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TCU

TCU 38 at Colorado 13

COLO
2022 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2022 · Folsom Field
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Win probability · COLO
modelCOLO aheadTCU aheadconfidence bandkey playCOLO scoreTCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:38 · Chandler Morris pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 14 yds to the Colo 35 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+56.5+28.30−28.3−56.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 64Pregame prior−20.3Home team on offense−4.0Score differential−2.1Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:36: Derius Davis 60 Yd Punt Return (Griffin Kell Kick) — TCU win probability +3.3 pts (now 77%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 7:38: Cole Becker 43 Yd Field Goal — COLO win probability +2.3 pts (now 30%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. TD · Q3 11:56: Emari Demercado 43 Yd Run (Griffin Kell Kick) — TCU win probability +10.1 pts (now 81%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:55: Kendre Miller 3 Yd Run (Griffin Kell Kick) — TCU win probability +8.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:55: Derius Davis 27 Yd Run (Griffin Kell Kick) — TCU win probability +2.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
COLO made the numbers' call on 6 of 9TCU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 10:06COLO 4th & 1 at TCU 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    22.6%−0.2
    83% to make
    Punt
    22.1%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:21TCU 4th & 10 at TCU 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.6%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:44COLO 4th & 12 at TCU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%−0.3
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.2%
    77% to make
    Punt
    23.9%−1.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:52TCU 4th & 8 at COLO 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.4%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:36COLO 4th & 10 at COLO 21, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%−0.9
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:38COLO 4th & 7 at TCU 25, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.6%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.7%
    66% to make
    Punt
    24.7%−4.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:38TCU 4th & 2 at COLO 49, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    69.1%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:23TCU 4th & 15 at COLO 40, up 1
    Close callPunted · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    67.2%
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.9%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00COLO 4th & 16 at COLO 49, down 1
    Numbers favored punt by 2.4 ptsWent for it · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.0%−2.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    32.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:20COLO 4th & 9 at COLO 26, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%−1.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:45TCU 4th & 5 at COLO 15, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.9%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.4%
    83% to make
    Punt
    74.0%−6.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:18COLO 4th & 5 at TCU 41, down 11
    Close callPunted · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    16.2%−1.2
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    16.6%−0.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:12TCU 4th & 3 at COLO 23, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    86.6%−0.7
    70% to make
    Punt
    81.1%−6.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:45COLO 4th & 17 at COLO 32, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.9%−0.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:00COLO 4th & 7 at COLO 44, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
COLO made the numbers' call on 0 of 1TCU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q2 14:36TCU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 11:56TCU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 10:55TCU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 7:55TCU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 3:15TCU Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:13COLO Touchdown, down 26 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
COLODrive 1DOWNS
11 plays · 45 yds · 4:4919% → 21%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
18.5%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Maurice Bell for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 39Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+1
18.9%
Alex Fontenot run for 1 yd to the Colo 40Similar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+25
19.1%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Daniel Arias for 25 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
19.5%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Brady Russell for 5 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+6
19.8%
Brendon Lewis run for 6 yds to the TCU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
20.1%
Deion Smith run for 5 yds to the TCU 19Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+3
20.6%
Brendon Lewis run for 3 yds to the TCU 16Similar
Q1 10:43
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+1
20.9%
Deion Smith run for 1 yd to the TCU 15Similar
Q1 10:06
4TH & 1
OPP 15
0
21.0%
Brendon Lewis run for no gain to the TCU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:3979% → 79%
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
20.9%
Kendre Miller run for no gain to the TCU 15Similar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
21.2%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to Taye BarberSimilar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 10
OWN 15
0
21.3%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to Taye BarberSimilar
Q1 9:21
4TH & 10
OWN 15
0
21.5%
Jordy Sandy punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Chase Penry at the Colo 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 3FG
11 plays · 43 yds · 4:2922% → 24%
Q1 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
21.5%
Alex Fontenot run for 4 yds to the Colo 42Similar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+5
21.9%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Montana Lemonious-Craig for 5 yds to the Colo 47Similar
Q1 8:21
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+2
22.0%
Alex Fontenot run for 2 yds to the Colo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
22.7%
TCU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the TCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
22.8%
Alex Fontenot run for 8 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 2
OPP 28
+11
23.2%
Deion Smith run for 11 yds to the TCU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
23.5%
Jayle Stacks run for 5 yds to the TCU 12Similar
Q1 5:52
2ND & 5
OPP 12
0
23.9%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Caleb FauriaSimilar
Q1 5:52
3RD & 5
OPP 12
-5
23.7%
COLORADO Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the TCU 17Similar
Q1 5:45
3RD & 10
OPP 17
-2
23.7%
Brendon Lewis run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 19Similar
Q1 4:44
4TH & 12
OPP 19
+37
24.2%
Cole Becker 37 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 1:3675% → 74%
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
24.8%
Kendre Miller run for 7 yds to the TCU 32Similar
Q1 4:09
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+18
24.5%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Derius Davis for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
50
+2
24.5%
Trent Battle run for 2 yds to the Colo 48Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 8
OPP 48
0
24.8%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to Kendre MillerSimilar
Q1 2:59
3RD & 8
OPP 48
0
25.0%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to Quentin JohnstonSimilar
Q1 2:52
4TH & 8
OPP 48
0
25.7%
Jordy Sandy punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Chase Penry at the Colo 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 5PUNT TD
8 plays · 11 yds · 3:0526% → 23%
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
25.6%
Deion Smith run for no gain to the Colo 10Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+4
25.8%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jack Hestera for 4 yds to the Colo 14Similar
Q1 1:12
3RD & 6
OWN 14
+7
25.8%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to R.J. Sneed II for 7 yds to the Colo 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
26.6%
Deion Smith run for 5 yds to the Colo 26Similar
Q1 0:17
2ND & 5
OWN 26
-5
27.2%
COLORADO Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Colo 21Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
27.1%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 10
OWN 21
0
26.6%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Alex FontenotSimilar
Q2 14:36
4TH & 10
OWN 21
+60
23.4%
Derius Davis 60 Yd Punt Return (Griffin Kell Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 6FG
15 plays · 50 yds · 6:4724% → 30%
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
24.3%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Maurice Bell for 4 yds to the Colo 29Similar
Q2 13:51
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
24.7%
Alex Fontenot run for 4 yds to the Colo 33Similar
Q2 13:18
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
25.1%
Jayle Stacks run for 3 yds to the Colo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
25.4%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Brady Russell for no gain to the Colo 36Similar
Q2 12:02
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+24
25.6%
Brendon Lewis run for 24 yds to the TCU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
27.5%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+9
27.5%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Chase Sowell for 9 yds to the TCU 31Similar
Q2 10:55
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+3
27.6%
Alex Fontenot run for 3 yds to the TCU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
28.7%
COLORADO Penalty, False Start (Tommy Brown) to the TCU 33Similar
Q2 9:57
1ST & 15
OPP 33
+5
28.3%
Alex Fontenot run for 5 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q2 9:18
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+4
29.0%
Alex Fontenot run for 4 yds to the TCU 24Similar
Q2 8:41
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+4
28.5%
Brendon Lewis run for 4 yds to the TCU 20Similar
Q2 8:00
4TH & 2
OPP 20
-5
27.2%
COLORADO Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the TCU 25Similar
Q2 7:38
4TH & 7
OPP 25
+43
29.5%
Cole Becker 43 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 7PUNT
14 plays · 35 yds · 5:0773% → 69%
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
27.2%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 3 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q2 6:48
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
27.2%
Chandler Morris run for 6 yds to the TCU 34Similar
Q2 6:21
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+9
27.1%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Taye Barber for 9 yds to the TCU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
26.6%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jared Wiley for no gain to the TCU 43Similar
Q2 4:57
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+9
27.2%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Blake Nowell for 9 yds to the Colo 48Similar
Q2 4:20
3RD & 1
OPP 48
-1
26.7%
Emari Demercado run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 49Similar
Q2 3:38
4TH & 2
OPP 49
+14
28.2%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 14 yds to the Colo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
26.1%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
26.3%
Chandler Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:57
3RD & 10
OPP 35
0
27.6%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Savion Williams for no gain to the Colo 35Similar
Q2 2:33
4TH & 10
OPP 35
-5
30.1%
TCU Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Colo 40Similar
Q2 2:23
4TH & 15
OPP 40
0
30.8%
Jordy Sandy punt for 39 yds, downed at the Colo 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 8DOWNS
11 plays · 48 yds · 2:0731% → 29%
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
31.1%
J.T. Shrout run for 4 yds to the Colo 5Similar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 6
OWN 5
+35
31.1%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Daniel Arias for 35 yds to the Colo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
34.2%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Daniel Arias for 4 yds to the Colo 44Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+11
34.8%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Chase Penry for 11 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
35.8%
J.T. Shrout pass incomplete to Chase PenrySimilar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-10
35.6%
COLORADO Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jake Wiley) to the Colo 45Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 20
OWN 45
+4
32.6%
J.T. Shrout run for 4 yds to the Colo 49Similar
Q2 0:08
3RD & 16
OWN 49
0
29.3%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 16
OWN 49
0
28.9%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 9TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:5569% → 81%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
31.2%
Kendre Miller run for 22 yds to the TCU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
29.4%
Kendre Miller run for 8 yds to the Colo 45Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 2
OPP 45
-5
28.8%
TCU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:52
2ND & 7
50
-5
29.3%
TCU Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the TCU 45Similar
Q3 13:24
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+2
30.9%
Kendre Miller run for 2 yds to the TCU 47Similar
Q3 12:41
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+20
31.6%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Geor'Quarius Spivey for 20 yds to the Colo 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-10
29.2%
TCU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Brandon Coleman) to the Colo 43Similar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 20
OPP 43
+43
19.1%
Emari Demercado 43 Yd Run (Griffin Kell Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:3122% → 20%
Q3 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
21.6%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jack Hestera for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 24Similar
Q3 11:12
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
21.6%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:59
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+2
20.6%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Daniel Arias for 2 yds to the Colo 26Similar
Q3 10:20
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+7
20.3%
Ashton Logan punt for 51 yds , Derius Davis returns for 7 yds to the TCU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 11FG
14 plays · 55 yds · 6:2180% → 83%
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
20.4%
Kendre Miller run for 2 yds to the TCU 32Similar
Q3 9:31
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+1
19.8%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Kendre Miller for 1 yd to the TCU 33Similar
Q3 8:47
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+11
20.3%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Savion Williams for 11 yds to the TCU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
18.7%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to Quentin JohnstonSimilar
Q3 8:01
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+13
18.9%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jared Wiley for 13 yds to the Colo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
18.5%
Chandler Morris run for no gain to the Colo 43Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+8
18.5%
Kendre Miller run for 8 yds to the Colo 35Similar
Q3 6:37
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+15
18.8%
Chandler Morris run for 15 yds to the Colo 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
18.0%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 5 yds to the Colo 15Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 5
OPP 15
-3
18.5%
Chandler Morris run for a loss of 3 yards to the Colo 18Similar
Q3 4:49
3RD & 8
OPP 18
-5
18.8%
TCU Penalty, False Start (Steve Avila) to the Colo 23Similar
Q3 3:57
3RD & 13
OPP 23
+8
18.0%
Chandler Morris pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 8 yds to the Colo 15Similar
Q3 3:45
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+33
17.4%
Griffin Kell 33 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 3:2018% → 18%
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
17.9%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Deion Smith for 9 yds to the Colo 34Similar
Q3 3:17
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+8
19.0%
Deion Smith run for 8 yds to the Colo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
19.2%
Brendon Lewis run for 12 yds to the TCU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
20.5%
Deion Smith run for no gain to the TCU 46Similar
Q3 1:41
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-5
19.8%
Brendon Lewis sacked by Damonic Williams for a loss of 5 yards to the Colo 49Similar
Q3 0:51
3RD & 15
OWN 49
+10
17.1%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to R.J. Sneed II for 10 yds to the TCU 41Similar
Q3 0:18
4TH & 5
OPP 41
0
17.7%
Ashton Logan punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 13TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 4:0585% → 97%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-4
15.2%
Emari Demercado run for a loss of 4 yards to the TCU 16Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 14
OWN 16
+33
15.5%
Max Duggan run for 33 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
14.4%
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 7 yds to the Colo 44Similar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+3
13.5%
Max Duggan run for 3 yds to the Colo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
12.7%
Emari Demercado run for 11 yds to the Colo 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
12.5%
Trent Battle run for 2 yds to the Colo 28Similar
Q4 12:19
2ND & 8
OPP 28
0
12.1%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:11
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+5
12.7%
Max Duggan run for 5 yds to the Colo 23Similar
Q4 11:12
4TH & 3
OPP 23
+20
11.5%
Max Duggan pass complete to Savion Williams for 20 yds to the Colo 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
2.7%
Kendre Miller 3 Yd Run (Griffin Kell Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 14DOWNS
7 plays · 7 yds · 2:014% → 4%
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
4.1%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
3.9%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Brady Russell for 14 yds to the Colo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-12
4.3%
J.T. Shrout sacked by Dee Winters for a loss of 12 yards to the Colo 27Similar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 22
OWN 27
0
3.9%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 22
OWN 27
+5
3.7%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Caleb Fauria for 5 yds to the Colo 32Similar
Q4 8:45
4TH & 17
OWN 32
0
3.7%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 15TD
2 plays · 32 yds · 0:3598% → 100%
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
2.4%
Emani Bailey run for 5 yds to the Colo 27Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+27
0.3%
Derius Davis 27 Yd Run (Griffin Kell Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 1:280% → 0%
Q4 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
0.3%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Deion Smith for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 23Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+18
0.3%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Montana Lemonious-Craig for 18 yds to the Colo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
0.3%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 3 yds to the Colo 44Similar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
0.3%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:11
3RD & 7
OWN 44
0
0.3%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:00
4TH & 7
OWN 44
+5
0.3%
Ashton Logan punt for 42 yds , Derius Davis returns for 5 yds to the TCU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 17TD
5 plays · 81 yds · 2:08100% → 100%
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+32
0.2%
Sam Jackson run for 32 yds to the Colo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+35
0.2%
Emani Bailey run for 35 yds to the Colo 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
0.2%
Emani Bailey run for 2 yds to the Colo 12Similar
Q4 3:48
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+5
0.2%
Sam Jackson run for 5 yds to the Colo 7Similar
Q4 3:15
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+7
0.1%
Sam Jackson 7 Yd Run (Griffin Kell Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 18TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:410% → 0%
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
0.1%
Charlie Offerdahl run for 6 yds to the Colo 31Similar
Q4 2:21
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
0.1%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Jaylon Jackson for 5 yds to the Colo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
0.1%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
0.1%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+14
0.1%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Chase Sowell for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
50
+13
0.1%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Jaylon Jackson for 13 yds to the TCU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+14
0.1%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Jack Hestera for 14 yds to the TCU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
0.2%
Jordyn Tyson 23 Yd pass from J.T. Shrout (Cole Becker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 19END OF GAME
3 plays · -2 yds · 1:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 24Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:56
Emari Demercado 43 Yd Run (Griffin Kell Kick)
-10.1
TD · Q4 10:55
Kendre Miller 3 Yd Run (Griffin Kell Kick)
-8.9
TD · Q2 14:36
Derius Davis 60 Yd Punt Return (Griffin Kell Kick)
-3.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com