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ALA

Alabama 31 at LSU 32

LSU
2022 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2022 · Tiger Stadium (LA)
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Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadALA aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreALA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDFGFGFGTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of GameFG-6.8LSU 32.3%Will Reichard 38 yd FG GOODAWAY 9 - HOME 7 · Q3 8:11
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:11 · Will Reichard 38 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remainingScore differential
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 101Pregame prior−16.0Home team on offense−4.8Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0Time remaining−0.7Score differential−2.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 3:30: Josh Williams run for 2 yds for a TD, (Damian Ramos KICK) — LSU win probability +20.7 pts (now 62%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 12:37: Roydell Williams run for 2 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — ALA win probability +24.4 pts (now 69%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 4:44: Bryce Young pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 41 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — ALA win probability +35.3 pts (now 82%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:47: Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 7 yds for a TD, (Damian Ramos KICK) — LSU win probability +53.2 pts (now 89%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:21: Will Reichard 46 yd FG GOOD — ALA win probability +23.4 pts (now 52%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7ALA made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 11:49LSU 4th & 19 at LSU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.5%−0.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:07LSU 4th & 11 at ALA 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.4%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    25.3%−0.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    25.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:57ALA 4th & 1 at ALA 19, tied
    Close callPunted · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.0%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:29LSU 4th & 9 at LSU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:02ALA 4th & 15 at ALA 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.3%−1.0
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:04LSU 4th & 13 at ALA 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−0.5
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:43ALA 4th & 12 at ALA 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.6%−1.0
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:56ALA 4th & 11 at LSU 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.3%−1.2
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.5%
    86% to make
    Punt
    51.3%−6.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:21LSU 4th & 7 at LSU 44, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.8%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:00ALA 4th & 2 at LSU 18, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.8%−1.0
    79% to make
    Punt
    54.9%−6.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:20ALA 4th & 1 at ALA 48, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    57.8%−2.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:55ALA 4th & 1 at LSU 41, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    53.5%−4.9
    32% to make
    Punt
    54.3%−4.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:11ALA 4th & 6 at LSU 20, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%−0.7
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.5%
    75% to make
    Punt
    46.0%−9.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:38ALA 4th & 14 at ALA 21, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%−7.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.7%
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:01LSU 4th & 7 at LSU 35, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.9%−2.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:52LSU 4th & 4 at ALA 14, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.0%−5.1
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.2%
    84% to make
    Punt
    30.1%−20.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:21ALA 4th & 10 at LSU 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.6%−13.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.8%
    60% to make
    Punt
    8.3%−20.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ALA made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 9:46LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 3:30LSU Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 12:37ALA Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    62.3%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    62.3%
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 4:44ALA Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    73.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    72.4%−0.9
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:47LSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.5%−2.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LSUDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 2:5616% → 17%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
15.9%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Josh Williams for 3 yds to the LSU 32Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+1
16.0%
Jayden Daniels run for 1 yd to the LSU 33Similar
Q1 13:50
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+21
16.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 6 yds to the Alab 39 for a 1ST down ALABAMA Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the Alab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-10
16.6%
Daniels, Jayden rush for 9 yards to the ALABAMA37, PENALTY LSU holding 10 yards to the LSU44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:05
1ST & 20
OWN 44
+5
16.7%
Josh Williams run for 5 yds to the LSU 49Similar
Q1 12:38
2ND & 15
OWN 49
0
17.0%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Jaray JenkinsSimilar
Q1 12:28
3RD & 15
OWN 49
-4
17.0%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for a loss of 4 yards to the LSU 45Similar
Q1 11:49
4TH & 19
OWN 45
0
17.2%
Jay Bramblett punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2INT
8 plays · 76 yds · 3:3983% → 81%
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+19
17.4%
Bryce Young pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 19 yds to the Alab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
17.4%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for 6 yds to the Alab 45Similar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+21
17.6%
Bryce Young pass complete to Cameron Latu for 21 yds to the LSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+19
17.7%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 19 yds to the LSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
17.9%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 3 yds to the LSU 12Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+7
18.1%
Jase McClellan run for 7 yds to the LSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
18.4%
Jase McClellan run for 1 yd to the LSU 4Similar
Q1 7:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
18.6%
Bryce Young pass intercepted, touchback. Jarrick Bernard-Converse return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 36 yds · 3:2319% → 21%
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
19.4%
Josh Williams run for 8 yds to the LSU 28Similar
Q1 6:57
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+5
20.0%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Josh Williams for 5 yds to the LSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
20.1%
Jayden Daniels run for 5 yds to the LSU 38Similar
Q1 5:52
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+19
20.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to John Emery Jr. for 4 yds to the Alab 42 for a 1ST down ALABAMA Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (15 Yards) to the Alab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
21.3%
John Emery Jr. run for 1 yd to the Alab 42Similar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 9
OPP 42
-2
21.8%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Henry To'oTo'o for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 44Similar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 11
OPP 44
0
21.5%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Jaray JenkinsSimilar
Q1 4:07
4TH & 11
OPP 44
0
21.1%
Jay Bramblett punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Kool-Aid McKinstry at the Alab 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0779% → 78%
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
21.3%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Ja'Corey BrooksSimilar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 10
OWN 10
0
21.4%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Ja'Corey BrooksSimilar
Q1 3:30
3RD & 10
OWN 10
+9
21.9%
Bryce Young run for 9 yds to the Alab 19Similar
Q1 2:57
4TH & 1
OWN 19
0
22.3%
James Burnip punt for 58 yds, downed at the LSU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 11 yds · 1:1122% → 22%
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+10
22.1%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 10 yds to the LSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
22.7%
Jayden Daniels run for 1 yd to the LSU 34Similar
Q1 1:44
2ND & 9
OWN 34
0
22.8%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Malik NabersSimilar
Q1 1:44
3RD & 9
OWN 34
0
22.4%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Brian Thomas Jr.Similar
Q1 1:29
4TH & 9
OWN 34
0
22.2%
Jay Bramblett punt for 55 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:2378% → 77%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
22.4%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Ja'Corey BrooksSimilar
Q1 1:19
2ND & 10
OWN 11
0
22.5%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Ja'Corey BrooksSimilar
Q1 1:19
3RD & 10
OWN 11
-5
22.8%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Alab 6Similar
Q1 1:15
3RD & 15
OWN 6
0
23.0%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jermaine BurtonSimilar
Q1 1:02
4TH & 15
OWN 6
0
23.4%
James Burnip punt for 56 yds, downed at the LSU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:4924% → 24%
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
23.8%
Malik Nabers run for 5 yds to the LSU 43Similar
Q1 0:13
2ND & 5
OWN 43
-3
24.8%
Armoni Goodwin run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line LSU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the LSU 40Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+14
24.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 14 yds to the Alab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:32
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
25.5%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Jaray JenkinsSimilar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-1
25.6%
Noah Cain run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 47Similar
Q2 13:49
3RD & 11
OPP 47
-2
24.9%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Will Anderson Jr. and Dallas Turner for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 49Similar
Q2 13:04
4TH & 13
OPP 49
0
24.4%
Jay Bramblett punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Kool-Aid McKinstry at the Alab 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:1076% → 74%
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
24.3%
Gibbs, Jahmyr rush for 4 yards to the ALABAMA14, PENALTY ALABAMA holding 5 yards to the ALABAMA5, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 15
OWN 5
+3
24.7%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for 3 yds to the Alab 8Similar
Q2 11:56
2ND & 12
OWN 8
0
25.2%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Isaiah BondSimilar
Q2 11:50
3RD & 12
OWN 8
0
25.7%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Roydell WilliamsSimilar
Q2 11:43
4TH & 12
OWN 8
0
26.3%
James Burnip punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Gregory Clayton Jr. at the Alab 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 9TD
4 plays · 49 yds · 1:2928% → 35%
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
27.9%
John Emery Jr. run for 9 yds to the Alab 40Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+15
28.2%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 15 yds to the Alab 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
29.0%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Will Anderson Jr. and Byron Young for a loss of 5 yards to the Alab 30Similar
Q2 9:46
2ND & 15
OPP 30
+30
34.6%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to John Emery Jr. for 30 yds for a TD, (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10FG
8 plays · 63 yds · 3:3967% → 68%
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
33.2%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for no gain to the Alab 25Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
34.1%
Bryce Young pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 24Similar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+65
35.8%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jase McClellan for 65 yds to the LSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
31.8%
Jase McClellan run for 6 yds to the LSU 5Similar
Q2 7:17
2ND & 4
OPP 5
-1
32.4%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 6Similar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 5
OPP 6
-6
34.3%
Bryce Young sacked by Harold Perkins Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the LSU 12Similar
Q2 5:56
4TH & 11
OPP 12
+29
31.6%
Will Reichard 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:1434% → 35%
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+17
33.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 17 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
36.0%
John Emery Jr. run for 5 yds to the LSU 46Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 5
OWN 46
-1
36.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 45Similar
Q2 3:55
3RD & 6
OWN 45
-1
36.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Josh Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 44Similar
Q2 3:21
4TH & 7
OWN 44
+37
35.2%
Jay Bramblett punt for 27 yds, downed at the ALABAMA 29 ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Alab 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12END OF HALF
14 plays · 63 yds · 3:1065% → 67%
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
34.8%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 6 yds to the Alab 25Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 4
OWN 25
0
34.2%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Kobe PrenticeSimilar
Q2 2:25
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+5
36.1%
Bryce Young pass complete to Roydell Williams for 5 yds to the Alab 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
35.3%
Bryce Young pass complete to Kobe Prentice for 4 yds to the Alab 34Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 6
OWN 34
0
35.1%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Kobe PrenticeSimilar
Q2 1:40
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+12
36.4%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for 12 yds to the Alab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+14
33.7%
Bryce Young pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 14 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+14
32.7%
Bryce Young pass complete to Cameron Latu for 14 yds to the LSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
31.7%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jahmyr GibbsSimilar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
32.2%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jahmyr GibbsSimilar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+8
33.7%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for 8 yds to the LSU 18Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 2
OPP 18
+36
32.8%
Will Reichard 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 13FG
17 plays · 55 yds · 6:3463% → 68%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
36.8%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 14 yds to the Alab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
35.3%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for no gain to the Alab 39Similar
Q3 13:57
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
36.2%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jahmyr GibbsSimilar
Q3 13:38
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+9
37.6%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jase McClellan for 9 yds to the Alab 48Similar
Q3 13:20
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+2
36.7%
Roydell Williams run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
50
+2
35.2%
Roydell Williams run for 2 yds to the LSU 48Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+3
35.7%
Jase McClellan run for 3 yds to the LSU 45Similar
Q3 11:35
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+4
36.6%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 4 yds to the LSU 41Similar
Q3 10:55
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+2
38.9%
Roydell Williams run for 2 yds to the LSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
37.1%
Roydell Williams run for 1 yd to the LSU 38Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+14
37.9%
Bryce Young pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 14 yds to the LSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-4
37.0%
Bryce Young sacked by BJ Ojulari for a loss of 4 yards to the LSU 28Similar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 14
OPP 28
+8
38.9%
Bryce Young pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 8 yds to the LSU 20Similar
Q3 8:16
3RD & 6
OPP 20
0
39.1%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Cameron LatuSimilar
Q3 8:11
4TH & 6
OPP 20
+38
32.3%
Will Reichard 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 14TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:2535% → 62%
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
35.4%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 9 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+21
38.5%
Jayden Daniels run for 21 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
40.5%
Josh Williams run for 6 yds to the Alab 39Similar
Q3 6:17
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+2
41.2%
Jayden Daniels run for 2 yds to the Alab 37Similar
Q3 5:48
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+16
41.0%
Josh Williams run for 16 yds to the Alab 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
43.5%
Josh Williams run for 3 yds to the Alab 18Similar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 7
OPP 18
0
43.7%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Brian Thomas Jr.Similar
Q3 4:38
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+9
40.2%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 9 yds to the Alab 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
42.6%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 6 yds to the Alab 3Similar
Q3 3:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
43.0%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Brian Thomas Jr.Similar
Q3 3:38
3RD & 0
OPP 3
-5
42.2%
LSU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Alab 8Similar
Q3 3:34
3RD & 0
OPP 8
+6
40.9%
Daniels, Jayden pass incomplete to Nabers, Malik, PENALTY ALABAMA pass interference 6 yards to the ALABAMA2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q3 3:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
61.6%
Josh Williams run for 2 yds for a TD, (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:4242% → 38%
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
58.2%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 2 yds to the Alab 27Similar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
58.4%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Cameron LatuSimilar
Q3 2:45
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
60.5%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Ja'Corey BrooksSimilar
Q3 2:45
4TH & 8
OWN 27
-6
61.7%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (-6 Yards) to the Alab 21Similar
Q3 2:38
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+59
62.3%
James Burnip punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Gregory Clayton Jr. at the LSU 35 LSU Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the LSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:3758% → 58%
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
57.8%
LSU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LSU 15Similar
Q3 2:29
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+6
57.7%
John Emery Jr. run for 6 yds to the LSU 21Similar
Q3 1:55
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+11
58.4%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 11 yds to the LSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
59.7%
Jayden Daniels run for 4 yds to the LSU 36Similar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 6
OWN 36
-1
62.2%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Dallas Turner for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 35Similar
Q3 0:13
3RD & 7
OWN 35
0
59.8%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Kayshon BoutteSimilar
Q3 0:01
4TH & 7
OWN 35
0
58.3%
Jay Bramblett punt for 41 yds, downed at the Alab 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 17TD
9 plays · 76 yds · 2:2338% → 69%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
62.0%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jermaine BurtonSimilar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+34
62.6%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 34 yds to the LSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
57.7%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 4 yds to the LSU 38Similar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+7
57.3%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for 7 yds to the LSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
55.9%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Ja'Corey BrooksSimilar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
56.3%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Cameron LatuSimilar
Q4 13:25
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+15
59.5%
Young, Bryce pass sacked for loss of 5 yards to the LSU36 (Wingo, Mekhi;Ojulari, BJ), PENALTY LSU face mask 15 yards to the LSU16, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALABAMA.Similar
Q4 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+14
55.6%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 14 yds to the LSU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
31.3%
Roydell Williams run for 2 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 18FG
13 plays · 69 yds · 5:2140% → 63%
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
39.9%
Jayden Daniels run for 6 yds to the LSU 23Similar
Q4 11:53
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+5
40.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 5 yds to the LSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+22
41.0%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 22 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
50
-2
46.5%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Byron Young and Tim Smith for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 48Similar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 12
OWN 48
+7
43.4%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 7 yds to the Alab 45Similar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+15
46.9%
Daniels, Jayden pass incomplete to Nabers, Malik, PENALTY ALABAMA pass interference 15 yards to the ALABAMA30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-3
50.9%
Jayden Daniels sacked by DJ Dale and Chris Braswell for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 33Similar
Q4 9:12
2ND & 13
OPP 33
+13
50.1%
Jayden Daniels run for 13 yds to the Alab 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
51.6%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for no gain to the Alab 20Similar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+8
52.2%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 8 yds to the Alab 12Similar
Q4 7:33
3RD & 2
OPP 12
-2
49.9%
Jayden Daniels run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 14Similar
Q4 6:52
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+32
62.8%
Damian Ramos 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 19TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 2:0144% → 82%
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
55.7%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for 8 yds to the Alab 43Similar
Q4 6:07
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+2
53.7%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 2 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
54.7%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for 14 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
52.9%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for no gain to the LSU 41Similar
Q4 4:54
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
53.4%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Ja'Corey BrooksSimilar
Q4 4:44
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+41
18.2%
Bryce Young pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 41 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 20TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:5130% → 89%
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
29.7%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Jaray JenkinsSimilar
Q4 4:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
29.2%
John Emery Jr. run for 5 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+31
29.2%
Jayden Daniels run for 31 yds to the Alab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
35.1%
Daniels, Jayden pass incomplete to Boutte, Kayshon, PENALTY ALABAMA pass interference 15 yards to the ALABAMA24, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
37.9%
Jayden Daniels run for 3 yds to the Alab 21Similar
Q4 2:26
2ND & 7
OPP 21
0
39.3%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Brian Thomas Jr.Similar
Q4 2:20
3RD & 7
OPP 21
+14
36.1%
Josh Williams run for 14 yds to the Alab 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
89.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 7 yds for a TD, (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 21FG
11 plays · 47 yds · 1:1926% → 52%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
74.4%
Bryce Young pass complete to Cameron Latu for 15 yds to the Alab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
71.6%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to JoJo EarleSimilar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
73.6%
Bryce Young pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 2 yds to the Alab 42Similar
Q4 0:59
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+15
74.5%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 15 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
70.7%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Cameron LatuSimilar
Q4 0:47
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+15
72.2%
Bryce Young pass complete to JoJo Earle for 15 yds to the LSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
65.2%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Ja'Corey BrooksSimilar
Q4 0:31
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
66.9%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Ja'Corey BrooksSimilar
Q4 0:26
3RD & 10
OPP 28
0
71.1%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Ja'Corey BrooksSimilar
Q4 0:21
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+46
47.7%
Will Reichard 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 22END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q4 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
56.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 23TD
9 plays · 25 yds · 0:0059% → 74%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
41.1%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 2 yds to the LSU 23Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+11
41.1%
Bryce Young run for 11 yds to the LSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
41.1%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for 6 yds to the LSU 6Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 6
0
41.1%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Ja'Corey BrooksSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+4
43.6%
Young, Bryce pass incomplete to Brooks, Ja'Corey, PENALTY LSU pass interference 4 yards to the LSU2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALABAMA.Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
41.2%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for no gain to the LSU 2Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
41.1%
Roydell Williams run for 1 yd to the LSU 1Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
25.7%
Roydell Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 24TD
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
85.9%
Jayden Daniels run for 25 yds for a TD Jayden Daniels run for 25 yds for a TD, (Jayden Daniels pass to Mason Taylor for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:47
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 7 yds for a TD, (Damian Ramos KICK)
+53.2
TD · Q4 4:44
Bryce Young pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 41 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-35.3
TD · Q4 12:37
Roydell Williams run for 2 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-24.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com