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MIZ

Missouri 24 at Tennessee 66

TENN
2022 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2022 · Neyland Stadium
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Win probability · TENN
modelTENN aheadMIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playTENN scoreMIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:10 · Jack Stonehouse punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Dee Williams at the Tenn 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+41.5+20.80−20.8−41.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 178Pregame prior+5.5Home team on offense+35.8Score differential+30.9Garbage-time factor+10.8Blowout margin+16.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:48: Brady Cook pass complete to Tauskie Dove for 43 yds for a TD, (Harrison Mevis KICK) — MIZ win probability +3.6 pts (now 14%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:06: Hendon Hooker run for 14 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — TENN win probability +3.3 pts (now 92%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:55: Brady Cook pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 38 yds for a TD, (Harrison Mevis KICK) — MIZ win probability +9.7 pts (now 22%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q3 8:30: Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jalin Hyatt for 68 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — TENN win probability +8.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:34: Hendon Hooker pass complete to Princeton Fant for 2 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — TENN win probability +5.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TENN made the numbers' call on 3 of 5MIZ made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 13:18MIZ 4th & 4 at MIZ 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:39MIZ 4th & 3 at MIZ 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:34TENN 4th & 4 at MIZ 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    88.5%−<0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    88.0%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:53TENN 4th & 4 at MIZ 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    84.8%−0.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    84.6%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:40MIZ 4th & 6 at MIZ 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:48MIZ 4th & 1 at TENN 43, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    9.3%−1.2
    28% to make
    Punt
    9.5%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:35MIZ 4th & 1 at MIZ 41, down 14
    Close callPunted · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.6%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:34TENN 4th & 5 at MIZ 37, up 14
    Close callWent for it · 90.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.9%−0.1
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    91.0%
    40% to make
    Punt
    90.4%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:38TENN 4th & 12 at TENN 48, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.9%−0.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:15MIZ 4th & 6 at MIZ 31, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%−0.6
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:39MIZ 4th & 5 at MIZ 30, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.5%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:01MIZ 4th & 2 at MIZ 33, down 25
    Close callPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:14TENN 4th & 1 at TENN 26, up 25
    Close callPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:51MIZ 4th & 1 at MIZ 41, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.3%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:10MIZ 4th & 14 at MIZ 21, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:06MIZ 4th & 7 at MIZ 45, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TENN made the numbers' call on 8 of 9MIZ made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 11:05TENN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:56MIZ Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:41TENN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:24TENN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:48MIZ Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 4:06TENN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:55MIZ Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 8:30TENN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 4:34TENN Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 1:19TENN Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 5:43TENN Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 0:36TENN Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIZDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:229% → 9%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
91.0%
Brady Cook pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 4 yds to the Misso 30Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+2
90.9%
Cody Schrader run for 2 yds to the Misso 32Similar
Q1 13:34
3RD & 4
OWN 32
0
90.7%
Brady Cook pass incomplete to Dominic LovettSimilar
Q1 13:18
4TH & 4
OWN 32
0
90.6%
Jack Stonehouse punt for 50 yds , Dee Williams returns for no gain to the Tenn 32 TENNESSEE Penalty, Illegal Block (9 Yards) to the Tenn 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 2TD
8 plays · 91 yds · 2:0591% → 91%
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+22
90.6%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jacob Warren for 22 yds to the Tenn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
90.5%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Ramel KeytonSimilar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-1
90.4%
Jabari Small run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 30Similar
Q1 12:15
3RD & 11
OWN 30
+38
90.3%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Bru McCoy for 38 yds to the Misso 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
90.4%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Jalin HyattSimilar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+17
90.4%
Hendon Hooker run for 17 yds to the Misso 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
90.3%
MISSOURI Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Misso 10Similar
Q1 11:05
1ST & 5
OPP 10
+10
90.7%
Jabari Small run for 10 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2010% → 10%
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
90.5%
Brady Cook pass incomplete to Dominic LovettSimilar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+6
90.5%
Elijah Young run for 6 yds to the Misso 30Similar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+1
90.4%
Brady Cook run for 1 yd to the Misso 31Similar
Q1 9:39
4TH & 3
OWN 31
0
90.3%
Jack Stonehouse punt for 41 yds, downed at the Tenn 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 4DOWNS
9 plays · 40 yds · 2:5790% → 90%
Q1 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
90.4%
Jabari Small run for 3 yds to the Tenn 31Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+24
90.3%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jalin Hyatt for 24 yds to the Misso 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
90.4%
Jabari Small run for 2 yds to the Misso 43Similar
Q1 8:37
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+7
90.4%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Bru McCoy for 7 yds to the Misso 36Similar
Q1 8:11
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+3
90.3%
Jabari Small run for 3 yds to the Misso 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
90.4%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Ramel KeytonSimilar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+1
90.3%
Jaylen Wright run for 1 yd to the Misso 32Similar
Q1 7:05
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+5
90.1%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Bru McCoy for 5 yds to the Misso 27Similar
Q1 6:34
4TH & 4
OPP 27
-5
90.0%
Hendon Hooker sacked by DJ Coleman for a loss of 5 yards to the Misso 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 5TD
10 plays · 68 yds · 4:3210% → 14%
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
89.7%
Brady Cook run for 11 yds to the Misso 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+20
89.6%
Brady Cook run for 20 yds to the Tenn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
89.3%
Elijah Young run for 7 yds to the Tenn 30Similar
Q1 4:59
2ND & 3
OPP 30
-1
88.9%
Brady Cook pass complete to Elijah Young for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 31Similar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+14
89.0%
Brady Cook pass complete to Barrett Banister for 14 yds to the Tenn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-2
88.6%
Cody Schrader run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 19Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 12
OPP 19
+11
88.6%
Brady Cook pass complete to Elijah Young for 11 yds to the Tenn 8Similar
Q1 2:35
3RD & 1
OPP 8
0
88.4%
Brady Cook run for no gain to the Tenn 8Similar
Q1 2:02
4TH & 1
OPP 8
+4
88.6%
TENNESSEE Penalty, Defensive Offside (4 Yards) to the Tenn 4Similar
Q1 1:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
86.4%
Luther Burden III 4 Yd Run (Harrison Mevis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 6TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:0487% → 89%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
87.0%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Bru McCoy for 15 yds to the Tenn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
87.3%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Ramel KeytonSimilar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+3
87.1%
Jaylen Wright run for 3 yds to the Tenn 43Similar
Q1 0:59
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+18
86.8%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jaylen Wright for 3 yds to the Misso 46 for a 1ST down MISSOURI Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the Misso 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
87.3%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jalin Hyatt for 4 yds to the Misso 35Similar
Q1 0:27
2ND & 6
OPP 35
0
87.4%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Bru McCoySimilar
Q1 0:15
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+2
87.1%
Jaylen Wright run for 2 yds to the Misso 33Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 4
OPP 33
+30
86.5%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jalin Hyatt for 30 yds to the Misso 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
89.3%
Jaylen Wright run for 3 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:5612% → 12%
Q2 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
88.5%
Luther Burden III run for 7 yds to the Misso 32Similar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-4
87.9%
Brady Cook pass complete to Dominic Lovett for a loss of 4 yards to the Misso 28Similar
Q2 13:26
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+6
88.5%
Brady Cook pass complete to Tauskie Dove for 6 yds to the Misso 34Similar
Q2 12:48
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
88.2%
MISSOURI Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Misso 29Similar
Q2 12:40
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
88.5%
Jack Stonehouse punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Dee Williams at the Tenn 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 8TD
6 plays · 72 yds · 2:1288% → 92%
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
88.4%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jalin Hyatt for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 27Similar
Q2 11:59
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+1
88.2%
Jabari Small run for 1 yd to the Tenn 28Similar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+14
87.8%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Ramel Keyton for 14 yds to the Tenn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+22
88.6%
Hendon Hooker run for 7 yds to the Misso 49 for a 1ST down MISSOURI Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (15 Yards) to the Misso 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+17
88.7%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Bru McCoy for 17 yds to the Misso 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
91.9%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Princeton Fant for 19 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 9TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:369% → 14%
Q2 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
90.6%
MISSOURI Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Misso 20Similar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+3
90.6%
Brady Cook run for 3 yds to the Misso 23Similar
Q2 9:43
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+12
90.7%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 12 yds to the Misso 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
90.6%
Brady Cook pass incomplete to Cody SchraderSimilar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+8
90.6%
Elijah Young run for 8 yds to the Misso 43Similar
Q2 8:21
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+5
90.2%
Nathaniel Peat run for 5 yds to the Misso 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
90.3%
Brady Cook run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 47Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+9
90.5%
Brady Cook pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 9 yds to the Tenn 44Similar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+1
90.1%
Nathaniel Peat run for 1 yd to the Tenn 43Similar
Q2 5:48
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+43
86.5%
Brady Cook pass complete to Tauskie Dove for 43 yds for a TD, (Harrison Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 10TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:3488% → 92%
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
87.6%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Bru McCoy for 4 yds to the Tenn 29Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+26
87.6%
Jabari Small run for 26 yds to the Misso 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
88.4%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jacob Warren for 12 yds to the Misso 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+19
88.5%
Jaylen Wright run for 19 yds to the Misso 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
88.4%
Jaylen Wright run for no gain to the Misso 14Similar
Q2 4:06
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+14
91.7%
Hendon Hooker run for 14 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1510% → 9%
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
90.5%
Brady Cook run for 8 yds to the Misso 40Similar
Q2 3:13
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+1
90.1%
Cody Schrader run for 1 yd to the Misso 41Similar
Q2 2:45
3RD & 1
OWN 41
0
90.3%
Brady Cook pass incomplete to Tyler StephensSimilar
Q2 2:35
4TH & 1
OWN 41
0
90.8%
Jack Stonehouse punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Dee Williams at the Tenn 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 12DOWNS
10 plays · 37 yds · 1:5192% → 92%
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
91.6%
Jabari Small run for 7 yds to the Tenn 29Similar
Q2 2:14
2ND & 3
OWN 29
-10
91.7%
Small, Jabari rush for 2 yards to the TENNESSEE31, PENALTY TENNESSEE holding 10 yards to the TENNESSEE19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 13
OWN 19
+11
91.7%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jalin Hyatt for 11 yds to the Tenn 30Similar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+28
91.6%
Hendon Hooker run for 28 yds to the Misso 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
92.3%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Bru McCoy for 5 yds to the Misso 37Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 5
OPP 37
0
91.4%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Jalin HyattSimilar
Q2 0:42
3RD & 5
OPP 37
0
91.0%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Jalin HyattSimilar
Q2 0:34
4TH & 5
OPP 37
-4
91.6%
Hendon Hooker sacked by Chad Bailey for a loss of 4 yards to the Misso 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 13FG
7 plays · 44 yds · 0:299% → 11%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
91.4%
Brady Cook pass incomplete to Cody SchraderSimilar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+40
91.3%
Brady Cook run for 40 yds to the Tenn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
89.6%
Brady Cook run for 4 yds to the Tenn 15Similar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 6
OPP 15
0
89.6%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+32
88.7%
Harrison Mevis 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 3:1890% → 89%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.9%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Bru McCoySimilar
Q3 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+25
89.8%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jalin Hyatt for 10 yds to the Tenn 35 for a 1ST down MISSOURI Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:26
1ST & 10
50
-10
90.5%
Hooker, Hendon pass complete to Hyatt, Jalin for 29 yards to the MISSOURI21, PENALTY TENNESSEE holding 10 yards to the TENNESSEE40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:01
1ST & 20
OWN 40
-3
90.2%
Hendon Hooker sacked by Isaiah McGuire for a loss of 3 yards to the Tenn 37Similar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 23
OWN 37
+3
89.9%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Bru McCoy for 3 yds to the Tenn 40Similar
Q3 12:41
3RD & 20
OWN 40
-5
89.6%
TENNESSEE Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Tenn 35Similar
Q3 12:18
3RD & 25
OWN 35
+13
89.2%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jabari Small for 13 yds to the Tenn 48Similar
Q3 11:38
4TH & 12
OWN 48
0
89.1%
Paxton Brooks punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Luther Burden III at the Misso 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 15TD
8 plays · 85 yds · 2:3711% → 22%
Q3 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
89.2%
Brady Cook pass incomplete to Mookie CooperSimilar
Q3 11:18
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+8
89.3%
Brady Cook run for 8 yds to the Misso 23Similar
Q3 10:55
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+8
89.3%
Brady Cook run for 8 yds to the Misso 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
88.8%
Brady Cook pass incomplete to Cody SchraderSimilar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+14
89.0%
Brady Cook pass complete to Barrett Banister for 14 yds to the Misso 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
88.2%
Brady Cook pass complete to Barrett Banister for 13 yds to the Tenn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
87.7%
Cody Schrader run for 4 yds to the Tenn 38Similar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+38
78.1%
Brady Cook pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 38 yds for a TD, (Harrison Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 16TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:2082% → 90%
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
82.2%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Dylan Sampson for 7 yds to the Tenn 32Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+68
90.4%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jalin Hyatt for 68 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 17PUNT
11 plays · 17 yds · 3:0411% → 10%
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
89.1%
Cody Schrader run for 7 yds to the Misso 21Similar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 3
OWN 21
0
88.9%
Brady Cook pass incomplete to Mookie CooperSimilar
Q3 7:52
3RD & 3
OWN 21
-5
89.6%
MISSOURI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Misso 16Similar
Q3 7:41
3RD & 8
OWN 16
+11
89.8%
Brady Cook run for 11 yds to the Misso 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
88.9%
Luther Burden III run for 3 yds to the Misso 30Similar
Q3 6:36
2ND & 7
OWN 30
-5
88.7%
MISSOURI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Misso 25Similar
Q3 6:08
2ND & 12
OWN 25
0
89.2%
Brady Cook pass incomplete to Elijah YoungSimilar
Q3 6:08
3RD & 12
OWN 25
-5
89.8%
MISSOURI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Misso 20Similar
Q3 5:50
3RD & 17
OWN 20
+11
89.9%
Brady Cook pass complete to Barrett Banister for 11 yds to the Misso 31Similar
Q3 5:15
4TH & 6
OWN 31
0
89.8%
Jack Stonehouse punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Dee Williams at the Tenn 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 18TD
4 plays · 69 yds · 0:3291% → 97%
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+42
90.5%
Dylan Sampson run for 42 yds to the Misso 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+15
91.3%
Dylan Sampson run for 15 yds to the Misso 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+10
91.3%
Hooker, Hendon pass incomplete to Keyton, Ramel, PENALTY MISSOURI pass interference 10 yards to the MISSOURI2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TENNESSEE.Similar
Q3 4:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
96.7%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Princeton Fant for 2 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:484% → 4%
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.7%
Brady Cook pass incomplete to Tauskie DoveSimilar
Q3 4:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
95.8%
Cody Schrader run for 5 yds to the Misso 30Similar
Q3 3:47
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
95.7%
Brady Cook pass incomplete to Barrett BanisterSimilar
Q3 3:39
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
95.9%
Jack Stonehouse punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Dee Williams at the Tenn 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 20TD
9 plays · 67 yds · 2:1597% → 99%
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
96.7%
Dylan Sampson run for 7 yds to the Tenn 40Similar
Q3 3:18
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+17
96.8%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Bru McCoy for 17 yds to the Misso 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
96.8%
Dylan Sampson run for 10 yds to the Misso 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+10
96.8%
Hooker, Hendon pass incomplete to Keyton, Ramel, PENALTY MISSOURI holding 10 yards to the MISSOURI23, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TENNESSEE.Similar
Q3 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+11
96.8%
Jaylen Wright run for 11 yds to the Misso 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
96.9%
Jaylen Wright run for 3 yds to the Misso 9Similar
Q3 2:13
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+8
96.9%
Jaylen Wright run for 8 yds to the Misso 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
96.9%
Jaylen Wright run for no gain to the Misso 1Similar
Q3 1:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.4%
Jaylen Wright run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:121% → 1%
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.2%
Dominic Lovett run for 5 yds to the Misso 30Similar
Q3 0:47
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
99.2%
Cody Schrader run for 3 yds to the Misso 33Similar
Q3 0:09
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
99.2%
Brady Cook pass incomplete to Mookie CooperSimilar
Q3 0:01
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+4
99.2%
Jack Stonehouse punt for 54 yds , Dee Williams returns for 4 yds to the Tenn 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3999% → 99%
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
99.4%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Bru McCoySimilar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+3
99.4%
Jabari Small run for 3 yds to the Tenn 20Similar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 7
OWN 20
+6
99.5%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Squirrel White for 6 yds to the Tenn 26Similar
Q4 13:14
4TH & 1
OWN 26
-4
99.4%
Paxton Brooks punt for 54 yds , Luther Burden III returns for a loss of 4 yards to the Misso 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 23FUMBLE
10 plays · 14 yds · 4:162% → 1%
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-5
98.3%
Brady Cook sacked by Tyler Baron for a loss of 5 yards to the Misso 11Similar
Q4 12:33
2ND & 15
OWN 11
+6
98.1%
Cook, Brady pass incomplete to Lovett, Dominic, PENALTY TENNESSEE pass interference 6 yards to the MISSOURI17, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSOURI.Similar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
98.3%
Cody Schrader run for 7 yds to the Misso 24Similar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 3
OWN 24
-2
98.2%
Cody Schrader run for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 22Similar
Q4 11:21
3RD & 5
OWN 22
-5
98.4%
MISSOURI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Misso 17Similar
Q4 11:02
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+15
98.4%
Brady Cook pass complete to Barrett Banister for 15 yds to the Misso 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
99.1%
Brady Cook pass complete to Barrett Banister for 4 yds to the Misso 36Similar
Q4 9:54
2ND & 6
OWN 36
0
99.1%
Cody Schrader run for no gain to the Misso 36Similar
Q4 9:07
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+5
99.2%
Brady Cook run for 5 yds to the Misso 41Similar
Q4 8:51
4TH & 1
OWN 41
-11
99.2%
Tyler Macon run for a loss of 11 yards to the Misso 30 Tyler Macon fumbled, recovered by Tenn Doneiko SlaughterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 24FG
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:53100% → 100%
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
99.7%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Jacob WarrenSimilar
Q4 8:43
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+3
99.7%
Dylan Sampson run for 3 yds to the Misso 27Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 7
OPP 27
-4
99.7%
Hendon Hooker sacked by TEAM for a loss of 4 yards to the Misso 31 TENNESSEE Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the Misso 31Similar
Q4 7:54
3RD & 11
OPP 31
+48
99.9%
Chase McGrath 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 1:350% → 0%
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 3 yds to the Misso 28Similar
Q4 7:21
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Brady Cook pass incomplete to Luther Burden IIISimilar
Q4 7:06
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-15
99.9%
Cook, Brady pass complete to Lovett, Dominic for 15 yards to the MISSOURI43, PENALTY MISSOURI pass interference 15 yards to the MISSOURI13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:36
3RD & 22
OWN 13
+8
99.9%
Brady Cook pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 8 yds to the Misso 21Similar
Q4 6:10
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
99.9%
Jack Stonehouse punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Dee Williams at the Tenn 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 26TD
2 plays · 57 yds · 0:12100% → 100%
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
99.9%
Joe Milton III run for 11 yds to the Misso 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
99.9%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Ramel Keyton for 46 yds for a TD, (Toby Wilson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 27PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:290% → 0%
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
99.9%
Brady Cook pass complete to Barrett Banister for 2 yds to the Misso 27 for a 1ST down TENNESSEE Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Misso 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-7
99.9%
Brady Cook sacked by James Pearce Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the Misso 35Similar
Q4 4:36
2ND & 17
OWN 35
+15
99.9%
Brady Cook pass complete to Tauskie Dove for 15 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:46
3RD & 2
50
0
99.9%
Brady Cook run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:32
4TH & 2
50
-5
99.9%
MISSOURI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Misso 45Similar
Q4 3:06
4TH & 7
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Jack Stonehouse punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Dee Williams at the Tenn 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 28TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 2:17100% → 100%
Q4 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
99.9%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Walker Merrill for 1 yd to the Tenn 21Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+20
99.9%
Dylan Sampson run for 20 yds to the Tenn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+58
99.9%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Squirrel White for 58 yds to the Misso 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
100.0%
Dylan Sampson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 2Similar
Q4 0:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
100.0%
Dylan Sampson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Toby Wilson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 29END OF GAME
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
100.0%
Nathaniel Peat run for 6 yds to the Misso 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:55
Brady Cook pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 38 yds for a TD, (Harrison Mevis KICK)
-9.7
TD · Q3 8:30
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jalin Hyatt for 68 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)
+8.2
TD · Q3 4:34
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Princeton Fant for 2 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)
+5.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com