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AUB

Auburn 27 at Alabama 49

ALA
2022 · Week 13 · Nov 26, 2022 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
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Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadAUB aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreAUB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:31 · Oscar Chapman punt for 36 yds , Kool-Aid McKinstry returns for a loss of 12 yards to the Alab 24 Kool-Aid McKinstry fumbled, recovered by Alab Kool-Aid McKinstry
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 75Pregame prior+30.0Home team on offense+10.2Score differential+3.3Garbage-time factor+0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.5Blowout margin+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:56: Roydell Williams run for 5 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +1.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:34: Robby Ashford pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 20 yds for a TD, (Alex McPherson KICK) — AUB win probability +2.7 pts (now 11%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:39: Ja'Corey Brooks 32 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Will Reichard Kick) — ALA win probability +2.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:54: Bryce Young pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 27 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +3.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:38: Robby Ashford run for 14 yds for a TD, (Alex McPherson KICK) — AUB win probability +2.0 pts (now 2%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 2 of 3AUB made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 13:25AUB 4th & 7 at AUB 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:41ALA 4th & 3 at AUB 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 91.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    90.9%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:29AUB 4th & 15 at AUB 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 4:31AUB 4th & 15 at AUB 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%−0.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:47ALA 4th & 17 at ALA 17, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.0%−1.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:13AUB 4th & 10 at AUB 42, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 4:20ALA 4th & 6 at ALA 46, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 0:52AUB 4th & 1 at ALA 37, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%−0.8
    40% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q4 12:18AUB 4th & 14 at ALA 15, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.6
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.2%
    83% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−1.4
    average punt
  10. Q4 4:19AUB 4th & 3 at AUB 25, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.4%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:08AUB 4th & 7 at ALA 22, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.6%
    72% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7AUB made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 8:31AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:25ALA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:37ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:56ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:34AUB Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 5:39ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:54ALA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 9:57ALA Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 6:38AUB Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 1:48ALA Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AUBDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:297% → 7%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
93.5%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (Kilian Zierer) to the Aub 16Similar
Q1 14:34
1ST & 15
OWN 16
0
93.4%
Robby Ashford run for no gain to the Aub 16Similar
Q1 14:13
2ND & 15
OWN 16
+8
93.3%
Tank Bigsby run for 8 yds to the Aub 24Similar
Q1 13:33
3RD & 7
OWN 24
0
93.2%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:25
4TH & 7
OWN 24
0
93.2%
Oscar Chapman punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jahmyr Gibbs at the Alab 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:1493% → 93%
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+13
93.0%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 13 yds to the Alab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
93.1%
Bryce Young pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:44
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+7
93.0%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 7 yds to the Aub 46Similar
Q1 12:05
3RD & 3
OPP 46
0
92.9%
Bryce Young run for no gain to the Aub 46Similar
Q1 11:41
4TH & 3
OPP 46
0
92.8%
James Burnip punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 3TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 2:407% → 9%
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
92.6%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for no gain to the Aub 20Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+25
92.5%
Robby Ashford run for 25 yds to the Aub 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
92.3%
Tank Bigsby run for 6 yds to the Alab 49Similar
Q1 9:49
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+8
92.1%
Tank Bigsby run for 8 yds to the Alab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
91.9%
Ashford, Robby pass incomplete to Brown, Camden, PENALTY ALABAMA pass interference (Ricks, Eli) 15 yards to the ALABAMA26, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN AUBURN.Similar
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
91.8%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Tank Bigsby for 2 yds to the Alab 24Similar
Q1 8:31
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+24
90.8%
Robby Ashford run for 24 yds for a TD, (Alex McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4TD
6 plays · 62 yds · 1:5591% → 92%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
91.1%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Cameron LatuSimilar
Q1 8:11
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+52
91.0%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 52 yds to the Aub 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
91.2%
Jase McClellan run for 1 yd to the Aub 9Similar
Q1 7:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
90.9%
Jase McClellan run for 4 yds to the Aub 5Similar
Q1 6:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
91.6%
Bryce Young run for 5 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 1:489% → 9%
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
91.2%
Tank Bigsby run for a loss of 4 yards to the Aub 21Similar
Q1 5:36
2ND & 14
OWN 21
-1
91.0%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Tank Bigsby for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 20Similar
Q1 5:13
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+5
91.0%
Tank Bigsby run for 5 yds to the Aub 25Similar
Q1 4:50
4TH & 10
OWN 25
-5
91.0%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (Derick Hall) to the Aub 20Similar
Q1 4:29
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
90.9%
Oscar Chapman punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Kool-Aid McKinstry at the Alab 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 2:4391% → 92%
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
90.7%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 6 yds to the Alab 41Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
90.9%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Kendrick LawSimilar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+13
90.7%
Bryce Young pass complete to Kendrick Law for 13 yds to the Aub 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
90.9%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for 7 yds to the Aub 39Similar
Q1 3:01
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+11
90.8%
Bryce Young pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 11 yds to the Aub 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+17
90.8%
Bryce Young pass complete to Robbie Ouzts for 17 yds to the Aub 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
90.7%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 1 yd to the Aub 10Similar
Q1 1:37
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+10
92.0%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jase McClellan for 10 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7FUMBLE
3 plays · 23 yds · 0:249% → 9%
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
91.4%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Shedrick Jackson for 13 yds to the Aub 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
91.1%
Jarquez Hunter run for 10 yds to the Aub 48 Jarquez Hunter fumbled, recovered by Alab DJ DaleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8TD
4 plays · 48 yds · 0:5192% → 94%
Q1 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
91.8%
Bryce Young pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 13 yds to the Aub 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+24
91.8%
Bryce Young pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 24 yds to the Aub 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
91.8%
Jase McClellan run for 6 yds to the Aub 5Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+5
93.8%
Roydell Williams run for 5 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:227% → 11%
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
93.0%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Aub 20Similar
Q2 14:47
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+19
93.0%
Jarquez Hunter run for 19 yds to the Aub 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
92.8%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+10
92.8%
Tank Bigsby run for 10 yds to the Aub 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+17
92.7%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Koy Moore for 17 yds to the Alab 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
92.4%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Tank Bigsby for 3 yds to the Alab 31Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+6
92.3%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for 6 yds to the Alab 25Similar
Q2 11:23
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+2
92.4%
Jarquez Hunter run for 2 yds to the Alab 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
92.2%
Tank Bigsby run for 2 yds to the Alab 21Similar
Q2 10:12
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+1
92.1%
Tank Bigsby run for 1 yd to the Alab 20Similar
Q2 9:34
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+20
89.5%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 20 yds for a TD, (Alex McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10TD
10 plays · 92 yds · 3:4390% → 94%
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
90.3%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 6 yds to the Alab 14Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 4
OWN 14
+2
90.2%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 2 yds to the Alab 16Similar
Q2 8:26
3RD & 2
OWN 16
+18
89.9%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 18 yds to the Alab 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-10
90.5%
Earle, JoJo rush for 5 yards to the ALABAMA39, PENALTY ALABAMA holding (Burton, Jermaine) 10 yards to the ALABAMA24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 20
OWN 24
0
90.2%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jermaine BurtonSimilar
Q2 7:22
2ND & 20
OWN 24
+1
90.2%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for 1 yd to the Alab 25Similar
Q2 6:22
3RD & 19
OWN 25
+39
89.7%
Bryce Young pass complete to Kendrick Law for 39 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
90.8%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 4 yds to the Aub 32Similar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+32
93.5%
Ja'Corey Brooks 32 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Will Reichard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 11FUMBLE
7 plays · -5 yds · 1:027% → 7%
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
92.7%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (Kameron Stutts) to the Aub 28Similar
Q2 5:33
1ST & 15
OWN 28
-5
92.8%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (Keiondre Jones) to the Aub 23Similar
Q2 5:26
1ST & 20
OWN 23
+5
92.8%
Tank Bigsby run for 5 yds to the Aub 28Similar
Q2 4:47
2ND & 15
OWN 28
0
92.8%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:40
3RD & 15
OWN 28
0
92.9%
Robby Ashford pass incomplete to Shedrick JacksonSimilar
Q2 4:31
4TH & 15
OWN 28
-12
93.0%
Oscar Chapman punt for 36 yds , Kool-Aid McKinstry returns for a loss of 12 yards to the Alab 24 Kool-Aid McKinstry fumbled, recovered by Alab Kool-Aid McKinstrySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12FUMBLE
6 plays · -7 yds · 1:1893% → 93%
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
93.1%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 3 yds to the Alab 27Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 7
OWN 27
0
93.1%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Terrion ArnoldSimilar
Q2 3:38
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+5
93.0%
Young, Bryce pass incomplete to Brooks, Ja'Corey, PENALTY AUBURN offside (Wooden, Colby) 5 yards to the ALABAMA32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 2
OWN 32
-15
93.1%
Young, Bryce pass complete to Ouzts, Robbie for 17 yards to the ALABAMA49, PENALTY ALABAMA pass interference (Brooks, Ja'Corey) 15 yards to the ALABAMA17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:47
3RD & 17
OWN 17
0
93.1%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Ja'Corey BrooksSimilar
Q2 2:47
4TH & 17
OWN 17
+1
92.8%
James Burnip punt for 47 yds , Keionte Scott returns for 1 yd to the Aub 37 Keionte Scott fumbled, recovered by Alab Kneeland HibbettSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 13TD
5 plays · 37 yds · 1:4694% → 98%
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
93.6%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Isaiah BondSimilar
Q2 2:34
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-10
93.6%
McClellan, Jase rush for 8 yards to the AUBURN29, PENALTY ALABAMA holding (Booker, Tyler) 10 yards to the AUBURN47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 20
OPP 47
+21
93.6%
Bryce Young run for 21 yds to the Aub 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-1
94.0%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 27Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 11
OPP 27
+27
97.6%
Bryce Young pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 27 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:293% → 3%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
96.7%
Robby Ashford run for 12 yds to the Aub 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
96.6%
Robby Ashford pass incomplete to Jarquez HunterSimilar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
96.6%
Robby Ashford pass incomplete to Koy MooreSimilar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 10
OWN 42
0
96.7%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:13
4TH & 10
OWN 42
+50
96.8%
Oscar Chapman punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Kool-Aid McKinstry at the ALABAMA 16 ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (8 Yards) to the Alab 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 15END OF HALF
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:0597% → 97%
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-3
97.4%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 5Similar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 13
OWN 5
+4
97.4%
Jase McClellan run for 4 yds to the Alab 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16TD
11 plays · 72 yds · 4:2297% → 100%
Q3 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-3
97.3%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 25Similar
Q3 13:55
2ND & 13
OWN 25
+10
97.3%
Bryce Young pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 10 yds to the Alab 35Similar
Q3 13:28
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+17
97.3%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 17 yds to the Aub 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+14
97.6%
Bryce Young run for 14 yds to the Aub 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
97.6%
Jase McClellan run for 8 yds to the Aub 26Similar
Q3 11:46
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+7
97.7%
Bryce Young pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 7 yds to the Aub 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
97.7%
Bryce Young run for 8 yds to the Aub 11Similar
Q3 10:37
2ND & 2
OPP 11
+5
97.7%
Jase McClellan run for 5 yds to the Aub 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 0
OPP 6
+4
97.9%
Young, Bryce pass incomplete to Brooks, Ja'Corey, PENALTY AUBURN pass interference (James, D.J.) 4 yards to the AUBURN2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALABAMA.Similar
Q3 9:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.5%
Jase McClellan run for 2 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:001% → 2%
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
99.5%
Jarquez Hunter run for 12 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
99.5%
Tank Bigsby run for 5 yds to the Aub 42Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+4
99.6%
Tank Bigsby run for 4 yds to the Aub 46Similar
Q3 8:02
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+45
99.6%
Jarquez Hunter run for 45 yds to the Alab 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
99.6%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Tank Bigsby for a loss of 5 yards to the Alab 14Similar
Q3 6:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
0
99.6%
Robby Ashford pass incomplete to John Samuel ShenkerSimilar
Q3 6:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
+14
97.6%
Robby Ashford run for 14 yds for a TD, (Alex McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:0598% → 97%
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
97.8%
Bryce Young pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 9 yds to the Alab 39Similar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+3
98.0%
Jase McClellan run for 3 yds to the Alab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
98.0%
Jase McClellan run for 4 yds to the Alab 46Similar
Q3 4:36
2ND & 6
OWN 46
0
98.0%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jahmyr GibbsSimilar
Q3 4:31
3RD & 6
OWN 46
0
97.6%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Traeshon HoldenSimilar
Q3 4:20
4TH & 6
OWN 46
+10
97.4%
James Burnip punt for 43 yds , Keionte Scott returns for 10 yds to the Aub 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 19FG
18 plays · 64 yds · 6:322% → 3%
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
98.1%
Tank Bigsby run for 8 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q3 3:27
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+5
98.0%
Tank Bigsby run for 5 yds to the Aub 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
98.1%
Robby Ashford run for 10 yds to the Aub 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
98.1%
Robby Ashford run for 10 yds to the Alab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
98.3%
Jarquez Hunter run for 4 yds to the Alab 42Similar
Q3 1:19
2ND & 6
OPP 42
0
98.3%
Robby Ashford pass incomplete to Omari KellySimilar
Q3 1:11
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+5
98.4%
Jarquez Hunter run for 5 yds to the Alab 37Similar
Q3 0:52
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+6
98.5%
Robby Ashford run for 6 yds to the Alab 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
98.5%
Robby Ashford run for no gain to the Alab 31Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-5
98.6%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (Tank Bigsby) to the Alab 36Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 15
OPP 36
0
98.7%
Tank Bigsby run for no gain to the Alab 36Similar
Q4 13:55
3RD & 15
OPP 36
+25
99.0%
Robby Ashford run for 13 yds to the Alab 23 for a 1ST down ALABAMA Penalty, Face Mask (12 yards) (Brian Branch) to the Alab 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
98.7%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Will Anderson Jr.) to the Alab 6Similar
Q4 13:34
1ST & 5
OPP 6
0
98.7%
Tank Bigsby run for no gain to the Alab 6Similar
Q4 13:02
2ND & 5
OPP 6
-4
98.8%
Robby Ashford run for a loss of 4 yards to the Alab 10 Robby Ashford fumbled, recovered by Aub Robby AshfordSimilar
Q4 12:23
3RD & 9
OPP 10
0
98.9%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:23
4TH & 9
OPP 10
-5
99.0%
AUBURN Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Alab 15Similar
Q4 12:18
4TH & 14
OPP 15
+32
97.0%
Alex McPherson 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20INT
12 plays · 47 yds · 5:2798% → 99%
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
98.0%
Jase McClellan run for 2 yds to the Alab 28Similar
Q4 11:26
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+18
97.9%
Bryce Young pass complete to Cameron Latu for 18 yds to the Alab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
98.1%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 6 yds to the Aub 48Similar
Q4 10:29
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+6
98.1%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 6 yds to the Aub 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+12
98.2%
Bryce Young pass complete to Robbie Ouzts for 12 yds to the Aub 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
98.2%
Jase McClellan run for 5 yds to the Aub 25Similar
Q4 8:49
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+2
98.2%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 2 yds to the Aub 23Similar
Q4 8:07
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+6
98.2%
Bryce Young pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 6 yds to the Aub 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
98.3%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for no gain to the Aub 17Similar
Q4 7:01
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-10
98.4%
Young, Bryce pass complete to Bond, Isaiah for 3 yards to the AUBURN14, PENALTY ALABAMA holding (Latham, JC) 10 yards to the AUBURN27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:36
2ND & 20
OPP 27
0
98.5%
Bryce Young pass intercepted Owen Pappoe return for no gain to the Aub 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 21FG
13 plays · 60 yds · 4:192% → 3%
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
97.8%
Jarquez Hunter run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 17Similar
Q4 5:52
2ND & 11
OWN 17
+5
98.0%
Jarquez Hunter run for 5 yds to the Aub 22Similar
Q4 4:52
3RD & 6
OWN 22
-2
98.4%
Robby Ashford sacked by Chris Braswell for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 20Similar
Q4 4:27
4TH & 8
OWN 20
+5
98.1%
ALABAMA Penalty, Illegal Participation (5 Yards) to the Aub 25Similar
Q4 4:19
4TH & 3
OWN 25
+31
98.0%
Robby Ashford run for 31 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
97.8%
Jarquez Hunter run for 6 yds to the Alab 38Similar
Q4 3:36
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+13
97.6%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Shedrick Jackson for 13 yds to the Alab 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
97.4%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for 9 yds to the Alab 16Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 1
OPP 16
-6
97.4%
Robby Ashford sacked by Will Anderson Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the Alab 22Similar
Q4 2:12
3RD & 7
OPP 22
0
97.6%
Robby Ashford pass incomplete to Koy MooreSimilar
Q4 2:08
4TH & 7
OPP 22
+39
97.4%
Alex McPherson 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 22TD
4 plays · 27 yds · 0:1299% → 100%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
98.7%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 4 yds to the Aub 23Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+23
99.8%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 23 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 23END OF GAME
7 plays · 10 yds · 1:300% → 0%
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.6%
Robby Ashford run for 1 yd to the Aub 26Similar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+27
99.6%
Jarquez Hunter run for 27 yds to the Alab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
99.6%
Robby Ashford sacked by Will Anderson Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the Aub 48Similar
Q4 0:52
2ND & 15
OWN 48
0
99.6%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:40
3RD & 15
OWN 48
-8
99.7%
Robby Ashford sacked by Henry To'oTo'o and Jamil Burroughs for a loss of 8 yards to the Aub 40Similar
Q4 0:05
4TH & 23
OWN 40
-5
99.7%
AUBURN Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Aub 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:54
Bryce Young pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 27 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)
+3.6
TD · Q2 9:34
Robby Ashford pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 20 yds for a TD, (Alex McPherson KICK)
-2.7
TD · Q2 5:39
Ja'Corey Brooks 32 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Will Reichard Kick)
+2.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com