2022 · Week 13 · Nov 26, 2022 · Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)
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Win probability · CLEM
modelCLEM aheadSC aheadconfidence bandkey playCLEM scoreSC score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:14 · Spencer Rattler pass complete to Juju McDowell for 65 yds to the Clem 1 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 8:24: Spencer Rattler run for 4 yds for a TD, (Mitch Jeter KICK) — SC win probability +6.3 pts (now 25%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:08: Jaheim Bell run for 2 yds for a TD, (Mitch Jeter KICK) — SC win probability +10.9 pts (now 30%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:35: Will Shipley run for 11 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +10.7 pts (now 87%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:45: Spencer Rattler pass complete to Antwane Wells Jr. for 72 yds for a TD, (Mitch Jeter KICK) — SC win probability +16.0 pts (now 30%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- FG · Q4 10:54: Mitch Jeter 35 yd FG GOOD — SC win probability +10.7 pts (now 44%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 9SC made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
- Q1 13:28SC 4th & 2 at SC 33, tiedClose callPunted · 17.7% before the snapGo for it17.8%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 12:23CLEM 4th & 6 at CLEM 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 81.8% before the snapGo for it81.8%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.9%average punt
- Q1 10:00SC 4th & 11 at SC 45, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.6% before the snapGo for it17.5%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.6%average punt
- Q1 4:30SC 4th & 10 at CLEM 45, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.7% before the snapGo for it15.6%−0.230% to convertField goal15.3%−0.525% to makePuntTheir call15.8%average punt
- Q1 2:07CLEM 4th & 2 at CLEM 11, up 14Close callPunted · 84.7% before the snapGo for it85.1%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.1%−0.1average punt
- Q2 13:59SC 4th & 4 at CLEM 4, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call15.6%40% to convertField goal15.4%−0.393% to makePunt12.0%−3.6average punt
- Q2 10:11CLEM 4th & 9 at CLEM 46, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.8% before the snapGo for it80.3%−0.432% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call80.7%average punt
- Q2 4:14SC 4th & 1 at SC 34, down 9Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call17.7%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt17.0%−0.7average punt
- Q2 0:33CLEM 4th & 3 at SC 48, up 9Close callPunted · 82.8% before the snapGo for it82.7%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.4%−0.3average punt
- Q3 13:58CLEM 4th & 10 at CLEM 25, up 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.7% before the snapGo for it81.1%−1.528% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.6%average punt
- Q3 9:43CLEM 4th & 10 at CLEM 44, up 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.1% before the snapGo for it71.2%−1.729% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.0%average punt
- Q3 7:10SC 4th & 17 at SC 9, down 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.6% before the snapGo for it23.1%−3.213% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.3%average punt
- Q3 2:15CLEM 4th & 5 at CLEM 30, up 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.3% before the snapGo for it68.6%−0.841% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call69.5%average punt
- Q4 10:54SC 4th & 15 at CLEM 17, down 2Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.4% before the snapGo for it26.7%−6.215% to convertField goalTheir call32.9%80% to makePunt19.3%−13.6average punt
- Q4 9:59CLEM 4th & 7 at CLEM 28, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.9% before the snapGo for it49.4%−2.036% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call51.4%average punt
- Q4 7:06SC 4th & 3 at SC 37, up 1Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 52.3% before the snapGo for it53.4%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call52.2%−1.2average punt
- Q4 4:19SC 4th & 11 at SC 34, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.4% before the snapGo for it48.8%−8.326% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call57.1%average punt
- Q4 2:39CLEM 4th & 10 at CLEM 23, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.4% before the snapGo for it36.2%−1.328% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.5%average punt
- Q4 2:05SC 4th & 7 at SC 19, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.7% before the snapGo for it51.2%−4.235% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.3%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 4SC made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 12:15CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.4%97% to makeGo for two82.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:52CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.0%97% to makeGo for two84.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:59SC Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call18.7%97% to makeGo for two18.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:24SC Touchdown, down 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call23.3%97% to makeGo for two23.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:14CLEM Touchdown, up 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.7%97% to makeGo for two83.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:08SC Touchdown, down 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call26.4%97% to makeGo for two26.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:35CLEM Touchdown, up 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.1%97% to makeGo for two85.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:45SC Touchdown, down 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call29.0%97% to makeGo for two28.8%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSCDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1716% → 17%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
83.7%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Jalen Brooks for 3 yds to the SCaro 28Similar
Q1 14:14
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+5
83.6%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Austin Stogner for 5 yds to the SCaro 33Similar
Q1 13:28
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+5
83.4%
Kai Kroeger punt for 59 yds , Antonio Williams returns for 5 yds to the Clem 38 CLEMSON Penalty, Illegal Block (6 Yards) to the Clem 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 22 yds · 0:5883% → 83%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 3INT TD1 play · 0 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-35
83.6%
Spencer Rattler pass intercepted for a TD Jeremiah Trotter Jr. return for 35 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 4PUNT8 plays · 21 yds · 1:3217% → 17%
CLEMDrive 5TD8 plays · 90 yds · 4:0384% → 86%
SCDrive 6PUNT7 plays · 37 yds · 1:0315% → 15%
CLEMDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 2:0886% → 86%
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
85.8%
Phil Mafah run for 2 yds to the Clem 5 CLEMSON Penalty, Offensive Holding (-2 Yards) to the Clem 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 8TD8 plays · 51 yds · 2:5615% → 18%
CLEMDrive 9PUNT11 plays · 21 yds · 3:3783% → 82%
Q2 12:39
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+6
82.1%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Beaux Collins for 6 yds to the Clem 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 10SF1 play · -2 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 11TD5 plays · 37 yds · 1:0618% → 25%
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
82.2%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Antwane Wells Jr. for 6 yds to the Clem 31Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+23
81.5%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Jalen Brooks for 23 yds to the Clem 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
81.5%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Antwane Wells Jr. for 4 yds to the Clem 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 12TD6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4479% → 84%
SCDrive 13INT7 plays · 73 yds · 2:3717% → 19%
Q2 5:43
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
83.2%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Nate Adkins for 6 yds to the SCaro 34Similar
Q2 4:14
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+65
83.6%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Juju McDowell for 65 yds to the Clem 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
81.0%
Spencer Rattler pass intercepted, touchback. R.J. Mickens return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 14PUNT10 plays · 32 yds · 2:1784% → 83%
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
84.6%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 3 yds to the Clem 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 15END OF HALF2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0818% → 17%
CLEMDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5784% → 82%
Q3 13:58
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+37
82.3%
Aidan Swanson punt for 38 yds , Ahmarean Brown returns for 37 yds to the Clem 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 17TD4 plays · 26 yds · 1:4220% → 30%
CLEMDrive 18PUNT8 plays · 19 yds · 2:1275% → 73%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 19PUNT4 plays · -7 yds · 2:1827% → 25%
Q3 8:45
2ND & 12
OWN 14
+3
73.3%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to MarShawn Lloyd for 3 yds to the SCaro 17Similar
Q3 8:18
3RD & 9
OWN 17
-8
74.1%
Spencer Rattler sacked by K.J. Henry and Wade Woodaz for a loss of 8 yards to the SCaro 9Similar
Q3 7:10
4TH & 17
OWN 9
+23
75.0%
Kai Kroeger punt for 61 yds , Antonio Williams returns for 23 yds to the SCaro 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 20TD6 plays · 47 yds · 2:3176% → 87%
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+10
76.9%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Will Shipley for 10 yds to the SCaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 21TD3 plays · 75 yds · 0:3914% → 30%
CLEMDrive 22PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1872% → 69%
Q3 2:59
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
72.0%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Antonio Williams for no gain to the Clem 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 23FG11 plays · 54 yds · 6:0531% → 44%
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+14
69.2%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Antwane Wells Jr. for 14 yds to the SCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+20
66.0%
Jaheim Bell run for 5 yds to the Clem 48 for a 1ST down CLEMSON Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Clem 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
65.2%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Antwane Wells Jr. for 15 yds to the Clem 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
62.8%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Antwane Wells Jr. for 3 yds to the Clem 19Similar
Q4 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-13
62.0%
Jaheim Bell run for 2 yds to the Clem 10 SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (-15 Yards) to the Clem 25Similar
Q4 12:34
1ST & 23
OPP 25
-1
63.8%
Spencer Rattler sacked by Jeremiah Trotter Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the Clem 26Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 24
OPP 26
+6
64.8%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Nate Adkins for 6 yds to the Clem 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 24PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4458% → 54%
Q4 9:59
4TH & 7
OWN 28
-4
54.2%
Aidan Swanson punt for 50 yds , Ahmarean Brown returns for a loss of 4 yards to the SCaro 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 25PUNT6 plays · 19 yds · 2:4347% → 51%
CLEMDrive 26INT2 plays · 22 yds · 0:2354% → 55%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+22
54.3%
Will Shipley run for 7 yds to the Clem 9 for a 1ST down SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Clem 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
55.2%
DJ Uiagalelei pass intercepted Marcellas Dial return for no gain to the SCaro 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 27PUNT6 plays · -1 yds · 2:0655% → 52%
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
44.7%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Jaheim Bell for a loss of 1 yard to the SCaro 34Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 11
OWN 34
-8
45.6%
Jaheim Bell run for 2 yds to the SCaro 36 SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the SCaro 26Similar
Q4 4:59
3RD & 19
OWN 26
+8
47.9%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Antwane Wells Jr. for 8 yds to the SCaro 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 28PUNT7 plays · 20 yds · 1:2953% → 48%
SCDrive 29FUMBLE6 plays · 3 yds · 0:2958% → 57%
Q4 2:05
4TH & 7
OWN 19
+8
43.1%
Kai Kroeger punt for 45 yds , Antonio Williams returns for 8 yds to the Clem 44 Antonio Williams fumbled, recovered by SCaro Nick EmmanworiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 30END OF GAME6 plays · 8 yds · 1:3469% → 87%
Q4 1:00
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+5
20.1%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Antwane Wells Jr. for 5 yds to the Clem 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:45
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Antwane Wells Jr. for 72 yds for a TD, (Mitch Jeter KICK)
-16
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-13.5
TD · Q3 12:08
Jaheim Bell run for 2 yds for a TD, (Mitch Jeter KICK)
-10.9