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MSST

Mississippi State 24 at Ole Miss 22

MISS
2022 · Week 13 · Nov 24, 2022 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:59 · Fraser Masin punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the MisSt 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 161Home team on offense−2.1Garbage-time factor−1.7Score differential−1.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.8Pregame prior+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:55: Jaxson Dart pass complete to JJ Pegues for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK) — MISS win probability +7.9 pts (now 68%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. FG · Q4 13:46: Massimo Biscardi 34 yd FG GOOD — MSST win probability +18.7 pts (now 55%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 7:58: Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 22 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK) — MSST win probability +28.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:25: Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 23 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — MISS win probability +42.1 pts (now 53%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. TD · Q4 1:25: Timeout MISSISSIPPI ST, clock 01:25 — MSST win probability +14.1 pts (now 57%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 10 of 13MSST made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 12:16MISS 4th & 9 at MSST 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.5%
    84% to make
    Punt
    58.0%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:59MISS 4th & 8 at MISS 26, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.3%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:33MSST 4th & 20 at MSST 14, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.5%−1.4
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:33MISS 4th & 7 at MSST 15, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.0%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.3%
    83% to make
    Punt
    53.1%−3.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:09MSST 4th & 23 at MSST 22, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.2%−1.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:04MISS 4th & 7 at MSST 31, down 1
    Close callKicked a field goal · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.6%−<0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    57.0%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:51MSST 4th & 6 at MSST 40, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:05MISS 4th & 8 at MISS 7, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.6%−0.8
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:42MSST 4th & 5 at midfield, down 2
    Close callPunted · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:23MISS 4th & 1 at MISS 21, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.0%−1.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:55MISS 4th & 1 at MSST 1, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    59.3%−2.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    53.2%−8.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:40MSST 4th & 7 at MISS 31, down 2
    Close callWent for it · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.2%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    39.3%
    54% to make
    Punt
    37.7%−1.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:49MISS 4th & 11 at MISS 27, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%−2.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:13MSST 4th & 18 at MSST 48, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%−3.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.8%
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:37MISS 4th & 1 at MISS 13, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsPunted · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.4%−2.4
    average punt
  16. Q3 5:25MISS 4th & 2 at MSST 6, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    62.2%−2.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    50.9%−13.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:46MSST 4th & 3 at MISS 16, down 2
    Close callKicked a field goal · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.0%−0.2
    81% to make
    Punt
    27.3%−12.9
    average punt
  18. Q4 11:59MISS 4th & 26 at MISS 9, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.1%−7.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.3%
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:05MISS 4th & 7 at MISS 48, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.6%−1.7
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:30MISS 4th & 1 at MSST 35, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    8.2%−3.0
    45% to make
    Punt
    5.3%−5.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MSST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 8:17MSST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:55MISS Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:08MSST Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 7:58MSST Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.8%−1.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:25MISS Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    29.4%−3.0
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    32.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1FG
8 plays · 51 yds · 2:3953% → 53%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+28
52.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Malik Heath for 28 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
52.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 8 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+14
53.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 14 yds to the MisSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
53.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 4 yds to the MisSt 11Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 6
OPP 11
0
53.3%
Jaxson Dart run for no gain to the MisSt 11Similar
Q1 12:18
3RD & 6
OPP 11
-3
53.4%
Jonathan Mingo run for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 14Similar
Q1 12:16
4TH & 9
OPP 14
+32
53.4%
Jonathan Cruz 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2TD
11 plays · 61 yds · 3:4447% → 49%
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
53.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 2 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+1
53.3%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the MisSt 42Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+10
53.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 10 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
53.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 6 yds to the Miss 42Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+7
53.3%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 7 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+20
53.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 20 yds to the Miss 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
53.4%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 5 yds to the Miss 10Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 5
OPP 10
0
53.3%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+9
53.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 9 yds to the Miss 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
51.5%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 1 yd for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5752% → 52%
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
52.3%
Zach Evans run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 23Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 11
OWN 23
+3
52.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 3 yds to the Miss 26Similar
Q1 7:12
3RD & 8
OWN 26
0
51.7%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Jonathan MingoSimilar
Q1 6:59
4TH & 8
OWN 26
0
51.5%
Fraser Masin punt for 50 yds, downed at the MisSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 1:1048% → 47%
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
52.2%
Dillon Johnson run for 2 yds to the MisSt 26Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 8
OWN 26
0
52.1%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 8
OWN 26
-12
52.4%
Will Rogers sacked by Tavius Robinson for a loss of 12 yards to the MisSt 14Similar
Q1 5:33
4TH & 20
OWN 14
-3
52.9%
George Georgopoulos punt for 56 yds , Jordan Watkins returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5FG
12 plays · 58 yds · 3:4552% → 54%
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
52.0%
Quinshon Judkins run for 10 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
52.2%
Quinshon Judkins run for 8 yds to the Miss 45Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+2
53.0%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
53.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 7
50
+5
53.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Malik Heath for 5 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+7
53.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 7 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
53.3%
Quinshon Judkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 40Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 12
OPP 40
+22
53.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 22 yds to the MisSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
53.7%
Quinshon Judkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 19Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 11
OPP 19
+5
53.7%
Quinshon Judkins run for 5 yds to the MisSt 14Similar
Q1 1:45
3RD & 6
OPP 14
-1
53.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 15Similar
Q1 1:33
4TH & 7
OPP 15
+33
53.7%
Jonathan Cruz 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · -13 yds · 1:5148% → 46%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
52.3%
Dillon Johnson run for 3 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 7
OWN 38
-22
51.7%
Will Rogers sacked by Khari Coleman for a loss of 22 yards to the MisSt 16 Will Rogers fumbled, recovered by MisStSimilar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 29
OWN 16
-5
53.1%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 11Similar
Q2 14:23
3RD & 34
OWN 11
+11
53.1%
Dillon Johnson run for 11 yds to the MisSt 22Similar
Q2 14:09
4TH & 23
OWN 22
+2
53.7%
Archer Trafford punt for 39 yds , Jordan Watkins returns for 2 yds to the Miss 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7FG
6 plays · 28 yds · 1:5655% → 57%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
54.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 8 yds to the Miss 49Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+17
54.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Malik Heath for 17 yds to the MisSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
55.8%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Jonathan MingoSimilar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
55.8%
Jaxson Dart run for no gain to the MisSt 34Similar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+3
54.8%
Zach Evans run for 3 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q2 12:04
4TH & 7
OPP 31
+49
56.5%
Jonathan Cruz 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:5444% → 43%
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
56.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 5 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
55.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 6 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
55.6%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+1
54.9%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the MisSt 40Similar
Q2 10:01
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
55.5%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:51
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
56.7%
George Georgopoulos punt for 55 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:3557% → 55%
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
56.5%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the Miss 7Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 8
OWN 7
0
56.4%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:15
3RD & 8
OWN 7
0
55.5%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:05
4TH & 8
OWN 7
+7
55.0%
Fraser Masin punt for 45 yds , Zavion Thomas returns for 7 yds to the MisSt 14 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the MisSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:2345% → 44%
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
54.6%
OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 5
50
0
53.8%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:58
2ND & 5
50
0
54.1%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 5
50
0
54.4%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:42
4TH & 5
50
0
55.9%
George Georgopoulos punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jordan Watkins at the Miss 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0757% → 56%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
56.8%
Jaxson Dart run for 7 yds to the Miss 19Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 3
OWN 19
-2
57.9%
Zach Evans run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 17Similar
Q2 7:40
3RD & 5
OWN 17
+4
56.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 4 yds to the Miss 21Similar
Q2 7:23
4TH & 1
OWN 21
0
55.8%
Fraser Masin punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the MisSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12INT
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:3445% → 46%
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
54.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Justin Robinson for 11 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
54.0%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Justin RobinsonSimilar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-1
54.3%
Will Rogers pass intercepted Otis Reese return for 1 yd to the Miss 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13TD
14 plays · 64 yds · 4:1559% → 68%
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
58.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 4 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+3
59.8%
Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+4
59.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Quinshon Judkins for 4 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
60.4%
Jaxson Dart run for 9 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+5
60.9%
Quinshon Judkins run for 5 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+13
61.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 13 yds to the MisSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
61.7%
Jaxson Dart run for 3 yds to the MisSt 23Similar
Q2 4:05
2ND & 7
OPP 23
0
61.8%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:55
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+17
60.9%
Quinshon Judkins run for 17 yds to the MisSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
61.9%
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the MisSt 5Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
62.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the MisSt 4Similar
Q2 2:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
61.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 3 yds to the MisSt 1Similar
Q2 1:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
67.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to JJ Pegues for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 1:4032% → 40%
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
68.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 6 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+8
67.1%
Will Rogers run for 8 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
66.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 8 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+6
65.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 6 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
65.7%
Dillon Johnson run for no gain to the Miss 47Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+15
69.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 15 yds to the Miss 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
66.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 5 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+2
67.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 2 yds to the Miss 25Similar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+6
67.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 6 yds to the Miss 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
66.8%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
67.1%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:08
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+19
59.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 19 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
60.5%
Zach Evans run for 4 yds to the Miss 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16DOWNS
11 plays · 47 yds · 3:0542% → 42%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
58.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 8 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
56.8%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the MisSt 34Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+32
57.8%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 32 yds to the Miss 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-10
54.2%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Miss 44Similar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 20
OPP 44
+18
56.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 18 yds to the Miss 26Similar
Q3 12:14
2ND & 2
OPP 26
-5
53.9%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Miss 31Similar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 7
OPP 31
0
54.0%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Justin RobinsonSimilar
Q3 11:48
3RD & 7
OPP 31
0
55.8%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Dillon JohnsonSimilar
Q3 11:40
4TH & 7
OPP 31
+3
58.2%
Will Rogers run for 3 yds to the Miss 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:4161% → 59%
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-7
61.2%
Jaxson Dart sacked by Tyrus Wheat for a loss of 7 yards to the Miss 21Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 17
OWN 21
+6
60.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 6 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q3 11:01
3RD & 11
OWN 27
0
59.5%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Jonathan MingoSimilar
Q3 10:49
4TH & 11
OWN 27
+27
58.8%
Fraser Masin punt for 46 yds , Zavion Thomas returns for 27 yds to the Miss 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:2944% → 39%
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
55.9%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Austin WilliamsSimilar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+8
55.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 8 yds to the Miss 38Similar
Q3 9:40
3RD & 4
OPP 38
-14
56.3%
Will Rogers sacked by KD Hill for a loss of 14 yards to the MisSt 48Similar
Q3 9:13
4TH & 18
OWN 48
0
60.8%
George Georgopoulos punt for 48 yds, downed at the Miss 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2361% → 59%
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-1
61.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 3Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 11
OWN 3
+10
60.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Malik Heath for 10 yds to the Miss 13Similar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 1
OWN 13
-4
60.1%
Zach Evans run for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 9Similar
Q3 7:44
4TH & 5
OWN 9
+4
59.2%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Running Into Kicker (4 Yards) to the Miss 13Similar
Q3 7:37
4TH & 1
OWN 13
0
59.4%
Fraser Masin punt for 45 yds, downed at the MisSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20FUMBLE
1 play · -6 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-6
57.1%
Will Rogers sacked by Tavius Robinson for a loss of 6 yards to the MisSt 36 Will Rogers fumbled, recovered by Miss Cedric Johnson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 21DOWNS
6 plays · 30 yds · 2:0366% → 64%
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
65.6%
Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+19
67.2%
Quinshon Judkins run for 4 yds to the MisSt 29 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the MisSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
67.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 15Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+10
67.3%
Quinshon Judkins run for 10 yds to the MisSt 5Similar
Q3 5:45
3RD & 1
OPP 5
-1
66.0%
Quinshon Judkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 6Similar
Q3 5:25
4TH & 2
OPP 6
0
64.4%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 22FG
16 plays · 78 yds · 6:1439% → 55%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
61.0%
Jo'quavious Marks run for no gain to the MisSt 6Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+7
61.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 7 yds to the MisSt 13Similar
Q3 4:15
3RD & 3
OWN 13
+7
61.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 7 yds to the MisSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
59.9%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the MisSt 23Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+6
59.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 6 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q3 2:55
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+5
59.8%
OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the MisSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
59.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 6 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q3 1:55
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+16
56.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 16 yds to the Miss 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
55.6%
Dillon Johnson run for 9 yds to the Miss 35Similar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+12
54.4%
Dillon Johnson run for 12 yds to the Miss 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
54.5%
Dillon Johnson run for 4 yds to the Miss 19Similar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 6
OPP 19
-3
54.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 22Similar
Q4 14:11
3RD & 9
OPP 22
+6
58.5%
Will Rogers run for 6 yds to the Miss 16Similar
Q4 13:46
4TH & 3
OPP 16
+34
44.9%
Massimo Biscardi 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · -16 yds · 1:3152% → 48%
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
52.2%
Quinshon Judkins pass complete to Dayton Wade for 7 yds to the Miss 32Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-5
55.6%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Miss 27Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-14
52.9%
Jaxson Dart sacked by Nathaniel Watson for a loss of 14 yards to the Miss 13Similar
Q4 12:03
3RD & 22
OWN 13
-4
50.1%
Jaxson Dart run for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 9Similar
Q4 11:59
4TH & 26
OWN 9
0
48.2%
Fraser Masin punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the MisSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 24TD
8 plays · 55 yds · 3:3257% → 94%
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
43.0%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the MisSt 48Similar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+9
42.0%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 9 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
39.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 8 yds to the Miss 35Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+1
37.9%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the Miss 34Similar
Q4 9:46
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+9
40.1%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 9 yds to the Miss 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
34.8%
Dillon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Miss 22Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 7
OPP 22
0
34.4%
Dillon Johnson run for no gain to the Miss 22Similar
Q4 7:58
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+22
6.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 22 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 25FUMBLE
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:3021% → 21%
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
21.2%
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the Miss 26Similar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
19.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 10 yds to the Miss 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-6
20.6%
Jonathan Mingo run for a loss of 6 yards to the Miss 30 Jonathan Mingo fumbled, recovered by MisSt Jett JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 26FUMBLE
4 plays · 29 yds · 1:5795% → 96%
Q4 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
4.9%
Dillon Johnson run for 5 yds to the Miss 25Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+24
3.9%
Dillon Johnson run for 24 yds to the Miss 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
4.0%
Dillon Johnson run for no gain to the Miss 1Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 0
OPP 1
0
3.6%
Will Rogers run for no gain to the Miss 1 Will Rogers fumbled, forced by Troy Brown, recovered by Miss Tavius RobinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 27TD
18 plays · 99 yds · 3:2014% → 53%
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
14.2%
Quinshon Judkins run for no gain to the Miss 1Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+8
13.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 8 yds to the Miss 9Similar
Q4 3:55
3RD & 2
OWN 9
+5
13.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 5 yds to the Miss 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
13.4%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+11
11.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 11 yds to the Miss 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
12.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Malik Heath for 20 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
14.8%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Miss 40Similar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 15
OWN 40
+7
11.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for 7 yds to the Miss 47Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+5
10.9%
Quinshon Judkins run for 5 yds to the MisSt 48Similar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 3
OPP 48
-4
11.3%
Jaxson Dart run for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 48Similar
Q4 2:05
4TH & 7
OWN 48
+8
8.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 8 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
10.5%
Jaxson Dart run for 6 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 4
OPP 38
-1
11.7%
Quinshon Judkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 39Similar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+4
10.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 4 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
Q4 1:30
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+12
10.3%
Quinshon Judkins run for 12 yds to the MisSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
52.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 23 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 28END OF GAME
5 plays · -15 yds · 1:2284% → 93%
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
16.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Miss 47Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 15
OPP 47
-5
11.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 48Similar
Q4 0:01
3RD & 20
OWN 48
-5
7.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:25
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 23 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+42.1
TD · Q4 7:58
Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 22 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK)
-28.2
FG · Q4 13:46
Massimo Biscardi 34 yd FG GOOD
-18.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com