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ALA

Alabama 30 at Ole Miss 24

MISS
2022 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2022 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadALA aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreALA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:37 · Zach Evans run for no gain to the Alab 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 11Pregame prior−32.5Home team on offense+0.2Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:09: Quinshon Judkins 1 Yd Run (Jonathan Cruz Kick) — MISS win probability +9.9 pts (now 44%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:08: Cameron Latu 8 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Will Reichard Kick) — ALA win probability +10.6 pts (now 66%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q3 7:28: Jonathan Mingo 3 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Jonathan Cruz Kick) — MISS win probability +23.2 pts (now 64%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:23: Ja'Corey Brooks 5 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Will Reichard Kick) — ALA win probability +12.2 pts (now 64%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 11:19: Will Reichard 23 Yd Field Goal — ALA win probability +7.8 pts (now 68%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 7 of 8ALA made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 11:37MISS 4th & 2 at ALA 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.6%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    26.5%−0.1
    86% to make
    Punt
    26.1%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:30ALA 4th & 17 at ALA 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.5%−0.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:04MISS 4th & 10 at MISS 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:03ALA 4th & 7 at ALA 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.6%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:00ALA 4th & 1 at ALA 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    62.5%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:07MISS 4th & 4 at ALA 4, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.0%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    36.0%−4.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:01MISS 4th & 10 at MISS 15, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%−1.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:53ALA 4th & 16 at ALA 33, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%−2.3
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:31ALA 4th & 6 at MISS 21, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.7%
    74% to make
    Punt
    46.5%−8.2
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:11MISS 4th & 11 at MISS 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%−5.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:19ALA 4th & 5 at MISS 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.5%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.7%
    92% to make
    Punt
    34.8%−19.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:38MISS 4th & 14 at MISS 21, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%−5.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:14ALA 4th & 16 at ALA 35, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.9%−7.4
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:27MISS 4th & 8 at ALA 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.6%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    32.9%−0.7
    32% to make
    Punt
    31.1%−2.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:23ALA 4th & 7 at MISS 31, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.6%
    54% to make
    Punt
    70.2%−6.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:46MISS 4th & 16 at ALA 20, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.1%
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    12.8%−0.2
    75% to make
    Punt
    8.9%−4.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ALA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 1:43MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:55ALA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:09MISS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:08ALA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:28MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:23ALA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1DOWNS
11 plays · 66 yds · 3:1817% → 18%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+20
16.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 20 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+16
16.5%
Jaxson Dart run for 16 yds to the Alab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
16.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 5 yds to the Alab 37Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+7
16.5%
Quinshon Judkins run for 7 yds to the Alab 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
16.5%
Quinshon Judkins run for 8 yds to the Alab 22Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+2
16.5%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the Alab 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
16.5%
Quinshon Judkins run for 6 yds to the Alab 14Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+1
16.5%
Jaxson Dart run for 1 yd to the Alab 13Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 3
OPP 13
-5
16.5%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Alab 18Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+6
16.5%
Jaxson Dart run for 6 yds to the Alab 12Similar
Q1 11:37
4TH & 2
OPP 12
0
18.3%
Zach Evans run for no gain to the Alab 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 3:0782% → 80%
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
18.1%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for no gain to the Alab 12Similar
Q1 11:37
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+2
18.1%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 2 yds to the Alab 14Similar
Q1 11:37
3RD & 8
OWN 14
+15
18.2%
Bryce Young pass complete to Cameron Latu for 15 yds to the Alab 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
18.1%
Bryce Young pass complete to JoJo Earle for 1 yd to the Alab 30Similar
Q1 11:37
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+1
18.1%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 1 yd to the Alab 31Similar
Q1 11:37
3RD & 8
OWN 31
-9
18.2%
Bryce Young sacked by JJ Pegues for a loss of 9 yards to the Alab 22Similar
Q1 8:30
4TH & 17
OWN 22
0
19.9%
James Burnip punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 1:2620% → 20%
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
19.7%
Zach Evans run for 5 yds to the Miss 37Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 5
OWN 37
-2
19.9%
Zach Evans run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 35Similar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+7
19.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 7 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
20.0%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
19.8%
Dayton Wade pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 10
OWN 42
0
19.7%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:04
4TH & 10
OWN 42
0
20.1%
Fraser Masin punt for 30 yds, downed at the Alab 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0180% → 79%
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
20.2%
Bryce Young pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+3
20.3%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 3 yds to the Alab 31Similar
Q1 7:04
3RD & 7
OWN 31
0
20.4%
Bryce Young pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:03
4TH & 7
OWN 31
0
21.2%
James Burnip punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Mingo at the Miss 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5TD
12 plays · 68 yds · 4:2021% → 28%
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
21.0%
Jaylon Robinson run for 8 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+1
21.5%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 1 yd to the Miss 41Similar
Q1 6:03
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+33
21.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Malik Heath for 33 yds to the Alab 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
21.8%
Jaxson Dart run for 3 yds to the Alab 23Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+12
21.8%
Quinshon Judkins run for 12 yds to the Alab 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
21.8%
Jaxson Dart run for 4 yds to the Alab 7Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 6
OPP 7
0
21.8%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:03
3RD & 6
OPP 7
+6
21.6%
Jaxson Dart run for 6 yds to the Alab 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
21.8%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Quinshon Judkins) to the Alab 6Similar
Q1 6:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
21.8%
Jaxson Dart run for 4 yds to the Alab 2Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
21.8%
Jaxson Dart run for 1 yd to the Alab 1Similar
Q1 1:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
28.0%
Quinshon Judkins 1 Yd Run (Jonathan Cruz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3873% → 71%
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
26.9%
Bryce Young pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:38
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-5
27.1%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for a loss of 5 yards to the Alab 22Similar
Q1 1:38
3RD & 15
OWN 22
+14
27.6%
Bryce Young run for 14 yds to the Alab 36Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 1
OWN 36
0
28.7%
Bryce Young run for no gain to the Alab 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7FG
9 plays · 32 yds · 2:5330% → 33%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
30.2%
Jaxson Dart run for 1 yd to the Alab 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+16
30.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Malik Heath for 16 yds to the Alab 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
30.2%
Zach Evans run for 2 yds to the Alab 17Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+4
30.2%
Quinshon Judkins run for 4 yds to the Alab 13Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+6
29.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 6 yds to the Alab 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
30.2%
Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the Alab 4Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
30.2%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
29.8%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
33.0%
Jonathan Cruz 22 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 3:0667% → 73%
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
33.3%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 3 yds to the Alab 23Similar
Q2 12:01
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+10
33.3%
Bryce Young pass complete to JoJo Earle for 10 yds to the Alab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
32.8%
Bryce Young pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 8 yds to the Alab 41Similar
Q2 12:01
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+6
32.1%
Jase McClellan run for 6 yds to the Alab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
32.1%
Jase McClellan run for 4 yds to the Miss 49Similar
Q2 12:01
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+15
31.8%
OLE MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Miss 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
27.4%
Jermaine Burton 19 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Will Reichard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5230% → 30%
Q2 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
29.9%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:53
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
29.8%
Zach Evans run for no gain to the Miss 15Similar
Q2 8:53
3RD & 10
OWN 15
0
29.1%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:01
4TH & 10
OWN 15
0
29.9%
Fraser Masin punt for 44 yds, downed at the Alab 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10FUMBLE
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:0070% → 67%
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
29.8%
Bryce Young pass complete to JoJo Earle for 10 yds JoJo Earle fumbled, recovered by Miss Otis ReeseSimilar
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
33.3%
DART, Jaxson pass to the right incomplete intended for HEATH, Malik broken up by ARNOLD, Terrion at the ALA31. PENALTY ALA Pass Interference on ARNOLD, Terrion enforced 15 yards to the ALA36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11TD
7 plays · 51 yds · 2:4334% → 44%
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+19
33.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Malik Heath for 19 yds to the Alab 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
34.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the Alab 15Similar
Q2 7:52
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+7
34.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Malik Heath for 7 yds to the Alab 8Similar
Q2 7:52
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+3
33.3%
Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the Alab 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
34.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for 4 yds to the Alab 1Similar
Q2 7:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
34.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for no gain to the Alab 1Similar
Q2 5:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
44.0%
Quinshon Judkins 1 Yd Run (Jonathan Cruz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 2:1259% → 52%
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
41.4%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 1 yd to the Alab 40Similar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+5
41.6%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for 5 yds to the Alab 45Similar
Q2 5:05
3RD & 4
OWN 45
-12
41.1%
Bryce Young sacked by Isheem Young and Tavius Robinson for a loss of 12 yards to the Alab 33Similar
Q2 2:53
4TH & 16
OWN 33
0
48.3%
James Burnip punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Mingo at the Miss 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13FUMBLE
1 play · 7 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
47.9%
Zach Evans run for 7 yds to the Miss 23 Zach Evans fumbled, recovered by Alab Terrion ArnoldSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14TD
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:1557% → 66%
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
43.1%
Jase McClellan run for 6 yds to the Miss 17Similar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+1
43.1%
Jase McClellan run for 1 yd to the Miss 16Similar
Q2 2:23
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+13
44.4%
Bryce Young run for 13 yds to the Miss 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
43.1%
Jase McClellan run for no gain to the Miss 3Similar
Q2 2:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
43.1%
Bryce Young pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
44.4%
ALABAMA Penalty, Delay Of Game (Jahmyr Gibbs) to the Miss 8Similar
Q2 0:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
33.8%
Cameron Latu 8 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Will Reichard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · 8 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
37.8%
Quinshon Judkins run for 8 yds to the Miss 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16FG
7 plays · 54 yds · 2:2962% → 68%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
38.0%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 14 yds to the Alab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
36.3%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jase McClellan for 1 yd to the Alab 40Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
33.7%
Jase McClellan run for 4 yds to the Miss 21Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 21
0
33.7%
Bryce Young pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 21
0
34.8%
Bryce Young pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+35
36.6%
Bryce Young pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 35 yds to the Miss 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:31
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+39
32.5%
Will Reichard 39 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 17TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:0337% → 64%
Q3 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
36.6%
Quinshon Judkins run for 5 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q3 12:31
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
37.3%
Quinshon Judkins run for 6 yds to the Miss 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
37.6%
DART, Jaxson scrambles to the right for a gain of 5 yards to the OLE41 (YOUNG, Byron). PENALTY OLE Holding on PETTUS, Micah enforced 10 yards from the OLE36 to the OLE26 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:31
1ST & 20
OWN 26
0
36.5%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:31
2ND & 20
OWN 26
+37
36.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Malik Heath for 37 yds to the Alab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
40.0%
Quinshon Judkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 38Similar
Q3 12:31
2ND & 11
OPP 38
-7
39.8%
Jaxson Dart sacked by Will Anderson Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the Alab 45Similar
Q3 12:31
3RD & 18
OPP 45
+15
36.8%
DART, Jaxson sacked for a loss of 1 yard at the ALA46 (TURNER, Dallas). PENALTY ALA Face mask on TURNER, Dallas enforced 15 yards from the ALA45 to the ALA30 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
40.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Malik Heath for 11 yds to the Alab 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
40.7%
Quinshon Judkins run for 9 yds to the Alab 10Similar
Q3 12:31
2ND & 1
OPP 10
+2
40.7%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the Alab 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
40.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 5 yds to the Alab 3Similar
Q3 7:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
64.0%
Jonathan Mingo 3 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Jonathan Cruz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:0545% → 64%
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
55.0%
Bryce Young pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
55.3%
Bryce Young pass complete to Kendrick Law for 7 yds to the Alab 32Similar
Q3 7:28
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+9
55.0%
Bryce Young pass complete to Kendrick Law for 9 yds to the Alab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
53.1%
Jase McClellan run for 1 yd to the Alab 42Similar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+13
53.1%
Bryce Young pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 13 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
51.1%
Roydell Williams run for 8 yds to the Miss 37Similar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+5
50.4%
Roydell Williams run for 5 yds to the Miss 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-10
49.2%
YOUNG, Bryce pass to the right complete for 10 yards to LATU, Cameron caught at the OLE35 and advanced to the OLE22 (BROWN, Troy). PENALTY ALA Holding on LATHAM, JC enforced 10 yards from the OLE32 to the OLE42 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:28
1ST & 20
OPP 42
+10
52.8%
Bryce Young pass complete to Kendrick Law for 10 yds to the Miss 32Similar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+12
49.3%
Jase McClellan run for 12 yds to the Miss 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
48.6%
Jase McClellan run for 7 yds to the Miss 13Similar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+7
48.6%
Bryce Young pass complete to Kobe Prentice for 7 yds to the Miss 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
48.6%
Jase McClellan run for 1 yd to the Miss 5Similar
Q3 7:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
48.6%
Bryce Young pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
36.4%
Ja'Corey Brooks 5 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Will Reichard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 2:1245% → 43%
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
44.7%
OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jordan Watkins) to the Miss 24Similar
Q3 1:23
1ST & 11
OWN 24
-1
44.6%
Quinshon Judkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 23Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+1
45.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 1 yd to the Miss 24Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
43.3%
Jaxson Dart run for no gain to the Miss 24Similar
Q4 14:11
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
42.9%
Fraser Masin punt for 25 yds, downed at the Miss 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20FG
9 plays · 44 yds · 2:5262% → 68%
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
37.6%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 9 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+11
37.1%
Jase McClellan run for 11 yds to the Miss 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
35.8%
Jase McClellan run for 9 yds to the Miss 20Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+12
35.8%
Jase McClellan run for 12 yds to the Miss 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
35.8%
Jase McClellan run for 3 yds to the Miss 5Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
37.8%
Bryce Young pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
39.8%
Bryce Young pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
32.0%
Will Reichard 23 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:4138% → 33%
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
37.7%
Quinshon Judkins run for a loss of 5 yards to the Miss 20Similar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+4
37.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for 4 yds to the Miss 24Similar
Q4 11:19
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-3
35.5%
Jaxson Dart sacked by Byron Young for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 21Similar
Q4 9:38
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
33.2%
Fraser Masin punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Kool-Aid McKinstry at the Alab 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:2473% → 67%
Q4 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-6
27.4%
Bryce Young sacked by Otis Reese for a loss of 6 yards to the Alab 35Similar
Q4 9:38
2ND & 16
OWN 35
0
30.7%
YOUNG, Bryce pass to the left complete for 12 yards to BROOKS, Ja'Corey caught at the ALA47 and advanced to the ALA47 (BATTLE, Miles), out of bounds. PENALTY ALA Illegal Touch-Pass on BROOKS, Ja'Corey enforced 0 yards from the ALA35 to the ALA35, penalty results in a loss of down [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:38
3RD & 16
OWN 35
0
32.1%
Bryce Young pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:14
4TH & 16
OWN 35
0
32.7%
James Burnip punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Mingo at the Miss 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 23DOWNS
8 plays · 36 yds · 1:4738% → 37%
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+19
37.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 19 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
41.0%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+9
39.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Quinshon Judkins for 9 yds to the Alab 49Similar
Q4 8:14
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+6
42.3%
Quinshon Judkins run for 6 yds to the Alab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
43.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Quinshon Judkins for 2 yds to the Alab 41Similar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 8
OPP 41
0
43.0%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:14
3RD & 8
OPP 41
0
42.2%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:27
4TH & 8
OPP 41
0
36.8%
Jaxson Dart run for no gain to the Alab 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 24FG
11 plays · 28 yds · 4:0474% → 89%
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
25.8%
Jase McClellan run for 3 yds to the Alab 44Similar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+1
25.7%
Jase McClellan run for 1 yd to the Alab 45Similar
Q4 6:27
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+10
26.4%
Bryce Young run for 10 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
24.9%
OLE MISS Penalty, Offsides (Otis Reese) to the Miss 40Similar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 5
OPP 40
+3
24.8%
Jase McClellan run for 3 yds to the Miss 37Similar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+3
24.8%
Jase McClellan run for 3 yds to the Miss 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
23.6%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 6 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q4 2:34
2ND & 4
OPP 28
-3
15.3%
Jase McClellan run for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 31Similar
Q4 2:34
3RD & 7
OPP 31
0
17.5%
Bryce Young pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:23
4TH & 7
OPP 31
+49
10.7%
Will Reichard 49 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 25DOWNS
10 plays · 55 yds · 1:3722% → 13%
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
22.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 9 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+35
25.2%
Quinshon Judkins run for 35 yds to the Alab 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
30.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Quinshon Judkins for 3 yds to the Alab 28Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+14
31.0%
Quinshon Judkins run for 14 yds to the Alab 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
30.9%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
28.6%
Jaxson Dart run for no gain to the Alab 14Similar
Q4 0:53
3RD & 10
OPP 14
-6
21.0%
Jaxson Dart sacked by Byron Young for a loss of 6 yards to the Alab 20Similar
Q4 0:46
4TH & 16
OPP 20
0
13.3%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 26END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:4694% → 94%
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
6.3%
[NH] Kneel down by ALA at ALA19 (team loss of 1).Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 19
0
5.8%
[NH] Kneel down by ALA at ALA18 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:28
Jonathan Mingo 3 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Jonathan Cruz Kick)
+23.2
TD · Q3 1:23
Ja'Corey Brooks 5 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Will Reichard Kick)
-12.2
TD · Q2 0:08
Cameron Latu 8 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Will Reichard Kick)
-10.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com