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LSU

LSU 13 at Arkansas 10

ARK
2022 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2022 · Razorback Stadium
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Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadLSU aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreLSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:25 · Reid Bauer punt for 52 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 85Home team on offense−3.3Pregame prior−3.6Garbage-time factor−0.4Score differential−0.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 5:25: Josh Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Damian Ramos KICK) — LSU win probability +13.7 pts (now 77%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 13:17: Cade Fortin pass complete to Matt Landers for 40 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) — ARK win probability +23.9 pts (now 49%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 5:59: Raheim Sanders run for 14 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST down — ARK win probability +12.9 pts (now 42%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:32: Cade Fortin pass incomplete — ARK win probability +10.7 pts (now 24%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:00: TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 45 — LSU win probability +17.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 7 of 10LSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 10:01ARK 4th & 5 at ARK 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:12LSU 4th & 12 at LSU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.1%−0.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:48ARK 4th & 5 at LSU 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.4%
    88% to make
    Punt
    43.7%−1.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:16ARK 4th & 3 at LSU 3, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.5%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    47.0%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    44.2%−3.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:10LSU 4th & 15 at LSU 10, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.6%−1.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:28LSU 4th & 13 at ARK 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.3%−1.3
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.6%
    75% to make
    Punt
    45.4%−4.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:03ARK 4th & 12 at ARK 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.0%−1.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:44LSU 4th & 1 at ARK 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    53.0%−2.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    51.7%−3.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:46LSU 4th & 9 at ARK 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.2%−0.9
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.1%
    87% to make
    Punt
    47.9%−6.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:25ARK 4th & 3 at ARK 48, down 3
    Close callPunted · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.6%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:13ARK 4th & 20 at ARK 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.6%−4.0
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:41LSU 4th & 7 at LSU 15, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%−1.8
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:16ARK 4th & 2 at LSU 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    44.7%−1.8
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:19ARK 4th & 3 at ARK 32, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%−0.4
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.1%
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:46LSU 4th & 12 at ARK 42, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.1%−1.0
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    75.0%−1.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    76.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:40LSU 4th & 19 at LSU 28, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.4%−8.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:57ARK 4th & 9 at ARK 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%−1.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.8%
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:08LSU 4th & 1 at ARK 43, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    60.4%−10.1
    28% to make
    Punt
    62.1%−8.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:00ARK 4th & 10 at LSU 43, down 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 3.0 ptsPunted · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    31.4%
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    28.4%−3.0
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:35LSU 4th & 1 at LSU 31, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.4 ptsPunted · 84.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.0%−3.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 1 of 1LSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q3 5:25LSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 13:17ARK Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.2%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LSUDrive 1INT
9 plays · 36 yds · 3:1657% → 56%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
43.0%
Jayden Daniels run for 3 yds to the LSU 28Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
43.1%
Jayden Daniels run for 7 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
43.2%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Jashaud Stewart for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 34Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 11
OWN 34
-7
43.3%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Chris Paul Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the LSU 27Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 18
OWN 27
+20
43.6%
Josh Williams run for 20 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
43.4%
Jayden Daniels run for 2 yds to the LSU 49Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+12
43.6%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 12 yds to the Ark 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
43.6%
Jayden Daniels pass intercepted Latavious Brini return for 5 yds to the Ark 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1944% → 44%
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
44.4%
Malik Hornsby pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 4 yds to the Ark 47Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 6
OWN 47
0
44.6%
Raheim Sanders run for no gain to the Ark 47Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+1
44.5%
Malik Hornsby run for 1 yd to the Ark 48Similar
Q1 10:01
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
44.4%
Reid Bauer punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:4356% → 55%
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
44.4%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 5 yds to the LSU 25Similar
Q1 9:23
2ND & 5
OWN 25
-2
44.4%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Terry Hampton and Drew Sanders for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 23Similar
Q1 8:56
3RD & 7
OWN 23
-5
44.8%
LSU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LSU 18Similar
Q1 8:29
3RD & 12
OWN 18
0
45.0%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:12
4TH & 12
OWN 18
+14
45.3%
Jay Bramblett punt for 52 yds , Bryce Stephens returns for 14 yds to the Ark 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 4FG
10 plays · 46 yds · 3:1046% → 47%
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
45.5%
Malik Hornsby pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 11 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
45.7%
Raheim Sanders run for 1 yd to the LSU 44Similar
Q1 7:28
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+14
45.8%
Malik Hornsby run for 14 yds to the LSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
46.2%
Malik Hornsby run for 4 yds to the LSU 26Similar
Q1 6:36
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+5
46.4%
Raheim Sanders run for 5 yds to the LSU 21Similar
Q1 6:22
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+6
46.1%
Raheim Sanders run for 6 yds to the LSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-2
46.7%
Malik Hornsby run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 17Similar
Q1 5:28
2ND & 12
OPP 17
0
46.8%
Malik Hornsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:18
3RD & 12
OPP 17
+7
46.4%
Malik Hornsby run for 7 yds to the LSU 10Similar
Q1 4:48
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+28
47.1%
Cam Little 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 5FUMBLE
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:1953% → 53%
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
47.4%
John Emery Jr. run for 4 yds to the LSU 14Similar
Q1 4:09
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+2
47.5%
Jayden Daniels run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 10 Jayden Daniels fumbled, recovered by Ark Latavious Brini , return for 2 yds to the LSU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 6DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3749% → 48%
Q1 3:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
48.6%
AJ Green run for 8 yds to the LSU 2Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
48.8%
AJ Green run for no gain to the LSU 2Similar
Q1 2:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
48.6%
Malik Hornsby run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 3Similar
Q1 2:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
0
47.8%
Malik Hornsby run for no gain to the LSU 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 7 yds · 3:5852% → 50%
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+5
48.1%
Josh Williams run for 5 yds to the LSU 8Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 5
OWN 8
+4
48.4%
Josh Williams run for 4 yds to the LSU 12Similar
Q1 0:59
3RD & 1
OWN 12
+3
48.9%
Josh Williams run for 3 yds to the LSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
48.6%
Josh Williams run for 3 yds to the LSU 18Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+3
48.8%
Armoni Goodwin run for 3 yds to the LSU 21Similar
Q2 14:14
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+3
49.6%
Armoni Goodwin run for 3 yds to the LSU 24Similar
Q2 13:42
4TH & 1
OWN 24
-5
49.8%
LSU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LSU 19Similar
Q2 13:31
4TH & 6
OWN 19
-9
50.3%
LSU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-9 Yards) to the LSU 10Similar
Q2 13:10
4TH & 15
OWN 10
+1
50.5%
Jay Bramblett punt for 41 yds , Bryce Stephens returns for 1 yd to the Ark 11 ARKANSAS Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Ark 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 8FUMBLE
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:3550% → 51%
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
49.9%
Malik Hornsby run for 11 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
50.9%
Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds to the LSU 46Similar
Q2 11:58
2ND & 7
OPP 46
0
51.1%
AJ Green run for no gain to the LSU 46Similar
Q2 11:24
3RD & 7
OPP 46
-17
50.7%
Malik Hornsby sacked by Harold Perkins Jr. for a loss of 17 yards to the Ark 37 Malik Hornsby fumbled, recovered by LSU BJ Ojulari , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 9FG
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:4353% → 53%
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+20
47.5%
Jayden Daniels run for 20 yds to the Ark 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
46.6%
Josh Williams run for 5 yds to the Ark 12Similar
Q2 10:19
2ND & 5
OPP 12
0
46.7%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:02
3RD & 5
OPP 12
-8
47.6%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Eric Gregory for a loss of 8 yards to the Ark 20Similar
Q2 9:28
4TH & 13
OPP 20
+38
47.0%
Damian Ramos 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 8 yds · 2:1649% → 48%
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
49.0%
Malik Hornsby run for 9 yds to the Ark 44Similar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+1
51.1%
Rashod Dubinion run for 1 yd to the Ark 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
51.0%
Rashod Dubinion run for 3 yds to the Ark 48Similar
Q2 8:05
2ND & 7
OWN 48
-5
51.1%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Illegal Shift (-5 Yards) to the Ark 43Similar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 12
OWN 43
0
49.9%
Malik Hornsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:20
3RD & 12
OWN 43
0
48.6%
Malik Hornsby run for no gain to the Ark 43Similar
Q2 7:03
4TH & 12
OWN 43
0
47.7%
Reid Bauer punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LSU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 11FG
13 plays · 61 yds · 5:0255% → 60%
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+32
45.5%
John Emery Jr. run for 32 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-12
43.2%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Zach Williams and Terry Hampton for a loss of 12 yards to the LSU 48Similar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 22
OWN 48
+12
45.4%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 12 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q2 4:59
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+9
44.2%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Josh Williams for 9 yds to the Ark 31Similar
Q2 4:44
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+9
44.4%
Josh Williams run for 9 yds to the Ark 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
42.0%
Noah Cain run for 6 yds to the Ark 16Similar
Q2 3:49
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+4
42.0%
Noah Cain run for 4 yds to the Ark 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
42.0%
Noah Cain run for 2 yds to the Ark 10Similar
Q2 2:32
2ND & 8
OPP 10
0
41.7%
Josh Williams run for no gain to the Ark 10Similar
Q2 1:47
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+4
42.3%
Jayden Daniels run for 4 yds to the Ark 6Similar
Q2 1:47
4TH & 4
OPP 6
-5
44.0%
LSU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 11Similar
Q2 1:46
4TH & 9
OPP 11
+29
40.5%
Damian Ramos 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 1:1740% → 42%
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
39.6%
Raheim Sanders run for 5 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
40.1%
Raheim Sanders run for 4 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+7
41.7%
Malik Hornsby run for 7 yds to the Ark 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
43.5%
Malik Hornsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+7
42.2%
Malik Hornsby run for 7 yds to the Ark 48Similar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 3
OWN 48
0
43.4%
Malik Hornsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:25
4TH & 3
OWN 48
0
42.1%
Reid Bauer punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
41.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 3:3245% → 42%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
44.8%
Raheim Sanders run for 1 yd to the Ark 26Similar
Q3 13:59
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
44.2%
Malik Hornsby pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 4 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q3 13:42
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+10
43.6%
Malik Hornsby run for 10 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
46.9%
AJ Green run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
50
0
47.6%
AJ Green run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 10
50
-8
47.1%
Malik Hornsby sacked by Harold Perkins Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the Ark 42Similar
Q3 12:12
3RD & 18
OWN 42
-2
43.2%
Malik Hornsby sacked by Harold Perkins Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 40Similar
Q3 11:13
4TH & 20
OWN 40
0
42.0%
Reid Bauer punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Gregory Clayton Jr. at the LSU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1756% → 55%
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
43.6%
Jayden Daniels run for 2 yds to the LSU 14Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+1
43.9%
Josh Williams run for 1 yd to the LSU 15Similar
Q3 9:51
3RD & 7
OWN 15
0
43.8%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Josh WilliamsSimilar
Q3 9:41
4TH & 7
OWN 15
+51
44.9%
Jay Bramblett punt for 51 yds , Bryce Stephens returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 16DOWNS
7 plays · 7 yds · 2:2045% → 46%
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
44.6%
Malik Hornsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:22
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+9
44.4%
Malik Hornsby run for 9 yds to the Ark 42Similar
Q3 8:59
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+2
46.9%
Raheim Sanders run for 2 yds to the Ark 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
47.5%
Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds to the Ark 47Similar
Q3 7:57
2ND & 7
OWN 47
0
48.0%
Jadon Haselwood run for no gain to the Ark 47Similar
Q3 7:26
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+5
46.3%
Malik Hornsby pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 5 yds to the LSU 48Similar
Q3 7:16
4TH & 2
OPP 48
-12
45.9%
Malik Hornsby run for a loss of 12 yards to the Ark 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 17TD
5 plays · 40 yds · 1:3661% → 77%
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
38.7%
John Emery Jr. run for 4 yds to the Ark 36Similar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+3
38.3%
Josh Williams run for 3 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q3 6:10
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+6
38.6%
Jayden Daniels run for 6 yds to the Ark 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+26
37.0%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 26 yds to the Ark 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
23.3%
Josh Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:4125% → 24%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
25.4%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 5 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
25.9%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Raheim Sanders for 2 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q3 4:32
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
25.1%
Cade Fortin pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:19
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
24.1%
Reid Bauer punt for 39 yds, downed at the LSU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 29 yds · 1:2576% → 75%
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+31
24.3%
Josh Williams run for 31 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
22.1%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:08
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-2
21.9%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Drew Sanders and Landon Jackson for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 42Similar
Q3 2:53
3RD & 12
OPP 42
0
22.5%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:46
4TH & 12
OPP 42
0
24.8%
Jay Bramblett punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Bryce Stephens at the Ark 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 20TD
10 plays · 94 yds · 4:0823% → 49%
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
23.3%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Bryce Stephens for 3 yds to the Ark 9Similar
Q3 2:05
2ND & 7
OWN 9
+5
23.1%
AJ Green run for 5 yds to the Ark 14Similar
Q3 1:48
3RD & 2
OWN 14
+8
22.4%
AJ Green run for 8 yds to the Ark 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
23.0%
Cade Fortin run for no gain to the Ark 22Similar
Q3 0:58
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-7
22.8%
Cade Fortin sacked by Sai'vion Jones for a loss of 7 yards to the Ark 15Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 17
OWN 15
+29
21.0%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Matt Landers for 29 yds to the Ark 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
23.6%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for 1 yd to the Ark 45Similar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+17
23.2%
Cade Fortin run for 17 yds to the LSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
24.9%
Rashod Dubinion run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 40Similar
Q4 13:17
2ND & 12
OPP 40
+40
48.8%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Matt Landers for 40 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 3 yds · 3:1860% → 62%
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
40.4%
Jayden Daniels run for 4 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q4 12:31
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
37.2%
Josh Williams run for 8 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
36.6%
Josh Williams run for 4 yds to the LSU 41Similar
Q4 11:21
2ND & 6
OWN 41
-5
34.8%
LSU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LSU 36Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 11
OWN 36
-9
35.0%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Chris Paul Jr. for a loss of 9 yards to the LSU 27Similar
Q4 10:10
3RD & 20
OWN 27
+1
37.0%
Jayden Daniels run for 1 yd to the LSU 28Similar
Q4 9:40
4TH & 19
OWN 28
0
37.8%
Jay Bramblett punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Bryce Stephens at the Ark 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:3842% → 37%
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
41.5%
Cade Fortin pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:22
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+1
40.9%
Cade Fortin run for 1 yd to the Ark 37Similar
Q4 9:04
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
39.6%
Cade Fortin pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:57
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
37.2%
Reid Bauer punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Gregory Clayton Jr. at the LSU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 23DOWNS
7 plays · 40 yds · 2:4066% → 71%
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+12
33.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 12 yds to the LSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
32.7%
Josh Williams run for 9 yds to the LSU 38Similar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+10
30.0%
Josh Williams run for 10 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
28.6%
Jayden Daniels run for 3 yds to the Ark 49Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 7
OPP 49
0
27.5%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:38
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+6
28.1%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 6 yds to the Ark 43Similar
Q4 6:08
4TH & 1
OPP 43
0
29.3%
Josh Williams run for no gain to the Ark 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:5942% → 37%
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
42.2%
Raheim Sanders run for 14 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
43.3%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Raheim Sanders for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 45Similar
Q4 4:44
2ND & 12
OPP 45
+2
40.7%
Raheim Sanders run for 2 yds to the LSU 43Similar
Q4 4:09
3RD & 10
OPP 43
0
41.4%
Cade Fortin pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:00
4TH & 10
OPP 43
0
36.5%
Max Fletcher punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LSU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 25PUNT
11 plays · 19 yds · 2:1374% → 86%
Q4 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
26.1%
Josh Williams run for 2 yds to the LSU 14Similar
Q4 3:13
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+4
24.8%
Josh Williams run for 4 yds to the LSU 18Similar
Q4 2:33
3RD & 4
OWN 18
+4
23.1%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 4 yds to the LSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
20.4%
LSU Penalty, Offensive Offside (-5 Yards) to the LSU 17Similar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 15
OWN 17
0
16.8%
Noah Cain run for no gain to the LSU 17Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 15
OWN 17
+1
15.8%
Jayden Daniels run for 1 yd to the LSU 18Similar
Q4 1:44
3RD & 14
OWN 18
+13
15.1%
Noah Cain run for 13 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q4 1:35
4TH & 1
OWN 31
0
13.6%
Jay Bramblett punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ark 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 26FUMBLE
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:1324% → 25%
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
24.3%
Cade Fortin pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+14
22.5%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 14 yds to the Ark 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
24.8%
Cade Fortin run for 6 yds to the Ark 44 Cade Fortin fumbled, recovered by LSU Mekhi WingoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:4093% → 94%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
7.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 45Similar
Q4 0:20
2ND & 11
OPP 45
-1
5.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:17
Cade Fortin pass complete to Matt Landers for 40 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)
+23.9
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:00
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 45
-17.3
TD · Q3 5:25
Josh Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Damian Ramos KICK)
-13.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com