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ARK

Arkansas 27 at Missouri 29

MIZ
2022 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2022 · Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · MIZ
modelMIZ aheadARK aheadconfidence bandkey playMIZ scoreARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:34 · Reid Bauer punt for 47 yds, downed at the Misso 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+23.5+11.80−11.8−23.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 33Pregame prior−9.7Home team on offense+0.8Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Score differential+0.1Blowout margin+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 5:26: Harrison Mevis 27 yd FG GOOD — MIZ win probability +7.3 pts (now 56%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:35: KJ Jefferson pass complete to Raheim Sanders for 8 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) — ARK win probability +14.8 pts (now 62%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:09: Luther Burden III 23 Yd pass from Brady Cook (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — MIZ win probability +14.0 pts (now 63%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 5:32: Harrison Mevis 29 yd FG GOOD — MIZ win probability +9.8 pts (now 75%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 1:43: Cam Little 46 yd FG GOOD — ARK win probability +8.3 pts (now 40%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIZ made the numbers' call on 8 of 9ARK made the numbers' call on 2 of 6
  1. Q1 12:50ARK 4th & 13 at ARK 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:34MIZ 4th & 6 at ARK 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.3%
    70% to make
    Punt
    43.5%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:34ARK 4th & 8 at ARK 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:26MIZ 4th & 5 at ARK 10, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.3%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.3%
    88% to make
    Punt
    46.6%−5.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:10MIZ 4th & 2 at MIZ 47, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.4%
    average punt
  6. Q3 15:00MIZ 4th & 2 at ARK 45, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    45.5%−3.5
    25% to make
    Punt
    47.7%−1.3
    average punt
  7. Q3 5:32MIZ 4th & 5 at ARK 12, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.6%
    86% to make
    Punt
    51.7%−12.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 1:43ARK 4th & 4 at MIZ 28, down 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.3%−1.4
    60% to make
    Punt
    10.3%−12.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:10MIZ 4th & 15 at MIZ 20, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%−5.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.2%
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:40ARK 4th & 2 at MIZ 2, down 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 38.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.4%−4.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    19.6%−20.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:24MIZ 4th & 9 at ARK 49, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.2%−1.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:26ARK 4th & 5 at ARK 15, down 2
    Close callPunted · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.8%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:15MIZ 4th & 12 at ARK 37, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.3%−1.9
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.2%
    40% to make
    Punt
    69.3%−1.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:56ARK 4th & 7 at ARK 40, down 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.7%−1.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:14MIZ 4th & 2 at midfield, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.2%−1.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIZ made the numbers' call on 2 of 3ARK made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 5:26ARK Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:56MIZ Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:56MIZ Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:26ARK Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:35ARK Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:09MIZ Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    61.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    61.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 2:1062% → 61%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
37.6%
Raheim Sanders run for no gain to the Ark 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
37.6%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Matt Landers for 4 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-7
37.6%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Isaiah McGuire for a loss of 7 yards to the Ark 22Similar
Q1 12:50
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
38.6%
Reid Bauer punt for 47 yds, downed at the Misso 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 2FG
8 plays · 46 yds · 3:1639% → 41%
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+27
38.5%
Brady Cook run for 27 yds to the Ark 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
38.7%
MISSOURI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 47Similar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 15
OPP 47
+5
38.6%
Brady Cook run for 5 yds to the Ark 42Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+15
38.7%
Brady Cook pass complete to Mookie Cooper for 15 yds to the Ark 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
38.8%
Cody Schrader run for 5 yds to the Ark 22Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 5
OPP 22
-1
38.8%
Nathaniel Peat run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 23Similar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 6
OPP 23
0
38.7%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:34
4TH & 6
OPP 23
+40
40.5%
Harrison Mevis 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:0860% → 62%
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
40.2%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Ark 27Similar
Q1 9:34
1ST & 8
OWN 27
+3
40.1%
Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
40.1%
KJ Jefferson run for 5 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
40.1%
Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds to the Ark 38Similar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+8
39.9%
Raheim Sanders run for 8 yds to the Ark 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+37
39.8%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Matt Landers for 37 yds to the Misso 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+10
39.5%
KJ Jefferson run for 10 yds to the Misso 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
39.5%
Raheim Sanders run for 1 yd to the Misso 6Similar
Q1 9:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
39.5%
MISSOURI Penalty, Offsides ( Yards) to the Misso 3Similar
Q1 5:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
38.2%
KJ Jefferson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 4TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3039% → 45%
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
39.2%
Brady Cook pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 12 yds to the Misso 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
39.6%
Brady Cook run for 3 yds to the Misso 40Similar
Q1 5:26
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
40.1%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:26
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+27
39.4%
Brady Cook pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 27 yds to the Ark 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+24
40.8%
Brady Cook pass complete to Mookie Cooper for 24 yds to the Ark 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
40.8%
Brady Cook pass complete to Mookie Cooper for 6 yds to the Ark 3Similar
Q1 2:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
44.7%
Cody Schrader run for 3 yds for a TD, (Harrison Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2256% → 55%
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
43.6%
Raheim Sanders run for 4 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q1 2:56
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
43.3%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:56
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-2
43.8%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Raheim Sanders for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 27Similar
Q1 1:34
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
44.8%
Reid Bauer punt for 47 yds, downed at the Misso 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 6TD
5 plays · 74 yds · 1:3844% → 50%
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
43.5%
Cody Schrader run for 5 yds to the Misso 31Similar
Q1 1:34
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+55
43.7%
Brady Cook pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 55 yds to the Ark 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
45.2%
Cody Schrader run for no gain to the Ark 14Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+5
46.1%
Brady Cook run for 5 yds to the Ark 9Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+9
50.4%
Brady Cook run for 9 yds for a TD, (Harrison Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:3050% → 55%
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
49.6%
AJ Green run for 3 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
49.4%
KJ Jefferson run for 7 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
49.2%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 4 yds to the Ark 39Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+7
48.6%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 7 yds to the Ark 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-8
48.5%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Isaiah McGuire for a loss of 8 yards to the Ark 38Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 18
OWN 38
+19
49.5%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 19 yds to the Misso 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-3
48.2%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Johnny Walker Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the Misso 46Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 13
OPP 46
+12
48.7%
KJ Jefferson run for 12 yds to the Misso 34Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+5
48.0%
KJ Jefferson run for 5 yds to the Misso 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-1
47.3%
Raheim Sanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 30Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 11
OPP 30
+3
47.6%
KJ Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Misso 27Similar
Q2 9:26
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+27
44.9%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Matt Landers for 27 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 8FG
10 plays · 65 yds · 4:0047% → 56%
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
46.8%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
46.6%
Brady Cook run for 11 yds to the Misso 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
47.5%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:26
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+17
47.1%
Brady Cook run for 17 yds to the Ark 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
49.0%
COOK, Brady pass to the right incomplete intended for BURDEN, Luther thrown to the ARK5. PENALTY Before the snap, MIZ Illegal Shift on BURDEN, Luther enforced 5 yards from the ARK47 to the MIZ48. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:26
1ST & 15
OWN 48
+37
47.6%
Brady Cook run for 37 yds to the Ark 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
49.4%
Brady Cook pass complete to Dominic Lovett for no gain to the Ark 15Similar
Q2 9:26
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+3
49.4%
Cody Schrader run for 3 yds to the Ark 12Similar
Q2 9:26
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+2
48.6%
Brady Cook run for 2 yds to the Ark 10Similar
Q2 5:26
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+27
56.0%
Harrison Mevis 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:5147% → 62%
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
53.2%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
53.4%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Matt Landers for 11 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
52.3%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:26
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
52.8%
Rashod Dubinion run for 4 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q2 5:26
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+13
52.3%
KJ Jefferson run for 13 yds to the Misso 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
50.4%
Rashod Dubinion run for 3 yds to the Misso 44Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 7
OPP 44
0
54.7%
KJ Jefferson run for no gain to the Misso 44Similar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+21
55.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 21 yds to the Misso 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+12
53.3%
Rashod Dubinion run for 12 yds to the Misso 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
53.3%
KJ Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Misso 8Similar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+8
38.4%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Raheim Sanders for 8 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 1:2545% → 45%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
44.9%
Brady Cook pass complete to Tauskie Dove for 14 yds to the Misso 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
46.2%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+9
45.0%
Brady Cook run for 9 yds to the Misso 48Similar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 1
OWN 48
-1
46.1%
Cody Schrader run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 47Similar
Q2 0:10
4TH & 2
OWN 47
0
45.0%
Jack Stonehouse punt for 39 yds, downed at the Ark 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
42.2%
[NHSG] Kneel down by ARK at ARK13 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 12TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:5145% → 63%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
44.5%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
44.3%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+22
43.1%
Brady Cook pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 22 yds to the Misso 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
47.6%
Nathaniel Peat run for 2 yds to the Misso 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 49
0
47.7%
Nathaniel Peat run for no gain to the Misso 49Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+6
46.3%
Brady Cook pass complete to Mekhi Miller for 6 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 45
+14
46.1%
Brady Cook pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 14 yds to the Ark 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
49.4%
Cody Schrader run for 6 yds to the Ark 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+7
49.4%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 7 yds to the Ark 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
49.4%
BURDEN, Luther rush up the middle for a gain of 3 yards to the ARK15 (JACKSON, Landon). PENALTY Before the snap, MIZ Illegal Formation on BURDEN, Luther enforced 5 yards from the ARK18 to the ARK23. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:09
1ST & 15
OPP 23
+23
63.4%
Luther Burden III 23 Yd pass from Brady Cook (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13INT
3 plays · -5 yds · 1:1843% → 40%
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
57.4%
Rashod Dubinion run for 1 yd to the Ark 26Similar
Q3 10:09
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-6
57.4%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Martez Manuel for a loss of 6 yards to the Ark 20Similar
Q3 8:51
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
60.1%
KJ Jefferson pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 14FG
8 plays · 17 yds · 3:1965% → 75%
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
65.1%
Brady Cook run for 4 yds to the Ark 25Similar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+2
65.1%
Cody Schrader run for 2 yds to the Ark 23Similar
Q3 8:51
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+6
63.7%
Brady Cook run for 6 yds to the Ark 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-10
66.5%
SCHRADER, Cody rush up the middle for a gain of 17 yards to the ARK0, TOUCHDOWN MIZ, score nullified by penalty, clock 06:55 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY MIZ Holding on TOLLISON, Connor enforced 10 yards from the ARK17 to the ARK27 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 20
OPP 27
+12
65.9%
Cody Schrader run for 12 yds to the Ark 15Similar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+3
66.5%
Cody Schrader run for 3 yds to the Ark 12Similar
Q3 6:55
3RD & 5
OPP 12
0
65.1%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:32
4TH & 5
OPP 12
+29
74.9%
Harrison Mevis 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15FG
10 plays · 47 yds · 3:4928% → 40%
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
71.8%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 14 yds to the Ark 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-3
70.0%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Darius Robinson for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 36Similar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 13
OWN 36
0
71.8%
Raheim Sanders run for no gain to the Ark 36Similar
Q3 5:32
3RD & 13
OWN 36
+9
72.8%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Raheim Sanders for 9 yds Raheim Sanders fumbled, recovered by Ark for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
68.2%
Rashod Dubinion run for 8 yds to the Misso 40Similar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+6
67.7%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for 6 yds to the Misso 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-2
66.6%
Rashod Dubinion run for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 36Similar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 12
OPP 36
+8
69.4%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 8 yds to the Misso 28Similar
Q3 5:32
3RD & 4
OPP 28
0
67.9%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:43
4TH & 4
OPP 28
+46
59.6%
Cam Little 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:3365% → 63%
Q3 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
64.9%
Cody Schrader run for 2 yds to the Misso 27Similar
Q3 1:43
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-7
64.9%
Brady Cook sacked by Jashaud Stewart for a loss of 7 yards to the Misso 20Similar
Q3 1:43
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
62.7%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:10
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+11
62.6%
Jack Stonehouse punt for 44 yds , Bryce Stephens returns for 11 yds to the Ark 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17FG
8 plays · 51 yds · 2:2042% → 44%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+18
58.3%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trey Knox for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down MISSOURI Penalty, Personal Foul (DJ Coleman) to the Misso 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+17
56.0%
Raheim Sanders run for 17 yds to the Misso 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+13
55.2%
KJ Jefferson run for 13 yds to the Misso 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
55.2%
JEFFERSON, KJ pass up the middle incomplete intended for JACKSON JR., Ketron thrown to the MIZ0. PENALTY MIZ Pass Interference on RAKESTRAW JR., Ennis enforced 3 yards to the MIZ2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
55.3%
KJ Jefferson run for no gain to the Misso 2Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
55.2%
Trey Knox run for no gain to the Misso 2Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
57.1%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
56.2%
Cam Little 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 18PUNT
11 plays · 26 yds · 4:1662% → 63%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
61.8%
Cody Schrader run for no gain to the Misso 25Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
61.4%
Brady Cook pass complete to Cody Schrader for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 23Similar
Q4 12:40
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+1
59.3%
COOK, Brady pass to the right incomplete intended for BURDEN, Luther thrown to the MIZ25. PENALTY ARK Pass Interference on SANDERS, Drew enforced at the spot of the foul for 1 yards to the MIZ24 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-3
61.8%
Brady Cook pass complete to Cody Schrader for a loss of 3 yards to the Misso 21Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 13
OWN 21
+29
61.1%
Cody Schrader run for 29 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
50
-5
65.9%
COOK, Brady pass up the middle complete for -4 yards to COOPER, Mookie caught at the MIZ44 and advanced to the MIZ46 (MCGLOTHERN, Dwight). PENALTY MIZ Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on DELGADO, Xavier enforced 5 yards from the ARK50 to the MIZ45 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 15
OWN 45
+3
63.3%
Brady Cook run for 3 yds to the Misso 48Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 12
OWN 48
-5
63.6%
MISSOURI Penalty, Illegal Substitution (TEAM) to the Misso 43Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 17
OWN 43
0
62.7%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:40
3RD & 17
OWN 43
+8
60.8%
Brady Cook run for 8 yds to the Ark 49Similar
Q4 8:24
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
62.9%
Jack Stonehouse punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:5838% → 34%
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
61.6%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trey Knox for 1 yd to the Ark 11Similar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 9
OWN 11
-8
62.0%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Kristian Williams for a loss of 8 yards to the Ark 3Similar
Q4 8:24
3RD & 17
OWN 3
+12
64.5%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trey Knox for 12 yds to the Ark 15Similar
Q4 6:26
4TH & 5
OWN 15
0
66.2%
punt blocked by blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 20MISSED FG
4 plays · -2 yds · 2:1175% → 71%
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
74.9%
Brady Cook run for 2 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q4 6:26
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+2
74.9%
Cody Schrader run for 2 yds to the Ark 31Similar
Q4 6:26
3RD & 6
OPP 31
-6
73.2%
Brady Cook sacked by Drew Sanders for a loss of 6 yards to the Ark 37Similar
Q4 4:15
4TH & 12
OPP 37
+55
71.2%
Harrison Mevis 55 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1936% → 32%
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
64.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 4 yds to the Ark 41Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
61.1%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:15
3RD & 6
OWN 41
-1
63.3%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Martez Manuel for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 40Similar
Q4 2:56
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
68.5%
Reid Bauer punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 22PUNT
12 plays · 36 yds · 2:4274% → 94%
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
74.1%
Cody Schrader run for 5 yds to the Misso 19Similar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 5
OWN 19
-5
73.9%
MISSOURI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Misso 14Similar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+6
79.1%
Cody Schrader run for 6 yds to the Misso 20Similar
Q4 2:01
3RD & 4
OWN 20
+22
78.1%
Brady Cook pass complete to Mekhi Miller for 22 yds to the Misso 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
88.0%
Cody Schrader run for 3 yds to the Misso 45Similar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+2
89.3%
Cody Schrader run for 2 yds to the Misso 47Similar
Q4 0:24
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+3
92.7%
Brady Cook run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:14
4TH & 2
50
0
93.6%
Jack Stonehouse punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 23FUMBLE
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:1214% → 14%
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
86.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trey Knox for 12 yds to the Ark 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
85.0%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:02
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+4
86.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trey Knox for 4 yds Trey Knox fumbled, recovered by Ark Ricky Stromberg , return for no gain to the Ark 32 , return for no gain to the Ark 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:35
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Raheim Sanders for 8 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)
-14.8
TD · Q3 10:09
Luther Burden III 23 Yd pass from Brady Cook (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
+14
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+14
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com