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AUB

Auburn 34 at Ole Miss 48

MISS
2022 · Week 7 · Oct 15, 2022 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadAUB aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreAUB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:31 · Fraser Masin punt for 52 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 20Pregame prior+28.9Home team on offense+0.3Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Time remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:22: Robby Ashford run for 2 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +6.3 pts (now 16%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:24: Tank Bigsby run for 2 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +6.1 pts (now 22%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 13:34: Tank Bigsby run for 50 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +12.5 pts (now 28%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q3 6:40: Quinshon Judkins run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK) — MISS win probability +6.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:30: Robby Ashford run for 11 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +12.9 pts (now 25%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 4 of 6AUB made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 12:53MISS 4th & 1 at AUB 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    84.2%−0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    83.8%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:24AUB 4th & 13 at AUB 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:31MISS 4th & 4 at MISS 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 82.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:19AUB 4th & 12 at AUB 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%−0.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:13MISS 4th & 6 at MISS 36, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.0%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:21AUB 4th & 12 at AUB 18, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%−0.9
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:00AUB 4th & 2 at MISS 25, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.4%−0.5
    66% to make
    Punt
    9.7%−3.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:46MISS 4th & 5 at AUB 5, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.5%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.6%
    92% to make
    Punt
    72.3%−6.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:24MISS 4th & 1 at MISS 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    84.5%−2.4
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:28MISS 4th & 3 at AUB 23, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 87.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.1%−0.8
    70% to make
    Punt
    79.8%−8.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:05AUB 4th & 11 at MISS 11, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.6%
    87% to make
    Punt
    5.5%−5.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:01AUB 4th & 7 at AUB 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.0%
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.6%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:17AUB 4th & 4 at AUB 42, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.9%−0.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:34AUB 4th & 10 at AUB 47, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.0%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.7%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 5 of 6AUB made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 6:42MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:43MISS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:36MISS Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:22AUB Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:24AUB Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:52MISS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 13:34AUB Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 6:40MISS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 2:30AUB Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 6:26MISS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1DOWNS
10 plays · 46 yds · 2:0282% → 81%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
81.8%
Zach Evans run for 3 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
81.8%
Zach Evans run for 6 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q1 14:27
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
81.7%
Jaxson Dart run for 2 yds to the Miss 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
81.7%
Zach Evans run for 5 yds to the Miss 41Similar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+22
81.6%
Jaxson Dart run for 22 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
81.6%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+8
81.5%
Jaxson Dart run for 8 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q1 13:05
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+1
81.5%
Jaxson Dart run for 1 yd to the Aub 28Similar
Q1 12:53
4TH & 1
OPP 28
-1
81.4%
Jaxson Dart run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:1919% → 19%
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
81.2%
Tank Bigsby run for 11 yds to the Aub 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
81.0%
Tank Bigsby run for 1 yd to the Aub 41Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+5
80.7%
Robby Ashford pass complete to John Samuel Shenker for 5 yds to the Aub 46Similar
Q1 10:37
3RD & 4
OWN 46
-9
80.4%
Robby Ashford sacked by Tavius Robinson for a loss of 9 yards to the Aub 37Similar
Q1 10:24
4TH & 13
OWN 37
0
80.7%
Oscar Chapman punt for 57 yds, downed at the Miss 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 42 yds · 1:4681% → 80%
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+36
80.5%
Dayton Wade run for 36 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
80.8%
Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the Miss 45Similar
Q1 9:38
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+5
80.8%
Quinshon Judkins run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:32
3RD & 2
50
-2
80.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 48 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Miss Jaxson DartSimilar
Q1 8:31
4TH & 4
OWN 48
0
80.1%
Fraser Masin punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 4INT
4 plays · 25 yds · 1:1520% → 21%
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
79.9%
Tank Bigsby run for 12 yds to the Aub 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
79.7%
OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Aub 37Similar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 5
OWN 37
+8
79.3%
Tank Bigsby run for 8 yds to the Aub 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
79.0%
Robby Ashford pass intercepted AJ Finley return for no gain to the Aub 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5TD
2 plays · 46 yds · 0:2080% → 82%
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
80.1%
Dayton Wade run for 11 yds to the Aub 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
82.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 35 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:1619% → 18%
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
81.5%
Robby Ashford run for a loss of 9 yards to the Aub 16 Robby Ashford fumbled, recovered by AubSimilar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+7
81.5%
Robby Ashford run for 7 yds to the Aub 23Similar
Q1 5:27
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
81.7%
Robby Ashford pass incomplete to Ja'Varrius JohnsonSimilar
Q1 5:19
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
81.8%
Oscar Chapman punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jordan Watkins at the Miss 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 2:3082% → 85%
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
81.6%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the Miss 37Similar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+7
81.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 7 yds to the Miss 44Similar
Q1 4:40
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+3
81.8%
Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
82.0%
Jaxson Dart sacked by Zion Puckett for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 45Similar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+13
81.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Casey Kelly for 13 yds to the Aub 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
82.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for 5 yds to the Aub 37Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 5
OPP 37
-10
82.1%
OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Aub 47Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 15
OPP 47
+24
81.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 24 yds to the Aub 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
82.1%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:43
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+23
85.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Zach Evans for 23 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 8FUMBLE
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:1616% → 15%
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
83.8%
Jarquez Hunter run for 2 yds to the Aub 27Similar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
83.8%
Jarquez Hunter run for 2 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q1 1:09
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-7
84.6%
T.J. Finley sacked by Tavius Robinson for a loss of 7 yards to the Aub 22 T.J. Finley fumbled, recovered by Miss Jared Ivey , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9TD
5 plays · 22 yds · 1:1986% → 90%
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
86.0%
Dayton Wade run for 5 yds to the Aub 17Similar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+6
86.1%
Zach Evans run for 6 yds to the Aub 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
86.3%
Zach Evans run for 5 yds to the Aub 6Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+3
86.3%
Zach Evans run for 3 yds to the Aub 3Similar
Q2 14:36
3RD & 2
OPP 3
+3
90.0%
Zach Evans run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 10TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:1010% → 16%
Q2 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
89.9%
Tank Bigsby run for 2 yds to the Aub 27Similar
Q2 14:07
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
90.1%
Tank Bigsby run for 10 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-3
90.1%
Robby Ashford run for a loss of 3 yards to the Aub 34Similar
Q2 13:08
2ND & 13
OWN 34
-10
90.6%
AUBURN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Aub 24Similar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 23
OWN 24
+8
90.9%
Robby Ashford run for 8 yds to the Aub 32Similar
Q2 12:12
3RD & 15
OWN 32
+46
91.2%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Koy Moore for 46 yds to the Miss 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
90.2%
Tank Bigsby run for 2 yds to the Miss 20Similar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 8
OPP 20
-1
90.3%
Tank Bigsby run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 21Similar
Q2 10:33
3RD & 9
OPP 21
+19
91.1%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Omari Kelly for 19 yds to the Miss 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
83.8%
Robby Ashford run for 2 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5586% → 86%
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
86.1%
JJ Henry run for 2 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+2
86.0%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the Miss 36Similar
Q2 9:21
3RD & 6
OWN 36
0
86.0%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:13
4TH & 6
OWN 36
0
85.7%
Fraser Masin punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Keionte Scott at the Aub 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 12TD
8 plays · 76 yds · 3:3914% → 22%
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
85.8%
Tank Bigsby run for 4 yds to the Aub 28Similar
Q2 8:49
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+4
85.6%
Tank Bigsby run for 4 yds to the Aub 32Similar
Q2 8:08
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+3
85.6%
Tank Bigsby run for 13 yds to the Aub 45 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Aub 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
85.7%
Damari Alston run for 12 yds to the Aub 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
85.4%
Jarquez Hunter run for 2 yds to the Aub 49Similar
Q2 6:31
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+48
85.6%
Jarquez Hunter run for 48 yds to the Miss 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
84.3%
Jarquez Hunter run for 1 yd to the Miss 2Similar
Q2 5:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
78.2%
Tank Bigsby run for 2 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13TD
10 plays · 60 yds · 2:1982% → 88%
Q2 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+24
82.3%
Quinshon Judkins run for 24 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
82.6%
Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the Aub 33Similar
Q2 4:32
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+4
82.8%
Quinshon Judkins run for 4 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q2 4:12
3RD & 3
OPP 29
0
82.2%
Quinshon Judkins run for no gain to the Aub 29Similar
Q2 3:55
4TH & 3
OPP 29
+15
81.3%
AUBURN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Aub 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
82.8%
AUBURN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (7 Yards) to the Aub 7Similar
Q2 3:50
1ST & 3
OPP 7
+3
82.8%
Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the Aub 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-3
82.8%
Jordan Watkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the Aub 7Similar
Q2 2:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
88.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Quinshon Judkins for 7 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:1713% → 13%
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
86.9%
Tank Bigsby run for 2 yds to the Aub 22Similar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+6
87.3%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 6 yds to the Aub 28Similar
Q2 1:34
3RD & 2
OWN 28
-10
87.1%
Robby Ashford sacked by Otis Reese for a loss of 10 yards to the Aub 18Similar
Q2 1:21
4TH & 12
OWN 18
+4
87.2%
Oscar Chapman punt for 49 yds , Jordan Watkins returns for 4 yds to the Miss 22 OLE MISS Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Miss 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
88.5%
Jaxson Dart pass intercepted Keionte Scott return for no gain to the Miss 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 16END OF HALF
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0316% → 15%
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
84.1%
Tank Bigsby run for 1 yd to the Miss 32Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+7
84.4%
Robby Ashford run for 7 yds to the Miss 25Similar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 2
OPP 25
0
85.4%
Tank Bigsby run for no gain to the Miss 25Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 2
OPP 25
+42
84.6%
Anders Carlson 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:1915% → 28%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
84.9%
Damari Alston run for 2 yds to the Aub 27Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+23
84.8%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Jay Fair for 23 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
50
+50
72.4%
Tank Bigsby run for 50 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18FG
14 plays · 73 yds · 3:3576% → 82%
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
75.7%
Jaxson Dart run for 15 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+18
76.4%
Zach Evans run for 18 yds to the Aub 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
77.7%
Zach Evans run for 15 yds to the Aub 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
78.2%
Zach Evans run for 3 yds to the Aub 27Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+6
78.1%
Jaxson Dart run for 6 yds to the Aub 21Similar
Q3 11:44
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+4
77.1%
Zach Evans run for 4 yds to the Aub 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
78.0%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Malik HeathSimilar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+7
78.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 7 yds to the Aub 10Similar
Q3 10:49
3RD & 3
OPP 10
+3
79.0%
Zach Evans run for 3 yds to the Aub 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
80.0%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Jonathan MingoSimilar
Q3 10:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
80.0%
Zach Evans run for 2 yds to the Aub 5Similar
Q3 9:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
79.0%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Jonathan MingoSimilar
Q3 9:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
82.3%
Jonathan Cruz 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 19TD
10 plays · 54 yds · 2:5484% → 92%
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
83.7%
Quinshon Judkins run for 8 yds to the OLEMISS 46 OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Miss 44Similar
Q3 9:17
1ST & 12
OWN 44
+2
83.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the Miss 46Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+1
83.2%
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the Miss 47Similar
Q3 8:41
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+12
82.5%
Jaxson Dart run for 12 yds to the Aub 41 Jaxson Dart fumbled, recovered by MissSimilar
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
84.1%
Jaxson Dart run for 5 yds to the Aub 36Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+2
84.9%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the Aub 34Similar
Q3 7:05
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+22
84.4%
Jaxson Dart run for 22 yds to the Aub 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
85.2%
Quinshon Judkins run for 7 yds to the Aub 5Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+5
91.9%
Quinshon Judkins run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 20TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:0311% → 25%
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
89.4%
Tank Bigsby run for 1 yd to the Aub 26Similar
Q3 5:52
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
89.6%
Tank Bigsby run for 2 yds to the Aub 28Similar
Q3 5:16
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+32
89.9%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Luke Deal for 32 yds to the Miss 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
88.6%
Tank Bigsby run for 5 yds to the Miss 35Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+3
87.5%
Jarquez Hunter run for 3 yds to the Miss 32Similar
Q3 3:34
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+22
89.1%
Robby Ashford run for 22 yds to the Miss 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
88.4%
Jarquez Hunter run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 11Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
75.5%
Robby Ashford run for 11 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 21FG
18 plays · 52 yds · 4:5784% → 90%
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.0%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
83.8%
Zach Evans run for 4 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q3 1:58
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+9
83.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 9 yds to the Miss 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
85.2%
Zach Evans run for 9 yds to the Miss 47Similar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 1
OWN 47
-5
85.9%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Miss 42Similar
Q3 1:10
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+3
87.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the Miss 45Similar
Q3 0:52
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+2
86.3%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the Miss 47Similar
Q3 0:24
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+2
85.8%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the Miss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
88.1%
Dayton Wade run for 11 yds to the Aub 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:32
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
88.4%
Quinshon Judkins run for 7 yds to the Aub 33Similar
Q4 14:21
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+1
88.6%
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the Aub 32Similar
Q4 13:51
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+2
87.8%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the Aub 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
88.9%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Casey KellySimilar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+5
88.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 5 yds to the Aub 25Similar
Q4 12:56
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+2
88.4%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the Aub 23Similar
Q4 12:28
4TH & 3
OPP 23
+42
89.6%
Jonathan Cruz 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 22FG
9 plays · 64 yds · 3:1211% → 16%
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+50
89.4%
Tank Bigsby run for 50 yds to the Miss 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
85.9%
Jarquez Hunter run for 1 yd to the Miss 24Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+20
86.1%
Jarquez Hunter run for 20 yds to the Miss 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
86.1%
Jarquez Hunter run for 2 yds to the Miss 2Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-4
87.3%
Robby Ashford run for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 6Similar
Q4 9:38
3RD & 0
OPP 6
-5
88.4%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Miss 11Similar
Q4 9:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
89.5%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+28
84.5%
Anders Carlson 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 23TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:3089% → 97%
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
89.4%
Quinshon Judkins run for 8 yds to the Miss 33Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
90.0%
Jaxson Dart run for 6 yds to the Miss 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
90.9%
Zach Evans run for 9 yds to the Miss 48Similar
Q4 7:46
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+2
91.4%
Zach Evans run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:29
1ST & 10
50
-6
91.6%
Zach Evans run for 4 yds to the OLEMISS 46 OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Miss 44Similar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 16
OWN 44
0
91.8%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Jonathan MingoSimilar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 16
OWN 44
+15
91.5%
Jaxson Dart run for 15 yds to the Aub 41Similar
Q4 6:26
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+41
97.2%
Quinshon Judkins run for 41 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 24INT
14 plays · 22 yds · 3:474% → 2%
Q4 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
96.3%
Robby Ashford run for 2 yds to the Aub 27Similar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
96.3%
Robby Ashford run for 1 yd to the Aub 28Similar
Q4 5:11
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
96.5%
Robby Ashford pass incomplete to Ja'Varrius JohnsonSimilar
Q4 5:01
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+8
96.6%
Robby Ashford run for 8 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
97.1%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 4 yds to the Aub 40Similar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+2
97.1%
Robby Ashford run for 2 yds to the Aub 42Similar
Q4 3:23
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
97.3%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:17
4TH & 4
OWN 42
+5
97.5%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for 5 yds to the Aub 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
97.4%
Robby Ashford pass incomplete to Koy MooreSimilar
Q4 2:49
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
97.5%
Robby Ashford pass incomplete to Shedrick JacksonSimilar
Q4 2:44
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
97.5%
Robby Ashford pass incomplete to Camden BrownSimilar
Q4 2:34
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
97.7%
Robby Ashford pass intercepted Deantre Prince return for no gain to the Miss 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 25END OF GAME
6 plays · 26 yds · 1:5998% → 99%
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
98.3%
Jaxson Dart run for 4 yds to the Miss 41Similar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+4
98.6%
Zach Evans run for 4 yds to the Miss 45Similar
Q4 1:39
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+20
98.6%
Zach Evans run for 20 yds to the Aub 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
98.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 36Similar
Q4 0:26
2ND & 11
OPP 36
-1
98.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:30
Robby Ashford run for 11 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)
-12.9
TD · Q3 13:34
Tank Bigsby run for 50 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)
-12.5
TD · Q3 6:40
Quinshon Judkins run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK)
+6.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com