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ARK

Arkansas 52 at BYU 35

BYU
2022 · Week 7 · Oct 15, 2022 · LaVell Edwards Stadium
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Win probability · BYU
modelBYU aheadARK aheadconfidence bandkey playBYU scoreARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:20 · Jacob Conover run for 5 yds to the BYU 6
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingOne-score game
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:53: Puka Nacua run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK) ARKANSAS Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) declined — BYU win probability +20.6 pts (now 53%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  2. TD · Q3 9:20: KJ Jefferson pass complete to Matt Landers for 39 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) — ARK win probability +12.3 pts (now 70%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:11: Jaren Hall pass complete to Puka Nacua for 33 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK) — BYU win probability +22.5 pts (now 53%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  4. TD · Q3 1:13: KJ Jefferson pass complete to Matt Landers for 5 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) — ARK win probability +16.0 pts (now 78%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:25: Raheim Sanders run for 64 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) — ARK win probability +16.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BYU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5ARK made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 12:10BYU 4th & 7 at ARK 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    54.5%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:36ARK 4th & 10 at ARK 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:04BYU 4th & 8 at ARK 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.3%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    55.3%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    55.1%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:46ARK 4th & 3 at BYU 16, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.6%−0.6
    81% to make
    Punt
    30.1%−6.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:18BYU 4th & 1 at BYU 34, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    58.9%−1.1
    average punt
  6. Q4 15:00BYU 4th & 9 at BYU 26, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.9%−1.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.6%
    average punt
  7. Q4 10:29BYU 4th & 8 at ARK 32, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.8%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    7.0%
    51% to make
    Punt
    6.0%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q4 0:27ARK 4th & 1 at BYU 1, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    97.6%−0.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    96.5%−1.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BYU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5ARK made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 5:39BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:37ARK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:11BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    59.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:19ARK Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:48BYU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    60.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    60.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 3:39ARK Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:40ARK Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 9:53BYU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 9:20ARK Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 5:11BYU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q3 1:13ARK Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 14:25ARK Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1FUMBLE
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:0950% → 50%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
50.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Matt Landers for 6 yds to the Ark 31Similar
Q1 14:23
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
50.0%
KJ Jefferson run for 1 yd to the Ark 32Similar
Q1 14:01
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+13
50.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 13 yds to the Ark 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
50.0%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Jadon HaselwoodSimilar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+3
50.1%
Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds to the Ark 48 Raheim Sanders fumbled, recovered by BYU Keenan PiliSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5451% → 51%
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
50.6%
Christopher Brooks run for no gain to the Ark 48Similar
Q1 12:46
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+3
50.6%
Puka Nacua run for 3 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q1 12:19
3RD & 7
OPP 45
0
50.7%
Jaren Hall pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:10
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
50.5%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 44 yds, downed at the Ark 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 1:2650% → 49%
Q1 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+11
50.5%
Raheim Sanders run for 11 yds to the Ark 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
50.5%
Raheim Sanders run for 8 yds to the Ark 20Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 2
OWN 20
+5
50.5%
Raheim Sanders run for 5 yds to the Ark 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
50.6%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Ketron Jackson Jr.Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
50.6%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Matt LandersSimilar
Q1 10:49
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
50.8%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Trey KnoxSimilar
Q1 10:36
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+5
51.0%
Reid Bauer punt for 62 yds , Hobbs Nyberg returns for 5 yds to the BYU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 4TD
13 plays · 82 yds · 4:5051% → 55%
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
50.7%
Puka Nacua run for 2 yds to the BYU 20Similar
Q1 9:51
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+10
50.8%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Kody Epps for 10 yds to the BYU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
51.1%
Hall, Jaren pass incomplete to Roberts, Chase, PENALTY ARKANSAS pass interference (McGlothern, Dwight) 15 yards to the BYU45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BYU.Similar
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
51.6%
Puka Nacua run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 5
50
0
51.7%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Mason FakahuaSimilar
Q1 8:05
3RD & 4
50
+13
51.6%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Keanu Hill for 13 yds to the Ark 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
51.9%
Jaren Hall run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 38 Jaren Hall fumbled, recovered by BYU Jaren HallSimilar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 11
OPP 38
+3
52.0%
Christopher Brooks run for 3 yds to the Ark 35Similar
Q1 6:13
3RD & 8
OPP 35
0
52.2%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Kody EppsSimilar
Q1 6:04
4TH & 8
OPP 35
+31
51.4%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Puka Nacua for 31 yds to the Ark 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
55.9%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Isaac Rex for 4 yds for a TD, (Justen Smith KICK)Similar
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
55.0%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Dwight McGlothern) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:5145% → 51%
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
55.0%
AJ Green run for 8 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q1 5:06
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
54.4%
KJ Jefferson run for no gain to the Ark 33Similar
Q1 4:43
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
55.1%
KJ Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
55.0%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Bryce StephensSimilar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+15
55.4%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to AJ Green for 15 yds to the BYU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
54.5%
AJ Green run for 4 yds to the BYU 45Similar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+24
54.7%
Raheim Sanders run for 24 yds to the BYU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
53.9%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Matt Landers for 6 yds to the BYU 15Similar
Q1 2:37
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+15
49.0%
Raheim Sanders run for 15 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 6TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:2052% → 57%
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
51.9%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Puka Nacua for 18 yds to the BYU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
53.1%
Hall, Jaren pass incomplete to Nacua, Puka, PENALTY ARKANSAS pass interference (Chavis, Malik) 15 yards to the ARKANSAS42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BYU.Similar
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
53.6%
Hall, Jaren pass incomplete to Cosper, Brayden, PENALTY ARKANSAS pass interference (McGlothern, Dwight) 15 yards to the ARKANSAS27, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BYU.Similar
Q1 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
53.9%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Ethan EricksonSimilar
Q1 1:28
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+6
53.9%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Chase Roberts for 6 yds to the Ark 21Similar
Q1 1:11
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+21
57.3%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Kody Epps for 21 yds for a TD, (Justen Smith PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:3945% → 52%
Q1 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
55.3%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for 17 yds to the Ark 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
54.5%
Rashod Dubinion run for no gain to the Ark 42Similar
Q1 0:12
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+11
54.9%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 11 yds to the BYU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
53.9%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Matt Landers for 13 yds to the BYU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
53.2%
KJ Jefferson run for no gain to the BYU 34Similar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+3
53.3%
Rashod Dubinion run for 3 yds to the BYU 31Similar
Q2 13:47
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+18
54.3%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Matt Landers for 18 yds to the BYU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
53.2%
KJ Jefferson run for 4 yds to the BYU 9Similar
Q2 12:41
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+3
53.3%
Jadon Haselwood run for 3 yds to the BYU 6Similar
Q2 12:19
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+6
48.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trey Knox for 6 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 8TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:1351% → 62%
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
51.0%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Keanu Hill for 15 yds to the BYU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
52.7%
BYU Penalty, False Start (Kingsley Suamataia) to the BYU 35Similar
Q2 11:24
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+15
51.0%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Puka Nacua for 30 yds to the ARKANSAS 35 for a 1ST down BYU Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Puka Nacua) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
50
+10
53.3%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Brayden Cosper for 10 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
53.6%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Kody EppsSimilar
Q2 10:27
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+37
53.5%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Kody Epps for 37 yds to the Ark 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
54.4%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Kody Epps for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 5Similar
Q2 9:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
62.4%
Puka Nacua run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jaren Hall pass to Keanu Hill for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9FG
11 plays · 59 yds · 2:5740% → 45%
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
59.9%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Matt LandersSimilar
Q2 9:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+22
60.2%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trey Knox for 22 yds to the Ark 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
58.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 14 yds to the BYU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
57.8%
Raheim Sanders run for 6 yds to the BYU 33Similar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+2
56.6%
KJ Jefferson run for 2 yds to the BYU 31Similar
Q2 8:21
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+8
58.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 8 yds to the BYU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
57.3%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jaedon Wilson for 2 yds to the BYU 21Similar
Q2 7:22
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+5
57.5%
Raheim Sanders run for 5 yds to the BYU 16Similar
Q2 6:50
3RD & 3
OPP 16
0
59.0%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Bryce StephensSimilar
Q2 6:46
4TH & 3
OPP 16
+34
54.6%
Cam Little 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 10FUMBLE
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2258% → 57%
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
57.6%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Mason FakahuaSimilar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
57.3%
Mason Fakahua run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 23Similar
Q2 5:51
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+11
56.5%
Jaren Hall run for 11 yds to the BYU 34Similar
Q2 5:18
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
56.8%
Jaren Hall run for no gain to the BYU 34 Jaren Hall fumbled, recovered by Ark Latavious BriniSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 11TD
5 plays · 34 yds · 1:1947% → 57%
Q2 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
52.9%
Raheim Sanders run for 1 yd to the BYU 33Similar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+14
53.0%
AJ Green run for 14 yds to the BYU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-15
52.6%
Jefferson, KJ rush for no gain to the BYU19, PENALTY ARKANSAS personal foul (Bax, Nathan) 15 yards to the BYU34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:52
1ST & 25
OPP 34
+30
53.5%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to AJ Green for 30 yds to the BYU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
43.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Matt Landers for 4 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 12INT
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:0747% → 50%
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
47.4%
Christopher Brooks run for 3 yds to the BYU 28Similar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
47.4%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Kody EppsSimilar
Q2 2:44
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+12
45.7%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Kody Epps for 12 yds to the BYU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
49.6%
Jaren Hall pass intercepted Hudson Clark return for no gain to the Ark 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13TD
8 plays · 68 yds · 1:3355% → 67%
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
45.5%
Rashod Dubinion run for 11 yds to the Ark 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
43.4%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 42Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 11
OWN 42
0
44.0%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Trey KnoxSimilar
Q2 1:03
3RD & 11
OWN 42
+36
45.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trey Knox for 36 yds to the BYU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
40.5%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Ketron Jackson Jr.Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+7
40.9%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 7 yds to the BYU 15Similar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+15
32.7%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for 15 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 14END OF HALF
6 plays · 45 yds · 0:2034% → 34%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
33.8%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Puka Nacua for 3 yds to the BYU 28Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+20
33.2%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Kody Epps for 20 yds to the BYU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
35.0%
Jaren Hall pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+22
34.3%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Keanu Hill for 22 yds Keanu Hill fumbled, forced by Drew Sanders, recovered by BYU Blake Freeland for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 15TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:5634% → 53%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
34.4%
Christopher Brooks run for 9 yds to the BYU 34Similar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+14
35.4%
Christopher Brooks run for 14 yds to the BYU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
35.6%
Christopher Brooks run for 6 yds to the Ark 46Similar
Q3 13:14
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+10
36.1%
Christopher Brooks run for 10 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
35.4%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Kody Epps for 9 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 1
OPP 27
+5
36.5%
Mason Fakahua run for 5 yds to the Ark 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
36.3%
Mason Fakahua run for no gain to the Ark 22Similar
Q3 10:47
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
35.9%
Jaren Hall pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:18
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+6
34.1%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Puka Nacua for 6 yds to the Ark 16Similar
Q3 10:02
4TH & 4
OPP 16
+13
32.1%
Hall, Jaren pass incomplete to Cosper, Brayden, PENALTY ARKANSAS pass interference 13 yards to the ARKANSAS3, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BYU.Similar
Q3 9:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
52.7%
Puka Nacua run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK) ARKANSAS Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 16TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:2555% → 70%
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
44.9%
AJ Green run for 6 yds to the Ark 31 for a 1ST down BYU Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Max Tooley) to the Ark 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
42.3%
Jefferson, KJ pass incomplete to Thompson, Warren, PENALTY BYU pass interference (Robinson, Jakob) 15 yards to the BYU39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARKANSAS.Similar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
30.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Matt Landers for 39 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 17TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:0331% → 53%
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
30.9%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Puka NacuaSimilar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
30.7%
Christopher Brooks run for 9 yds to the BYU 34Similar
Q3 8:50
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
31.0%
Jaren Hall run for 1 yd to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
31.0%
Mason Fakahua run for 1 yd to the BYU 36Similar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+10
30.8%
Jaren Hall run for 10 yds to the BYU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
31.9%
Mason Fakahua run for 5 yds to the Ark 49Similar
Q3 6:11
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+2
30.9%
Mason Fakahua run for 2 yds to the Ark 47Similar
Q3 5:57
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+3
30.4%
Mason Fakahua run for 3 yds to the Ark 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+11
30.8%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Keanu Hill for 11 yds to the Ark 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
53.3%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Puka Nacua for 33 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 3:5356% → 78%
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
43.7%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Jadon Haselwood ARKANSAS Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
43.5%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Ketron Jackson Jr.Similar
Q3 4:36
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+30
45.2%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 30 yds to the BYU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
40.2%
Jefferson, KJ pass incomplete to Haselwood, Jadon, PENALTY ARKANSAS holding 10 yards to the ARKANSAS45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:18
1ST & 20
OWN 45
+5
42.2%
Raheim Sanders run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:57
2ND & 15
50
+7
41.8%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Warren Thompson for 7 yds to the BYU 43Similar
Q3 3:38
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+8
40.6%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Matt Landers for 8 yds to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
38.6%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Bryce Stephens for 7 yds to the BYU 28Similar
Q3 3:02
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+6
38.4%
Raheim Sanders run for 6 yds to the BYU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+12
38.3%
Raheim Sanders run for 12 yds to the BYU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
38.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trey Knox for 2 yds to the BYU 8Similar
Q3 1:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
38.0%
Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds to the BYU 5Similar
Q3 1:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
22.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Matt Landers for 5 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0825% → 23%
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
25.4%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Kody EppsSimilar
Q3 0:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
25.2%
Christopher Brooks run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 24Similar
Q3 0:19
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+2
23.5%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Isaac Rex for 2 yds to the BYU 26Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
22.7%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Bryce Stephens at the Ark 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 20TD
2 plays · 68 yds · 0:2376% → 93%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
23.6%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Raheim Sanders for 4 yds to the Ark 36Similar
Q4 14:25
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+64
6.7%
Raheim Sanders run for 64 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 21FUMBLE
12 plays · 49 yds · 3:4412% → 7%
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
11.6%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Christopher Brooks for 7 yds to the BYU 32Similar
Q4 13:39
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
9.9%
Puka Nacua run for 2 yds to the BYU 34Similar
Q4 13:12
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
9.8%
Jaren Hall run for 2 yds to the BYU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
9.4%
Christopher Brooks run for no gain to the BYU 36Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
8.5%
Jaren Hall pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:58
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+16
7.8%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Kody Epps for 16 yds to the Ark 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+14
8.4%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Puka Nacua for 14 yds to the Ark 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
9.1%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Chase RobertsSimilar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+2
9.0%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Kody Epps for 2 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q4 10:41
3RD & 8
OPP 32
0
7.6%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Kody EppsSimilar
Q4 10:29
4TH & 8
OPP 32
+6
7.0%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Puka Nacua for 6 yds Puka Nacua fumbled, forced by Dwight McGlothern, recovered by Ark Hudson ClarkSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 22DOWNS
16 plays · 73 yds · 9:3595% → 99%
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
4.8%
KJ Jefferson run for no gain to the Ark 26Similar
Q4 9:34
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+1
4.5%
AJ Green run for 1 yd to the Ark 27Similar
Q4 9:01
3RD & 9
OWN 27
+14
4.4%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 14 yds to the Ark 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
4.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:02
2ND & 1
50
+14
3.7%
KJ Jefferson run for 14 yds to the BYU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
3.4%
Rashod Dubinion run for 2 yds to the BYU 34Similar
Q4 6:21
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+7
3.1%
Raheim Sanders run for 7 yds to the BYU 27Similar
Q4 5:53
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+3
3.0%
KJ Jefferson run for 3 yds to the BYU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
2.6%
AJ Green run for 5 yds to the BYU 19Similar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+6
2.2%
AJ Green run for 6 yds to the BYU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
2.1%
AJ Green run for 6 yds to the BYU 7Similar
Q4 3:04
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+5
1.8%
KJ Jefferson run for 5 yds to the BYU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
1.7%
AJ Green run for no gain to the BYU 2Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
1.3%
AJ Green run for 1 yd to the BYU 1Similar
Q4 1:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
1.3%
AJ Green run for no gain to the BYU 1Similar
Q4 0:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
1.3%
Malik Hornsby run for no gain to the BYU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 23END OF GAME
1 play · 5 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
1.9%
Jacob Conover run for 5 yds to the BYU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:11
Jaren Hall pass complete to Puka Nacua for 33 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)
+22.5
TD · Q3 9:53
Puka Nacua run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK) ARKANSAS Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) declined
+20.6
TD · Q4 14:25
Raheim Sanders run for 64 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)
-16.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com