2022 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2022 · Gesa Field
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Win probability · WSU
modelWSU aheadIDHO aheadconfidence bandkey playWSU scoreIDHO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:05 · Gevani McCoy pass complete to Jordan Dwyer for 23 yds for a TD, (Ricardo Chavez KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 3:13: Cameron Ward pass complete to Renard Bell for 3 yds for a TD, (Dean Janikowski KICK) — WSU win probability +3.8 pts (now 87%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
- TD · Q3 8:17: Cameron Ward pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 13 yds for a TD, (Dean Janikowski KICK) — WSU win probability +5.2 pts (now 91%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 10:33: Cameron Ward pass complete to Jaylen Jenkins for 8 yds for a TD, (Dean Janikowski KICK) — WSU win probability +5.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 6:05: Gevani McCoy pass complete to Jordan Dwyer for 23 yds for a TD, (Ricardo Chavez KICK) — IDHO win probability +11.8 pts (now 18%) (top driver: IDHO has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 5:57: Nakia Watson run for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down — WSU win probability +9.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8IDHO made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
- Q1 11:21IDHO 4th & 9 at IDHO 28, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snapGo for it4.9%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.0%average punt
- Q1 9:52WSU 4th & 2 at WSU 46, down 7Close callPunted · 94.3% before the snapGo for it94.4%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.3%−0.1average punt
- Q1 9:52IDHO 4th & 5 at WSU 47, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.8%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt5.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 3:28IDHO 4th & 10 at WSU 10, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.5% before the snapGo for it8.3%−0.124% to convertField goalTheir call8.4%88% to makePunt7.7%−0.8average punt
- Q1 2:18WSU 4th & 6 at WSU 29, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.1% before the snapGo for it90.1%−0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.2%average punt
- Q1 2:18WSU 4th & 6 at WSU 29, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.1% before the snapGo for it90.1%−0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.2%average punt
- Q1 0:00IDHO 4th & 1 at IDHO 39, up 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt10.5%−0.4average punt
- Q2 12:55IDHO 4th & 3 at IDHO 49, up 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call12.3%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt12.1%−0.2average punt
- Q2 10:39WSU 4th & 10 at IDHO 34, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.4% before the snapGo for it85.1%−<0.130% to convertField goalTheir call85.2%47% to makePunt85.0%−0.2average punt
- Q2 6:19IDHO 4th & 13 at IDHO 42, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snapGo for it18.1%−0.820% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.9%average punt
- Q2 0:06WSU 4th & 17 at IDHO 17, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.8% before the snapGo for it80.0%−1.313% to convertField goalTheir call81.3%80% to makePunt78.2%−3.1average punt
- Q3 10:46IDHO 4th & 2 at WSU 42, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call21.1%57% to convertField goal18.9%−2.230% to makePunt19.6%−1.5average punt
- Q3 6:36IDHO 4th & 4 at IDHO 31, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.8% before the snapGo for it12.1%−0.548% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.6%average punt
- Q3 5:10WSU 4th & 12 at WSU 13, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.1% before the snapGo for it87.0%−2.022% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.1%average punt
- Q3 2:11IDHO 4th & 14 at WSU 43, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.8% before the snapGo for it12.4%−1.019% to convertField goal12.6%−0.728% to makePuntTheir call13.4%average punt
- Q3 1:21WSU 4th & 2 at WSU 28, up 7Close callPunted · 89.2% before the snapGo for it90.3%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.4%−0.8average punt
- Q4 14:48IDHO 4th & 5 at IDHO 27, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.1% before the snapGo for it12.3%−0.540% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.9%average punt
- Q4 11:40IDHO 4th & 14 at IDHO 48, down 7Numbers favored punt by 1.7 ptsWent for it · 11.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.1%−1.719% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt11.7%average punt
- Q4 10:33IDHO 4th & 8 at IDHO 27, down 14Close callWent for it · 4.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.5%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt4.6%average punt
- Q4 0:53WSU 4th & 6 at IDHO 6, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.2% before the snapGo for it94.9%−0.231% to convertField goalTheir call95.1%91% to makePunt93.2%−1.9average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3IDHO made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q1 11:11IDHO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call5.3%97% to makeGo for two5.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:13WSU Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.3%97% to makeGo for two83.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:17WSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.5%97% to makeGo for two87.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:33WSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call95.2%−0.197% to makeGo for two95.3%45% to convert
- Q4 6:05IDHO Touchdown, down 8 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call8.0%−0.397% to makeGo for two8.4%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWSUDrive 1FUMBLE6 plays · 47 yds · 15:0096% → 93%
IDHODrive 2PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 1:584% → 4%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 3FUMBLE RETURN TD1 play · 3 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1995% → 95%
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 0
+38
95.4%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Lincoln Victor for 38 yds to the WshSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
95.5%
Cameron Ward pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 3 yds to the WshSt 41Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+5
95.5%
Cameron Ward pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 5 yds to the WshSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 5FG12 plays · 69 yds · 6:245% → 8%
Q1 9:52
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+15
95.1%
WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Roughing the Passer on JACKSON, Brennan enforced (15 Yards) to the Idaho 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-3
95.0%
Gevani McCoy sacked by Daiyan Henley and Travion Brown for a loss of 3 yards to the Idaho 45Similar
Q1 9:52
4TH & 5
OPP 47
+42
95.0%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Jermaine Jackson for 42 yds to the WshSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-3
94.9%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Jordan Dwyer for a loss of 3 yards to the WshSt 13Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+3
95.0%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Gevani McCoy for 3 yds to the WshSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1092% → 91%
Q1 3:28
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-5
92.4%
Cameron Ward sacked by Juliano Falaniko and Leo Tamba for a loss of 5 yards to the WshSt 29Similar
Q1 2:18
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
91.2%
Nick Haberer punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jermaine Jackson at the Idaho 30Similar
Q1 2:18
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
91.2%
Nick Haberer punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jermaine Jackson at the Idaho 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 7DOWNS10 plays · 19 yds · 4:238% → 11%
WSUDrive 8MISSED FG8 plays · 15 yds · 2:2189% → 87%
Q2 13:00
3RD & 10
OPP 34
0
89.0%
WARD, Cameron pass to the left complete for 6 yards to STRIBLING, De'Zhaun caught at the IDA28 and advanced to the IDA28, out of bounds. PENALTY WSU Holding on STEPHENS, Grant IDA Roughing the Passer on FA'AVAE, Fa'Avae , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 9PUNT7 plays · 8 yds · 4:2013% → 18%
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
86.3%
Gevani McCoy sacked by Jaden Hicks for a loss of 2 yards to the Idaho 43Similar
Q2 10:39
3RD & 12
OWN 43
-1
86.9%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Daseau Puffer for a loss of 1 yard to the Idaho 42Similar
Q2 6:19
4TH & 13
OWN 42
0
82.1%
Ricardo Chavez punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Drake Owen at the WshSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 10TD9 plays · 80 yds · 3:0682% → 87%
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
81.9%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Donovan Ollie for 6 yds to the WshSt 26Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+19
82.1%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Donovan Ollie for 19 yds to the WshSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
82.7%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Renard Bell for 4 yds to the WshSt 49Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+18
83.0%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Donovan Ollie for 18 yds to the Idaho 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+12
83.8%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Donovan Ollie for 12 yds to the Idaho 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
83.8%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Tsion Nunnally for 5 yds to the Idaho 16Similar
Q2 6:19
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+13
83.3%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Nakia Watson for 13 yds to the Idaho 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
87.1%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Renard Bell for 3 yds for a TD, (Dean Janikowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 11INT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5815% → 14%
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
85.8%
WARD, Cameron pass to the left incomplete intended for NUNNALLY, Tsion thrown to the IDA5. PENALTY IDA Pass Interference on BERTRAM, Matthias enforced 15 yards to the IDA30 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-15
86.3%
WARD, Cameron pass to the left complete for 12 yards to PETERS, Orion caught at the IDA29 and advanced to the IDA18 (BERTRAM, Matthias). PENALTY WSU Pass Interference on BELL, Renard enforced 15 yards to the IDA45 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 12FG8 plays · 28 yds · 2:0985% → 86%
Q2 2:15
1ST & 25
OPP 45
+8
84.9%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Orion Peters for 8 yds to the Idaho 37Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 17
OPP 37
+11
84.9%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Donovan Ollie for 11 yds to the Idaho 26Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
86.3%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Donovan Ollie for a loss of 2 yards to the Idaho 11Similar
Q2 0:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
-6
84.7%
Cameron Ward sacked by Fa'Avae Fa'Avae for a loss of 6 yards to the Idaho 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 14DOWNS8 plays · 33 yds · 4:1416% → 19%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
84.4%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Connor Whitney for 13 yds to the Idaho 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
83.5%
Anthony Woods run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
-5
82.6%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Hayden Hatten for a loss of 5 yards to the Idaho 45Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 47
+11
84.3%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Terez Traynor for 11 yds to the WshSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 15TD8 plays · 58 yds · 2:2985% → 91%
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
84.6%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Renard Bell for 12 yds to the Idaho 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:46
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+4
85.2%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Nakia Watson for 4 yds to the Idaho 42Similar
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+17
85.8%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Lincoln Victor for 17 yds to the Idaho 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:17
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+13
91.0%
Cameron Ward pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 13 yds for a TD, (Dean Janikowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 16PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:4111% → 11%
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
88.8%
CJ Jordan sacked by Andrew Edson for a loss of 2 yards to the Idaho 23Similar
Q3 8:17
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+8
89.5%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Hayden Hatten for 8 yds to the Idaho 31Similar
Q3 6:36
4TH & 4
OWN 31
-4
88.9%
Ricardo Chavez punt for 50 yds , Drake Owen returns for a loss of 4 yards to the WshSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 17PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 1:2690% → 89%
Q3 6:36
3RD & 8
OWN 17
-4
89.6%
Cameron Ward sacked by Leo Tamba for a loss of 4 yards to the WshSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 18PUNT6 plays · 14 yds · 2:5913% → 13%
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+18
86.8%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Terez Traynor for 18 yds to the WshSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:10
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+1
85.8%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Jermaine Jackson for 1 yd to the WshSt 36Similar
Q3 2:23
3RD & 7
OPP 36
-7
84.6%
Gevani McCoy sacked by Daiyan Henley and Andrew Edson for a loss of 7 yards to the WshSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:5089% → 89%
Q3 1:21
4TH & 2
OWN 28
+49
89.1%
Nick Haberer punt for 49 yds , Jermaine Jackson returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Idaho 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 20PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3313% → 12%
Q4 14:48
4TH & 5
OWN 27
0
88.1%
Ricardo Chavez punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Drake Owen at the WshSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 21FUMBLE1 play · 8 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
91.4%
Nakia Watson run for 8 yds to the WshSt 48 Nakia Watson fumbled, recovered by Idaho Devante KeysSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 22DOWNS6 plays · -13 yds · 14:1816% → 14%
WSUDrive 23TD5 plays · 39 yds · 1:0792% → 97%
Q4 11:40
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+15
91.5%
IDAHO Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jeremiah Salaam) to the Idaho 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
91.8%
Cameron Ward pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 9 yds to the Idaho 15Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 1
OPP 15
+7
91.8%
Cameron Ward pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 7 yds to the Idaho 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
96.9%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Jaylen Jenkins for 8 yds for a TD, (Dean Janikowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 24TD8 plays · 75 yds · 4:285% → 18%
Q4 10:33
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
94.4%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Anthony Woods for no gain to the Idaho 27Similar
Q4 10:33
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
94.9%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Hayden Hatten for no gain to the Idaho 27Similar
Q4 10:33
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+35
95.0%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Jermaine Jackson for 35 yds to the WshSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:33
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+4
93.8%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Hayden Hatten for 4 yds to the WshSt 34Similar
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
82.0%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Jordan Dwyer for 23 yds for a TD, (Ricardo Chavez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 25MISSED FG14 plays · 68 yds · 5:0491% → 97%
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
50
+5
92.6%
Cameron Ward pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 5 yds to the Idaho 45Similar
Q4 5:57
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+15
92.6%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Renard Bell for 15 yds to the Idaho 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
92.8%
Cameron Ward pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 9 yds to the Idaho 13Similar
Q4 2:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
95.3%
WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Delay Of Game (Cameron Ward) to the Idaho 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 26INT6 plays · 52 yds · 0:418% → 16%
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+19
92.4%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Jordan Dwyer for 19 yds to the Idaho 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:53
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+28
92.0%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Jermaine Jackson for 28 yds to the WshSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
85.9%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Roshaun Johnson for 5 yds to the WshSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+15.7
TD · Q4 6:05
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Jordan Dwyer for 23 yds for a TD, (Ricardo Chavez KICK)
-11.8
KEY PLAY · Q4 5:57
Nakia Watson run for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
+9.3