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BGSU

Bowling Green 17 at UCLA 45

UCLA
2022 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2022 · Rose Bowl
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Win probability · UCLA
modelUCLA aheadBGSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUCLA scoreBGSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:14 · Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+43.0+21.50−21.5−43.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 44Pregame prior+35.9Home team on offense−0.4Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4Blowout margin−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:43: Matt McDonald pass complete to Christian Sims for 22 yds for a TD, (Mason Lawler KICK) — BGSU win probability +3.7 pts (now 18%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:04: Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kazmeir Allen for 20 yds for a TD, (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK) — UCLA win probability +5.1 pts (now 86%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:18: Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Keegan Jones for 52 yds for a TD, (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK) — UCLA win probability +7.8 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:03: Zach Charbonnet run for 4 yds for a TD, (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK) — UCLA win probability +4.8 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:54: Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 8 yds for a TD, (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK) — UCLA win probability +2.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCLA made the numbers' call on 5 of 9BGSU made the numbers' call on 13 of 14
  1. Q1 13:46UCLA 4th & 12 at UCLA 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:47BGSU 4th & 7 at BGSU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.7%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:10BGSU 4th & 1 at UCLA 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    8.4%−0.3
    23% to make
    Punt
    8.5%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:29BGSU 4th & 5 at UCLA 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    9.2%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:14UCLA 4th & 4 at BGSU 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    88.6%−0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    87.7%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:28UCLA 4th & 6 at BGSU 6, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 78.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.6%
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.6%−<0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    75.9%−2.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:02BGSU 4th & 15 at BGSU 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.1%−1.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:02UCLA 4th & 1 at BGSU 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    77.7%−2.3
    30% to make
    Punt
    78.1%−1.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:31BGSU 4th & 4 at BGSU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.9%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:52BGSU 4th & 12 at BGSU 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.2%−0.9
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.1%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:32UCLA 4th & 15 at BGSU 46, up 7
    Close callPunted · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.1%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    87.4%
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:32UCLA 4th & 15 at BGSU 46, up 7
    Close callPunted · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.1%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    87.4%
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:23BGSU 4th & 10 at BGSU 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%−1.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.4%
    average punt
  14. Q3 13:23BGSU 4th & 10 at BGSU 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%−1.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.4%
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:36UCLA 4th & 10 at BGSU 10, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%−0.6
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.0%
    88% to make
    Punt
    90.2%−3.7
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:39BGSU 4th & 22 at BGSU 8, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−1.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.3%
    average punt
  17. Q3 2:39BGSU 4th & 22 at BGSU 8, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−1.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 14:54BGSU 4th & 3 at UCLA 41, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    0.9%−0.5
    32% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−0.4
    average punt
  19. Q4 11:20BGSU 4th & 11 at UCLA 38, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    1.1%
    38% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−0.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 8:39UCLA 4th & 4 at BGSU 26, up 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.0%−<0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    98.3%−0.7
    average punt
  21. Q4 7:05BGSU 4th & 3 at BGSU 33, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  22. Q4 4:21UCLA 4th & 3 at midfield, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.2%−0.1
    average punt
  23. Q4 2:42BGSU 4th & 9 at BGSU 26, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCLA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6BGSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 13:46BGSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 12:20UCLA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:43BGSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:04UCLA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:18UCLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:03UCLA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:54UCLA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:21UCLA Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCLADrive 1PUNT TD
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:1493% → 92%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
92.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kazmeir Allen for 3 yds to the UCLA 28 UCLA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UCLA 18Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 17
OWN 18
+3
92.6%
Zach Charbonnet run for 3 yds to the UCLA 21Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+2
92.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Michael Ezeike for 2 yds to the UCLA 23Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
92.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:46
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+11
92.1%
Charles Rosser 11 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Mason Lawler Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 2TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 1:2692% → 92%
Q1 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
92.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson sacked by Davon Ferguson for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 23Similar
Q1 13:46
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+9
92.2%
Zach Charbonnet run for 9 yds to the UCLA 32Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+68
91.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 68 yds for a TD, (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:338% → 8%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
91.9%
Odieu Hiliare run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 24Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
91.9%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+4
92.0%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Levi Gazarek for 4 yds to the BwGrn 28Similar
Q1 10:47
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
91.6%
Sami Sir punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jake Bobo at the UCLA 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 4INT
10 plays · 20 yds · 10:5692% → 88%
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
91.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Zach Charbonnet for 5 yds to the BwGrn 47Similar
Q1 10:56
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+2
91.7%
Zach Charbonnet run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 45Similar
Q1 10:56
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+5
91.7%
Zach Charbonnet run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
91.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kazmeir Allen for 9 yds to the BwGrn 31Similar
Q1 10:56
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+4
91.7%
Keegan Jones run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
91.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:56
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-5
91.7%
THOMPSON-ROBINSON, Dorian pass to the left incomplete intended for HABERMEHL, Hudson broken up by TAYLOR, DJ at the BGU20. PENALTY UCL Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass enforced 5 yards from the BGU27 to the BGU32 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 15
OPP 32
0
90.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass interceptedSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
88.0%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (TEAM) to the UCLA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
90.5%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 9 yds to the UCLA 46Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 1
OPP 46
0
90.4%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 1
OPP 46
0
90.4%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:10
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+7
90.5%
Jamal Johnson run for 7 yds to the UCLA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
90.4%
Ta'ron Keith run for no gain to the UCLA 39Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
90.4%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 10
OPP 39
-2
90.5%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Ta'ron Keith for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 6FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1311% → 11%
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
89.3%
Odieu Hiliare run for 5 yds to the UCLA 6Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 5
OPP 6
0
89.3%
Jamal Johnson run for no gain to the UCLA 6Similar
Q1 5:42
3RD & 5
OPP 6
0
89.4%
CJ Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:29
4TH & 5
OPP 6
+24
88.9%
Mason Lawler 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 7DOWNS
11 plays · 48 yds · 3:1589% → 88%
Q1 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
88.8%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Michael Ezeike for 5 yds to the UCLA 30Similar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
88.9%
Zach Charbonnet run for 4 yds to the UCLA 34Similar
Q1 4:29
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
88.9%
Zach Charbonnet run for 2 yds to the UCLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
88.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Michael Ezeike for 12 yds to the UCLA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
89.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Michael Ezeike for 8 yds to the BwGrn 44Similar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+11
89.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Zach Charbonnet for 11 yds to the BwGrn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
89.5%
Keegan Jones run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 31Similar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+6
89.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Josiah Norwood for 6 yds to the BwGrn 25Similar
Q1 1:18
3RD & 2
OPP 25
-2
88.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Josiah Norwood for a loss of 2 yards to the BwGrn 27Similar
Q1 1:14
4TH & 4
OPP 27
0
87.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 8TD
9 plays · 73 yds · 2:3113% → 18%
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+16
87.5%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 16 yds to the BwGrn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
87.1%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Nick Mosley for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 3
50
+12
86.9%
Nick Mosley run for 12 yds to the UCLA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
86.1%
Nick Mosley run for 3 yds to the UCLA 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+6
85.7%
Jamal Johnson run for 6 yds to the UCLA 29Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+2
86.0%
Jamal Johnson run for 2 yds to the UCLA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
85.7%
UCLA Penalty, Offsides (Dovid Magna) to the UCLA 22Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 22
0
85.7%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:43
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+22
82.0%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Christian Sims for 22 yds for a TD, (Mason Lawler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 9FG
13 plays · 59 yds · 5:1583% → 81%
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
82.5%
Zach Charbonnet run for 14 yds to the UCLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-10
83.1%
THOMPSON-ROBINSON, Dorian scrambles for a gain of 6 yards to the BGU45 (HORNE, Brock). PENALTY UCL Holding on DIGIORGIO, Garrett enforced 10 yards from the UCL49 to the UCL39 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:43
1ST & 20
OWN 39
+5
82.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Michael Ezeike for 5 yds to the UCLA 44Similar
Q2 13:43
2ND & 15
OWN 44
+5
82.5%
Zach Charbonnet run for 5 yds to the UCLA 49Similar
Q2 13:43
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+20
82.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Jake Bobo for 20 yds to the BwGrn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
83.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Carsen Ryan for 6 yds to the BwGrn 25Similar
Q2 13:43
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+16
83.6%
Zach Charbonnet run for 16 yds to the BwGrn 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
83.6%
Zach Charbonnet run for no gain to the BwGrn 9Similar
Q2 9:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
80.8%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala for 6 yds to the BwGrn 3Similar
Q2 9:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
80.1%
Zach Charbonnet run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 1Similar
Q2 9:22
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
79.6%
UCLA Penalty, Delay Of Game (Dorian Thompson-Robinson) to the BwGrn 6Similar
Q2 8:28
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
81.1%
Nicholas Barr-Mira 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:2621% → 22%
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
79.5%
Jamal Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 24Similar
Q2 8:28
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
79.8%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:28
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-4
80.2%
Matt McDonald sacked by Grayson Murphy for a loss of 4 yards to the BwGrn 20Similar
Q2 7:02
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+1
78.2%
Sami Sir punt for 42 yds , Jake Bobo returns for 1 yd to the UCLA 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 11TD
8 plays · 61 yds · 2:5879% → 86%
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
78.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Carsen Ryan for 10 yds to the UCLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
79.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+7
79.5%
Zach Charbonnet run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 44Similar
Q2 7:02
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+2
80.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Zach Charbonnet for 2 yds to the BwGrn 42Similar
Q2 7:02
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+9
79.4%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kazmeir Allen for 9 yds to the BwGrn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
80.9%
Zach Charbonnet run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+10
80.9%
Zach Charbonnet run for 10 yds to the BwGrn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
86.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kazmeir Allen for 20 yds for a TD, (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3318% → 18%
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
82.1%
MCDONALD, Matt pass up the middle complete for 23 yards to GAZAREK, Levi caught at the BGU32 and advanced to the BGU48 (BLAYLOCK, Stephan). PENALTY BGU Holding on WARNER, Bronson enforced 10 yards from the BGU25 to the BGU15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:04
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+5
82.4%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 5 yds to the BwGrn 20Similar
Q2 4:04
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+11
82.4%
Jamal Johnson run for 11 yds to the BwGrn 31Similar
Q2 4:04
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
82.0%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:31
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+13
81.8%
Sami Sir punt for 34 yds , Jake Bobo returns for 13 yds to the UCLA 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 13TD
1 play · 52 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
89.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Keegan Jones for 52 yds for a TD, (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:2611% → 11%
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.9%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
89.0%
Jamal Johnson run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 28Similar
Q2 2:02
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-5
89.1%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BwGrn 23Similar
Q2 2:02
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
89.2%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:52
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
89.4%
Sami Sir punt for 44 yds, downed at the UCLA 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 15PUNT
11 plays · 21 yds · 1:2088% → 88%
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
87.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 7 yds to the UCLA 40Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+1
88.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kazmeir Allen for 1 yd to the UCLA 41Similar
Q2 1:52
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+8
88.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kazmeir Allen for 8 yds to the UCLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
88.4%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Jake Bobo for 10 yds to the BwGrn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
88.5%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (Jon Gaines II) to the BwGrn 46Similar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 15
OPP 46
0
88.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 15
OPP 46
0
89.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 15
OPP 46
0
88.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:32
4TH & 15
OPP 46
0
88.0%
Nicholas Barr-Mira punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Jhaylin Embry at the BwGrn 18Similar
Q2 0:32
4TH & 15
OPP 46
0
88.0%
Nicholas Barr-Mira punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Jhaylin Embry at the BwGrn 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:3713% → 12%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
87.1%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Jamal Johnson for 6 yds to the BwGrn 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
86.5%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-1
87.1%
Jamal Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
-5
87.9%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Delay Of Game (Sami Sir) to the BwGrn 25Similar
Q3 13:23
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
87.7%
Sami Sir punt for 33 yds, downed at the UCLA 42Similar
Q3 13:23
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
87.7%
Sami Sir punt for 33 yds, downed at the UCLA 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 18TD
8 plays · 58 yds · 2:2088% → 93%
Q3 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
88.3%
Zach Charbonnet run for 2 yds to the UCLA 44Similar
Q3 13:23
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+6
88.3%
Zach Charbonnet run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:23
3RD & 2
50
+10
88.0%
Zach Charbonnet run for 10 yds to the BwGrn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
88.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Hudson Habermehl for 8 yds to the BwGrn 32Similar
Q3 13:23
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+17
88.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Hudson Habermehl for 17 yds to the BwGrn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
88.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Zach Charbonnet for 7 yds to the BwGrn 8Similar
Q3 13:23
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+4
88.6%
Zach Charbonnet run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
93.4%
Zach Charbonnet run for 4 yds for a TD, (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 19FUMBLE
10 plays · 17 yds · 4:098% → 9%
Q3 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
92.4%
Matt McDonald pass complete to CJ Lewis for 4 yds to the BwGrn 29Similar
Q3 11:03
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-1
92.0%
Jaison Patterson run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 28Similar
Q3 11:03
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+5
92.5%
MCDONALD, Matt pass to the right complete for 4 yards to KEITH, Ta'ron caught at the BGU28 and advanced to the BGU32 (BRYANT-STROTHER, Choe;JONES JR., Carl). PENALTY UCL Offsides on MURPHY, Grayson enforced 5 yards from the BGU28 to the BGU33 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:03
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
92.0%
Matt McDonald pass complete to CJ Lewis for 2 yds to the BwGrn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
92.0%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Christian Sims for 8 yds to the BwGrn 43Similar
Q3 11:03
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+11
91.6%
Jamal Johnson run for 11 yds to the UCLA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
91.4%
Jamal Johnson run for 7 yds to the UCLA 39Similar
Q3 11:03
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+1
91.1%
Nick Mosley run for 1 yd to the UCLA 38Similar
Q3 6:54
3RD & 2
OPP 38
0
91.1%
run for a loss of 20 yards fumbled, recovered by UCLA Darius Muasau , return for no gainSimilar
Q3 6:54
3RD & 2
OPP 38
0
91.1%
run for a loss of 20 yards fumbled, recovered by UCLA Darius Muasau , return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 20MISSED FG
10 plays · 26 yds · 3:1894% → 93%
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
94.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Keegan Jones for 4 yds to the BwGrn 32Similar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 6
OPP 32
0
94.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:54
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+1
94.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 24 Dorian Thompson-Robinson fumbled, recovered by UCLA Atonio Mafi for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
94.3%
Zach Charbonnet run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 20Similar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+16
94.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kazmeir Allen for 16 yds to the BwGrn 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
94.3%
Keegan Jones run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 3Similar
Q3 6:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
94.3%
Zach Charbonnet run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 4Similar
Q3 6:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-6
94.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson sacked by Walter Haire and Cashius Howell for a loss of 6 yards to the BwGrn 10Similar
Q3 3:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
94.0%
Nicholas Barr-Mira 28 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
Q3 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
93.1%
MCDONALD, Matt pass to the left incomplete intended for SIMS, Christian broken up by BLAYLOCK, Stephan at the BGU15. PENALTY BGU Tripping on WOLLSCHLAEGER, Alex enforced half the distance from the goal, 10 yards from the BGU20 to the BGU10 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 0:577% → 6%
Q3 3:36
1ST & 20
OWN 10
0
93.2%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:36
2ND & 20
OWN 10
0
93.3%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:36
3RD & 20
OWN 10
-2
93.4%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Christian Sims for a loss of 2 yards to the BwGrn 8Similar
Q3 2:39
4TH & 22
OWN 8
0
93.9%
Sami Sir punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jake Bobo at the BwGrn 47Similar
Q3 2:39
4TH & 22
OWN 8
0
93.9%
Sami Sir punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jake Bobo at the BwGrn 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 22TD
9 plays · 47 yds · 2:4596% → 99%
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
95.5%
Keegan Jones run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 43Similar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+7
95.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kazmeir Allen for 7 yds to the BwGrn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-3
95.5%
Keegan Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the BwGrn 39Similar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 13
OPP 39
+7
95.4%
Keegan Jones run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 32Similar
Q3 2:39
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+8
95.4%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Jake Bobo for 8 yds to the BwGrn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
95.6%
Keegan Jones run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 19Similar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 5
OPP 19
0
95.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+11
95.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Zach Charbonnet for 11 yds to the BwGrn 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
98.8%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 8 yds for a TD, (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 23DOWNS
11 plays · 37 yds · 3:341% → 1%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.7%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+27
98.8%
Matt McDonald pass complete to CJ Lewis for 27 yds to the UCLA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
98.7%
Jaison Patterson run for 2 yds to the UCLA 46Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 8
OPP 46
0
98.7%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+5
98.7%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Christian Sims for 5 yds to the UCLA 41Similar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 3
OPP 41
+4
98.7%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 4 yds to the UCLA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
98.7%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:02
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-7
99.0%
Matt McDonald sacked by Stephan Blaylock for a loss of 7 yards to the UCLA 44Similar
Q4 12:02
3RD & 17
OPP 44
+6
99.1%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Andrew Bench for 6 yds to the UCLA 38Similar
Q4 11:20
4TH & 11
OPP 38
0
99.0%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Defensive Holding (Cade Zimmerly) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 24MISSED FG
8 plays · 36 yds · 2:4199% → 99%
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
99.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kazmeir Allen for 3 yds to the UCLA 41Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+16
99.1%
Keegan Jones run for 16 yds to the BwGrn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
99.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 11 yds to the BwGrn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
99.2%
TJ Harden run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 8
OPP 30
-5
99.2%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (Kazmeir Allen) to the BwGrn 35Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 13
OPP 35
+9
99.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kazmeir Allen for 9 yds to the BwGrn 26Similar
Q4 11:20
3RD & 4
OPP 26
0
99.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:39
4TH & 4
OPP 26
+44
99.2%
Nicholas Barr-Mira 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:341% → 1%
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
99.1%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:39
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+3
99.2%
Jaison Patterson run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 29Similar
Q4 8:39
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+4
99.2%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Griffin Little for 4 yds to the BwGrn 33Similar
Q4 7:05
4TH & 3
OWN 33
0
99.2%
Sami Sir punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jake Bobo at the UCLA 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 26TD
7 plays · 68 yds · 2:4499% → 100%
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
99.3%
Keegan Jones run for 2 yds to the UCLA 34Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+5
99.3%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Josiah Norwood for 5 yds to the UCLA 39Similar
Q4 7:05
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+4
99.3%
Keegan Jones run for 4 yds to the UCLA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
99.3%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+3
99.3%
TJ Harden run for 3 yds to the UCLA 46Similar
Q4 7:05
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+4
99.3%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Josiah Norwood for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:21
4TH & 3
50
+50
99.9%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Josiah Norwood for 50 yds for a TD, (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:390% → 0%
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
100.0%
Jaison Patterson run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 28Similar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-2
100.0%
PaSean Wimberly run for a loss of 2 yards to the BwGrn 26Similar
Q4 4:21
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
100.0%
Camden Orth pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:42
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
100.0%
Sami Sir punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jake Bobo at the UCLA 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 28END OF GAME
4 plays · 17 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
100.0%
TJ Harden run for 6 yds to the UCLA 45Similar
Q4 2:42
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+5
100.0%
TJ Harden run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
50
+6
100.0%
TJ Harden run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 44Similar
Q4 2:42
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+2
100.0%
TJ Harden run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:18
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Keegan Jones for 52 yds for a TD, (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)
+7.8
TD · Q2 4:04
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kazmeir Allen for 20 yds for a TD, (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)
+5.1
TD · Q3 11:03
Zach Charbonnet run for 4 yds for a TD, (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)
+4.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com