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LIB

Liberty 21 at Arkansas 19

ARK
2022 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2022 · Razorback Stadium
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Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadLIB aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreLIB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:08 · Aidan Alves punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Bryce Stephens at the Ark 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 138Pregame prior+9.8Home team on offense−33.5Score differential−14.4Garbage-time factor−8.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−6.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:42: Johnathan Bennett pass complete to Treon Sibley for 18 yds for a TD, (Nick Brown KICK) — LIB win probability +17.7 pts (now 76%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:35: KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 18 yds to the Ark 42 for a 1ST down — ARK win probability +14.3 pts (now 39%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 7:42: K. Jefferson pass,to T. Knox for 5 yds for a TD, (R. Sanders Run For Two-point Conversion) — ARK win probability +14.4 pts (now 26%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:11: Trey Knox 8 Yd pass from KJ Jefferson (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — ARK win probability +30.5 pts (now 44%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:10: Kneel down by BENNETT, Johnathan at ARK39 (team loss of 1). PENALTY Before the snap, ARK Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the ARK44 to the ARK39. NO PLAY (replay the down). — LIB win probability +33.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 11 of 12LIB made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 13:42ARK 4th & 8 at ARK 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.0%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:10LIB 4th & 8 at ARK 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.7%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:34ARK 4th & 8 at ARK 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.4%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:23LIB 4th & 4 at LIB 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:30ARK 4th & 11 at ARK 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.9%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.2%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:30LIB 4th & 8 at LIB 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.1%
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:36ARK 4th & 5 at ARK 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.8%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:46ARK 4th & 5 at LIB 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    73.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:27ARK 4th & 7 at ARK 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.6%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:09LIB 4th & 6 at LIB 24, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.8%−1.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:57LIB 4th & 2 at ARK 16, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    72.1%−1.4
    81% to make
    Punt
    61.8%−11.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:54ARK 4th & 8 at ARK 42, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.4%−1.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:28ARK 4th & 6 at LIB 46, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    30.9%−2.1
    23% to make
    Punt
    32.8%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:48ARK 4th & 12 at LIB 41, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.7%−0.6
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    21.8%−0.5
    32% to make
    Punt
    22.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:08LIB 4th & 7 at LIB 46, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.0%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:49ARK 4th & 3 at ARK 23, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    18.2%−0.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:04ARK 4th & 7 at ARK 39, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    16.0%−0.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 11:04ARK 4th & 4 at LIB 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    17.6%−0.7
    58% to make
    Punt
    11.0%−7.4
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:47LIB 4th & 1 at LIB 43, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.5%−1.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 1 of 2LIB made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 0:17LIB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:00LIB Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:42LIB Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 7:42ARK Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 1.3 ptsWent for two · failed
    Kick
    22.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    20.7%−1.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:11ARK Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    26.1%−6.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    32.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1888% → 87%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.6%
KJ Jefferson run for no gain to the Ark 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
87.6%
Raheim Sanders run for no gain to the Ark 25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+2
87.6%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 2 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q1 13:42
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
87.2%
Reid Bauer punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 2:3213% → 14%
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
87.3%
Johnathan Bennett pass complete to Demario Douglas for 10 yds to the Liber 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
87.2%
Johnathan Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:42
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
87.3%
Johnathan Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:42
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+5
87.3%
BENNETT, Johnathan pass to the right incomplete intended for FRITH, Noah thrown to the ARK30. PENALTY ARK Offsides on SANDERS, Drew enforced 5 yards from the LIB38 to the LIB43 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 13:42
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+8
87.2%
Dae Dae Hunter run for 8 yds to the Ark 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
87.2%
Dae Dae Hunter run for no gain to the Ark 49Similar
Q1 13:42
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
87.2%
Johnathan Bennett run for no gain to the Ark 46 Johnathan Bennett fumbled, recovered by Liber Johnathan BennettSimilar
Q1 13:42
3RD & 7
OPP 46
-1
87.2%
Dae Dae Hunter run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 47 fumbled, recovered by Liber Dae Dae HunterSimilar
Q1 11:10
4TH & 8
OPP 47
0
86.5%
Aidan Alves punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 35 yds · 2:3687% → 86%
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-3
86.5%
Raheim Sanders run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 5Similar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 13
OWN 5
+36
86.5%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Matt Landers for 36 yds to the Ark 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
86.7%
Raheim Sanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 40Similar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 11
OWN 40
-9
86.6%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Kendy Charles and Durrell Johnson for a loss of 9 yards to the Ark 31Similar
Q1 11:10
3RD & 20
OWN 31
+12
86.4%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 12 yds to the Ark 43Similar
Q1 8:34
4TH & 8
OWN 43
0
85.6%
Reid Bauer punt for 43 yds, downed at the Liber 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:1114% → 15%
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
85.7%
Dae Dae Hunter run for 3 yds to the Liber 10Similar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+4
85.7%
Dae Dae Hunter run for 4 yds to the Liber 14Similar
Q1 8:34
3RD & 3
OWN 14
+5
85.8%
Dae Dae Hunter run for 5 yds to the Liber 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
85.6%
Johnathan Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
85.7%
Johnathan Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:34
3RD & 10
OWN 19
+6
85.8%
Johnathan Bennett pass complete to Jerome Jackson for 6 yds to the Liber 25Similar
Q1 6:23
4TH & 4
OWN 25
-3
85.1%
Aidan Alves punt for 47 yds , Bryce Stephens returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5385% → 84%
Q1 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.9%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
84.9%
Raheim Sanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 24Similar
Q1 6:23
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
84.6%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:30
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
84.1%
Reid Bauer punt for 44 yds, downed at the Liber 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 2:0016% → 16%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
84.2%
Dae Dae Hunter run for a loss of 2 yards to the Liber 30Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 12
OWN 30
+8
84.4%
Johnathan Bennett pass complete to Demario Douglas for 8 yds to the Liber 38Similar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 4
OWN 38
-4
84.1%
Johnathan Bennett sacked by Jordan Domineck for a loss of 4 yards to the Liber 34Similar
Q1 3:30
4TH & 8
OWN 34
0
84.0%
Aidan Alves punt for 40 yds, downed at the Ark 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:5484% → 83%
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
83.9%
Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 7
OWN 29
-5
83.9%
Raheim Sanders run for a loss of 5 yards to the Ark 24Similar
Q1 3:30
3RD & 12
OWN 24
+7
83.5%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Warren Thompson for 7 yds to the Ark 31Similar
Q1 1:36
4TH & 5
OWN 31
0
82.8%
punt blocked by blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 8TD
5 plays · 59 yds · 1:1918% → 23%
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+31
82.1%
Johnathan Bennett pass complete to Demario Douglas for 31 yds to the Ark 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
81.4%
Shedro Louis run for 5 yds to the Ark 23Similar
Q1 1:36
2ND & 5
OPP 23
0
81.4%
Johnathan Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:36
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+7
81.7%
Johnathan Bennett run for 7 yds to the Ark 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
77.0%
Johnathan Bennett pass complete to Noah Frith for 16 yds for a TD, (Nick Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9DOWNS
8 plays · 38 yds · 1:2579% → 78%
Q1 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
78.5%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+19
78.3%
AJ Green run for 19 yds to the Ark 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+14
78.7%
AJ Green run for 14 yds to the Ark 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
79.5%
AJ Green run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 46
0
78.9%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 46
+7
78.4%
KJ Jefferson run for 7 yds to the Liber 47Similar
Q2 13:46
4TH & 5
OPP 47
0
77.9%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 10TD
5 plays · 53 yds · 2:4624% → 33%
Q2 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+10
76.1%
Dae Dae Hunter run for 10 yds to the Ark 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
75.8%
Johnathan Bennett pass complete to Treon Sibley for 9 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q2 13:46
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+2
75.6%
Dae Dae Hunter run for 2 yds to the Ark 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+12
75.7%
Johnathan Bennett run for 12 yds to the Ark 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
66.6%
Johnathan Bennett pass complete to Demario Douglas for 20 yds for a TD, (Nick Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 2:3364% → 59%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
63.5%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 5 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-1
64.0%
Raheim Sanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 29Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+13
63.3%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Warren Thompson for 13 yds to the Ark 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
64.7%
Raheim Sanders run for no gain to the Ark 42Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
64.4%
Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 7
OWN 45
0
64.4%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:27
4TH & 7
OWN 45
0
59.0%
Reid Bauer punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:1842% → 47%
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
58.5%
Johnathan Bennett sacked by Bumper Pool for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 19Similar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 11
OWN 19
-1
58.8%
Johnathan Bennett sacked by Drew Sanders for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 18Similar
Q2 8:27
3RD & 12
OWN 18
+6
59.2%
Shedro Louis run for 6 yds to the Liber 24Similar
Q2 6:09
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
56.5%
Aidan Alves punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Bryce Stephens at the Ark 29Similar
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
53.3%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (Ricky Stromberg) to the Ark 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13INT
4 plays · 45 yds · 1:1453% → 54%
Q2 6:09
1ST & 15
OWN 24
+13
53.1%
Raheim Sanders run for 13 yds to the Ark 37Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+9
54.2%
Raheim Sanders run for 9 yds to the Ark 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+28
55.0%
Raheim Sanders run for 28 yds to the Liber 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
53.7%
KJ Jefferson pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 14TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 4:1347% → 76%
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
53.2%
Shedro Louis run for 5 yds to the Liber 25Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
51.6%
Johnathan Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+33
52.0%
Johnathan Bennett pass complete to Demario Douglas for 33 yds to the Ark 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
49.8%
Shedro Louis run for 2 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+9
49.9%
Shedro Louis run for 9 yds to the Ark 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
49.6%
Shedro Louis run for 7 yds to the Ark 24Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+1
42.1%
Johnathan Bennett pass complete to Demario Douglas for 1 yd to the Ark 23Similar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+5
42.1%
Johnathan Bennett run for 5 yds to the Ark 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
42.1%
Johnathan Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+18
24.4%
Johnathan Bennett pass complete to Treon Sibley for 18 yds for a TD, (Nick Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15FG
6 plays · 44 yds · 0:3539% → 43%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+18
38.7%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 18 yds to the Ark 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-11
37.2%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Durrell Johnson for a loss of 11 yards to the Ark 31Similar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 21
OWN 31
+15
35.9%
LIBERTY Penalty, Personal Foul (Durrell Johnson) to the Liber 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+50
42.5%
Cam Little 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 16DOWNS
11 plays · 58 yds · 5:0361% → 73%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
39.1%
Demario Douglas run for a loss of 8 yards to the Liber 17 Demario Douglas fumbled, recovered by Liber Demario DouglasSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+42
39.2%
Johnathan Bennett pass complete to Demario Douglas for 42 yds to the Ark 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
37.4%
Shedro Louis run for 3 yds to the Ark 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+5
37.3%
Shedro Louis run for 5 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+9
36.6%
Johnathan Bennett pass complete to Jerome Jackson for 9 yds to the Ark 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
36.1%
Shedro Louis run for 1 yd to the Ark 23Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 23
0
36.1%
Johnathan Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:01
3RD & 9
OPP 23
+7
26.2%
Johnathan Bennett pass complete to Austin Henderson for 7 yds to the Ark 16Similar
Q3 9:57
4TH & 2
OPP 16
-1
27.3%
Shedro Louis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 3:0333% → 28%
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
32.6%
Raheim Sanders run for 6 yds to the Ark 23Similar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+2
33.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Raheim Sanders for 2 yds to the Ark 25Similar
Q3 9:57
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+15
32.9%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 15 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
34.2%
Jadon Haselwood run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 38Similar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 12
OWN 38
-4
33.0%
KJ Jefferson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 34Similar
Q3 9:57
3RD & 16
OWN 34
+8
32.3%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 8 yds to the Ark 42Similar
Q3 6:54
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
28.0%
Reid Bauer punt for 50 yds , Demario Douglas returns for no gain to the Liber 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 18PUNT
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0079% → 80%
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
21.4%
T.J. Green run for 4 yds to the Liber 12Similar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 6
OWN 12
-5
21.7%
Johnathan Bennett sacked by Myles Slusher for a loss of 5 yards to the Liber 7Similar
Q3 6:54
3RD & 11
OWN 7
0
20.4%
Johnathan Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19DOWNS
16 plays · 35 yds · 5:4032% → 23%
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
31.5%
Raheim Sanders run for 1 yd to the Ark 23Similar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+7
31.3%
KJ Jefferson run for 7 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q3 5:28
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+7
32.0%
KJ Jefferson run for 7 yds to the Ark 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
32.6%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (Brady Latham) to the Ark 32Similar
Q3 5:28
1ST & 15
OWN 32
-2
31.6%
Rashod Dubinion run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 30Similar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 17
OWN 30
-6
31.3%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (Luke Jones) to the Ark 24Similar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 23
OWN 24
+3
31.2%
KJ Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q3 5:28
3RD & 20
OWN 27
+23
30.9%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Raheim Sanders for 23 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
50
-10
34.0%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Ahmad Walker for a loss of 10 yards to the Ark 40Similar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 20
OWN 40
+9
31.9%
Raheim Sanders run for 9 yds to the Ark 49Similar
Q3 5:28
3RD & 11
OWN 49
+5
32.3%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Bryce Stephens for 5 yds to the Liber 46Similar
Q3 5:28
4TH & 6
OPP 46
+7
33.4%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Bryce Stephens for 7 yds to the Liber 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
34.7%
KJ Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Liber 37 KJ Jefferson fumbled, recovered by Ark KJ JeffersonSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 37
-4
24.7%
Rashod Dubinion run for a loss of 4 yards to the Liber 41Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 41
0
23.4%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:48
4TH & 12
OPP 41
-2
22.6%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Durrell Johnson and Dre Butler for a loss of 2 yards to the Liber 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:4085% → 88%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
15.1%
Johnathan Bennett run for 2 yds to the Liber 45Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+7
15.0%
Johnathan Bennett pass complete to Caleb Snead for 7 yds to the Ark 48Similar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 1
OPP 48
-1
14.8%
Malik Caper run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 49Similar
Q4 13:14
4TH & 2
OPP 49
-5
12.7%
LIBERTY Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the Liber 46Similar
Q4 13:08
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
12.5%
Aidan Alves punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Bryce Stephens at the Ark 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 21INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
10.6%
KJ Jefferson pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 22INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
10.4%
Johnathan Bennett pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 23TD
18 plays · 84 yds · 5:0711% → 26%
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
10.5%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Hudson Henry for 9 yds to the Ark 25Similar
Q4 12:49
2ND & 1
OWN 25
-2
10.9%
Raheim Sanders run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 23Similar
Q4 12:49
3RD & 3
OWN 23
0
9.8%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:49
4TH & 3
OWN 23
+13
9.8%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 13 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
9.5%
Raheim Sanders run for 1 yd to the Ark 37Similar
Q4 11:04
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+2
9.2%
AJ Green run for 2 yds to the Ark 39Similar
Q4 11:04
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
9.4%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:04
4TH & 7
OWN 39
+11
9.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Matt Landers for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
50
+15
10.1%
KJ Jefferson run for 15 yds to the Liber 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
11.0%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:04
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
10.9%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:04
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+6
10.4%
KJ Jefferson run for 6 yds to the Liber 29Similar
Q4 11:04
4TH & 4
OPP 29
+13
10.2%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 13 yds to the Liber 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
11.1%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:04
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+10
11.1%
KJ Jefferson run for 10 yds to the Liber 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
11.1%
KJ Jefferson run for 1 yd to the Liber 5Similar
Q4 7:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
25.6%
K. Jefferson pass,to T. Knox for 5 yds for a TD, (R. Sanders Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 3:4985% → 93%
Q4 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
15.5%
Shedro Louis run for no gain to the Liber 21Similar
Q4 7:36
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+7
15.8%
Johnathan Bennett pass complete to Caleb Snead for 7 yds to the Liber 28Similar
Q4 5:31
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+6
10.6%
Shedro Louis run for 6 yds to the Liber 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
8.8%
Shedro Louis run for 9 yds to the Liber 43Similar
Q4 5:31
2ND & 1
OWN 43
-1
7.9%
Shedro Louis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 42Similar
Q4 5:31
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+1
8.1%
Shedro Louis run for 1 yd to the Liber 43Similar
Q4 3:47
4TH & 1
OWN 43
0
6.8%
Aidan Alves punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Bryce Stephens at the Ark 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 25TD
8 plays · 85 yds · 2:3610% → 44%
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+13
10.3%
AJ Green run for 13 yds to the Ark 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
10.7%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Matt Landers for 9 yds to the Ark 37Similar
Q4 3:47
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+10
12.7%
AJ Green run for 10 yds to the Ark 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
12.7%
JEFFERSON, KJ pass up the middle complete for 13 yards to JACKSON JR., Ketron caught at the LIB40 and advanced to the LIB40, End of Play. PENALTY ARK Holding on WAGNER, Dalton enforced 10 yards from the ARK47 to the ARK37 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 3:47
1ST & 20
OWN 37
+7
10.7%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Matt Landers for 7 yds to the Ark 44Similar
Q4 3:47
2ND & 13
OWN 44
+14
10.8%
KJ Jefferson run for 14 yds to the Liber 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+34
13.8%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Matt Landers for 34 yds to the Liber 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
44.3%
Trey Knox 8 Yd pass from KJ Jefferson (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 26END OF GAME
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:1089% → 96%
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
10.8%
Kneel down by BENNETT, Johnathan at ARK39 (team loss of 1). PENALTY Before the snap, ARK Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the ARK44 to the ARK39. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:43
1ST & 5
OPP 39
0
8.2%
[NH] Kneel down by BENNETT, Johnathan at ARK40 (team loss of 1).Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 40
0
4.3%
[NH] Kneel down by BENNETT, Johnathan at ARK47 (team loss of 7), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:10
Kneel down by BENNETT, Johnathan at ARK39 (team loss of 1). PENALTY Before the snap, ARK Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the ARK44 to the ARK39. NO PLAY (replay the down).
-33.5
TD · Q4 1:11
Trey Knox 8 Yd pass from KJ Jefferson (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
+30.5
TD · Q2 0:42
Johnathan Bennett pass complete to Treon Sibley for 18 yds for a TD, (Nick Brown KICK)
-17.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com