Try the model
MISS

Ole Miss 52 at Vanderbilt 28

VAN
2022 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2022 · FirstBank Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · VAN
modelVAN aheadMISS aheadconfidence bandkey playVAN scoreMISS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:38 · Matt Hayball punt for 43 yds , Jordan Watkins returns for no gain to the Miss 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+54.5+27.30−27.3−54.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 101Pregame prior−17.8Home team on offense+3.1Score differential+0.5Garbage-time factor+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:32: Ray Davis run for 5 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK) — VAN win probability +11.1 pts (now 49%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:21: Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK) — MISS win probability +11.6 pts (now 64%) (top driver: Scoring-chance index: 62%).
  3. TD · Q3 9:57: Zach Evans run for 24 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK) — MISS win probability +11.2 pts (now 76%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:29: Quinshon Judkins run for 6 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK) — MISS win probability +14.9 pts (now 85%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:30: Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 71 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK) — MISS win probability +8.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VAN made the numbers' call on 8 of 9MISS made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 11:17MISS 4th & 10 at VAN 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.4%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.5%
    80% to make
    Punt
    83.1%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:11VAN 4th & 3 at MISS 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    16.3%−0.2
    27% to make
    Punt
    16.4%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:08VAN 4th & 5 at MISS 5, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.6%
    92% to make
    Punt
    17.6%−1.0
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:09MISS 4th & 3 at VAN 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.3%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    79.1%−0.3
    51% to make
    Punt
    78.9%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:22VAN 4th & 6 at MISS 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.3%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.6%
    81% to make
    Punt
    27.3%−3.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:32VAN 4th & 3 at MISS 5, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.4%
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    34.7%−0.7
    92% to make
    Punt
    28.9%−6.5
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:38VAN 4th & 7 at VAN 40, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:40VAN 4th & 8 at VAN 32, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.3%−1.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:15VAN 4th & 7 at VAN 39, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.3%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.8%
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00VAN 4th & 4 at MISS 43, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    5.9%−1.8
    28% to make
    Punt
    6.6%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:03VAN 4th & 5 at MISS 29, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.7%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    3.8%
    58% to make
    Punt
    2.0%−1.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:01MISS 4th & 2 at VAN 36, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    96.7%−0.5
    42% to make
    Punt
    96.5%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VAN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MISS made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q2 13:35VAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:26MISS Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:32VAN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:21MISS Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:57MISS Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:29MISS Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:30MISS Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:49MISS Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:03VAN Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    1.8%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.0%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:18MISS Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1FG
17 plays · 64 yds · 3:3984% → 82%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
16.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Zach Evans for 9 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 1
OWN 28
0
16.5%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:56
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+3
16.5%
Zach Evans run for 3 yds to the Miss 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
16.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Malik Heath for 5 yds to the Miss 36Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+11
16.5%
Zach Evans run for 11 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
16.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 9 yds to the Vandy 44Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 1
OPP 44
-5
16.5%
PENALTY Ole False Start (Williams,Jayden) 5 yards from Vandy44 to Vandy49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+10
16.5%
Zach Evans run for 10 yds to the Vandy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
16.5%
Zach Evans run for 1 yd to the Vandy 40Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+23
16.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 23 yds to the Vandy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
16.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 9 yds to the Vandy 8Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 1
OPP 8
-10
16.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Judkins,Quinshon rush middle for 0 yards to the Vandy08 (Clifton,Nate; Taylor,CJ) PENALTY Ole Holding (Trigg,Michael) 10 yards from Vandy08 to Vandy18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 11
OPP 18
+1
16.5%
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the Vandy 17Similar
Q1 14:56
3RD & 10
OPP 17
0
16.5%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Jonathan MingoSimilar
Q1 11:17
4TH & 10
OPP 17
+35
18.1%
Jonathan Cruz 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
18.1%
PENALTY Ole UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Pettus,Micah) 15 yards from Ole35 to Ole20. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 2FG
13 plays · 56 yds · 5:0318% → 21%
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
18.3%
Ray Davis run for 10 yds to the Vandy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
18.4%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Will SheppardSimilar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+8
18.4%
Ray Davis run for 8 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q1 11:11
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+1
18.4%
Ray Davis run for 1 yd to the Miss 44Similar
Q1 11:11
4TH & 3
OPP 44
+23
18.3%
AJ Swann pass complete to Will Sheppard for 23 yds to the Miss 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
18.5%
Ray Davis run for 5 yds to the Miss 16Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+10
18.5%
AJ Swann pass complete to Jayden McGowan for 10 yds to the Miss 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
18.5%
Ray Davis run for 2 yds to the Miss 4Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
18.5%
AJ Swann run for 1 yd to the Miss 5Similar
Q1 11:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
18.4%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Ray DavisSimilar
Q1 6:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
21.3%
Joseph Bulovas 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3DOWNS
12 plays · 52 yds · 3:5079% → 78%
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
21.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 1 yd to the Miss 17Similar
Q1 5:59
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+6
21.0%
Quinshon Judkins run for 6 yds to the Miss 23Similar
Q1 5:59
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+3
21.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 3 yds to the Miss 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
21.0%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Jaylon RobinsonSimilar
Q1 5:59
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+3
21.0%
Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q1 5:59
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+16
21.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 16 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
20.5%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the Miss 47Similar
Q1 5:59
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+14
20.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Quinshon Judkins for 14 yds to the Vandy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
20.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 4 yds to the Vandy 35Similar
Q1 5:59
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+3
20.1%
Zach Evans run for 3 yds to the Vandy 32Similar
Q1 5:59
3RD & 3
OPP 32
0
20.4%
Zach Evans run for no gain to the Vandy 32Similar
Q1 2:09
4TH & 3
OPP 32
0
22.5%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Casey KellySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 4TD
7 plays · 68 yds · 3:3424% → 32%
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
23.5%
Ray Davis run for 3 yds to the Vandy 35Similar
Q1 2:09
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+9
23.6%
Ray Davis run for 9 yds to the Vandy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
24.2%
AJ Swann pass complete to Jayden McGowan for 4 yds to the Vandy 48Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+2
25.8%
Ray Davis run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
50
+9
25.6%
AJ Swann pass complete to Will Sheppard for 9 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
26.0%
Ray Davis run for 5 yds to the Miss 36Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+36
31.8%
AJ Swann pass complete to Jayden McGowan for 36 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
30.4%
OLE MISS Penalty, Disconcerting Signals (Malik Heath) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 6FG
6 plays · 28 yds · 1:5332% → 34%
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
32.2%
AJ Swann pass complete to Gamarion Carter for 6 yds to the Miss 38Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+18
32.2%
AJ Swann pass complete to Ben Bresnahan for 18 yds to the Miss 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
32.3%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Gamarion CarterSimilar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+4
32.3%
Ray Davis run for 4 yds to the Miss 16Similar
Q2 13:15
3RD & 6
OPP 16
0
31.8%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Ray DavisSimilar
Q2 11:22
4TH & 6
OPP 16
+34
33.9%
Joseph Bulovas 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7TD
4 plays · 65 yds · 0:5667% → 71%
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
33.3%
Zach Evans run for 2 yds to the Miss 37Similar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+2
33.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Malik Heath for 2 yds to the Miss 39Similar
Q2 10:26
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+61
28.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 61 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 8TD
20 plays · 75 yds · 8:5429% → 49%
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
28.8%
Patrick Smith run for no gain to the Vandy 25Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
28.7%
AJ Swann pass complete to Will Sheppard for 4 yds to the Vandy 29Similar
Q2 10:26
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+15
28.3%
AJ Swann pass complete to Will Sheppard for 15 yds to the Vandy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
30.1%
Mike Wright run for 3 yds to the Vandy 47Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+5
30.2%
PENALTY Ole Offside (Gordon,Jamond) 5 yards from Vandy47 to Ole48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+15
30.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Davis,Ray pass incomplete short left to Wright,Mike PENALTY Ole Roughing The Passer (Young,Isheem) 15 yards from Ole48 to Ole33, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
30.9%
Mike Wright run for 6 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 13
OPP 36
+18
29.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Swann,AJ pass complete deep left to Davis,Ray for 18 yards to the Ole18, End Of Play PENALTY Vandy Ineligible Downfield on Pass offsetting Ole Holding offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 13
OPP 36
+3
29.8%
Ray Davis run for 3 yds to the Miss 33Similar
Q2 10:26
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+11
30.0%
AJ Swann pass complete to Gamarion Carter for 11 yds to the Miss 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
30.9%
Ray Davis run for 2 yds to the Miss 20Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+6
30.9%
AJ Swann pass complete to Jayden McGowan for 6 yds to the Miss 14Similar
Q2 10:26
3RD & 2
OPP 14
+2
30.2%
Ray Davis run for 2 yds to the Miss 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
30.9%
Patrick Smith run for 3 yds to the Miss 9Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 7
OPP 9
0
30.9%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Will SheppardSimilar
Q2 2:16
3RD & 7
OPP 9
+4
39.7%
Mike Wright run for 4 yds to the Miss 5Similar
Q2 1:32
4TH & 3
OPP 5
+5
48.6%
Ray Davis run for 5 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9TD
9 plays · 62 yds · 1:0351% → 64%
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
48.7%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Malik HeathSimilar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+9
49.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Malik Heath for 9 yds to the Miss 47Similar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+2
47.3%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the Miss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+48
47.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 48 yds to the Vandy 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
44.6%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the Vandy 1Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
44.6%
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the Vandy 2Similar
Q2 0:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
35.9%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
39.0%
Ray Davis run for 4 yds to the Vandy 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 3:1738% → 41%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
38.4%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Jayden McGowanSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
38.1%
PENALTY Ole Offside (Tennison,Ladarius) 5 yards from Vandy25 to Vandy30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
38.9%
Ray Davis run for 7 yds to the Vandy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
39.3%
Ray Davis run for no gain to the Vandy 37Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 20
OWN 27
+11
37.9%
AJ Swann pass complete to Ray Davis for 11 yds to the Vandy 38Similar
Q3 12:31
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+2
40.9%
AJ Swann pass complete to Ray Davis for 2 yds to the Vandy 40Similar
Q3 11:38
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
40.6%
Matt Hayball punt for 43 yds , Jordan Watkins returns for no gain to the Miss 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 12TD
7 plays · 83 yds · 1:4159% → 76%
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+17
40.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 17 yds to the Miss 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
39.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Zach Evans for 6 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q3 11:38
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+8
37.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 8 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
37.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 11 yds to the Vandy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
36.8%
Jaxson Dart run for 7 yds to the Vandy 34Similar
Q3 11:38
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+10
35.2%
Zach Evans run for 10 yds to the Vandy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
24.0%
Zach Evans run for 24 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 13FUMBLE
3 plays · -14 yds · 1:2429% → 30%
Q3 9:57
1ST & 19
OWN 16
+3
29.2%
Ray Davis run for 3 yds to the Vandy 19Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+8
29.5%
AJ Swann run for 8 yds to the Vandy 6 AJ Swann fumbled, recovered by Miss Ladarius TennisonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 14TD
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q3 8:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
14.6%
Quinshon Judkins run for 6 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:4917% → 16%
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
16.8%
Patrick Smith run for 3 yds to the Vandy 33Similar
Q3 8:29
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
16.9%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Gamarion CarterSimilar
Q3 8:29
3RD & 17
OWN 23
+9
15.6%
AJ Swann pass complete to Jayden McGowan for 9 yds to the Vandy 32Similar
Q3 6:40
4TH & 8
OWN 32
0
15.7%
Matt Hayball punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Mingo at the Miss 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 16TD
1 play · 71 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+71
7.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 71 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 3:159% → 9%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
9.4%
Ray Davis run for 1 yd to the Vandy 26Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
9.3%
Jayden McGowan run for 10 yds to the Vandy 16Similar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+5
9.1%
Ray Davis run for 5 yds to the Vandy 21Similar
Q3 4:07
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+15
8.5%
Hayball,Matt punt 43 yards to the Ole36 Mingo,Jonathan return 4 yards to the Ole40 (Schelling,Wesley) PENALTY Ole Roughing The Kicker (White,Trip) 15 yards from Vandy21 to Vandy36, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
9.1%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Will SheppardSimilar
Q3 4:07
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+3
8.8%
AJ Swann pass complete to Ray Davis for 3 yds to the Vandy 39Similar
Q3 4:07
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
9.1%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Will SheppardSimilar
Q3 3:15
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
8.7%
Matt Hayball punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jordan Watkins at the Miss 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18INT
7 plays · 57 yds · 2:4095% → 96%
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+17
4.9%
Zach Evans run for 17 yds to the Miss 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
4.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 1 yd to the Miss 45Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+28
4.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Michael Trigg for 28 yds to the Vandy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
4.3%
Zach Evans run for 1 yd to the Vandy 26Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+8
4.5%
Jaxson Dart run for 8 yds to the Vandy 18Similar
Q3 3:15
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+2
4.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 2 yds to the Vandy 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
3.6%
Jaxson Dart pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 19DOWNS
16 plays · 67 yds · 7:576% → 4%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
6.4%
Ray Davis run for 4 yds to the Vandy 9Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+5
6.4%
Ray Davis run for 5 yds to the Vandy 14Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 14
+3
6.6%
Ray Davis run for 3 yds to the Vandy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
6.6%
AJ Swann pass complete to Patrick Smith for 8 yds to the Vandy 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+9
7.0%
Patrick Smith run for 9 yds to the Vandy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
6.9%
Patrick Smith run for 2 yds to the Vandy 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+2
7.0%
Jayden McGowan run for 2 yds to the Vandy 38Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+13
7.0%
AJ Swann pass complete to Will Sheppard for 13 yds to the Miss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
7.4%
AJ Swann pass complete to Quincy Skinner Jr. for 6 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 47
+4
6.9%
AJ Swann pass complete to Will Sheppard for 4 yds to the Miss 49Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+6
7.3%
AJ Swann pass complete to Ray Davis for 6 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 43
+9
7.3%
AJ Swann pass complete to Will Sheppard for 9 yds to the Miss 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
8.2%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Gamarion CarterSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+5
8.2%
AJ Swann pass complete to Jayden McGowan for 5 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 29
0
8.0%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Will SheppardSimilar
Q4 7:03
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+1
4.2%
AJ Swann pass complete to Patrick Smith for 1 yd to the Miss 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20TD
1 play · 72 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+72
0.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 72 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 21TD
7 plays · 74 yds · 2:400% → 4%
Q4 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
0.3%
Ray Davis run for 6 yds to the Vandy 32Similar
Q4 6:43
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+2
0.3%
Ray Davis run for 2 yds to the Vandy 34Similar
Q4 6:43
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+5
0.3%
Ray Davis run for 5 yds to the Vandy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+34
0.3%
AJ Swann pass complete to Jayden McGowan for 34 yds to the Miss 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+18
0.3%
AJ Swann pass complete to Gamarion Carter for 18 yds to the Miss 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
3.5%
Will Sheppard 9 Yd pass from AJ Swann (AJ Swann Pass to Ben Bresnahan for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 22TD
9 plays · 44 yds · 3:4398% → 100%
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
2.4%
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the Vandy 45Similar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+1
2.4%
JJ Henry run for 1 yd to the Vandy 46Similar
Q4 4:01
3RD & 12
OPP 46
+10
2.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Malik Heath for 10 yds to the Vandy 36Similar
Q4 4:01
4TH & 2
OPP 36
+24
2.6%
Quinshon Judkins run for 24 yds to the Vandy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
2.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 9 yds to the Vandy 3Similar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 1
OPP 3
+1
2.3%
Matt Jones run for 1 yd to the Vandy 4Similar
Q4 4:01
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+3
2.4%
Matt Jones run for 3 yds to the Vandy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.4%
Matt Jones 1 Yd Run (Jonathan Cruz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 23END OF GAME
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
0.6%
Rocko Griffin run for 4 yds to the Vandy 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:29
Quinshon Judkins run for 6 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK)
-14.9
TD · Q2 0:21
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK)
-11.6
TD · Q3 9:57
Zach Evans run for 24 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK)
-11.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com