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Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadTA&M aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreTA&M score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:02 · Alex McPherson 26 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout marginPregame prior
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 1:33: Robby Ashford pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 16 yds for a TD, (Alex McPherson KICK) — AUB win probability +6.3 pts (now 58%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 5:32: Conner Weigman pass incomplete — TA&M win probability +7.9 pts (now 31%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 5:34: Tank Bigsby run for 2 yds to the TexAM 30 — AUB win probability +8.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
- TD · Q4 1:33: Conner Weigman pass complete to Jalen Preston for 17 yds for a TD, (Randy Bond KICK) — TA&M win probability +27.1 pts (now 31%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 1:28: Timeout TEXAS A&M, clock 01:28 — AUB win probability +21.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 4 of 9TA&M made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
- Q1 12:19TA&M 4th & 4 at AUB 47, tiedClose callPunted · 44.3% before the snapGo for it44.4%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 6:17AUB 4th & 14 at TA&M 40, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 55.7% before the snapGo for it55.6%−0.219% to convertField goal55.7%−0.134% to makePuntTheir call55.8%average punt
- Q1 3:36TA&M 4th & 13 at TA&M 18, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 43.0% before the snapGo for it42.6%−0.719% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.3%average punt
- Q2 13:56TA&M 4th & 9 at AUB 45, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.9% before the snapGo for it37.9%−0.232% to convertField goal37.4%−0.825% to makePuntTheir call38.2%average punt
- Q2 10:23AUB 4th & 4 at TA&M 40, up 7Close callPunted · 64.1% before the snapGo for it64.0%48% to convertField goal62.8%−1.234% to makePuntTheir call63.1%−0.9average punt
- Q2 4:02TA&M 4th & 10 at AUB 39, down 7Close callPunted · 33.3% before the snapGo for it32.7%30% to convertField goal32.5%−0.236% to makePuntTheir call32.3%−0.4average punt
- Q2 0:00AUB 4th & 19 at TA&M 39, up 7Numbers favored punt by 2.2 ptsWent for it · 67.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call65.2%−2.212% to convertField goal66.6%−0.736% to makePunt67.4%average punt
- Q3 11:05AUB 4th & 11 at TA&M 37, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.1% before the snapGo for it70.1%−0.227% to convertField goalTheir call70.3%40% to makePunt70.1%−0.2average punt
- Q3 10:43TA&M 4th & 10 at TA&M 37, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.8% before the snapGo for it28.0%−1.429% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.5%average punt
- Q3 8:34AUB 4th & 9 at AUB 24, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.2% before the snapGo for it70.7%−1.930% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call72.6%average punt
- Q3 6:56TA&M 4th & 10 at TA&M 21, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.4% before the snapGo for it25.2%−2.727% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.9%average punt
- Q3 5:05TA&M 4th & 10 at TA&M 27, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.7% before the snapGo for it25.0%−2.028% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.1%average punt
- Q3 3:33AUB 4th & 8 at AUB 38, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.0% before the snapGo for it74.7%−1.234% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call75.9%average punt
- Q3 2:40TA&M 4th & 12 at TA&M 2, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.8% before the snapGo for it20.0%−4.819% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.8%average punt
- Q3 0:39AUB 4th & 1 at TA&M 18, up 7Numbers favored go for it by 3.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 81.4% before the snapGo for it81.5%71% to convertField goalTheir call78.5%−3.179% to makePunt69.7%−11.8average punt
- Q4 14:08TA&M 4th & 24 at TA&M 11, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.2% before the snapGo for it12.0%−3.46% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.5%average punt
- Q4 10:48TA&M 4th & 2 at AUB 31, down 10Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 16.5% before the snapGo for it16.7%57% to convertField goalTheir call14.5%−2.254% to makePunt13.5%−3.2average punt
- Q4 6:36AUB 4th & 5 at TA&M 45, up 7Close callPunted · 88.2% before the snapGo for it88.2%41% to convertField goal85.6%−2.525% to makePuntTheir call87.2%−0.9average punt
- Q4 3:02AUB 4th & 4 at TA&M 9, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 92.9% before the snapGo for it92.4%43% to convertField goalTheir call92.1%−0.389% to makePunt87.2%−5.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 1 of 1TA&M made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
- Q1 1:33AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call60.5%97% to makeGo for two60.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:33TA&M Touchdown, down 4 before the tryNumbers favored go for two by 1.4 ptsKicked · madeKickTheir call10.8%−1.497% to makeGo for two12.2%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTA&MDrive 1PUNT8 plays · 18 yds · 2:4151% → 51%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+8
48.8%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Le'Veon Moss for 8 yds to the TexAM 42Similar
Q1 13:40
4TH & 3
OWN 42
+5
49.0%
CONSTANTINOU, Nik punt 21 yards to the AUB37 out of bounds, clock 13:40. PENALTY AUB Running Into the kicker on KELLY, Omari enforced 5 yards from the TAM42 to the TAM47 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
48.9%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Noah Thomas for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 2PUNT13 plays · 50 yds · 6:0249% → 50%
TA&MDrive 3PUNT8 plays · 9 yds · 2:4150% → 48%
AUBDrive 4TD4 plays · 62 yds · 2:0352% → 58%
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
58.3%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 16 yds for a TD, (Alex McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 5PUNT8 plays · 30 yds · 2:3744% → 42%
AUBDrive 6PUNT8 plays · 54 yds · 3:3358% → 60%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 7PUNT18 plays · 53 yds · 6:2140% → 34%
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-10
60.0%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TexAM 15Similar
Q2 10:23
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-10
59.8%
WEIGMAN, Conner pass up the middle complete for 15 yards to STEWART, Evan caught at the TAM37 and advanced to the TAM37, End of Play. PENALTY TAM Holding on ROBINSON, Layden enforced 10 yards from the TAM22 to the TAM12 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:23
3RD & 18
OWN 12
+25
60.7%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Devin Price for 25 yds to the TexAM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
57.7%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Evan Stewart for 2 yds to the Aub 49Similar
Q2 10:23
2ND & 8
OPP 49
-5
57.6%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Delay Of Game (Conner Weigman) to the TexAM 46Similar
Q2 4:26
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+5
61.3%
AUBURN Penalty, Offsides (Nehemiah Pritchett) to the Aub 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:02
4TH & 10
OPP 39
0
66.2%
Nik Constantinou punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Dazalin Worsham at the Aub 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 8INT14 plays · 49 yds · 4:0265% → 66%
Q2 4:02
3RD & 7
OWN 15
+15
64.7%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Personal Foul (Shemar Turner) to the Aub 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:02
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+14
67.5%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Tank Bigsby for 14 yds to the TexAM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
68.2%
ASHFORD, Robby pass to the left incomplete intended for BIGSBY, Tank thrown to the TAM10. PENALTY AUB Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on JONES, Keiondre enforced 5 yards from the TAM30 to the TAM35 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9MISSED FG9 plays · 38 yds · 3:5566% → 68%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
68.3%
ASHFORD, Robby pass to the right incomplete intended for MOORE, Koy broken up by JOHNSON, Antonio at the TAM15. PENALTY TAM Pass Interference on JOHNSON, Antonio enforced 15 yards to the TAM36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 37
-6
68.4%
Robby Ashford sacked by McKinnley Jackson for a loss of 6 yards to the TexAM 43Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 17
OPP 43
+6
66.2%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Tank Bigsby for 6 yds to the TexAM 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2234% → 31%
Q3 10:43
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
68.8%
Nik Constantinou punt for 40 yds , returns for no gain to the Aub 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 2:0969% → 69%
Q3 10:43
2ND & 6
OWN 27
-10
68.7%
HUNTER, Jarquez rush to the right for a gain of 22 yards to the AUB49 (MATHEWS, Jacoby). PENALTY AUB Holding on IRVIN, Jalil enforced 10 yards from the AUB27 to the AUB17. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 12PUNT6 plays · 0 yds · 1:3832% → 28%
Q3 8:34
2ND & 5
OWN 26
-5
67.6%
WEIGMAN, Conner pass up the middle complete for 6 yards to STEWART, Evan caught at the TAM26 and advanced to the TAM32 (PRITCHETT, Nehemiah), out of bounds. PENALTY Before the snap, TAM Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the TAM26 to the TAM21. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:56
4TH & 10
OWN 21
+4
71.6%
Nik Constantinou punt for 34 yds , Dazalin Worsham returns for 4 yds to the Aub 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 13FUMBLE3 plays · 24 yds · 1:2476% → 77%
Q3 5:32
2ND & 8
OPP 24
-3
77.4%
Tank Bigsby run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexAM 27 Tank Bigsby fumbled, recovered by TexAM McKinnley JacksonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2731% → 28%
Q3 5:05
4TH & 10
OWN 27
0
72.5%
Nik Constantinou punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Dazalin Worsham at the Aub 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3276% → 73%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 16PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 0:5328% → 25%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17FG4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0179% → 82%
Q3 2:40
3RD & 13
OPP 30
+12
76.2%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for 12 yds to the TexAM 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 18PUNT4 plays · -14 yds · 1:3120% → 15%
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-3
82.3%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Amari Daniels for a loss of 3 yards to the TexAM 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 19INT3 plays · 2 yds · 1:2883% → 84%
TA&MDrive 20FG4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5220% → 22%
AUBDrive 21PUNT8 plays · 30 yds · 4:1284% → 88%
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
50
+6
87.4%
Jarquez Hunter run for 6 yds to the Aub 49 Jarquez Hunter fumbled, recovered by AubSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 22FUMBLE4 plays · 12 yds · 1:0216% → 17%
Q4 6:36
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+17
83.1%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Devin Price for 17 yds to the TexAM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 23FG8 plays · 23 yds · 2:3291% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 24TD7 plays · 80 yds · 1:244% → 31%
Q4 2:57
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+9
96.4%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Jalen Preston for 9 yds to the TexAM 29Similar
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
95.8%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Blake Smith for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 45Similar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
69.1%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Jalen Preston for 17 yds for a TD, (Randy Bond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 25END OF GAME5 plays · -14 yds · 1:2891% → 95%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:33
Conner Weigman pass complete to Jalen Preston for 17 yds for a TD, (Randy Bond KICK)
-27.1
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:28
Timeout TEXAS A&M, clock 01:28
+21.3
KEY PLAY · Q4 5:34
Tank Bigsby run for 2 yds to the TexAM 30
+8