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MISS

Ole Miss 31 at Texas A&M 28

TA&M
2022 · Week 9 · Oct 29, 2022 · Kyle Field
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Win probability · TA&M
modelTA&M aheadMISS aheadconfidence bandkey playTA&M scoreMISS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:11 · Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 7 yds to the TexAM 22 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 43Home team on offense+1.4Garbage-time factor−0.2Score differential+0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6Pregame prior+1.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:00: Jaxson Dart pass complete to Casey Kelly for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK) — MISS win probability +16.1 pts (now 58%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:02: Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 2 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK) — MISS win probability +17.0 pts (now 79%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 9:11: Conner Weigman pass complete to Noah Thomas for 2 yds for a TD, (Randy Bond KICK) — TA&M win probability +29.6 pts (now 52%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q4 7:18: Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK) — MISS win probability +20.6 pts (now 91%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:25: Conner Weigman pass complete to Devon Achane for 7 yds for a TD, (Randy Bond KICK) — TA&M win probability +30.2 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TA&M made the numbers' call on 6 of 9MISS made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 9:37TA&M 4th & 1 at MISS 3, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.4%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    43.0%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    41.8%−1.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:12MISS 4th & 13 at MISS 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%−0.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:11MISS 4th & 5 at TA&M 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    48.2%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    45.8%−2.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:01MISS 4th & 3 at TA&M 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.1%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    47.9%−0.2
    83% to make
    Punt
    44.5%−3.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:40TA&M 4th & 3 at MISS 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.0%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    54.2%−0.8
    47% to make
    Punt
    53.7%−1.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:43MISS 4th & 6 at MISS 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.7%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:10TA&M 4th & 1 at TA&M 44, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.9%−1.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:10MISS 4th & 4 at MISS 16, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.2%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    40.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:33MISS 4th & 10 at TA&M 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.9%
    60% to make
    Punt
    33.6%−5.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:28TA&M 4th & 24 at MISS 44, up 4
    Close callPunted · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.8%−1.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    54.9%
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.5%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:43TA&M 4th & 21 at TA&M 45, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.5%−3.0
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:28TA&M 4th & 11 at TA&M 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%−2.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00TA&M 4th & 2 at TA&M 25, down 10
    Close callPunted · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.1%−0.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:08MISS 4th & 6 at TA&M 38, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    79.0%−1.5
    38% to make
    Punt
    79.0%−1.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:52TA&M 4th & 10 at MISS 42, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.3%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    11.9%−0.4
    30% to make
    Punt
    11.8%−0.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:21MISS 4th & 6 at MISS 46, up 10
    Close callPunted · 91.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.3%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:54MISS 4th & 3 at MISS 32, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.7%−4.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.8%
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:16TA&M 4th & 3 at TA&M 15, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.7%−4.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TA&M made the numbers' call on 2 of 4MISS made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 13:02MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:37TA&M Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:16TA&M Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:00MISS Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:02MISS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:11TA&M Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.6%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.0%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:18MISS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.8%−0.5
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:25TA&M Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.2%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:4848% → 48%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
52.3%
Dayton Wade run for 7 yds to the Miss 32Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
52.4%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q1 13:27
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+16
52.5%
Quinshon Judkins run for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
50
+22
52.3%
Quinshon Judkins run for 22 yds to the TexAM 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
52.3%
Quinshon Judkins run for 8 yds to the TexAM 20Similar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 2
OPP 20
+2
52.3%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the TexAM 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
51.6%
Dayton Wade 18 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Jonathan Cruz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 2TD
10 plays · 77 yds · 3:2152% → 53%
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+17
51.8%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Devon Achane for 2 yds to the TexAM 25 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the TexAM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
52.0%
Devon Achane run for 6 yds to the TexAM 46Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+11
52.0%
Devon Achane run for 11 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+31
52.1%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Max Wright for 31 yds to the Miss 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
52.1%
Devon Achane run for 2 yds to the Miss 10Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+7
52.1%
Devon Achane run for 7 yds to the Miss 3Similar
Q1 9:41
3RD & 1
OPP 3
0
51.7%
Devon Achane run for no gain to the Miss 3Similar
Q1 9:37
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+3
53.3%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Moose Muhammad III for 3 yds for a TD, (Randy Bond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:1347% → 47%
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
53.0%
Zach Evans run for 10 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
52.8%
Zach Evans run for 10 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-7
52.4%
Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the Miss 48 OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Miss 38Similar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 17
OWN 38
+2
52.8%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q1 8:06
2ND & 15
OWN 40
0
52.9%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 15
OWN 40
+2
53.1%
Jaxson Dart run for 2 yds to the Miss 42Similar
Q1 7:12
4TH & 13
OWN 42
+8
53.3%
Fraser Masin punt for 37 yds , Moose Muhammad III returns for 8 yds to the 50 yard line TEXAS A&M Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the TexAM 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 4TD
7 plays · 81 yds · 2:4453% → 59%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+19
53.1%
Devon Achane run for 19 yds to the TexAM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
53.6%
Devon Achane run for 1 yd to the TexAM 39Similar
Q1 5:54
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+3
53.7%
Devon Achane run for 3 yds to the TexAM 42Similar
Q1 5:54
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+17
53.5%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Moose Muhammad III for 17 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+26
54.6%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Donovan Green for 26 yds to the Miss 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
58.8%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Evan Stewart for 15 yds for a TD, (Randy Bond KICK)Similar
Q1 4:16
1ST & 0
OPP 3
-5
59.3%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Miss 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5DOWNS
14 plays · 57 yds · 4:1543% → 42%
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
57.5%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+27
57.5%
Quinshon Judkins run for 27 yds to the TexAM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
56.5%
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the TexAM 45Similar
Q1 3:11
2ND & 9
OPP 45
0
56.7%
Quinshon Judkins run for no gain to the TexAM 45Similar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+11
57.1%
Jaxson Dart run for 11 yds to the TexAM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
55.8%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:07
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+5
55.9%
Dayton Wade run for 5 yds to the TexAM 29Similar
Q1 1:40
3RD & 5
OPP 29
0
56.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for no gain to the TexAM 29Similar
Q1 1:11
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+7
57.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 7 yds to the TexAM 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
56.0%
Zach Evans run for 4 yds to the TexAM 18Similar
Q1 0:36
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+4
56.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for 4 yds to the TexAM 14Similar
Q1 0:23
3RD & 2
OPP 14
-1
57.0%
Quinshon Judkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 15Similar
Q1 0:01
4TH & 3
OPP 15
-3
57.8%
Jaxson Dart run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexAM 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 6DOWNS
6 plays · 46 yds · 2:0859% → 61%
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+31
59.3%
Devon Achane run for 31 yds to the TexAM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
61.0%
Devon Achane run for 10 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
61.4%
Devon Achane run for 3 yds to the Miss 38Similar
Q2 13:22
2ND & 7
OPP 38
0
61.7%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Evan StewartSimilar
Q2 13:05
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+4
61.2%
Devon Achane run for 4 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q2 12:40
4TH & 3
OPP 34
-2
60.7%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Evan Stewart for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4541% → 39%
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
59.2%
Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the Miss 39Similar
Q2 12:09
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
59.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for no gain to the Miss 39Similar
Q2 11:49
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+1
59.8%
Jaxson Dart run for 1 yd to the Miss 40Similar
Q2 11:43
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
60.6%
Fraser Masin punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Moose Muhammad III at the TexAM 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 22 yds · 2:2361% → 62%
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+13
60.9%
Devon Achane run for 13 yds to the TexAM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
61.5%
Devon Achane run for 3 yds to the TexAM 38Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+6
62.6%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Donovan Green for 6 yds to the TexAM 44Similar
Q2 9:40
3RD & 1
OWN 44
0
62.8%
Le'Veon Moss run for no gain to the TexAM 44Similar
Q2 9:10
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
62.2%
Nik Constantinou punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jordan Watkins at the Miss 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9FG
16 plays · 62 yds · 5:2238% → 42%
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
61.9%
Jaxson Dart run for 3 yds to the Miss 13Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+3
62.2%
Zach Evans run for 3 yds to the Miss 16Similar
Q2 8:14
3RD & 4
OWN 16
0
63.6%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Zach EvansSimilar
Q2 8:10
4TH & 4
OWN 16
+4
64.3%
JJ Pegues run for 4 yds to the Miss 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+24
62.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 24 yds to the Miss 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
61.3%
Jaxson Dart run for 2 yds to the Miss 46Similar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 8
OWN 46
0
61.1%
Jaxson Dart run for no gain to the Miss 46Similar
Q2 6:40
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+15
62.5%
Quinshon Judkins run for 15 yds to the TexAM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
60.8%
Quinshon Judkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 40Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 11
OPP 40
-10
61.1%
OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 21
50
+19
63.0%
Jaxson Dart run for 19 yds to the TexAM 31 Jaxson Dart fumbled, recovered by Miss Jaxson DartSimilar
Q2 5:40
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+3
60.8%
Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the TexAM 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-9
59.5%
Jaxson Dart sacked by McKinnley Jackson for a loss of 9 yards to the TexAM 37Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 19
OPP 37
+14
62.6%
Jaxson Dart run for 14 yds to the TexAM 23Similar
Q2 4:19
3RD & 5
OPP 23
-5
61.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for a loss of 5 yards to the TexAM 28Similar
Q2 3:33
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+46
57.8%
Jonathan Cruz 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 10PUNT
12 plays · 31 yds · 3:0060% → 59%
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
59.9%
OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (13 Yards) to the TexAM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
61.6%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Moose Muhammad III for 7 yds to the TexAM 45Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 3
OWN 45
0
62.5%
Devon Achane run for no gain to the TexAM 45Similar
Q2 1:44
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+14
61.4%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Devon Achane for 14 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
63.3%
Devon Achane run for 9 yds to the Miss 32Similar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+2
63.7%
Devon Achane run for 2 yds to the Miss 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-6
63.9%
Conner Weigman sacked by Cedric Johnson for a loss of 6 yards to the Miss 36Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 16
OPP 36
-3
62.3%
Conner Weigman sacked by JJ Pegues for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 39Similar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 19
OPP 39
0
61.0%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Moose Muhammad IIISimilar
Q2 0:37
4TH & 19
OPP 39
-5
59.5%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (-5 Yards) to the Miss 44Similar
Q2 0:28
4TH & 24
OPP 44
0
59.4%
Nik Constantinou punt for 37 yds, downed at the Miss 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
60.2%
Quinshon Judkins run for 4 yds to the Miss 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 1:0461% → 60%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+31
61.2%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Moose Muhammad III for 31 yds to the Miss 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
64.1%
Devon Achane run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 45Similar
Q3 13:58
2ND & 11
OPP 45
0
63.7%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Max WrightSimilar
Q3 13:53
3RD & 11
OPP 45
0
62.1%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Devon AchaneSimilar
Q3 13:53
4TH & 11
OPP 45
-5
60.3%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:53
4TH & 16
50
-5
59.8%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TexAM 45Similar
Q3 13:43
4TH & 21
OWN 45
0
59.5%
Nik Constantinou punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Jordan Watkins at the Miss 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13TD
16 plays · 94 yds · 5:3539% → 58%
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
61.4%
Quinshon Judkins run for no gain to the Miss 6Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 10
OWN 6
-1
61.6%
Quinshon Judkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 5Similar
Q3 12:34
3RD & 11
OWN 5
+12
63.1%
Jaxson Dart run for 12 yds to the Miss 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
61.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the Miss 19Similar
Q3 11:46
2ND & 8
OWN 19
-1
61.5%
Quinshon Judkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 18Similar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 9
OWN 18
+6
63.1%
Dart, Jaxson pass incomplete, PENALTY TEXASAM pass interference 6 yards to the OLEMISS24, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OLEMISS.Similar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
62.3%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+5
62.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 5 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q3 10:45
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+8
63.7%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (8 Yards) to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+56
62.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 56 yds to the TexAM 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
57.9%
Quinshon Judkins run for 6 yds to the TexAM 1Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
58.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 3Similar
Q3 9:14
3RD & 0
OPP 3
+2
58.4%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Face Mask (2 yards) (2 Yards) to the TexAM 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
58.2%
Quinshon Judkins run for no gain to the TexAM 1Similar
Q3 8:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
58.2%
Quinshon Judkins run for no gain to the TexAM 1Similar
Q3 8:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
42.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Casey Kelly for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 14FUMBLE
10 plays · 29 yds · 4:1748% → 45%
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
47.6%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Moose Muhammad III for 4 yds to the TexAM 21Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+16
47.4%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Jalen Preston for 16 yds to the TexAM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
48.9%
Devon Achane run for 5 yds to the TexAM 42Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+5
51.4%
Devon Achane run for 5 yds to the TexAM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
51.5%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, False Start (Reuben Fatheree II) to the TexAM 42Similar
Q3 5:20
1ST & 15
OWN 42
-2
48.7%
Devon Achane run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 40Similar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 17
OWN 40
+1
47.8%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Devon Achane for 1 yd to the TexAM 41Similar
Q3 3:59
3RD & 16
OWN 41
+5
46.1%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Devon Achane for 5 yds to the TexAM 46Similar
Q3 3:28
4TH & 11
OWN 46
+1
44.7%
Nik Constantinou punt for 40 yds , Jordan Watkins returns for 1 yd to the Miss 15 Jordan Watkins fumbled, recovered by Miss Jordan WatkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15TD
9 plays · 85 yds · 2:1256% → 79%
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+28
44.0%
Zach Evans run for 28 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
40.7%
Jaxson Dart run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 42Similar
Q3 2:27
2ND & 11
OWN 42
0
41.5%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Dayton WadeSimilar
Q3 2:18
3RD & 11
OWN 42
+23
43.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Zach Evans for 23 yds to the TexAM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
38.9%
Zach Evans run for 1 yd to the TexAM 34Similar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+18
38.8%
Jaxson Dart run for 18 yds to the TexAM 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+14
38.5%
Zach Evans run for 14 yds to the TexAM 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
21.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 2 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:4926% → 23%
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
25.7%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Devon AchaneSimilar
Q3 0:34
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
25.3%
Devon Achane run for no gain to the TexAM 17Similar
Q3 0:01
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+8
23.8%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Donovan Green for 8 yds to the TexAM 25Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 25
0
23.4%
Nik Constantinou punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jordan Watkins at the Miss 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 17DOWNS
8 plays · 33 yds · 2:4276% → 80%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+13
24.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for 13 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
23.0%
Jaxson Dart run for no gain to the Miss 42Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+16
23.2%
Jaxson Dart run for 16 yds to the TexAM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
22.0%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the TexAM 40Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 8
OPP 40
-5
21.2%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Jayden Williams) to the TexAM 45Similar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 13
OPP 45
0
18.9%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Dayton WadeSimilar
Q4 12:43
3RD & 13
OPP 45
+7
19.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Zach Evans for 7 yds to the TexAM 38Similar
Q4 12:08
4TH & 6
OPP 38
0
20.4%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Jordan WatkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 18TD
6 plays · 62 yds · 2:4222% → 52%
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+17
22.0%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Evan Stewart for 17 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
24.0%
Devon Achane run for 4 yds to the Miss 41Similar
Q4 10:52
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+3
23.8%
Devon Achane run for 3 yds to the Miss 38Similar
Q4 10:04
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+36
20.2%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Evan Stewart for 36 yds to the Miss 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
22.4%
Devon Achane run for no gain to the Miss 2Similar
Q4 9:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
51.9%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Noah Thomas for 2 yds for a TD, (Randy Bond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 19TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:3764% → 91%
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+61
35.9%
Quinshon Judkins run for 61 yds to the TexAM 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+12
30.2%
Quinshon Judkins run for 12 yds to the TexAM 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
30.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the TexAM 1Similar
Q4 7:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
9.5%
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 20DOWNS
8 plays · 33 yds · 1:0815% → 13%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
14.8%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Devon Achane for 5 yds to the TexAM 30Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+15
14.8%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Moose Muhammad III for 15 yds to the TexAM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
15.1%
Conner Weigman run for 13 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
16.3%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Evan StewartSimilar
Q4 6:02
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
15.8%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Evan StewartSimilar
Q4 5:58
3RD & 10
OPP 42
0
15.1%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Moose Muhammad IIISimilar
Q4 5:52
4TH & 10
OPP 42
0
13.3%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Moose Muhammad IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:2092% → 93%
Q4 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
8.5%
Jaxson Dart run for 1 yd to the Miss 43Similar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 9
OWN 43
-1
7.7%
Quinshon Judkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 42Similar
Q4 4:05
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+9
7.7%
Jaxson Dart run for 9 yds to the TexAM 49Similar
Q4 3:32
4TH & 1
OPP 49
-5
6.7%
OLE MISS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Miss 46Similar
Q4 3:21
4TH & 6
OWN 46
+11
6.7%
Fraser Masin punt for 45 yds , Moose Muhammad III returns for 11 yds to the TexAM 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 22TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 1:569% → 39%
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
9.0%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Noah ThomasSimilar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+17
6.8%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Moose Muhammad III for 17 yds to the TexAM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+18
7.2%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Moose Muhammad III for 18 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+17
8.2%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Evan Stewart for 17 yds to the Miss 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
10.3%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Evan StewartSimilar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+8
9.6%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Donovan Green for 8 yds to the Miss 20Similar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+5
7.8%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Evan Stewart for 5 yds to the Miss 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
9.0%
OLE MISS Penalty, Roughing Passer (Tavius Robinson) to the Miss 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
9.0%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Moose Muhammad IIISimilar
Q4 1:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
8.6%
Conner Weigman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
38.9%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Devon Achane for 7 yds for a TD, (Randy Bond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 0:2586% → 88%
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
13.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 2 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
14.6%
Zach Evans run for 5 yds to the Miss 32Similar
Q4 1:05
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
12.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Malik Heath for no gain to the Miss 32Similar
Q4 0:54
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
12.0%
Fraser Masin punt for 60 yds, downed at the TexAM 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 24DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:3319% → 13%
Q4 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
18.9%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Evan StewartSimilar
Q4 0:44
2ND & 10
OWN 8
0
18.3%
Conner Weigman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:33
3RD & 10
OWN 8
+7
17.4%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Devon Achane for 7 yds to the TexAM 15Similar
Q4 0:16
4TH & 3
OWN 15
0
12.8%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Blake SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
4.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:25
Conner Weigman pass complete to Devon Achane for 7 yds for a TD, (Randy Bond KICK)
+30.2
TD · Q4 9:11
Conner Weigman pass complete to Noah Thomas for 2 yds for a TD, (Randy Bond KICK)
+29.6
TD · Q4 7:18
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK)
-20.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com