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ARK

Arkansas 41 at Auburn 27

AUB
2022 · Week 9 · Oct 29, 2022 · Jordan-Hare Stadium
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Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadARK aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of GameTD+2.7AUB 3.1%Robby Ashford pass complete to CamdenBrown for 9 yds for a TD, (AndersCarlson KICK)AWAY 38 - HOME 20 · Q4 5:28
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:28 · Robby Ashford pass complete to Camden Brown for 9 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+54.0+27.00−27.0−54.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 157Home team on offense−34.7Score differential−23.8Pregame prior−1.1Garbage-time factor−14.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−6.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−9.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:27: KJ Jefferson run for 13 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) — ARK win probability +7.5 pts (now 68%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:43: Tank Bigsby run for 41 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +12.7 pts (now 45%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. FG · Q2 2:25: Cam Little 27 yd FG GOOD — ARK win probability +6.0 pts (now 68%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:02: KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 11 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) — ARK win probability +13.7 pts (now 79%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:44: Rashod Dubinion 2 Yd Run (Cam Little Kick) — ARK win probability +14.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 6 of 8ARK made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 13:30ARK 4th & 11 at ARK 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:06AUB 4th & 16 at ARK 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.2%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.4%
    58% to make
    Punt
    41.8%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:55AUB 4th & 4 at ARK 29, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.0%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    42.8%−1.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:19AUB 4th & 6 at AUB 41, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:01AUB 4th & 5 at AUB 46, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:18ARK 4th & 12 at ARK 15, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.7%−1.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:25ARK 4th & 9 at AUB 9, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.6%−1.0
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.6%
    89% to make
    Punt
    52.4%−6.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:14AUB 4th & 1 at AUB 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.8%−1.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:50ARK 4th & 17 at ARK 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.6%−2.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:37AUB 4th & 14 at ARK 35, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%−1.4
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.4%
    45% to make
    Punt
    40.3%−1.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:10AUB 4th & 5 at AUB 43, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.5%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:13AUB 4th & 6 at AUB 29, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−0.6
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:55ARK 4th & 15 at AUB 19, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.2%−0.3
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.6%
    77% to make
    Punt
    97.6%−1.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 1 of 3ARK made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 3:10ARK Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:27ARK Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:43AUB Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:02ARK Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:44ARK Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:35ARK Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:28AUB Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.3%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.4%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:04AUB Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.3%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:3062% → 62%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
37.8%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Intentional Grounding (KJ Jefferson) to the Ark 12Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 23
OWN 12
+5
37.8%
Raheim Sanders run for 5 yds to the Ark 17Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+12
37.8%
Raheim Sanders run for 12 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
-5
37.8%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the Ark 24Similar
Q1 13:30
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
38.4%
Reid Bauer punt for 27 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 2MISSED FG
7 plays · 22 yds · 3:2439% → 39%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
38.5%
Robby Ashford run for 9 yds to the Ark 42Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+8
38.5%
Tank Bigsby run for 8 yds to the Ark 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
38.6%
Damari Alston run for 11 yds to the Ark 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
38.6%
Tank Bigsby run for 3 yds to the Ark 20Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 7
OPP 20
-2
38.6%
Tank Bigsby run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 22Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 9
OPP 22
-7
38.5%
Robby Ashford sacked by Chris Paul Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the Ark 29Similar
Q1 10:06
4TH & 16
OPP 29
+46
39.4%
Anders Carlson 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3FUMBLE
3 plays · 18 yds · 0:5961% → 60%
Q1 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-3
39.4%
Raheim Sanders run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 26Similar
Q1 10:06
2ND & 13
OWN 26
+10
39.5%
Raheim Sanders run for 10 yds to the Ark 36Similar
Q1 9:07
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+11
39.7%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 11 yds Jadon Haselwood fumbled, recovered by Aub Derick HallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 4FG
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:1241% → 42%
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
40.7%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Tank Bigsby for 2 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+7
40.7%
Robby Ashford run for 7 yds to the Ark 38Similar
Q1 9:07
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+3
40.6%
Tank Bigsby run for 3 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
40.8%
Tank Bigsby run for 3 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+3
40.8%
Tank Bigsby run for 3 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q1 9:07
3RD & 4
OPP 29
0
40.6%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:55
4TH & 4
OPP 29
+46
42.3%
Anders Carlson 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:4558% → 61%
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
42.2%
JEFFERSON, KJ pass to the right incomplete intended for THOMPSON, Warren thrown to the ARK44. PENALTY AUB Pass Interference on PRITCHETT, Nehemiah enforced 15 yards to the ARK40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
41.6%
Raheim Sanders run for 5 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+8
41.4%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Bryce Stephens for 8 yds to the Aub 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
41.3%
Raheim Sanders run for 2 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+8
41.3%
Raheim Sanders run for 8 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+29
41.3%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Warren Thompson for 29 yds to the Aub 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
40.9%
Raheim Sanders run for 2 yds to the Aub 6Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
40.9%
Raheim Sanders run for 5 yds to the Aub 1Similar
Q1 3:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
38.9%
KJ Jefferson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:5140% → 40%
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
39.7%
Jarquez Hunter run for 6 yds to the Aub 31Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
40.4%
Robby Ashford run for 3 yds to the Aub 34Similar
Q1 3:10
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
40.1%
Robby Ashford run for 3 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
40.1%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
40.0%
Jarquez Hunter run for 4 yds to the Aub 41Similar
Q1 3:10
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
40.3%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:19
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
39.9%
Oscar Chapman punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 4:3360% → 68%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
40.3%
KJ Jefferson run for 4 yds to the Ark 24Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+1
40.2%
AJ Green run for 1 yd to the Ark 25Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+20
40.7%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 20 yds to the Ark 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
39.3%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
50
+12
39.1%
KJ Jefferson run for 12 yds to the Aub 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
39.0%
GREEN, AJ rush up the middle for a gain of 1 yard to the AUB37 (WOODEN, Colby). PENALTY Before the snap, AUB Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the AUB38 to the AUB33. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 33
0
38.5%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+5
38.5%
JEFFERSON, KJ pass to the left incomplete intended for JACKSON JR., Ketron thrown to the AUB7. PENALTY AUB Offsides on HARRIS, Marcus enforced 5 yards from the AUB33 to the AUB28 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-3
38.5%
AJ Green run for a loss of 3 yards to the Aub 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 31
+14
38.8%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 14 yds to the Aub 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
38.5%
AJ Green run for 1 yd to the Aub 16Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+3
38.5%
KJ Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Aub 13Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 13
0
39.1%
JEFFERSON, KJ pass to the left incomplete intended for LANDERS, Matt thrown to the AUB0. PENALTY AUB Pass Interference on PRITCHETT, Nehemiah ARK Holding on LATHAM, Brady , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:27
3RD & 6
OPP 13
+13
31.6%
KJ Jefferson run for 13 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 3:2633% → 31%
Q2 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
33.1%
Damari Alston run for 4 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q2 10:27
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
33.4%
Jarquez Hunter run for 2 yds to the Aub 31Similar
Q2 10:27
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+10
32.9%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 10 yds to the Aub 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
34.0%
Jarquez Hunter run for 4 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q2 10:27
2ND & 6
OWN 45
-2
34.2%
Tank Bigsby run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 43Similar
Q2 10:27
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+3
33.4%
Robby Ashford run for 3 yds to the Aub 46Similar
Q2 7:01
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
30.5%
Oscar Chapman punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · -2 yds · 1:4369% → 68%
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-10
31.3%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ketron Jackson Jr.) to the Ark 10Similar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 17
OWN 10
0
31.5%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 17
OWN 10
-24
31.5%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Illegal Block (-24 Yards) to the Ark 8Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 19
OWN 8
0
32.1%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:05
3RD & 19
OWN 8
+7
32.5%
Raheim Sanders run for 7 yds to the Ark 15Similar
Q2 5:18
4TH & 12
OWN 15
0
32.1%
Reid Bauer punt for 78 yds, downed at the Aub 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 10TD
5 plays · 93 yds · 1:3530% → 45%
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
30.3%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Tank Bigsby for 4 yds to the Aub 11Similar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 6
OWN 11
0
30.4%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:18
3RD & 6
OWN 11
+34
29.7%
Robby Ashford run for 34 yds to the Aub 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
31.8%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Tank Bigsby for 14 yds to the Ark 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
44.5%
Tank Bigsby run for 41 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 11FG
5 plays · 56 yds · 1:1860% → 68%
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+56
39.9%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Matt Landers for 56 yds to the Aub 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
37.8%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trey Knox for no gain to the Aub 9Similar
Q2 3:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
37.8%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
38.4%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
32.4%
Cam Little 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:1135% → 35%
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
35.2%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
35.1%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Tank Bigsby for 8 yds to the Aub 33Similar
Q2 2:25
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-5
35.8%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (Kilian Zierer) to the Aub 28Similar
Q2 1:21
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+6
34.2%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Tank Bigsby for 6 yds to the Aub 34Similar
Q2 1:14
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
34.7%
Oscar Chapman punt for 24 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · -7 yds · 0:2470% → 64%
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
30.4%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-5
30.9%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the Ark 37Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 15
OWN 37
0
32.5%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 15
OWN 37
-2
32.7%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Derick Hall and Owen Pappoe for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 35Similar
Q2 0:50
4TH & 17
OWN 35
0
33.8%
Reid Bauer punt for 24 ydsSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-10
36.1%
QB Keeper ASHFORD, Robby rush to the right for a gain of 1 yard to the AUB42, out of bounds. PENALTY AUB Holding on TROXELL, Austin enforced 10 yards from the AUB41 to the AUB31 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 14FG
9 plays · 52 yds · 0:4734% → 43%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 20
OWN 31
0
34.1%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 20
OWN 31
+18
34.0%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 18 yds to the Aub 49Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+16
36.8%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Shedrick Jackson for 16 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
39.4%
Robby Ashford run for no gain to the Ark 35Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+4
38.6%
Robby Ashford run for 4 yds to the Ark 31Similar
Q2 0:06
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+24
36.2%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Camden Brown for 24 yds to the Ark 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
42.7%
Anders Carlson 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · 22 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+22
37.8%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Matt Landers for 22 yds to the Ark 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 16MISSED FG
14 plays · 40 yds · 6:2341% → 38%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
40.5%
Robby Ashford run for 1 yd to the Aub 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
40.4%
Robby Ashford run for no gain to the Aub 26Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+12
39.2%
Robby Ashford run for 12 yds to the Aub 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
41.6%
Tank Bigsby run for 1 yd to the Aub 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+8
41.5%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Dazalin Worsham for 8 yds to the Aub 47Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+9
42.9%
Robby Ashford run for 9 yds to the Ark 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
44.0%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 46
0
42.4%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 46
+15
41.3%
Robby Ashford pass complete to John Samuel Shenker for 15 yds to the Ark 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
45.6%
Tank Bigsby run for no gain to the Ark 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+3
45.6%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Tank Bigsby for 3 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 28
-7
43.7%
Robby Ashford sacked by Jordan Domineck for a loss of 7 yards to the Ark 35Similar
Q3 8:37
4TH & 14
OPP 35
+52
39.0%
Anders Carlson 52 yd FG BLOCKED blocked bySimilar
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
38.4%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (Trey Knox) to the Ark 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17TD
9 plays · 64 yds · 2:3561% → 79%
Q3 8:37
1ST & 15
OWN 31
-3
39.5%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Colby Wooden for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 28Similar
Q3 8:37
2ND & 18
OWN 28
+15
40.1%
Raheim Sanders run for 15 yds to the Ark 43Similar
Q3 8:37
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+18
37.5%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Matt Landers for 18 yds to the Aub 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
36.5%
Raheim Sanders run for 12 yds to the Aub 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
35.1%
Raheim Sanders run for 7 yds to the Aub 20Similar
Q3 8:37
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+7
35.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 7 yds to the Aub 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
35.0%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:37
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+2
35.0%
Raheim Sanders run for 2 yds to the Aub 11Similar
Q3 6:02
3RD & 8
OPP 11
+11
21.3%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 11 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:5224% → 22%
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
23.8%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Shedrick Jackson for 13 yds to the Aub 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
25.0%
Robby Ashford run for no gain to the Aub 38Similar
Q3 6:02
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+5
24.8%
Tank Bigsby run for 5 yds to the Aub 43Similar
Q3 6:02
3RD & 5
OWN 43
0
24.6%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:10
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
21.6%
Oscar Chapman punt for 51 yds, downed at the Ark 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19TD
7 plays · 94 yds · 3:2677% → 95%
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+76
23.2%
Raheim Sanders run for 76 yds to the Aub 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
19.9%
Raheim Sanders run for 6 yds to the Aub 12Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+2
19.9%
AJ Green run for 2 yds to the Aub 10Similar
Q3 4:10
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+5
20.6%
KJ Jefferson run for 5 yds to the Aub 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
19.9%
AJ Green run for 1 yd to the Aub 4Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
19.9%
Rashod Dubinion run for 2 yds to the Aub 2Similar
Q3 0:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
5.4%
Rashod Dubinion 2 Yd Run (Cam Little Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:319% → 8%
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
9.3%
Robby Ashford run for 4 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q3 0:44
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-10
9.6%
ASHFORD, Robby pass to the right incomplete thrown to the AUB30; QB hurried by POOL, Bumper. PENALTY AUB Holding on JACKSON, Alec enforced 10 yards from the AUB29 to the AUB19 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+11
8.4%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Koy Moore for 11 yds to the Aub 30Similar
Q4 14:23
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-1
8.3%
Robby Ashford sacked by Myles Slusher for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 29Similar
Q4 14:13
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
7.8%
Oscar Chapman punt for 55 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 21TD
10 plays · 84 yds · 6:3895% → 100%
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
4.6%
Rashod Dubinion run for no gain to the Ark 16Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+19
4.7%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Matt Landers for 19 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
4.6%
AJ Green run for 1 yd to the Ark 36Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+5
4.6%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Hudson Henry for 5 yds to the Ark 41Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+25
4.5%
KJ Jefferson run for 25 yds to the Aub 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+19
4.2%
Ketron Jackson Jr. run for 19 yds to the Aub 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
4.2%
Rashod Dubinion run for 5 yds to the Aub 10Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+5
4.2%
AJ Green run for 5 yds to the Aub 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
4.2%
AJ Green run for 3 yds to the Aub 2Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.3%
Rashod Dubinion run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 22TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:070% → 3%
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
0.3%
Robby Ashford run for 3 yds to the Aub 28Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+36
0.3%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 36 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+17
0.4%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Koy Moore for 17 yds to the Ark 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
0.4%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Camden Brown for 1 yd to the Ark 18Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 9
OPP 18
0
0.4%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:35
3RD & 9
OPP 18
+9
0.4%
Robby Ashford pass complete to John Samuel Shenker for 9 yds to the Ark 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
3.1%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Camden Brown for 9 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 23FG
13 plays · 23 yds · 3:2798% → 100%
Q4 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
1.9%
AJ Green run for 6 yds to the Aub 36Similar
Q4 4:29
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+8
1.5%
AJ Green run for 8 yds to the Aub 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
1.5%
James Jointer run for 4 yds to the Aub 24Similar
Q4 4:29
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+10
1.5%
Isaiah Sategna run for 10 yds to the Aub 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
1.5%
Malik Hornsby run for no gain to the Aub 14Similar
Q4 4:29
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-5
1.5%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Delay Of Game (Malik Hornsby) to the Aub 19Similar
Q4 4:29
2ND & 15
OPP 19
-5
1.6%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the Aub 24Similar
Q4 2:49
2ND & 20
OPP 24
+1
1.2%
James Jointer run for 1 yd to the Aub 23Similar
Q4 2:01
3RD & 19
OPP 23
+4
1.0%
James Jointer run for 4 yds to the Aub 19Similar
Q4 1:55
4TH & 15
OPP 19
+37
0.4%
Cam Little 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 24TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:511% → 4%
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
0.7%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for 2 yds to the Aub 27Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
0.7%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for 1 yd to the Aub 28Similar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+10
0.6%
Robby Ashford run for 10 yds to the Aub 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
0.7%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for 11 yds to the Aub 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+49
0.7%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Camden Brown for 49 yds to the Ark 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
1.1%
Jarquez Hunter run for 1 yd to the Ark 1Similar
Q4 0:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
3.7%
Jarquez Hunter run for 1 yd for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · -9 yds · 0:0199% → 99%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
1.0%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Illegal Substitution (TEAM) to the Ark 43Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 15
OWN 43
0
1.1%
[NHSG] Kneel down by ARK at ARK39 (team loss of 4), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:44
Rashod Dubinion 2 Yd Run (Cam Little Kick)
-14.5
TD · Q3 6:02
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 11 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)
-13.7
TD · Q2 3:43
Tank Bigsby run for 41 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)
+12.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com