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VAN

Vanderbilt 14 at Missouri 17

MIZ
2022 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2022 · Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · MIZ
modelMIZ aheadVAN aheadconfidence bandkey playMIZ scoreVAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:41 · Matt Hayball punt for 57 yds, downed at the Misso 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 32Pregame prior+26.2Home team on offense+2.2Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Time remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:07: CJ Taylor 3 Yd Fumble Return (Will Faris Kick) — VAN win probability +9.1 pts (now 16%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 3:59: Mike Wright pass complete to Gamarion Carter for 80 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK) — VAN win probability +21.3 pts (now 28%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:59: Brady Cook run for 4 yds to the Misso 29 — MIZ win probability +9.4 pts (now 82%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:57: Mike Wright pass complete to Quincy Skinner Jr. for 5 yds to the Vandy 42 — VAN win probability +7.4 pts (now 23%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:18: [NH] Kneel down by MIZ at MIZ43 (team loss of 1). — MIZ win probability +15.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIZ made the numbers' call on 5 of 6VAN made the numbers' call on 11 of 12
  1. Q1 8:42VAN 4th & 8 at MIZ 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.8%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.9%
    62% to make
    Punt
    17.4%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:02VAN 4th & 25 at MIZ 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.5%−0.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:44MIZ 4th & 2 at MIZ 37, up 7
    Close callPunted · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.9%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:41VAN 4th & 10 at VAN 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.5%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:34MIZ 4th & 6 at MIZ 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.9%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.1%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:31VAN 4th & 10 at VAN 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.1%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:26VAN 4th & 10 at midfield, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:52MIZ 4th & 21 at MIZ 12, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%−2.6
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:52VAN 4th & 1 at MIZ 37, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    12.9%−1.4
    40% to make
    Punt
    12.7%−1.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00VAN 4th & 7 at VAN 42, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.9%−0.8
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:38VAN 4th & 12 at MIZ 49, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%−1.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:12VAN 4th & 9 at MIZ 9, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%−1.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.9%
    89% to make
    Punt
    7.8%−7.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:13MIZ 4th & 7 at MIZ 39, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:00VAN 4th & 6 at VAN 30, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.6%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:10VAN 4th & 5 at VAN 47, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.0%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:13MIZ 4th & 5 at VAN 18, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.5%
    79% to make
    Punt
    89.9%−2.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:57MIZ 4th & 7 at MIZ 28, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.7%−2.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:18VAN 4th & 1 at MIZ 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    18.2%−6.0
    27% to make
    Punt
    11.7%−12.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIZ made the numbers' call on 2 of 2VAN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:12MIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:19MIZ Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:07VAN Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 3:59VAN Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.7%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIZDrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:4882% → 82%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.5%
Nathaniel Peat run for no gain to the Misso 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
81.5%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 12 yds to the Misso 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
81.5%
Dominic Lovett run for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 35
-4
81.5%
Brady Cook pass complete to Dominic Lovett for a loss of 4 yards to the Misso 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 31
+5
81.5%
VANDERBILT Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the Misso 36Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+29
81.5%
Brady Cook pass complete to Barrett Banister for 29 yds to the Vandy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
81.6%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 35 yds for a TD, (Harrison Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 2MISSED FG
10 plays · 48 yds · 3:3019% → 19%
Q1 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
81.4%
Ray Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 24Similar
Q1 12:12
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+8
81.4%
AJ Swann pass complete to Ben Bresnahan for 8 yds to the Vandy 32Similar
Q1 12:12
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
81.3%
Ray Davis run for 7 yds to the Vandy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
81.2%
AJ Swann pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:12
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+1
81.3%
AJ Swann pass complete to Quincy Skinner Jr. for 1 yd to the Vandy 40Similar
Q1 12:12
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+31
81.3%
AJ Swann pass complete to Quincy Skinner Jr. for 31 yds to the Misso 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
81.1%
Ray Davis run for 2 yds to the Misso 27Similar
Q1 12:12
2ND & 8
OPP 27
0
81.1%
AJ Swann pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:12
3RD & 8
OPP 27
0
81.2%
AJ Swann pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:42
4TH & 8
OPP 27
+45
81.1%
Joseph Bulovas 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 3INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
81.3%
Brady Cook pass intercepted MISSOURI Penalty, Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on NDOMA-OGAR, EJ ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-15
80.6%
SWANN, AJ pass to the right complete for 23 yards to SHEPPARD, Will caught at the MIZ25 and advanced to the MIZ10 (ABRAMS-DRAINE, Kris). PENALTY VAN Pass Interference on SHEPPARD, Will enforced 15 yards to the MIZ48 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -15 yds · 2:3219% → 19%
Q1 8:34
1ST & 25
OPP 48
-2
81.0%
Ray Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 27
50
-1
81.0%
AJ Swann pass complete to Ray Davis for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 49Similar
Q1 8:34
3RD & 28
OWN 49
+3
81.2%
Ray Davis run for 3 yds to the Misso 48Similar
Q1 6:02
4TH & 25
OPP 48
+29
81.3%
Matt Hayball punt for 48 yds , Luther Burden III returns for 29 yds to the Misso 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1881% → 81%
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
81.2%
Nathaniel Peat run for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 27Similar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 12
OWN 27
0
81.2%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:53
3RD & 12
OWN 27
+10
81.1%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 10 yds to the Misso 37Similar
Q1 4:44
4TH & 2
OWN 37
0
81.2%
Sean Koetting punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0319% → 19%
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
80.9%
Patrick Smith run for no gain to the Vandy 28Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
81.0%
AJ Swann pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:44
3RD & 10
OWN 28
0
81.2%
AJ Swann pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:41
4TH & 10
OWN 28
0
81.3%
Matt Hayball punt for 57 yds, downed at the Misso 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 2:0781% → 81%
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
81.3%
Nathaniel Peat run for no gain to the Misso 15Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+9
81.3%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 9 yds to the Misso 24Similar
Q1 3:41
3RD & 1
OWN 24
-5
81.2%
Brady Cook run for a loss of 5 yards to the Misso 19Similar
Q1 1:34
4TH & 6
OWN 19
+6
80.5%
Jack Stonehouse punt for 40 yds , Will Sheppard returns for 6 yds to the Vandy 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0320% → 19%
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
80.2%
AJ Swann pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:34
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
80.5%
AJ Swann pass complete to Jayden McGowan for no gain to the Vandy 47Similar
Q1 1:34
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
80.7%
AJ Swann pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:31
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
81.3%
Matt Hayball punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 9TD
7 plays · 89 yds · 2:4181% → 87%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
81.1%
Nathaniel Peat run for 4 yds to the Misso 15Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+4
81.1%
Nathaniel Peat run for 4 yds to the Misso 19Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 19
+10
80.8%
Brady Cook pass complete to Cody Schrader for 10 yds to the Misso 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+46
81.3%
Brady Cook pass complete to Tauskie Dove for 46 yds to the Vandy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
82.2%
Cody Schrader run for 3 yds to the Vandy 22Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+12
82.2%
Cody Schrader run for 12 yds to the Vandy 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
86.8%
Luther Burden III run for 10 yds for a TD, (Harrison Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 10PUNT
11 plays · 25 yds · 3:5315% → 14%
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
85.1%
AJ Swann pass complete to Patrick Smith for 9 yds to the Vandy 34Similar
Q2 12:19
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
84.4%
Patrick Smith run for no gain to the Vandy 34Similar
Q2 12:19
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
84.8%
Patrick Smith run for 4 yds to the Vandy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
84.9%
MISSOURI Penalty, Offsides (Ty'Ron Hopper) to the Vandy 43Similar
Q2 12:19
1ST & 5
OWN 43
+2
84.4%
Patrick Smith run for 2 yds to the Vandy 45Similar
Q2 12:19
2ND & 3
OWN 45
0
84.4%
AJ Swann pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:19
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+5
84.4%
AJ Swann pass complete to Jayden McGowan for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
50
0
84.5%
AJ Swann pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 10
50
0
85.6%
AJ Swann pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 10
50
0
85.8%
AJ Swann pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:26
4TH & 10
50
0
86.1%
Matt Hayball punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 2:3487% → 87%
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+18
86.7%
Cody Schrader run for 18 yds to the Misso 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-7
86.9%
Brady Cook sacked by Devin Lee for a loss of 7 yards to the Misso 16Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 17
OWN 16
+5
87.0%
Brady Cook run for 5 yds to the Misso 21Similar
Q2 6:40
3RD & 12
OWN 21
-9
86.7%
Brady Cook sacked by Jaylen Mahoney for a loss of 9 yards to the Misso 12Similar
Q2 5:52
4TH & 21
OWN 12
0
86.5%
Jack Stonehouse punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Will Sheppard at the Vandy 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 12INT
14 plays · 52 yds · 4:4014% → 16%
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
86.3%
Ray Davis run for 1 yd to the Vandy 39Similar
Q2 5:52
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+15
86.4%
AJ Swann pass complete to Gavin Schoenwald for 15 yds to the Misso 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
85.5%
AJ Swann pass complete to Ray Davis for 8 yds to the Misso 38Similar
Q2 5:52
2ND & 2
OPP 38
0
85.5%
AJ Swann pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:52
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+1
85.5%
Ray Davis run for 1 yd to the Misso 37Similar
Q2 5:52
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+4
85.8%
Ray Davis run for 4 yds to the Misso 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
85.1%
AJ Swann pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:52
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
85.1%
AJ Swann pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:52
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+10
86.0%
AJ Swann pass complete to Will Sheppard for 10 yds to the Misso 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
84.9%
AJ Swann pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+4
84.6%
Patrick Smith run for 4 yds to the Misso 19Similar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+9
85.2%
AJ Swann pass complete to Will Sheppard for 9 yds to the Misso 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
84.5%
AJ Swann pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 13FG
14 plays · 59 yds · 1:1189% → 91%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
88.6%
Brady Cook pass complete to Elijah Young for 10 yds to the Misso 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
89.6%
Brady Cook pass complete to Elijah Young for 5 yds to the Misso 35Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
89.7%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+6
89.3%
Brady Cook pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 6 yds to the Misso 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
90.1%
Brady Cook run for 6 yds to the Misso 47Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+4
90.0%
Brady Cook pass complete to Cody Schrader for 4 yds to the Vandy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
90.2%
Brady Cook pass complete to Barrett Banister for 8 yds to the Vandy 41Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 2
OPP 41
0
90.1%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+5
89.8%
VANDERBILT Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the Vandy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
90.2%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+15
89.3%
Brady Cook pass complete to Mookie Cooper for 15 yds to the Vandy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+38
90.8%
Harrison Mevis 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.3%
[NH] Kneel down by VAN at VAN24 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 5:2210% → 8%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
89.8%
Ray Davis run for 1 yd to the Vandy 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+13
89.9%
AJ Swann pass complete to Gavin Schoenwald for 13 yds to the Vandy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
89.2%
AJ Swann pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+1
89.5%
Ray Davis run for 1 yd to the Vandy 40Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+2
89.7%
AJ Swann run for 2 yds to the Vandy 42Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 42
+11
89.8%
Matt Hayball run for 11 yds to the Misso 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
88.7%
AJ Swann pass complete to Ben Bresnahan for 7 yds to the Misso 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 40
-6
88.4%
Patrick Smith run for a loss of 6 yards to the Misso 46Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 46
-3
89.3%
AJ Swann sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the Misso 49Similar
Q3 9:38
4TH & 12
OPP 49
0
91.9%
Matt Hayball punt for 39 yds, downed at the Misso 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 16FUMBLE RETURN TD
3 plays · -7 yds · 1:3193% → 84%
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-4
93.0%
Nathaniel Peat run for a loss of 4 yards to the Misso 6Similar
Q3 9:38
2ND & 14
OWN 6
+5
92.9%
Nathaniel Peat run for 5 yds to the Misso 11Similar
Q3 8:07
3RD & 9
OWN 11
+3
83.8%
CJ Taylor 3 Yd Fumble Return (Will Faris Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 17MISSED FG
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:5519% → 16%
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+12
81.5%
Patrick Smith run for 12 yds to the Misso 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
81.5%
Ray Davis run for 2 yds to the Misso 7Similar
Q3 8:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
81.5%
Mike Wright pass complete to Ben Bresnahan for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 9Similar
Q3 8:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
82.9%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
84.2%
Joseph Bulovas 27 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:5986% → 85%
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
85.6%
Nathaniel Peat run for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 18Similar
Q3 6:12
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+6
85.3%
Brady Cook pass complete to Tyler Stephens for 6 yds to the Misso 24Similar
Q3 6:12
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+12
84.9%
Brady Cook pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 12 yds to the Misso 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
86.1%
Nathaniel Peat run for 2 yds to the Misso 38Similar
Q3 6:12
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+1
86.4%
Nathaniel Peat run for 1 yd to the Misso 39Similar
Q3 6:12
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
85.5%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:13
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
85.2%
Jack Stonehouse punt for 48 yds, downed at the Vandy 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 2:1314% → 13%
Q3 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+13
85.6%
Ray Davis run for 13 yds to the Vandy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
85.4%
Mike Wright pass complete to Jayden McGowan for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 25Similar
Q3 3:13
2ND & 11
OWN 25
-3
85.7%
Ray Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the Vandy 22Similar
Q3 3:13
3RD & 14
OWN 22
0
86.6%
VANDERBILT Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Justin Ball) declinedSimilar
Q3 1:00
4TH & 6
OWN 30
0
87.3%
Matt Hayball punt for 30 yds, downed at the Misso 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 20FUMBLE
9 plays · 40 yds · 3:5288% → 90%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
88.2%
Cody Schrader run for 13 yds to the Vandy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
88.4%
Cody Schrader run for 4 yds to the Vandy 43Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+5
88.9%
VANDERBILT Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the Vandy 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 38
0
88.9%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+2
88.3%
Brady Cook run for 2 yds to the Vandy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
88.9%
Cody Schrader run for 5 yds to the Vandy 31Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+9
89.0%
Cody Schrader run for 9 yds to the Vandy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
89.0%
Cody Schrader run for 2 yds to the Vandy 20Similar
Q4 12:08
2ND & 8
OPP 20
0
89.6%
Nathaniel Peat run for no gain to the Vandy 20 Nathaniel Peat fumbled, recovered by Vandy Anfernee OrjiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 21DOWNS
10 plays · 27 yds · 2:5812% → 10%
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
87.8%
Mike Wright run for 2 yds to the Vandy 22Similar
Q4 12:08
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
87.9%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:08
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+9
88.7%
Mike Wright pass complete to Ben Bresnahan for 9 yds to the Vandy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
86.7%
Mike Wright pass complete to Quincy Skinner Jr. for 9 yds to the Vandy 40Similar
Q4 12:08
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+2
85.6%
Patrick Smith run for 2 yds to the Vandy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
85.9%
VANDERBILT Penalty, False Start (Patrick Smith) to the Vandy 37Similar
Q4 12:08
1ST & 15
OWN 37
+10
87.7%
Mike Wright pass complete to Will Sheppard for 10 yds to the Vandy 47Similar
Q4 12:08
2ND & 5
OWN 47
0
85.4%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:08
3RD & 5
OWN 47
0
85.9%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:10
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
89.6%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 22MISSED FG
11 plays · 28 yds · 4:5790% → 94%
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
90.1%
Brady Cook run for no gain to the Vandy 46Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+5
89.9%
Brady Cook run for 5 yds to the Vandy 41Similar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+7
89.5%
Cody Schrader run for 7 yds to the Vandy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
90.2%
Cody Schrader run for 5 yds to the Vandy 29Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+3
90.2%
Cody Schrader run for 3 yds to the Vandy 26Similar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+3
89.6%
Cody Schrader run for 3 yds to the Vandy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
90.2%
Cody Schrader run for 1 yd to the Vandy 22Similar
Q4 4:58
2ND & 9
OPP 22
-2
94.5%
Brady Cook pass complete to Dominic Lovett for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 24Similar
Q4 4:58
3RD & 11
OPP 24
+6
93.9%
Brady Cook run for 6 yds to the Vandy 18Similar
Q4 4:13
4TH & 5
OPP 18
+36
93.7%
Harrison Mevis 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 23TD
1 play · 80 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
72.4%
Mike Wright pass complete to Gamarion Carter for 80 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:0282% → 84%
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
81.8%
Brady Cook run for 4 yds to the Misso 29Similar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-1
85.3%
Cody Schrader run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 28Similar
Q4 3:11
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
83.5%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:57
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+3
84.4%
Jack Stonehouse punt for 38 yds , Will Sheppard returns for 3 yds to the Vandy 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 25DOWNS
7 plays · 19 yds · 1:3923% → 24%
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
77.0%
Mike Wright pass complete to Quincy Skinner Jr. for 5 yds to the Vandy 42Similar
Q4 2:57
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+5
74.2%
WRIGHT, Mike pass to the right incomplete intended for CARTER, Gamarion broken up by ABRAMS-DRAINE, Kris at the VAN47. PENALTY MIZ Pass Interference on ABRAMS-DRAINE, Kris enforced at the spot of the foul for 5 yards to the VAN47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
74.4%
Ray Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 46Similar
Q4 2:57
2ND & 11
OWN 46
0
76.5%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:23
3RD & 11
OWN 46
+10
80.2%
Mike Wright pass complete to Ben Bresnahan for 10 yds to the Misso 44Similar
Q4 1:18
4TH & 1
OPP 44
0
76.0%
Ray Davis run for no gain to the Misso 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 26END OF 4TH QUARTER
2 plays · -2 yds · 1:1892% → 95%
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
91.7%
[NH] Kneel down by MIZ at MIZ43 (team loss of 1).Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 43
0
95.3%
[NH] Kneel down by MIZ at MIZ42 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:59
Mike Wright pass complete to Gamarion Carter for 80 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)
-21.3
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:18
[NH] Kneel down by MIZ at MIZ43 (team loss of 1).
+15.7
KEY PLAY · Q4 3:59
Brady Cook run for 4 yds to the Misso 29
+9.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com