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UNLV

UNLV 14 at California 20

CAL
2022 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2022 · California Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · CAL
modelCAL aheadUNLV aheadconfidence bandkey playCAL scoreUNLV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:06 · Dario Longhetto 43 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+28.0+14.00−14.0−28.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 153Pregame prior+4.0Home team on offense+15.8Garbage-time factor+9.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.0Score differential+2.1Blowout margin−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:55: Doug Brumfield pass complete to Kyle Williams for 11 yds for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK) — UNLV win probability +4.0 pts (now 25%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 8:21: Dario Longhetto 30 yd FG GOOD — CAL win probability +5.7 pts (now 88%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:04: Aidan Robbins run for 31 yds for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK) — UNLV win probability +15.9 pts (now 30%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 13:38: PENALTY CAL False Start (Terry II,Jermaine) 5 yards from CAL44 to CAL39. NO PLAY. — CAL win probability +7.2 pts (now 85%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:46: DeCarlos Brooks run for no gain to the Cal 8 — CAL win probability +8.8 pts (now 93%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CAL made the numbers' call on 7 of 9UNLV made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 14:10UNLV 4th & 7 at UNLV 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:50UNLV 4th & 4 at UNLV 44, down 7
    Close callPunted · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:52CAL 4th & 2 at UNLV 12, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    79.9%−0.2
    86% to make
    Punt
    78.2%−1.9
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:52UNLV 4th & 1 at UNLV 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    17.4%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:52CAL 4th & 4 at UNLV 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    79.6%−0.3
    54% to make
    Punt
    79.2%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:20UNLV 4th & 1 at UNLV 24, down 7
    Close callPunted · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.0%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:58CAL 4th & 3 at UNLV 3, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 80.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.8%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.9%−0.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    74.7%−5.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:04UNLV 4th & 12 at UNLV 35, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.9%−1.0
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:12CAL 4th & 13 at midfield, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.5%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:21CAL 4th & 10 at UNLV 12, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.0%−0.9
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.8%
    86% to make
    Punt
    78.3%−5.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:59UNLV 4th & 7 at CAL 39, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    24.1%−1.3
    36% to make
    Punt
    24.3%−1.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:52CAL 4th & 16 at UNLV 48, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.5%−3.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:38UNLV 4th & 2 at CAL 45, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    22.5%−4.5
    25% to make
    Punt
    24.5%−2.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:26CAL 4th & 14 at CAL 40, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.6%−2.9
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:10UNLV 4th & 12 at UNLV 15, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%−2.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:10UNLV 4th & 12 at UNLV 15, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%−2.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:06CAL 4th & 2 at UNLV 25, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.4%−1.7
    66% to make
    Punt
    77.5%−9.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:46UNLV 4th & 8 at CAL 8, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.5%
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    14.8%−3.7
    90% to make
    Punt
    6.0%−12.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:46UNLV 4th & 8 at CAL 8, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.5%
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    14.8%−3.7
    90% to make
    Punt
    6.0%−12.5
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:03CAL 4th & 7 at CAL 11, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.0%−1.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CAL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UNLV made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 11:08CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:52CAL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:55UNLV Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:04UNLV Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNLVDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5022% → 23%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
77.7%
Aidan Robbins run for 3 yds to the UNLV 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
77.7%
Doug Brumfield pass incomplete to Kyle WilliamsSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
77.7%
Doug Brumfield pass incomplete to Kyle WilliamsSimilar
Q1 14:10
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
77.5%
Marshall Nichols punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cal 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 2TD
7 plays · 55 yds · 3:0278% → 78%
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-15
77.5%
Shotgun Plummer,Jack pass incomplete short right to Sturdivant,J.Michael PENALTY CAL Block Below Waist (Moore,Damien) 15 yards from CAL45 to CAL30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:10
1ST & 25
OWN 30
+1
77.5%
Jack Plummer run for 1 yd to the Cal 31Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 24
OWN 31
+11
77.5%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Mavin Anderson for 11 yds to the Cal 42Similar
Q1 14:10
3RD & 13
OWN 42
+18
77.5%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 18 yds to the UNLV 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
77.5%
Damien Moore run for 1 yd to the UNLV 39Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+37
77.5%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 37 yds to the UNLV 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
78.1%
Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:1822% → 22%
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
77.7%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Ricky White for 13 yds to the UNLV 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
77.6%
Doug Brumfield pass incomplete to Jeff WeimerSimilar
Q1 11:08
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+6
77.6%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Jeff Weimer for 6 yds to the UNLV 44Similar
Q1 11:08
3RD & 4
OWN 44
0
77.5%
Doug Brumfield pass incomplete to Kyle WilliamsSimilar
Q1 9:50
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
77.7%
Marshall Nichols punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Hunter at the Cal 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 4TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 5:5878% → 81%
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
77.9%
Damien Moore run for 1 yd to the Cal 21Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+13
77.9%
Jack Plummer pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 13 yds to the Cal 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
77.9%
Jack Plummer run for 2 yds to the Cal 36Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+6
78.0%
Damien Moore run for 6 yds to the Cal 42Similar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+7
78.1%
Damien Moore run for 7 yds to the Cal 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
78.2%
Shotgun Plummer,Jack pass incomplete short left to Ott,Jaydn PENALTY UNLV Personal Foul (Muavesi,Waisale) 15 yards from CAL49 to UNLV36, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+16
78.3%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Keleki Latu for 16 yds to the UNLV 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-10
78.3%
Jack Plummer sacked by Waisale Muavesi for a loss of 10 yards to the UNLV 30 Jack Plummer fumbled, recovered by Cal Jack Plummer , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 20
OPP 30
+6
78.1%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Mavin Anderson for 6 yds to the UNLV 24Similar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 14
OPP 24
+12
78.0%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 12 yds to the UNLV 12Similar
Q1 3:52
4TH & 2
OPP 12
+12
81.2%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 12 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 5TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:5720% → 25%
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
80.3%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Ricky White for 9 yds to the UNLV 34Similar
Q1 3:52
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+1
79.9%
Doug Brumfield run for 1 yd to the UNLV 33 Doug Brumfield fumbled, recovered by UNLV Doug BrumfieldSimilar
Q1 3:52
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
80.1%
Aidan Robbins run for 1 yd to the UNLV 34Similar
Q1 3:52
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
80.2%
Doug Brumfield run for 2 yds to the UNLV 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+23
80.0%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Ricky White for 23 yds to the Cal 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+14
79.6%
Aidan Robbins run for 14 yds to the Cal 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+17
79.2%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Jeff Weimer for 17 yds to the Cal 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
79.4%
Aidan Robbins run for 1 yd to the Cal 11Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
75.5%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Kyle Williams for 11 yds for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 6INT
17 plays · 85 yds · 6:3477% → 79%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+5
77.3%
Jaydn Ott run for 5 yds to the Cal 10Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 5
OWN 10
+11
77.4%
Jaydn Ott run for 11 yds to the Cal 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
77.5%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jaydn OttSimilar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+2
77.4%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 2 yds to the Cal 23Similar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+10
77.0%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Mavin Anderson for 10 yds to the Cal 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
77.7%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 5 yds to the Cal 38Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+10
78.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 10 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
78.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Plummer,Jack pass incomplete short right to Anderson,Mavin PENALTY UNLV Pass Interference (Morgan,Jordyn) 15 yards from CAL48 to UNLV37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
78.7%
DeCarlos Brooks run for no gain to the UNLV 37Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-4
78.6%
Jack Plummer sacked by Darius Johnson for a loss of 4 yards to the UNLV 41Similar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 14
OPP 41
+10
77.6%
Jack Plummer run for 10 yds to the UNLV 31Similar
Q2 14:52
4TH & 4
OPP 31
+17
77.8%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Mavin Anderson for 17 yds to the UNLV 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
78.7%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Mavin Anderson for 4 yds to the UNLV 10Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 6
OPP 10
0
79.6%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Mavin AndersonSimilar
Q2 8:18
3RD & 6
OPP 10
0
79.1%
Jack Plummer pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5822% → 20%
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
78.3%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Aidan Robbins for no gain to the UNLV 15Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+5
78.5%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Aidan Robbins for 5 yds to the UNLV 20Similar
Q2 8:18
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+4
78.9%
Doug Brumfield run for 4 yds to the UNLV 24Similar
Q2 6:20
4TH & 1
OWN 24
0
79.6%
Marshall Nichols punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Hunter at the Cal 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 8FG
10 plays · 65 yds · 4:2279% → 81%
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+20
78.9%
Mason Mangum run for 5 yds to the UNLV 37 for a 1ST down UNLV Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Shelton,Elijah) 15 yards from CAL37 to UNLV48, 1ST DOWN. (Elijah Shelton) to the UNLV 48Similar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
80.1%
Shotgun Plummer,Jack pass incomplete short left to Ott,Jaydn QB hurried by Shelton,Elijah PENALTY UNLV Pass Interference (Beaudry,Kyle) 15 yards from UNLV48 to UNLV33, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
80.3%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 8 yds to the UNLV 25Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+7
80.3%
Jaydn Ott run for 7 yds to the UNLV 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
80.3%
Jack Plummer pass complete to DeCarlos Brooks for 2 yds to the UNLV 20Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 12
OPP 20
+10
80.3%
Shotgun Plummer,Jack pass incomplete short middle to Sturdivant,J.Michael PENALTY UNLV Pass Interference (Williams,Nohl) 10 yards from UNLV20 to UNLV10, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
80.3%
Jack Plummer pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for no gain to the UNLV 10Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
80.3%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 5 yds to the UNLV 5Similar
Q2 6:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
79.8%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 2 yds to the UNLV 3Similar
Q2 1:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
80.5%
Dario Longhetto 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 9PUNT
11 plays · 10 yds · 0:5418% → 18%
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.6%
Doug Brumfield pass incomplete to Ricky WhiteSimilar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
81.8%
Doug Brumfield run for 7 yds to the UNLV 32Similar
Q2 1:58
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
81.5%
Aidan Robbins run for no gain to the UNLV 32Similar
Q2 1:34
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
82.2%
Nichols,Marshall punt 44 yards to the CAL24 Hunter,Jeremiah return 11 yards to the CAL35 (Thompkins,Fred), out of bounds PENALTY CAL Running Into The Kicker declined CAL Offside (Williams,Miles) 5 yards from UNLV32 to UNLV37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
81.1%
Doug Brumfield pass incomplete to Ricky WhiteSimilar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-5
81.4%
Doug Brumfield sacked by Xavier Carlton for a loss of 5 yards to the UNLV 32Similar
Q2 1:21
3RD & 15
OWN 32
+3
82.1%
Doug Brumfield run for 3 yds to the UNLV 35Similar
Q2 1:04
4TH & 12
OWN 35
+13
82.3%
Marshall Nichols punt for 56 yds , Jeremiah Hunter returns for 13 yds to the Cal 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 0:5283% → 82%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+31
83.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Mason Mangum for 31 yds to the UNLV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-10
84.4%
Shotgun Plummer,Jack pass complete deep middle to Brooks,DeCarlos for 15 yards to the UNLV32 (Williams,Nohl) PENALTY CAL Holding (Cindric,Matthew) 10 yards from UNLV47 to CAL43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 20
OWN 43
0
83.7%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to J. Michael SturdivantSimilar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 20
OWN 43
0
83.6%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Mavin AndersonSimilar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 20
OWN 43
+7
82.9%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:12
4TH & 13
50
0
81.5%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
82.5%
Doug Brumfield run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 12FG
16 plays · 67 yds · 6:3482% → 88%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+21
81.9%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Keleki Latu for 21 yds to the Cal 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
82.9%
Damien Moore run for 7 yds to the Cal 49Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+4
83.1%
Damien Moore run for 4 yds to the UNLV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
83.1%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to J. Michael SturdivantSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+1
83.0%
Jack Plummer pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 1 yd to the UNLV 46Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 9
OPP 46
+10
82.2%
Jack Plummer pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 10 yds to the UNLV 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
83.2%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Monroe Young for 1 yd to the UNLV 35Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+1
83.2%
Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd to the UNLV 36Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 10
OPP 36
0
82.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Plummer,Jack pass incomplete short right to Hunter,Jeremiah broken up by Williams,Nohl PENALTY UNLV Pass Interference (Williams,Nohl) 11 yard from UNLV36 to UNLV25, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
83.3%
Jack Plummer pass complete to DeCarlos Brooks for 4 yds to the UNLV 21Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+9
83.3%
Jack Plummer pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 9 yds to the UNLV 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
83.3%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 4 yds to the UNLV 8Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+4
83.3%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 4 yds to the UNLV 12Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 10
OPP 12
0
82.6%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jeremiah HunterSimilar
Q3 8:21
4TH & 10
OPP 12
+30
88.3%
Dario Longhetto 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 13TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:1712% → 30%
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
87.9%
Aidan Robbins run for 5 yds to the UNLV 30Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+33
86.9%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Kyle Williams for 33 yds to the Cal 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
86.1%
Aidan Robbins run for 6 yds to the Cal 31Similar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+31
70.2%
Aidan Robbins run for 31 yds for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 14DOWNS
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:0427% → 26%
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
72.6%
Aidan Robbins run for 7 yds to the Cal 46Similar
Q3 7:03
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+4
71.6%
Aidan Robbins run for 4 yds to the Cal 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
72.1%
Doug Brumfield pass incomplete to Kyle WilliamsSimilar
Q3 7:03
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+3
72.3%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Aidan Robbins for 3 yds to the Cal 39Similar
Q3 7:03
3RD & 7
OPP 39
0
72.5%
Doug Brumfield pass incomplete to Kyle WilliamsSimilar
Q3 4:59
4TH & 7
OPP 39
+4
74.5%
Doug Brumfield run for 4 yds to the Cal 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:0778% → 80%
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
77.7%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to J. Michael SturdivantSimilar
Q3 4:59
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+23
77.5%
Jaydn Ott run for 23 yds to the UNLV 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
79.9%
Mavin Anderson run for 3 yds to the UNLV 39Similar
Q3 4:59
2ND & 7
OPP 39
0
79.9%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jaydn OttSimilar
Q3 4:59
3RD & 7
OPP 39
-9
79.2%
Jack Plummer sacked by Eliel Ehimare for a loss of 9 yards to the UNLV 48Similar
Q3 2:52
4TH & 16
OPP 48
0
80.0%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 16DOWNS
8 plays · 36 yds · 4:1421% → 23%
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
79.1%
Aidan Robbins run for 7 yds to the UNLV 27Similar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+4
78.0%
Aidan Robbins run for 4 yds to the UNLV 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
78.5%
Courtney Reese run for 9 yds to the UNLV 40Similar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+7
76.3%
Courtney Reese run for 7 yds to the UNLV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
76.1%
Courtney Reese run for 6 yds to the UNLV 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 41
+10
78.7%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Nick Williams for 10 yds to the Cal 49Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+4
76.0%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Nick Williams for 4 yds to the Cal 45Similar
Q4 13:38
4TH & 2
OPP 45
+1
77.4%
Doug Brumfield run for 1 yd to the Cal 44 UNLV Penalty, Defensive Holding (Kyle Williams) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:1285% → 83%
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
84.6%
PENALTY CAL False Start (Terry II,Jermaine) 5 yards from CAL44 to CAL39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 15
OWN 39
+7
83.7%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Damien Moore for 7 yds to the Cal 46Similar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 8
OWN 46
0
84.6%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to J. Michael SturdivantSimilar
Q4 13:38
3RD & 8
OWN 46
-6
83.1%
Jack Plummer sacked by Adam Plant Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the Cal 40Similar
Q4 12:26
4TH & 14
OWN 40
0
82.7%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Nohl Williams at the UNLV 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · -17 yds · 1:1620% → 17%
Q4 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-9
79.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Robbins,Aidan rush left for 2 yards gain to the UNLV19 (Sirmon,Jackson), out of bounds PENALTY UNLV Holding (McDaniel,Daviyon) 9 yards from UNLV17 to UNLV08. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:26
1ST & 19
OWN 8
0
80.7%
Doug Brumfield pass incomplete to Ricky WhiteSimilar
Q4 12:26
2ND & 19
OWN 8
+7
80.8%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Jeff Weimer for 7 yds to the UNLV 15Similar
Q4 12:26
3RD & 12
OWN 15
0
81.0%
Doug Brumfield pass incomplete to Kyle WilliamsSimilar
Q4 11:10
4TH & 12
OWN 15
0
83.2%
Marshall Nichols punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Hunter at the Cal 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
4TH & 12
OWN 15
0
83.2%
Marshall Nichols punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Hunter at the UNLV 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 19MISSED FG
9 plays · 20 yds · 3:0488% → 87%
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
88.4%
PENALTY CAL False Start (Session,T.J.) 5 yards from UNLV45 to UNLV50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:10
1ST & 15
50
+5
87.8%
Jaydn Ott run for 5 yds to the UNLV 45Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+4
88.3%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 4 yds to the UNLV 49Similar
Q4 11:10
3RD & 14
OPP 49
+16
86.5%
Jack Plummer pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 16 yds to the UNLV 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
89.0%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Keleki Latu for 3 yds to the UNLV 30Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 7
OPP 30
0
89.0%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Mavin AndersonSimilar
Q4 8:54
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+5
88.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Keleki Latu for 5 yds to the UNLV 25Similar
Q4 8:06
4TH & 2
OPP 25
+43
87.4%
Dario Longhetto 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 20DOWNS
16 plays · 67 yds · 5:2017% → 15%
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
82.6%
Aidan Robbins run for 3 yds to the UNLV 28Similar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
81.9%
Doug Brumfield run for 10 yds to the UNLV 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
81.0%
Doug Brumfield pass incomplete to Ricky WhiteSimilar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+19
81.3%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Jeff Weimer for 19 yds to the Cal 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
78.4%
Courtney Reese run for 1 yd to the Cal 42Similar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+1
78.6%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Courtney Reese for 1 yd to the Cal 41Similar
Q4 8:06
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+8
79.1%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Kyle Williams for 8 yds to the Cal 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
76.5%
Aidan Robbins run for no gain to the Cal 33Similar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+23
76.7%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Senika McKie for 23 yds to the Cal 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
75.8%
Doug Brumfield pass incomplete to Aidan RobbinsSimilar
Q4 8:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
75.8%
Doug Brumfield run for 2 yds to the Cal 8Similar
Q4 2:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
78.6%
Doug Brumfield pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
0
84.6%
Doug Brumfield pass incomplete to Kyle WilliamsSimilar
Q4 2:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
0
84.6%
Doug Brumfield pass incomplete to Kyle WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:4393% → 95%
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
93.4%
DeCarlos Brooks run for no gain to the Cal 8Similar
Q4 2:42
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+2
93.8%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 2 yds to the Cal 10Similar
Q4 2:42
3RD & 8
OWN 10
+1
93.6%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 1 yd to the Cal 11Similar
Q4 1:03
4TH & 7
OWN 11
0
95.2%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Nohl Williams at the UNLV 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 22INT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:0311% → 8%
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+14
89.0%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Ricky White for 14 yds to the Cal 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-13
86.8%
Doug Brumfield sacked by Henry Ikahihifo for a loss of 13 yards to the UNLV 45Similar
Q4 1:03
2ND & 23
OWN 45
-4
91.2%
Doug Brumfield sacked by Myles Williams for a loss of 4 yards to the UNLV 41Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 27
OWN 41
0
91.6%
Doug Brumfield pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:04
Aidan Robbins run for 31 yds for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK)
-15.9
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:46
DeCarlos Brooks run for no gain to the Cal 8
+8.8
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+8.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com