2022 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2022 · Husky Stadium
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Win probability · WASH
modelWASH aheadKENT aheadconfidence bandkey playWASH scoreKENT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Gavin Garcia run for 4 yds to the KntSt 12 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 5:08: Collin Schlee pass complete to Devontez Walker for 47 yds for a TD, (Andrew Glass KICK) — KENT win probability +1.7 pts (now 8%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:28: Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 4 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK) — WASH win probability +3.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- FG · Q2 4:48: Andrew Glass 42 yd FG GOOD — KENT win probability +2.1 pts (now 6%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:06: Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 13 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK) — WASH win probability +4.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:12: Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Glass KICK) — KENT win probability +2.8 pts (now 4%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WASH made the numbers' call on 6 of 6KENT made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
- Q1 12:50WASH 4th & 1 at KENT 28, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call92.5%71% to convertField goal92.3%−0.160% to makePunt92.0%−0.5average punt
- Q1 9:42KENT 4th & 1 at KENT 43, down 7Close callPunted · 7.9% before the snapGo for it7.9%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.8%−0.1average punt
- Q1 9:42WASH 4th & 1 at WASH 32, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call92.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt92.1%−0.1average punt
- Q2 13:51KENT 4th & 16 at KENT 47, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snapGo for it7.4%−0.516% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.9%average punt
- Q2 4:48KENT 4th & 25 at WASH 25, down 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.0% before the snapGo for it3.4%−0.66% to convertField goalTheir call4.0%66% to makePunt2.6%−1.4average punt
- Q2 2:56KENT 4th & 7 at WASH 22, down 18Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.6% before the snapGo for it6.1%−0.236% to convertField goalTheir call6.3%72% to makePunt4.3%−2.1average punt
- Q2 0:24WASH 4th & 10 at KENT 20, up 15Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.2% before the snapGo for it92.9%−0.328% to convertField goalTheir call93.2%75% to makePunt92.3%−0.9average punt
- Q3 1:11WASH 4th & 8 at WASH 7, up 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snapGo for it99.2%−0.231% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.4%average punt
- Q4 15:00KENT 4th & 4 at WASH 27, down 25Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.7%48% to convertField goal0.7%−0.162% to makePunt0.1%−0.7average punt
- Q4 7:47KENT 4th & 6 at WASH 29, down 25Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.3%−0.140% to convertField goal0.5%58% to makePunt0.1%−0.4average punt
- Q4 5:25WASH 4th & 8 at WASH 48, up 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.7%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.7%average punt
- Q4 1:29WASH 4th & 2 at KENT 2, up 25Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.8%48% to convertField goal99.7%−0.194% to makePunt99.3%−0.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WASH made the numbers' call on 6 of 6KENT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 12:50WASH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.6%97% to makeGo for two92.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:25WASH Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.5%97% to makeGo for two92.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:08KENT Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call8.6%97% to makeGo for two8.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:18WASH Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.4%97% to makeGo for two92.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:28WASH Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.5%97% to makeGo for two96.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:06WASH Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.1%97% to makeGo for two98.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:12KENT Touchdown, down 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call2.1%97% to makeGo for two2.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:50WASH Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartKENTDrive 1INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:007% → 7%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 2TD4 plays · 37 yds · 1:5493% → 93%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 3PUNT8 plays · 19 yds · 3:027% → 7%
WASHDrive 4TD12 plays · 90 yds · 4:1793% → 94%
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
92.8%
PENALTY WASH False Start (Fautanu,Troy) 5 yards from WASH10 to WASH05. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:42
1ST & 15
OWN 5
+18
92.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 18 yds to the Wash 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+20
92.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 20 yds to the KntSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+8
92.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Will Nixon for 8 yds to the KntSt 36Similar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
93.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Taj Davis for 32 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 5TD2 plays · 47 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
91.6%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Devontez Walker for 47 yds for a TD, (Andrew Glass KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 6TD12 plays · 75 yds · 3:4492% → 93%
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
91.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Will Nixon for 7 yds to the Wash 32Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
92.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 6 yds to the Wash 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+22
92.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 22 yds to the KntSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
92.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 1 yd to the KntSt 39Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+7
92.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Devin Culp for 7 yds to the KntSt 32Similar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+10
92.3%
Shotgun Penix Jr.,Michael pass incomplete short left to Davis,Taj PENALTY KSU Holding (Blue,Capone) 10 yards from KSU26 to KSU16, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+12
92.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Cameron Davis for 12 yds to the KntSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 7PUNT9 plays · 31 yds · 2:227% → 8%
Q1 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 20
+33
92.6%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Dante Cephas for 33 yds to the Wash 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-5
92.2%
PENALTY KSU False Start (Ratliff,Elijah) 5 yards from WASH47 to KSU48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:51
4TH & 16
OWN 47
0
92.5%
Josh Smith punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Giles Jackson at the Wash 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 8TD11 plays · 83 yds · 5:2393% → 97%
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+19
92.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 19 yds to the Wash 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
92.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Will Nixon for 7 yds to the Wash 43Similar
Q2 13:51
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+15
93.1%
Penix Jr.,Michael pass incomplete short left to Culp,Devin PENALTY KSU Pass Interference (Miller,D.J.) 15 yards from WASH43 to KSU42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:51
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+15
93.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 15 yds to the KntSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
93.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 6 yds to the KntSt 19Similar
Q2 8:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
96.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 4 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 9FG15 plays · 50 yds · 3:404% → 6%
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+29
95.6%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Dante Cephas for 29 yds to the Wash 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+12
95.1%
Shotgun Schlee,Collin pass incomplete short right to Vance,Isaac, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY WASH Pass Interference (Williams,Cameron) 12 yards from WASH22 to WASH10, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-4
95.1%
Collin Schlee sacked by Bralen Trice for a loss of 4 yards to the Wash 10Similar
Q2 5:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
-15
95.6%
Shotgun Schlee,Collin pass complete short right to James,Raymond for 0 yards to the WASH10 PENALTY KSU Pass Interference (James,Raymond) 15 yards from WASH10 to WASH25. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 10FG6 plays · 13 yds · 1:417% → 8%
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
92.7%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Devontez Walker for 10 yds to the Wash 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 11FG13 plays · 52 yds · 2:2794% → 95%
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
93.7%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 6 yds to the Wash 34 Wayne Taulapapa fumbled, forced by JoJo Evans, recovered by KntSt Jalen McmillanSimilar
Q2 2:51
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+14
93.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 14 yds to the Wash 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+19
94.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jack Westover for 19 yds to the KntSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:51
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+5
94.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 5 yds to the KntSt 28Similar
Q2 2:51
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+8
93.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 8 yds to the KntSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 12END OF HALF3 plays · 0 yds · 0:196% → 6%
WASHDrive 13TD14 plays · 74 yds · 5:4794% → 99%
Q3 14:53
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+10
94.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Cameron Davis for 10 yds to the Wash 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+6
94.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Devin Culp for 6 yds to the Wash 45Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+5
94.3%
Michael Penix Jr. run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 7
OPP 47
-10
94.6%
WASHINGTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Wash 45Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 15
OWN 45
+20
94.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 20 yds to the KntSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
94.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 12 yds to the KntSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:06
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+13
99.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 13 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 14INT19 plays · 62 yds · 6:331% → 1%
Q3 9:00
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+2
98.6%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Devontez Walker for 2 yds to the KntSt 25Similar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+9
98.6%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Dante Cephas for 9 yds to the Wash 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 5
OPP 40
-5
98.6%
PENALTY KSU False Start (Bailey,Jack) 5 yards from WASH40 to WASH45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 10
OPP 33
-5
98.5%
PENALTY KSU Delay Of Game 5 yards from WASH33 to WASH38. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1699% → 99%
Q3 1:11
4TH & 8
OWN 7
0
99.4%
Jack McCallister punt for 48 yds , Raymond James returns for no gain to the KntSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 16TD11 plays · 55 yds · 2:591% → 4%
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+22
99.2%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Dante Cephas for 22 yds to the Wash 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 27
+8
99.3%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Dante Cephas for 8 yds to the Wash 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+4
99.2%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Bryan Bradford for 4 yds to the Wash 15Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+13
99.2%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Kris Leach for 13 yds to the Wash 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 17TD4 plays · 55 yds · 1:2298% → 100%
KENTDrive 18DOWNS12 plays · 49 yds · 4:031% → 0%
Q4 11:50
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+12
99.4%
Devin Kargman pass complete to Raymond James for 12 yds to the Wash 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+15
99.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Kargman,Devin pass incomplete short left to Buntin,Naran PENALTY WASH Pass Interference (Irvin,Julius) 15 yards from WASH48 to WASH33, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:47
4TH & 6
OPP 29
+3
99.7%
Devin Kargman pass complete to Marcus Harris for 3 yds to the Wash 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 19PUNT7 plays · 22 yds · 2:22100% → 100%
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-3
99.7%
Dylan Morris sacked by Khalib Johns for a loss of 3 yards to the Wash 23Similar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 13
OWN 23
+23
99.7%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Taj Davis for 23 yds to the Wash 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-10
99.7%
WASHINGTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Wash 40Similar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 16
OWN 40
+8
99.7%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Quentin Moore for 8 yds to the Wash 48Similar
Q4 5:25
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
99.8%
Jack McCallister punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KntSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 20INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 21DOWNS8 plays · 35 yds · 3:49100% → 100%
KENTDrive 22END OF GAME3 plays · 11 yds · 1:290% → 0%
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:06
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 13 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK)
+4.5
TD · Q2 8:28
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 4 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK)
+3.5
TD · Q4 13:12
Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Glass KICK)
-2.8