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MISS

Ole Miss 27 at Arkansas 42

ARK
2022 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2022 · Razorback Stadium
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Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadMISS aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreMISS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:54 · Fraser Masin punt for 37 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout marginPregame prior
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 17Home team on offense−0.2Score differential−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Blowout margin+0.1Pregame prior+4.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 8:28: KJ Jefferson pass complete to Matt Landers for 8 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) — ARK win probability +2.7 pts (now 59%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 3:44: KJ Jefferson pass complete to Matt Landers for 23 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) — ARK win probability +6.9 pts (now 70%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 14:03: KJ Jefferson pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 20 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) — ARK win probability +9.1 pts (now 78%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 2:20: Raheim Sanders run for 20 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) — ARK win probability +5.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:05: Raheim Sanders run for 8 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) — ARK win probability +4.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 4 of 6MISS made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 12:29ARK 4th & 11 at MISS 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.4%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    49.4%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    49.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:54MISS 4th & 5 at MISS 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.1%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:35MISS 4th & 19 at ARK 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%−0.4
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    45.4%−0.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    45.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:00MISS 4th & 15 at ARK 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.7%−1.3
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.0%
    62% to make
    Punt
    35.5%−3.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:11MISS 4th & 13 at ARK 21, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%−2.3
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.3%
    74% to make
    Punt
    20.6%−7.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:55ARK 4th & 6 at ARK 41, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.5%−1.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:38MISS 4th & 9 at ARK 14, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.8%
    84% to make
    Punt
    16.8%−6.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:45ARK 4th & 4 at MISS 29, up 36
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.5%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    98.2%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:35MISS 4th & 5 at ARK 5, down 36
    Close callWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%
    92% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:44ARK 4th & 6 at MISS 40, up 36
    Close callPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    99.5%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:52ARK 4th & 10 at midfield, up 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:16MISS 4th & 1 at ARK 23, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.9%−<0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−1.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:29ARK 4th & 9 at ARK 46, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 6 of 6MISS made the numbers' call on 0 of 3
  1. Q1 8:28ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:44ARK Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:03ARK Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:20ARK Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:05ARK Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 14:16ARK Touchdown, up 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:02MISS Touchdown, down 30 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    0.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    0.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:02MISS Touchdown, down 24 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    1.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    1.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:55MISS Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1FUMBLE
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:2645% → 45%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
54.8%
DART, Jaxson pass to the right complete for 11 yards to MINGO, Jonathan caught at the MIS32 and advanced to the MIS36 (BLAIR, Simeon), out of bounds. PENALTY MIS Pass Interference on HEATH, Malik enforced half the distance from the goal, 12 yards to the MIS13 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 22
OWN 13
-2
54.8%
Dayton Wade run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 11Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 24
OWN 11
+25
54.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Quinshon Judkins for 25 yds to the Miss 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
54.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 6 yds to the Miss 42Similar
Q1 13:34
2ND & 4
OWN 42
-4
54.8%
Jaxson Dart run for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 38 Jaxson Dart fumbled, recovered by Ark Drew SandersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:0555% → 55%
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
55.1%
Raheim Sanders run for 1 yd to the Miss 37Similar
Q1 13:34
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+3
55.1%
KJ Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q1 13:34
3RD & 6
OPP 34
0
55.1%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:34
4TH & 6
OPP 34
-5
55.0%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Miss 39Similar
Q1 12:29
4TH & 11
OPP 39
0
55.0%
Max Fletcher punt for 28 yds, downed at the Miss 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:3545% → 45%
Q1 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+8
55.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Malik Heath for 8 yds to the Miss 19Similar
Q1 12:29
2ND & 2
OWN 19
+8
54.9%
Zach Evans run for 8 yds to the Miss 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
54.9%
Zach Evans run for 4 yds to the Miss 31Similar
Q1 12:29
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+1
54.9%
Jaxson Dart run for 1 yd to the Miss 32Similar
Q1 12:29
3RD & 5
OWN 32
0
55.0%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:54
4TH & 5
OWN 32
0
55.3%
Fraser Masin punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 4TD
7 plays · 69 yds · 2:2655% → 59%
Q1 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
55.2%
Raheim Sanders run for 2 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 8
OWN 33
-1
55.1%
Raheim Sanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 32Similar
Q1 10:54
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+20
54.9%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trey Knox for 20 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
55.6%
AJ Green run for 1 yd to the Miss 47Similar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+16
55.6%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trey Knox for 16 yds to the Miss 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+23
55.7%
KJ Jefferson run for 23 yds to the Miss 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
58.5%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Matt Landers for 8 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5PUNT
12 plays · 32 yds · 2:5342% → 41%
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
57.8%
Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+25
57.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Malik Heath for 25 yds to the Ark 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
57.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for no gain to the Ark 47Similar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+6
57.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 6 yds to the Ark 41Similar
Q1 8:28
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+7
57.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for 7 yds to the Ark 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
56.7%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-1
56.7%
Jaxson Dart run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 35Similar
Q1 8:28
3RD & 11
OPP 35
+2
57.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Quinshon Judkins for 2 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q1 8:28
4TH & 9
OPP 33
-10
57.7%
DART, Jaxson pass up the middle complete for 33 yards to WADE, Dayton caught at the ARK17 and advanced to the ARK0, TOUCHDOWN MIS, score nullified by penalty. PENALTY MIS Holding on PETTUS, Micah enforced 10 yards from the ARK33 to the ARK43 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:35
4TH & 19
OPP 43
0
59.5%
Fraser Masin punt for 31 yds, downed at the Ark 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 6TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 1:5162% → 70%
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
62.3%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+1
62.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Raheim Sanders for 1 yd to the Ark 28Similar
Q1 5:35
3RD & 9
OWN 28
+11
61.7%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Raheim Sanders for 11 yds to the Ark 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
62.7%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+4
62.6%
Raheim Sanders run for 4 yds to the Ark 43Similar
Q1 5:35
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+12
62.4%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 12 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+22
63.1%
Raheim Sanders run for 22 yds to the Miss 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
70.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Matt Landers for 23 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7FG
5 plays · 48 yds · 1:4436% → 38%
Q1 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+53
63.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Malik Heath for 53 yds to the Ark 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-1
62.3%
Zach Evans run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 23Similar
Q1 3:44
2ND & 11
OPP 23
-4
62.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 27Similar
Q1 3:44
3RD & 15
OPP 27
0
63.4%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:00
4TH & 15
OPP 27
+45
62.1%
Jonathan Cruz 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 8TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:5767% → 78%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
66.7%
Raheim Sanders run for 2 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+28
66.6%
Raheim Sanders run for 28 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
67.6%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Raheim Sanders for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 46Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+3
69.1%
Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+20
68.6%
KJ Jefferson run for 20 yds to the Miss 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
69.3%
KJ Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Miss 20Similar
Q2 14:03
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+20
78.4%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 20 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9MISSED FG
11 plays · 54 yds · 2:5228% → 26%
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.8%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:03
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
72.0%
Jaxson Dart run for no gain to the Miss 25Similar
Q2 14:03
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+17
72.1%
Jaxson Dart run for 17 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
71.2%
Quinshon Judkins run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:03
2ND & 2
50
+32
70.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for 32 yds to the Ark 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
69.5%
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the Ark 17Similar
Q2 14:03
2ND & 9
OPP 17
-5
69.5%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 22Similar
Q2 14:03
2ND & 14
OPP 22
0
70.5%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:03
3RD & 14
OPP 22
+1
71.1%
Jaxson Dart run for 1 yd to the Ark 21Similar
Q2 11:11
4TH & 13
OPP 21
+39
74.1%
Jonathan Cruz 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:1682% → 84%
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+16
82.4%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 16 yds to the Ark 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
82.7%
KJ Jefferson run for no gain to the Ark 37Similar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+2
82.6%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 2 yds to the Ark 39Similar
Q2 11:11
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+2
82.4%
KJ Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Ark 41Similar
Q2 8:55
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
84.1%
Reid Bauer punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Jordan Watkins at the Miss 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11FG
11 plays · 56 yds · 4:1723% → 24%
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
77.2%
Zach Evans run for 4 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+38
77.1%
Zach Evans run for 38 yds to the Ark 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
75.1%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+9
75.4%
Jaxson Dart run for 9 yds to the Ark 19Similar
Q2 8:55
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+4
75.9%
Quinshon Judkins run for 4 yds to the Ark 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
75.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the Ark 12Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 7
OPP 12
-5
75.1%
JUDKINS, Quinshon rush up the middle for a gain of 5 yards to the ARK7 (BRINI, Latavious;WILLIAMS, Zach). PENALTY Before the snap, MIS Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the ARK12 to the ARK17. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 12
OPP 17
+2
75.4%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the Ark 15Similar
Q2 8:55
3RD & 10
OPP 15
-10
75.9%
OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Ark 25Similar
Q2 8:55
3RD & 20
OPP 25
+11
76.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 11 yds to the Ark 14Similar
Q2 4:38
4TH & 9
OPP 14
+32
76.4%
Jonathan Cruz 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:1884% → 92%
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
83.9%
Raheim Sanders run for 2 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q2 4:38
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
83.8%
Raheim Sanders run for 7 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q2 4:38
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
83.3%
Raheim Sanders run for 1 yd to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
85.4%
Raheim Sanders run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
50
-10
86.2%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jadon Haselwood) to the Miss 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
86.3%
Raheim Sanders run for 8 yds to the Miss 20Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 2
OPP 20
+20
92.1%
Raheim Sanders run for 20 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13INT
4 plays · 32 yds · 1:1311% → 11%
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
89.4%
Quinshon Judkins run for 4 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
89.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 5 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q2 2:20
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+23
89.2%
Quinshon Judkins run for 23 yds to the Ark 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
88.8%
Jaxson Dart pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 14TD
9 plays · 48 yds · 1:0293% → 97%
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
92.6%
Raheim Sanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 49Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+18
92.9%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 18 yds to the Miss 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
93.1%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+12
92.5%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Raheim Sanders for 12 yds to the Miss 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
92.3%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Raheim Sanders for 6 yds to the Miss 13Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+5
92.4%
JEFFERSON, KJ pass to the right incomplete intended for KNOX, Trey thrown to the MIS9. PENALTY MIS Offsides on COLEMAN, Khari enforced 5 yards from the MIS13 to the MIS8 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
97.3%
Raheim Sanders run for 8 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · 11 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
97.3%
Zach Evans run for 11 yds to the Miss 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 16TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:4497% → 98%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
97.3%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Matt Landers for 7 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+68
98.0%
Raheim Sanders run for 68 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 17FUMBLE
2 plays · 21 yds · 0:332% → 2%
Q3 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Malik Heath for 5 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q3 13:43
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+16
98.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for 16 yds to the Miss 46 Quinshon Judkins fumbled, recovered by Ark Dwight McGlothernSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18MISSED FG
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:5898% → 99%
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
98.2%
AJ Green run for 11 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
98.2%
AJ Green run for 1 yd to the Miss 34Similar
Q3 13:43
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+7
98.2%
KJ Jefferson run for 7 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q3 13:43
3RD & 2
OPP 27
-2
98.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trey Knox for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 29Similar
Q3 10:45
4TH & 4
OPP 29
+47
98.7%
Cam Little 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 19DOWNS
16 plays · 66 yds · 5:101% → 1%
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
98.7%
Jaxson Dart sacked by Zach Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 28Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 11
OWN 28
+14
98.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Malik Heath for 14 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
98.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 12 yds to the Ark 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
98.6%
Zach Evans run for 1 yd to the Ark 45Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+10
98.6%
Zach Evans run for 10 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
98.5%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+2
98.5%
Zach Evans run for 2 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q3 10:45
3RD & 8
OPP 33
0
98.6%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:45
4TH & 8
OPP 33
-10
97.9%
OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Malik Heath) to the Ark 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
98.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 5 yds to the Ark 15Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+5
98.2%
Zach Evans run for 5 yds to the Ark 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
98.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 5 yds to the Ark 5Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
98.2%
Zach Evans run for 1 yd to the Ark 4Similar
Q3 10:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
98.3%
Jaxson Dart sacked by Quincey McAdoo for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 5Similar
Q3 5:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.2%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 20PUNT
12 plays · 55 yds · 3:5199% → 100%
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+13
99.4%
Rashod Dubinion run for 13 yds to the Ark 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
99.4%
Rashod Dubinion run for 7 yds to the Ark 25Similar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+2
99.4%
Rashod Dubinion run for 2 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q3 5:35
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+14
99.4%
QB Keeper JEFFERSON, KJ rush to the right for no gain to the ARK27 (REESE, Otis;JOHNSON, Tysheem). PENALTY MIS Personal Foul on REESE, Otis enforced 14 yards from the ARK27 to the ARK41 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
99.4%
JEFFERSON, KJ pass to the left incomplete intended for LANDERS, Matt thrown to the MIS20. PENALTY MIS Pass Interference on IGBINOSUN, Davison enforced 15 yards to the MIS44 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
99.4%
Rashod Dubinion run for 9 yds to the Miss 35Similar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 1
OPP 35
-5
99.4%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Miss 40Similar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 6
OPP 40
0
99.4%
AJ Green run for no gain to the Miss 40Similar
Q3 1:53
3RD & 6
OPP 40
0
99.6%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:44
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
99.6%
Max Fletcher punt for 36 yds, downed at the Miss 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 21TD
9 plays · 96 yds · 2:420% → 1%
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+60
99.7%
Quinshon Judkins run for 60 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
99.7%
Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q3 1:44
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+9
99.7%
Zach Evans run for 9 yds to the Ark 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
99.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Malik Heath for 5 yds to the Ark 19Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+4
99.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 4 yds to the Ark 15Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+3
99.7%
Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the Ark 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
99.7%
Quinshon Judkins run for 8 yds to the Ark 4Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 4
+3
99.7%
Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the Ark 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.4%
Quinshon Judkins 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 4:10100% → 100%
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
99.8%
Raheim Sanders run for 9 yds to the Ark 44Similar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+6
99.8%
Rashod Dubinion run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
50
+3
99.8%
Rashod Dubinion run for 3 yds to the Miss 47Similar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+3
99.8%
AJ Green run for 3 yds to the Miss 44Similar
Q4 14:02
3RD & 4
OPP 44
-5
99.8%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Miss 49Similar
Q4 14:02
3RD & 9
OPP 49
-1
99.8%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:52
4TH & 10
50
0
99.9%
Max Fletcher punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jordan Watkins at the Miss 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 23TD
5 plays · 88 yds · 1:500% → 1%
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+21
99.9%
Jaxson Dart run for 21 yds to the Miss 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
99.9%
Jaxson Dart run for 2 yds to the Miss 35Similar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+5
99.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Malik Heath for 5 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q4 9:52
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+12
99.9%
Zach Evans run for 12 yds to the Ark 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
99.0%
Zach Evans run for 48 yds for a TD, (Jaxson Dart pass to Jonathan Mingo for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · -10 yds · 1:46100% → 100%
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
99.8%
Raheim Sanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 40Similar
Q4 7:09
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+2
99.9%
Raheim Sanders run for 2 yds to the Miss 38Similar
Q4 7:09
3RD & 9
OPP 38
-11
99.9%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Ashanti Cistrunk for a loss of 11 yards to the Miss 49Similar
Q4 6:16
4TH & 20
OPP 49
0
99.8%
Max Fletcher punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jordan Watkins at the Miss 14Similar
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+11
99.8%
DART, Jaxson pass to the right incomplete intended for HEATH, Malik thrown to the MIS24. PENALTY ARK Pass Interference on MCGLOTHERN, Dwight enforced at the spot of the foul for 11 yards to the MIS25 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.8%
DART, Jaxson pass up the middle incomplete intended for HEATH, Malik thrown to the ARK28. PENALTY ARK Holding enforced 10 yards from the MIS25 to the MIS35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 25TD
14 plays · 86 yds · 3:210% → 1%
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
99.8%
Quinshon Judkins run for 8 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q4 6:16
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+13
99.7%
Quinshon Judkins run for 13 yds to the Ark 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
99.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Malik Heath for 12 yds to the Ark 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
99.7%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:16
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+9
99.7%
Quinshon Judkins run for 9 yds to the Ark 23Similar
Q4 6:16
3RD & 1
OPP 23
0
99.7%
Quinshon Judkins run for no gain to the Ark 23Similar
Q4 6:16
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+1
99.7%
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the Ark 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-10
99.7%
OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Ark 30Similar
Q4 6:16
1ST & 18
OPP 30
+2
99.7%
Zach Evans run for 2 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q4 6:16
2ND & 16
OPP 28
0
99.7%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:16
3RD & 16
OPP 28
0
99.7%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:59
4TH & 16
OPP 28
0
99.9%
DART, Jaxson pass to the left incomplete intended for HEATH, Malik thrown to the ARK0, clock 02:59. PENALTY ARK Pass Interference on SLUSHER, Myles enforced half the distance from the goal, 15 yards to the ARK13 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
98.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Malik Heath for 13 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 2:25100% → 100%
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
99.7%
Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds to the Ark 48Similar
Q4 2:54
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+1
99.7%
Raheim Sanders run for 1 yd to the Ark 49Similar
Q4 0:36
3RD & 6
OWN 49
-3
99.5%
Raheim Sanders run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 46Similar
Q4 0:29
4TH & 9
OWN 46
0
99.5%
Reid Bauer punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jordan Watkins at the Miss 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 27END OF GAME
4 plays · 53 yds · 0:291% → 1%
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
99.4%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:29
2ND & 10
OWN 11
0
99.4%
OLE MISS Penalty, Illegal Formation (Tysheem Johnson) declinedSimilar
Q4 0:29
3RD & 10
OWN 11
+39
99.4%
Zach Evans run for 39 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
50
+14
99.4%
Zach Evans run for 14 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 14:03
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 20 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)
+9.1
TD · Q1 3:44
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Matt Landers for 23 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)
+6.9
TD · Q2 2:20
Raheim Sanders run for 20 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)
+5.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com