two94.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:52ORE Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.6%97% to makeGo for two94.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:08ORE Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.7%97% to makeGo for two96.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:10ORE Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.6%97% to makeGo for two98.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:03EWU Touchdown, down 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call3.0%97% to makeGo for two3.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:14ORE Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:00ORE Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:31ORE Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:18ORE Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:38ORE Touchdown, up 55 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:18EWU Touchdown, down 50 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.2%97% to makeGo for two0.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:07ORE Touchdown, up 55 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartEWUDrive 1PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 1:243% → 3%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+1
96.8%
Gunner Talkington pass complete to Freddie Roberson for 1 yd to the EWash 16Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+8
96.8%
Gunner Talkington pass complete to Jakobie James for 8 yds to the EWash 24Similar
Q1 13:36
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+15
96.6%
Nick Kokich punt for 36 yds , Kris Hutson returns for 15 yds to the EWash 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 2TD10 plays · 45 yds · 4:0997% → 96%
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
96.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Kris Hutson for a loss of 1 yard to the EWash 46Similar
Q1 13:36
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+9
96.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Noah Whittington for 9 yds to the EWash 17Similar
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
96.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 3 yds to the EWash 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EWUDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:014% → 4%
Q1 8:26
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+15
96.0%
Nick Kokich punt for 53 yds , Chase Cota returns for 15 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 4TD10 plays · 72 yds · 3:3496% → 96%
EWUDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:134% → 4%
OREDrive 6TD10 plays · 83 yds · 4:3196% → 97%
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+14
96.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 14 yds to the EWash 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EWUDrive 7INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
OREDrive 8TD10 plays · 44 yds · 3:4097% → 99%
Q2 13:50
4TH & 6
OPP 40
+11
97.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 11 yds to the EWash 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
97.4%
OREGON Penalty, Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on POWERS-JOHNSON, Jackson ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 13:50
3RD & 13
OPP 32
+19
97.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 19 yds to the EWash 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EWUDrive 9TD11 plays · 38 yds · 3:561% → 3%
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
98.5%
Gunner Talkington pass complete to Efton Chism III for 4 yds to the Oregn 24Similar
Q2 9:59
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+17
98.6%
Gunner Talkington pass complete to Freddie Roberson for 17 yds to the Oregn 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
98.6%
EASTERN WASH Penalty, Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on HANSEN, Wyatt enforced (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 14Similar
Q2 9:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
98.6%
EASTERN WASH Penalty, Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on HANSEN, Wyatt enforced (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 14Similar
Q2 9:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+7
98.7%
Gunner Talkington pass complete to Dylan Ingram for 7 yds to the Oregn 7Similar
Q2 6:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
97.2%
Jett Carpenter 7 Yd pass from Gunner Talkington (Jackson Cleaver Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 10TD11 plays · 72 yds · 2:4398% → 99%
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
97.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Dont'e Thornton for 15 yds to the Oregn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+22
97.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Dont'e Thornton for 22 yds to the EWash 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
97.9%
NIX, Bo pass to the right incomplete intended for THORNTON, Dont'e thrown to the EWU17. PENALTY ORE Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on TAIMANI, Taki enforced 5 yards from the EWU24 to the EWU29 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
97.9%
NIX, Bo pass to the right incomplete intended for THORNTON, Dont'e thrown to the EWU17. PENALTY ORE Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on TAIMANI, Taki enforced 5 yards from the EWU24 to the EWU29 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 5:57
1ST & 15
OPP 29
+11
97.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Cam McCormick for 11 yds to the EWash 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EWUDrive 11PUNT6 plays · -1 yds · 0:541% → 1%
Q2 2:29
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-2
99.2%
Gunner Talkington sacked by DJ Johnson for a loss of 2 yards to the EWash 24Similar
Q2 2:29
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-2
99.2%
Gunner Talkington sacked by DJ Johnson for a loss of 2 yards to the EWash 24Similar
Q2 2:20
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+5
99.2%
Nick Kokich punt for 46 yds , Kris Hutson returns for 5 yds to the Oregn 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 12TD20 plays · 65 yds · 2:2099% → 99%
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
50
+15
99.1%
NIX, Bo pass to the left incomplete intended for COTA, Chase thrown to the EWU36. PENALTY EWU Roughing the Passer on JOHNSON, Mitchell enforced 15 yards from the ORE50 to the EWU35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
50
+15
99.1%
NIX, Bo pass to the left incomplete intended for COTA, Chase thrown to the EWU36. PENALTY EWU Roughing the Passer on JOHNSON, Mitchell enforced 15 yards from the ORE50 to the EWU35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-10
99.4%
NIX, Bo pass up the middle complete for -5 yards to HUTSON, Kris caught at the EWU4 and advanced to the EWU9 (KING, Keshaun). PENALTY ORE Illegal Block in the Back on MATAVAO, Moliki enforced 10 yards from the EWU4 to the EWU14 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-10
99.4%
NIX, Bo pass up the middle complete for -5 yards to HUTSON, Kris caught at the EWU4 and advanced to the EWU9 (KING, Keshaun). PENALTY ORE Illegal Block in the Back on MATAVAO, Moliki enforced 10 yards from the EWU4 to the EWU14 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
0
99.4%
NIX, Bo pass up the middle incomplete intended for MATAVAO, Moliki thrown to the EWU4. PENALTY EWU Personal Foul on WILLIAMS, Ahmani enforced half the distance from the goal, 7 yards from the EWU14 to the EWU7 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
0
99.4%
NIX, Bo pass up the middle incomplete intended for MATAVAO, Moliki thrown to the EWU4. PENALTY EWU Personal Foul on WILLIAMS, Ahmani enforced half the distance from the goal, 7 yards from the EWU14 to the EWU7 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 13TD8 plays · 75 yds · 3:29100% → 100%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
99.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for no gain to the Oregn 37Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+39
99.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Sean Dollars for 39 yds to the EWash 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+15
99.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 15 yds to the EWash 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EWUDrive 14FUMBLE RETURN TD1 play · -25 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EWUDrive 15PUNT7 plays · 10 yds · 2:300% → 0%
Q3 11:18
2ND & 8
OWN 39
-2
99.8%
Gunner Talkington pass complete to Tuna Altahir for a loss of 2 yards Tuna Altahir fumbled, recovered by EWashSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 16TD9 plays · 78 yds · 3:10100% → 100%
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
99.8%
Ty Thompson pass complete to Josh Delgado for 12 yds to the Oregn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+17
99.8%
Ty Thompson pass complete to Dont'e Thornton for 17 yds to the EWash 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:48
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+13
99.8%
Ty Thompson pass complete to Byron Cardwell for 13 yds to the EWash 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EWUDrive 17TD12 plays · 73 yds · 3:110% → 0%
Q3 5:29
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+9
99.9%
Gunner Talkington pass complete to Jakobie James for 9 yds to the EWash 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
99.9%
Gunner Talkington pass complete to Efton Chism III for 9 yds to the EWash 48Similar
Q3 5:29
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+15
99.9%
OREGON Penalty, Targeting on LADUKE, Jackson enforced (Jackson LaDuke) to the Oregn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:29
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+6
99.8%
Gunner Talkington pass complete to Nolan Ulm for 6 yds to the Oregn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:29
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+6
99.8%
Gunner Talkington pass complete to Nolan Ulm for 6 yds to the Oregn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:18
4TH & 8
OPP 15
+15
99.9%
Freddie Roberson 15 Yd pass from Gunner Talkington (Jackson Cleaver Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 18TD12 plays · 76 yds · 5:03100% → 100%
Q3 2:10
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+6
99.9%
Ty Thompson pass complete to Dont'e Thornton for 6 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
Q3 2:10
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+15
99.9%
EASTERN WASH Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the EWash 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+6
99.9%
Kilohana Haasenritter run for 6 yds to the EWash 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 30
+15
99.9%
Ty Thompson pass complete to Caleb Chapman for 15 yds to the EWash 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EWUDrive 19PUNT9 plays · 35 yds · 3:410% → 0%
OREDrive 20PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 4:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:20
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+9
99.9%
Kilohana Haasenritter run for 9 yds to the Oregn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+1
100.0%
Jay Butterfield pass complete to Kilohana Haasenritter for 1 yd to the Oregn 37Similar
Q4 4:20
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
100.0%
Adam Barry punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Efton Chism III at the EWash 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:03
Jett Carpenter 7 Yd pass from Gunner Talkington (Jackson Cleaver Kick)
-1.4
TD · Q2 3:14
Byron Cardwell 13 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick)
+1.3
TD · Q2 14:08
Terrance Ferguson 19 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick)
+1.2