2022 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2022 · Kroger Field
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Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadSC aheadconfidence bandkey playUK scoreSC score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:23 · Colin Goodfellow punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Josh Vann at the SCaro 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 8:30: Kaiya Sheron pass complete to Jordan Dingle for 16 yds for a TD, (Matt Ruffolo KICK) — UK win probability +8.7 pts (now 67%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 0:26: Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 7 yds to the Kent 20 — UK win probability +5.2 pts (now 63%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:47: Spencer Rattler pass complete to Antwane Wells Jr. for 42 yds for a TD, (Mitch Jeter KICK) — SC win probability +14.3 pts (now 59%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
- TD · Q4 6:53: Jalen Brooks run for 24 yds for a TD, (Mitch Jeter KICK) — SC win probability +8.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
- TD · Q4 2:49: Kaiya Sheron pass complete to JuTahn McClain for 10 yds for a TD, (Matt Ruffolo KICK) — UK win probability +5.6 pts (now 9%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UK made the numbers' call on 8 of 9SC made the numbers' call on 2 of 7
- Q1 11:39UK 4th & 5 at UK 41, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.9% before the snapGo for it61.9%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.0%average punt
- Q1 10:18SC 4th & 10 at SC 38, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.6% before the snapGo for it38.5%−0.229% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.6%average punt
- Q1 7:09UK 4th & 8 at UK 39, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.6% before the snapGo for it59.6%−0.234% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.7%average punt
- Q1 1:22UK 4th & 8 at SC 27, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.3% before the snapGo for it56.9%−0.333% to convertField goalTheir call57.2%62% to makePunt54.0%−3.2average punt
- Q2 11:53SC 4th & 2 at UK 40, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call46.4%57% to convertField goal45.1%−1.334% to makePunt45.2%−1.2average punt
- Q2 4:58SC 4th & 11 at UK 41, tiedClose callPunted · 40.6% before the snapGo for it40.4%27% to convertField goal40.1%−0.232% to makePuntTheir call40.3%−0.1average punt
- Q2 2:37UK 4th & 7 at UK 19, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 59.2% before the snapGo for it58.2%−0.635% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call58.8%average punt
- Q3 9:39UK 4th & 12 at UK 44, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.0% before the snapGo for it39.3%−3.023% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call42.3%average punt
- Q3 2:38SC 4th & 3 at UK 14, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 67.3% before the snapGo for it67.0%51% to convertField goalTheir call66.5%−0.684% to makePunt58.1%−8.9average punt
- Q4 12:23UK 4th & 7 at SC 48, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.5% before the snapGo for it23.8%−0.237% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.0%average punt
- Q4 9:08SC 4th & 1 at SC 46, up 10Numbers favored go for it by 3.1 ptsPunted · 83.3% before the snapGo for it83.4%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call80.3%−3.1average punt
- Q4 8:26UK 4th & 5 at UK 25, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.2% before the snapGo for it14.4%−1.040% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.4%average punt
- Q4 4:11UK 4th & 1 at SC 29, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.0%71% to convertField goal3.9%−0.158% to makePunt2.7%−1.3average punt
- Q4 2:49UK 4th & 3 at SC 10, down 17Close callWent for it · 3.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.3%−<0.149% to convertField goal3.3%88% to makePunt2.3%−1.0average punt
- Q4 2:18SC 4th & 7 at UK 48, up 10Close callPunted · 92.5% before the snapGo for it92.0%37% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call91.8%−0.2average punt
- Q4 0:04SC 4th & 1 at UK 44, up 10Close callWent for it · 95.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call95.1%−0.270% to convertField goal95.4%27% to makePunt95.0%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UK made the numbers' call on 2 of 2SC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 14:47SC Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call36.9%97% to makeGo for two36.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:30UK Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call59.8%97% to makeGo for two59.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:47SC Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call53.8%97% to makeGo for two53.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:53SC Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.1%97% to makeGo for two93.9%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 2:49UK Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call7.7%97% to makeGo for two7.7%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUKDrive 1FUMBLE2 plays · -8 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
64.6%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for a loss of 8 yards to the Kent 2 Chris Rodriguez Jr. fumbled, forced by David Spaulding, recovered by SCaro Tonka Hemingway , return for 15 yds to the Kent 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 2TD1 play · 2 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 3PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 2:5565% → 63%
SCDrive 4PUNT6 plays · 0 yds · 1:2137% → 37%
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
63.0%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Eric Douglas) to the SCaro 33Similar
Q1 11:39
1ST & 15
OWN 33
-5
63.2%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Eric Douglas) to the SCaro 28Similar
Q1 10:18
4TH & 10
OWN 38
0
62.7%
Kai Kroeger punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tayvion Robinson at the Kent 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 5PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 3:0963% → 61%
Q1 9:53
1ST & 15
OWN 19
+18
62.5%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 18 yds to the Kent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 15
OWN 32
-9
61.8%
Kaiya Sheron pass complete to Barion Brown for a loss of 9 yards to the Kent 23Similar
Q1 7:40
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+1
61.4%
Kaiya Sheron pass complete to Chris Rodriguez Jr. for 1 yd to the Kent 39Similar
Q1 7:09
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
60.8%
Colin Goodfellow punt blocked by King-Demenian Ford blocked by King-Demenian FordSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 6FUMBLE4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4740% → 40%
Q1 6:13
2ND & 10
OPP 11
-10
59.7%
Spencer Rattler sacked by Tyrell Ajian for a loss of 10 yards to the Kent 21 Spencer Rattler fumbled, forced by Tyrell Ajian, recovered by Kent J.J. Weaver , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 7MISSED FG9 plays · 52 yds · 4:3861% → 59%
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
60.8%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 12 yds to the Kent 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+20
60.7%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 20 yds to the SCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+15
60.8%
Kaiya Sheron pass complete to Barion Brown for 15 yds to the SCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 8DOWNS10 plays · 29 yds · 4:0742% → 45%
Q1 0:14
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+5
57.1%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Josh Vann for 5 yds to the SCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+11
56.1%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Josh Vann for 11 yds to the Kent 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
55.0%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Jalen Brooks for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 49Similar
Q2 12:22
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+4
54.7%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Juju McDowell for 4 yds to the Kent 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 9TD7 plays · 56 yds · 3:1258% → 67%
SCDrive 10PUNT7 plays · 27 yds · 3:1540% → 39%
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+28
60.5%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to MarShawn Lloyd for 28 yds to the Kent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 6
OPP 36
-10
58.0%
Lloyd, MarShawn rush for 3 yards to the KENTUCKY33, PENALTY SOCAROLINA holding (Nichols, Jaylen) 10 yards to the KENTUCKY46, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 16 yds · 2:1363% → 61%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 12INT5 plays · 11 yds · 1:5043% → 43%
UKDrive 13END OF HALF1 play · 7 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 14TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0642% → 59%
UKDrive 15PUNT7 plays · 19 yds · 3:0145% → 42%
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
45.0%
Kaiya Sheron sacked by Tonka Hemingway for a loss of 6 yards to the Kent 19Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+27
44.0%
Kaiya Sheron pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 27 yds to the Kent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-14
46.8%
Kaiya Sheron sacked by Gilber Edmond for a loss of 14 yards to the Kent 32Similar
Q3 9:39
4TH & 12
OWN 44
0
41.6%
Colin Goodfellow punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Josh Vann at the SCaro 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 16FG14 plays · 70 yds · 6:3959% → 71%
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
35.0%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to MarShawn Lloyd for 3 yds to the Kent 49Similar
Q3 4:33
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+30
34.0%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Jalen Brooks for 30 yds to the Kent 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
31.9%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Antwane Wells Jr. for 2 yds to the Kent 19Similar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+7
30.9%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Ahmarean Brown for 7 yds to the Kent 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 17PUNT12 plays · 27 yds · 4:5929% → 24%
Q3 1:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
27.0%
Sheron, Kaiya pass incomplete to Magwood, Chauncey, PENALTY SOCAROLINA pass interference (Dial, Marcellas) 6 yards to the KENTUCKY37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KENTUCKY.Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+1
27.7%
Kaiya Sheron pass complete to Brenden Bates for 1 yd to the SCaro 48Similar
Q4 12:23
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
23.7%
Colin Goodfellow punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Josh Vann at the SCaro 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 18PUNT7 plays · 37 yds · 3:0776% → 83%
Q4 11:00
3RD & 4
OWN 15
+22
21.8%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Antwane Wells Jr. for 22 yds to the SCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 8
OWN 39
-1
16.2%
Spencer Rattler sacked by DeAndre Square for a loss of 1 yard to the SCaro 38Similar
Q4 9:25
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+8
16.5%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Jalen Brooks for 8 yds to the SCaro 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:2917% → 14%
Q4 8:26
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
14.3%
Colin Goodfellow punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Josh Vann at the SCaro 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 20TD4 plays · 72 yds · 1:1284% → 96%
UKDrive 21TD20 plays · 75 yds · 4:046% → 9%
Q4 6:25
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-12
4.9%
Kaiya Sheron sacked by Sherrod Greene for a loss of 12 yards to the Kent 8Similar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 27
OWN 8
+11
4.6%
Kaiya Sheron pass complete to Chauncey Magwood for 11 yds to the Kent 19Similar
Q4 5:55
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+18
4.3%
Kaiya Sheron pass complete to Brenden Bates for 18 yds to the Kent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-11
4.5%
Kaiya Sheron sacked by Tonka Hemingway and Jordan Burch for a loss of 11 yards to the Kent 26Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 21
OWN 26
+10
3.3%
Kaiya Sheron pass complete to Rahsaan Lewis for 10 yds to the Kent 36Similar
Q4 4:57
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+26
3.4%
Kaiya Sheron pass complete to Chauncey Magwood for 26 yds to the SCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:46
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+10
3.6%
Kaiya Sheron pass complete to DeMarcus Harris for 10 yds to the SCaro 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-8
3.6%
Kaiya Sheron sacked by Zacch Pickens for a loss of 8 yards to the SCaro 25Similar
Q4 3:06
3RD & 23
OPP 30
+20
3.2%
Kaiya Sheron pass complete to Chris Lewis for 20 yds to the SCaro 10Similar
Q4 2:49
4TH & 3
OPP 10
+10
8.7%
Kaiya Sheron pass complete to JuTahn McClain for 10 yds for a TD, (Matt Ruffolo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 22PUNT8 plays · 3 yds · 0:2795% → 96%
UKDrive 23INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-9
4.3%
Kaiya Sheron pass intercepted David Spaulding return for 9 yds to the SCaro 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 24END OF GAME5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0596% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:47
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Antwane Wells Jr. for 42 yds for a TD, (Mitch Jeter KICK)
-14.3
TD · Q2 8:30
Kaiya Sheron pass complete to Jordan Dingle for 16 yds for a TD, (Matt Ruffolo KICK)
+8.7
TD · Q4 6:53
Jalen Brooks run for 24 yds for a TD, (Mitch Jeter KICK)
-8.4