Try the model
TENN

Tennessee 56 at Vanderbilt 0

VAN
2022 · Week 13 · Nov 26, 2022 · FirstBank Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · VAN
modelVAN aheadTENN aheadconfidence bandkey playVAN scoreTENN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:31 · Matt Hayball punt for 43 yds , Squirrel White returns for 20 yds to the Tenn 49
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+59.0+29.50−29.5−59.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 67Home team on offense−17.4Pregame prior−23.9Score differential−8.6Garbage-time factor−3.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 14:05: Jabari Small run for 3 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — TENN win probability +0.1 pts (now 84%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 1:57: Princeton Fant run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — TENN win probability +2.4 pts (now 84%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:26: Jabari Small run for 52 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — TENN win probability +3.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:43: Jaylen Wright run for 50 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — TENN win probability +0.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:41: Dylan Sampson run for 80 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — VAN win probability +0.3 pts (now 0%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VAN made the numbers' call on 10 of 13TENN made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 8:46VAN 4th & 22 at VAN 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.4%−0.3
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:40TENN 4th & 9 at TENN 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.9%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:55VAN 4th & 8 at VAN 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:42TENN 4th & 4 at VAN 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    78.4%−0.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    78.0%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:57TENN 4th & 1 at VAN 1, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    77.4%−0.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    75.2%−3.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:48VAN 4th & 8 at TENN 21, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.5%
    74% to make
    Punt
    15.7%−2.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:17TENN 4th & 5 at TENN 40, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.5%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:09VAN 4th & 10 at VAN 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:31VAN 4th & 8 at VAN 28, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.4%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:22TENN 4th & 1 at VAN 27, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    89.4%−0.7
    62% to make
    Punt
    87.9%−2.2
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:11VAN 4th & 17 at TENN 39, down 21
    Close callPunted · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%−0.3
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    10.8%
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    10.6%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:55VAN 4th & 2 at TENN 49, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.6%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.0%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:57VAN 4th & 6 at VAN 29, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.3%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.4%
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:08VAN 4th & 18 at VAN 28, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:51VAN 4th & 6 at TENN 35, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:55TENN 4th & 6 at TENN 39, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:28VAN 4th & 4 at TENN 17, down 42
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    80% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:54VAN 4th & 4 at VAN 47, down 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:35VAN 4th & 22 at VAN 15, down 56
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:29TENN 4th & 13 at VAN 47, up 56
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TENN made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 14:05TENN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:57TENN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:26TENN Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:43TENN Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:53TENN Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:16TENN Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:41TENN Touchdown, up 55 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TENNDrive 1TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:5084% → 84%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
16.2%
Jabari Small run for 2 yds to the Tenn 27Similar
Q1 14:40
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
16.4%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Squirrel White for 9 yds to the Tenn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+61
16.5%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Jalin Hyatt for 61 yds to the Vandy 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
16.4%
Jabari Small run for 3 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 2PUNT
12 plays · 27 yds · 5:0917% → 18%
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
16.5%
Ray Davis run for 7 yds to the Vandy 28Similar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+2
16.7%
Ray Davis run for 2 yds to the Vandy 30Similar
Q1 13:05
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+3
16.8%
Ray Davis run for 3 yds to the Vandy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
16.9%
Mike Wright pass complete to Ray Davis for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 32Similar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+5
17.0%
TENNESSEE Penalty, Defensive Offside (Kurott Garland) to the Vandy 37Similar
Q1 11:38
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+13
17.2%
Ray Davis run for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
50
+10
17.6%
Patrick Smith run for 10 yds to the Tenn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-12
17.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 12 yards to the Vandy 48 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Vandy Mike WrightSimilar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 22
OWN 48
0
17.8%
Patrick Smith run for no gain to the Vandy 48Similar
Q1 8:57
3RD & 22
OWN 48
0
17.7%
Mike Wright pass incomplete to Will SheppardSimilar
Q1 8:46
4TH & 22
OWN 48
+4
17.7%
Matt Hayball punt for 44 yds , Dee Williams returns for 4 yds to the Tenn 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:5982% → 82%
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
17.7%
Jabari Small run for 2 yds to the Tenn 14Similar
Q1 8:22
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+18
17.9%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Jalin Hyatt for 18 yds to the Tenn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
17.7%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Jalin HyattSimilar
Q1 8:05
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+1
17.8%
Jabari Small run for 1 yd to the Tenn 33Similar
Q1 7:48
3RD & 9
OWN 33
0
18.0%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Squirrel WhiteSimilar
Q1 7:40
4TH & 9
OWN 33
0
18.1%
Paxton Brooks punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Will Sheppard at the Vandy 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:4018% → 18%
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
18.2%
Ray Davis run for 2 yds to the Vandy 33Similar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+5
18.3%
TENNESSEE Penalty, Defensive Offside (Da'Jon Terry) to the Vandy 38Similar
Q1 6:41
2ND & 3
OWN 38
-5
18.8%
Jayden McGowan run for a loss of 5 yards to the Vandy 33Similar
Q1 6:03
3RD & 8
OWN 33
0
18.4%
Mike Wright pass incomplete to Ben BresnahanSimilar
Q1 5:55
4TH & 8
OWN 33
0
18.3%
Matt Hayball punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Dee Williams at the Tenn 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 5TD
11 plays · 76 yds · 3:5282% → 84%
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
18.4%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Squirrel White for 5 yds to the Tenn 29Similar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+15
18.3%
Jaylen Wright run for 15 yds to the Tenn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+20
18.1%
Jaylen Wright run for 5 yds to the Vandy 49 for a 1ST down VANDERBILT Penalty, Illegal Block (CJ Taylor) to the Vandy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
18.1%
Dylan Sampson run for 1 yd to the Vandy 35Similar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 9
OPP 35
0
18.1%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Squirrel WhiteSimilar
Q1 4:28
3RD & 9
OPP 35
+5
18.2%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Squirrel White for 5 yds to the Vandy 30Similar
Q1 3:42
4TH & 4
OPP 30
+23
18.8%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Ramel Keyton for 23 yds to the Vandy 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
18.2%
Dylan Sampson run for 3 yds to the Vandy 4Similar
Q1 3:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
18.3%
Dylan Sampson run for 3 yds to the Vandy 1Similar
Q1 2:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
18.5%
Princeton Fant run for no gain to the Vandy 1Similar
Q1 1:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
16.1%
Princeton Fant run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 6MISSED FG
13 plays · 43 yds · 5:5417% → 16%
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
16.8%
Mike Wright pass complete to Gavin Schoenwald for 8 yds to the Vandy 44Similar
Q1 0:53
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+6
17.2%
Mike Wright pass complete to Ray Davis for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:16
1ST & 10
50
0
17.3%
Ray Davis run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 10
50
+5
17.4%
Mike Wright run for 5 yds to the Tenn 45Similar
Q2 14:12
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+5
17.0%
Wright, Mike pass incomplete to Davis, Ray, PENALTY TENNESSEE delay of game 5 yards to the TENNESSEE40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VANDERBILT.Similar
Q2 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
16.9%
Ray Davis run for 4 yds to the Tenn 36Similar
Q2 13:16
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+13
16.9%
Jayden McGowan run for 13 yds to the Tenn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-2
17.1%
Ray Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 25Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 12
OPP 25
+6
16.6%
Patrick Smith run for 6 yds to the Tenn 19Similar
Q2 11:28
3RD & 6
OPP 19
-2
16.4%
Mike Wright sacked by Roman Harrison for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 21Similar
Q2 10:48
4TH & 8
OPP 21
+39
16.2%
Joseph Bulovas 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:2385% → 85%
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
15.3%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Jalin Hyatt for 7 yds to the Tenn 28Similar
Q2 10:21
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+7
15.1%
Jaylen Wright run for 7 yds to the Tenn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
15.1%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Squirrel White for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 34Similar
Q2 9:42
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+6
15.0%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Ramel Keyton for 6 yds to the Tenn 40Similar
Q2 9:23
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
14.6%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Squirrel WhiteSimilar
Q2 9:17
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
15.0%
Paxton Brooks punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Will Sheppard at the Vandy 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 8PUNT RETURN TD
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0215% → 11%
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
15.2%
Patrick Smith run for no gain to the Vandy 25Similar
Q2 8:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
15.1%
Mike Wright pass incomplete to Ray DavisSimilar
Q2 8:27
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
15.0%
Mike Wright pass incomplete to Will SheppardSimilar
Q2 8:09
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+73
11.2%
Matt Hayball punt for 48 yds , Dee Williams returns for 73 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:2811% → 11%
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
11.3%
Ray Davis run for no gain to the Vandy 26Similar
Q2 7:25
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
11.0%
Mike Wright pass incomplete to Will SheppardSimilar
Q2 7:18
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+2
10.9%
Mike Wright pass complete to Will Sheppard for 2 yds to the Vandy 28Similar
Q2 6:31
4TH & 8
OWN 28
+20
10.7%
Matt Hayball punt for 43 yds , Squirrel White returns for 20 yds to the Tenn 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 10DOWNS
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:0192% → 92%
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
8.3%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Jalin HyattSimilar
Q2 6:17
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+15
8.3%
Milton III, Joe pass incomplete to White, Squirrel, PENALTY VANDERBILT pass interference (Lucien, Jeremy) 15 yards to the VANDERBILT36, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TENNESSEE.Similar
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
8.2%
Jabari Small run for 6 yds to the Vandy 30Similar
Q2 5:47
2ND & 4
OPP 30
0
7.9%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Squirrel WhiteSimilar
Q2 5:41
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+3
8.0%
Jabari Small run for 3 yds to the Vandy 27Similar
Q2 5:22
4TH & 1
OPP 27
-2
8.5%
Jabari Small run for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 11PUNT
13 plays · 32 yds · 4:0211% → 11%
Q2 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
10.6%
TENNESSEE Penalty, Defensive Offside (Byron Young) to the Vandy 34Similar
Q2 5:07
1ST & 5
OWN 34
+12
10.9%
Mike Wright run for 12 yds to the Vandy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
11.3%
Mike Wright pass complete to Will Sheppard for 6 yds to the Tenn 48Similar
Q2 4:02
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+5
11.4%
Patrick Smith run for 5 yds to the Tenn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
11.4%
VANDERBILT Penalty, False Start (Junior Uzebu) to the Tenn 48Similar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 15
OPP 48
+16
11.0%
Mike Wright run for 16 yds to the Tenn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-3
11.3%
Ray Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tenn 35Similar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 13
OPP 35
0
11.0%
Mike Wright pass complete to Jayden McGowan for no gain to the Tenn 35Similar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 13
OPP 35
-5
10.4%
VANDERBILT Penalty, False Start (Jacob Brammer) to the Tenn 40Similar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 18
OPP 40
+1
10.2%
Mike Wright run for 1 yd to the Tenn 39Similar
Q2 1:11
4TH & 17
OPP 39
0
11.3%
Matt Hayball punt for 37 yds, downed at the Tenn 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 12END OF HALF
4 plays · 17 yds · 0:4192% → 93%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+8
8.3%
Jabari Small run for 8 yds to the Tenn 10Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 2
OWN 10
+6
7.0%
Jabari Small run for 6 yds to the Tenn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
6.9%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Princeton FantSimilar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+3
6.8%
Dylan Sampson run for 3 yds to the Tenn 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 13DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:5310% → 10%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
9.9%
Ray Davis run for 5 yds to the Vandy 48Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+2
10.0%
Jayden McGowan run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:37
3RD & 3
50
+1
9.9%
Ray Davis run for 1 yd to the Tenn 49Similar
Q3 12:55
4TH & 2
OPP 49
-1
9.5%
Ray Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 14TD
2 plays · 50 yds · 0:2394% → 97%
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
50
-2
6.0%
Jabari Small run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 48Similar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 12
OWN 48
+52
2.6%
Jabari Small run for 52 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 15FUMBLE
5 plays · 25 yds · 1:243% → 2%
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
2.6%
Ray Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the Vandy 22Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+7
2.3%
Mike Wright pass complete to Will Sheppard for 7 yds to the Vandy 29Similar
Q3 11:08
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
2.1%
Mike Wright pass incomplete to Will SheppardSimilar
Q3 10:57
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+21
2.1%
Matt Hayball run for 21 yds to the 50 yard line Matt Hayball fumbled, forced by Dee Williams, recovered by Tenn Nick Humphrey , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 16TD
2 plays · 50 yds · 0:0998% → 99%
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
50
0
2.2%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Princeton FantSimilar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 10
50
+50
1.5%
Jaylen Wright run for 50 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 3 yds · 3:302% → 1%
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
1.5%
AJ Swann pass complete to Gamarion Carter for 5 yds to the Vandy 30Similar
Q3 10:02
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
1.4%
Patrick Smith run for 4 yds to the Vandy 34Similar
Q3 9:22
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
1.4%
Patrick Smith run for 2 yds to the Vandy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
1.3%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Ben BresnahanSimilar
Q3 8:37
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-1
1.2%
AJ Swann pass complete to Patrick Smith for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 35Similar
Q3 7:52
3RD & 11
OWN 35
-7
1.2%
AJ Swann sacked by Roman Harrison for a loss of 7 yards to the Vandy 28Similar
Q3 7:08
4TH & 18
OWN 28
+19
1.0%
Matt Hayball punt for 40 yds , Dee Williams returns for 19 yds to the Vandy 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 18TD
8 plays · 49 yds · 2:0699% → 99%
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+14
1.1%
Dylan Sampson run for 14 yds to the Vandy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
1.1%
Dylan Sampson run for 7 yds to the Vandy 28Similar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+7
1.0%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Ramel Keyton for 7 yds to the Vandy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
1.0%
Dylan Sampson run for 7 yds to the Vandy 14Similar
Q3 5:51
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+6
0.9%
Dylan Sampson run for 6 yds to the Vandy 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
0.9%
Dylan Sampson run for 1 yd to the Vandy 7Similar
Q3 4:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
0.8%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Walker Merrill for 7 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
Q3 4:53
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+15
0.9%
VANDERBILT Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 19DOWNS
10 plays · 41 yds · 3:511% → 0%
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+14
0.6%
AJ Swann pass complete to Ray Davis for 14 yds to the Vandy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
0.6%
Ray Davis run for 5 yds to the Vandy 43Similar
Q3 3:27
2ND & 5
OWN 43
0
0.5%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Justin BallSimilar
Q3 3:19
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+18
0.5%
AJ Swann pass complete to Will Sheppard for 18 yds to the Tenn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
0.5%
AJ Swann pass complete to Will Sheppard for 6 yds to the Tenn 33Similar
Q3 2:06
2ND & 4
OPP 33
0
0.5%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Will SheppardSimilar
Q3 1:49
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+3
0.5%
AJ Swann pass complete to Jayden McGowan for 3 yds to the Tenn 30Similar
Q3 1:21
4TH & 1
OPP 30
-5
0.5%
VANDERBILT Penalty, False Start (Julian Hernandez) to the Tenn 35Similar
Q3 0:51
4TH & 6
OPP 35
0
0.4%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Quincy Skinner Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4999% → 99%
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
0.6%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Squirrel WhiteSimilar
Q3 0:37
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
0.6%
Dylan Sampson run for 4 yds to the Tenn 39Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
0.6%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Ramel KeytonSimilar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
0.6%
Paxton Brooks punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Will Sheppard at the Vandy 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 21DOWNS
9 plays · 53 yds · 3:200% → 0%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
0.4%
AJ Swann pass complete to Will Sheppard for 9 yds to the Vandy 39Similar
Q4 14:07
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+15
0.3%
Swann, AJ pass incomplete to Skinner Jr., Quincy, PENALTY TENNESSEE pass interference (Brooks, Will) 15 yards to the TENNESSEE46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VANDERBILT.Similar
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
0.3%
Ray Davis run for 7 yds to the Tenn 39Similar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+16
0.3%
AJ Swann pass complete to Jayden McGowan for 16 yds to the Tenn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
0.3%
Ray Davis run for 5 yds to the Tenn 18Similar
Q4 12:08
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+1
0.3%
Ray Davis run for 1 yd to the Tenn 17Similar
Q4 11:32
3RD & 4
OPP 17
0
0.2%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Ben BresnahanSimilar
Q4 11:28
4TH & 4
OPP 17
0
0.2%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Gamarion CarterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 22TD
1 play · 83 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+83
0.4%
Jaylen Wright run for 83 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 3:150% → 0%
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
0.2%
Ray Davis run for 4 yds to the Vandy 30Similar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+11
0.1%
AJ Swann pass complete to Ben Bresnahan for 11 yds to the Vandy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-4
0.2%
AJ Swann run for a loss of 4 yards to the Vandy 37 AJ Swann fumbled, recovered by Vandy Ray DavisSimilar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 14
OWN 37
+8
0.1%
Ray Davis run for 8 yds to the Vandy 45Similar
Q4 8:58
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+2
0.1%
AJ Swann pass complete to Ray Davis for 2 yds to the Vandy 47Similar
Q4 7:54
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
0.1%
Matt Hayball punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 24TD
1 play · 80 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
0.4%
Dylan Sampson run for 80 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 2:000% → 0%
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
0.1%
Ray Davis run for 2 yds to the Vandy 29Similar
Q4 6:56
2ND & 8
OWN 29
-4
0.1%
AJ Swann pass complete to Ray Davis for a loss of 4 yards to the Vandy 25Similar
Q4 6:18
3RD & 12
OWN 25
-10
0.1%
AJ Swann sacked by Tyre West for a loss of 10 yards to the Vandy 15Similar
Q4 5:35
4TH & 22
OWN 15
0
0.1%
Matt Hayball punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Vandy 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:59100% → 100%
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
0.3%
Dylan Sampson run for 2 yds to the Vandy 42Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+4
0.3%
Gaston Moore pass complete to Hunter Salmon for 4 yds to the Vandy 38Similar
Q4 4:30
3RD & 4
OPP 38
-9
0.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 9 yards to the Vandy 47 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Tenn Gaston MooreSimilar
Q4 3:29
4TH & 13
OPP 47
0
0.3%
Paxton Brooks punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Will Sheppard at the Vandy 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 27END OF GAME
6 plays · 30 yds · 3:120% → 0%
Q4 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
0.1%
Cooper Lutz run for 1 yd to the Vandy 20Similar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+9
0.1%
Cooper Lutz run for 9 yds to the Vandy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+22
0.1%
Mike Wright run for 22 yds to the Tenn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-4
0.1%
Mike Wright run for a loss of 4 yards to the Vandy 47 Mike Wright fumbled, recovered by Vandy Mike WrightSimilar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 14
OWN 47
0
0.1%
Mike Wright run for no gain to the Vandy 47Similar
Q4 0:10
3RD & 14
OWN 47
+2
0.1%
Cooper Lutz run for 2 yds to the Vandy 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:26
Jabari Small run for 52 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)
-3.4
TD · Q1 1:57
Princeton Fant run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)
-2.4
TD · Q3 10:43
Jaylen Wright run for 50 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)
-0.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com