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TA&M

Texas A&M 20 at Alabama 24

ALA
2022 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2022 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
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Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadTA&M aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreTA&M score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Haynes King pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialTime remaining
+44.0+22.00−22.0−44.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:33: Haynes King pass complete to Moose Muhammad III for 5 yds for a TD, (Randy Bond KICK) — TA&M win probability +5.8 pts (now 18%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:33: Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 35 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +5.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:12: Haynes King pass complete to Donovan Green for 3 yds for a TD, (Randy Bond KICK) — TA&M win probability +7.0 pts (now 20%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 13:03: Jalen Milroe pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 29 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +4.6 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 3:32: Randy Bond 46 Yd Field Goal — TA&M win probability +4.5 pts (now 14%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7TA&M made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 13:36TA&M 4th & 6 at TA&M 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:06ALA 4th & 16 at TA&M 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.2%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:50TA&M 4th & 4 at TA&M 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.3%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:06ALA 4th & 8 at TA&M 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.1%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    91.1%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:02TA&M 4th & 7 at TA&M 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.3%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.4%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:04ALA 4th & 10 at ALA 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.4%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.6%
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:13TA&M 4th & 9 at TA&M 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:20TA&M 4th & 7 at TA&M 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:34TA&M 4th & 13 at TA&M 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%−0.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:12ALA 4th & 14 at TA&M 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.2%−1.3
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.5%
    51% to make
    Punt
    79.8%−1.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:10TA&M 4th & 1 at TA&M 34, down 10
    Close callPunted · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.0%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:19TA&M 4th & 7 at ALA 23, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.1%
    70% to make
    Punt
    6.3%−4.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:42ALA 4th & 14 at TA&M 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.8%−1.8
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.6%
    58% to make
    Punt
    82.2%−5.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:39TA&M 4th & 3 at ALA 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.1%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    12.8%−2.3
    36% to make
    Punt
    12.7%−2.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:15ALA 4th & 14 at TA&M 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.1%−2.7
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.8%
    80% to make
    Punt
    79.7%−9.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:01TA&M 4th & 2 at ALA 24, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.7%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    13.7%
    68% to make
    Punt
    3.9%−9.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:32TA&M 4th & 18 at ALA 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%−2.9
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.5%
    62% to make
    Punt
    5.2%−5.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:50ALA 4th & 2 at ALA 33, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.4%−1.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TA&M made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 11:39ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:33TA&M Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:33ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:12TA&M Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:03ALA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TA&MDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:566% → 7%
Q1 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+15
93.6%
Haynes King run for 15 yds to the TexAM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
93.5%
Haynes King pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
93.5%
Haynes King pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+4
93.5%
Haynes King pass complete to Devon Achane for 4 yds to the TexAM 36Similar
Q1 13:36
4TH & 6
OWN 36
0
93.4%
Nik Constantinou punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Kool-Aid McKinstry at the Alab 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 31 yds · 2:1893% → 93%
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
93.3%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 9 yds to the Alab 29Similar
Q1 13:11
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+3
93.3%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for 3 yds to the Alab 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+25
93.1%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 25 yds to the TexAM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
93.1%
Jalen Milroe run for 2 yds to the TexAM 41Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 8
OPP 41
-8
93.0%
Jalen Milroe sacked by Chris Russell Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the TexAM 49Similar
Q1 11:13
3RD & 16
OPP 49
0
92.8%
Jalen Milroe pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:06
4TH & 16
OPP 49
0
92.7%
James Burnip punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexAM 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:057% → 8%
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+9
92.7%
Devon Achane run for 9 yds to the TexAM 23Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 1
OWN 23
0
92.5%
Devon Achane run for no gain to the TexAM 23Similar
Q1 9:46
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+3
92.4%
Devon Achane run for 3 yds to the TexAM 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
92.2%
Haynes King pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
92.2%
Haynes King pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:01
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+6
92.2%
Devon Achane run for 6 yds to the TexAM 32Similar
Q1 8:50
4TH & 4
OWN 32
-2
92.2%
Nik Constantinou punt for 42 yds , Kool-Aid McKinstry returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 30 yds · 1:3792% → 92%
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+14
92.1%
Jalen Milroe run for 14 yds to the Alab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
92.1%
Jalen Milroe run for 14 yds to the TexAM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
92.1%
Jase McClellan run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:31
2ND & 12
50
+4
91.8%
Jalen Milroe run for 4 yds to the TexAM 46Similar
Q1 7:14
3RD & 8
OPP 46
0
91.8%
Jalen Milroe pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:06
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
91.6%
James Burnip punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Moose Muhammad III at the TexAM 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:588% → 9%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
91.6%
Devon Achane run for 3 yds to the TexAM 11Similar
Q1 6:28
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+14
91.4%
Haynes King pass complete to Moose Muhammad III for 14 yds to the TexAM 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.2%
Haynes King pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
91.1%
Haynes King pass complete to Moose Muhammad III for 3 yds to the TexAM 28Similar
Q1 5:09
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
91.1%
Haynes King pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:02
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
91.1%
Nik Constantinou punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Kool-Aid McKinstry at the Alab 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:4991% → 90%
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
90.9%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for 6 yds to the Alab 36Similar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+1
91.0%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 1 yd to the Alab 37Similar
Q1 3:44
3RD & 3
OWN 37
-7
90.6%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for a loss of 7 yards to the Alab 30Similar
Q1 3:04
4TH & 10
OWN 30
0
90.0%
James Burnip punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexAM 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 2:4210% → 11%
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
90.2%
Haynes King run for 1 yd to the TexAM 23Similar
Q1 2:18
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+9
89.8%
Devon Achane run for 9 yds to the TexAM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
89.5%
Devon Achane run for 1 yd to the TexAM 33Similar
Q1 1:11
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+12
89.3%
Haynes King pass complete to Moose Muhammad III for a loss of 6 yards to the TexAM 39 lat. to Evan Stewart for 12 yds to the TexAM 39Similar
Q1 0:21
3RD & 3
OWN 39
-6
88.7%
Haynes King sacked by Chris Braswell for a loss of 6 yards to the TexAM 33Similar
Q1 0:13
4TH & 9
OWN 33
0
89.3%
Nik Constantinou punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Kool-Aid McKinstry at the Alab 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8TD
10 plays · 71 yds · 3:2189% → 90%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
89.4%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 2 yds to the Alab 31Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+4
89.4%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for 4 yds to the Alab 35Similar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+5
89.2%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Alab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+14
89.4%
Jalen Milroe run for 14 yds to the TexAM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
89.5%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 1 yd to the TexAM 45Similar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+33
89.3%
Jalen Milroe run for 33 yds to the TexAM 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
89.3%
Jase McClellan run for 2 yds to the TexAM 10Similar
Q2 12:07
2ND & 8
OPP 10
0
89.2%
Jalen Milroe run for no gain to the TexAM 10Similar
Q2 11:39
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+10
91.0%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Cameron Latu for 10 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
Q2 11:39
3RD & 8
OWN 35
-15
90.4%
ALABAMA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (JC Latham) to the Alab 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 2:0610% → 10%
Q2 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
90.2%
Devon Achane run for 7 yds to the TexAM 37Similar
Q2 10:51
2ND & 3
OWN 37
-4
89.7%
Haynes King pass complete to Devon Achane for a loss of 4 yards to the TexAM 33Similar
Q2 10:05
3RD & 7
OWN 33
-5
90.1%
Haynes King sacked by Dallas Turner for a loss of 5 yards to the TexAM 28Similar
Q2 9:40
4TH & 12
OWN 28
+5
90.6%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the TexAM 33Similar
Q2 9:20
4TH & 7
OWN 33
0
90.4%
Nik Constantinou punt for 33 yds, downed at the Alab 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10FUMBLE
1 play · -4 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-4
90.2%
Jalen Milroe sacked by Fadil Diggs for a loss of 4 yards to the Alab 30 Jalen Milroe fumbled, forced by Fadil Diggs, recovered by TexAM Edgerrin Cooper , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 11TD
6 plays · 30 yds · 2:1511% → 18%
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+13
88.6%
Haynes King pass complete to Chris Marshall for 13 yds to the Alab 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
88.4%
Haynes King pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+3
88.4%
Devon Achane run for 3 yds to the Alab 14Similar
Q2 7:44
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+9
88.8%
Haynes King pass complete to Chris Marshall for 9 yds to the Alab 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
88.2%
Devon Achane run for no gain to the Alab 5Similar
Q2 6:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
82.4%
Haynes King pass complete to Moose Muhammad III for 5 yds for a TD, (Randy Bond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5286% → 91%
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
85.7%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 3 yds to the Alab 28Similar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+37
85.6%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 37 yds to the TexAM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
90.6%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 35 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:4611% → 10%
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
89.3%
Haynes King pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
89.4%
Haynes King pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 10
OWN 22
-3
89.7%
Haynes King sacked by Dallas Turner for a loss of 3 yards to the TexAM 19Similar
Q2 4:34
4TH & 13
OWN 19
0
89.9%
Nik Constantinou punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Kool-Aid McKinstry at the Alab 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14FUMBLE
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:4890% → 90%
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
90.2%
Jase McClellan run for 2 yds to the Alab 42Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+8
90.1%
Jase McClellan run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
50
-1
90.2%
Jalen Milroe sacked by Fadil Diggs for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 49 Jalen Milroe fumbled, forced by Fadil Diggs, recovered by TexAM Jaylon Jones , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 15TD
4 plays · 49 yds · 1:0312% → 20%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+43
87.6%
Haynes King pass complete to Evan Stewart for 43 yds to the Alab 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
86.8%
Haynes King pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
86.6%
Devon Achane run for 3 yds to the Alab 3Similar
Q2 2:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
79.6%
Haynes King pass complete to Donovan Green for 3 yds for a TD, (Randy Bond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16INT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:4683% → 82%
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-3
83.3%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 21Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 13
OWN 21
+1
82.7%
Jalen Milroe run for 1 yd to the Alab 22Similar
Q2 1:13
3RD & 12
OWN 22
0
81.9%
Jalen Milroe pass intercepted Jardin Gilbert return for no gain to the TexAM 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 17INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:2220% → 20%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
80.3%
Haynes King pass complete to Evan Stewart for 4 yds to the TexAM 38Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 6
OWN 38
0
79.3%
Haynes King pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 6
OWN 38
-21
80.0%
Haynes King pass intercepted Terrion Arnold return for 21 yds to the TexAM 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18FG
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:1985% → 83%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
84.9%
Jalen Milroe pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-12
84.8%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Kobe Prentice for 3 yds to the TexAM 25 ALABAMA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jermaine Burton) to the TexAM 40Similar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 22
OPP 40
+8
82.3%
Jalen Milroe run for 8 yds to the TexAM 32Similar
Q2 0:12
4TH & 14
OPP 32
+50
83.0%
Will Reichard 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 19END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
83.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:5284% → 91%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.3%
Jalen Milroe pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+28
84.8%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 28 yds to the TexAM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
86.2%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Personal Foul (Denver Harris) to the TexAM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
86.5%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 1 yd to the TexAM 31Similar
Q3 13:21
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+2
86.2%
Jase McClellan run for 2 yds to the TexAM 29Similar
Q3 13:03
3RD & 7
OPP 29
+29
90.8%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 29 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:4210% → 10%
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
90.1%
Haynes King pass complete to Jalen Preston for 5 yds to the TexAM 30Similar
Q3 12:19
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
89.8%
Devon Achane run for 2 yds to the TexAM 32Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
90.0%
Haynes King pass complete to Evan Stewart for 2 yds to the TexAM 34Similar
Q3 11:10
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
89.7%
Nik Constantinou punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Kool-Aid McKinstry at the Alab 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 22FUMBLE
10 plays · 47 yds · 3:4389% → 91%
Q3 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
89.4%
Jalen Milroe run for 2 yds to the Alab 17Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+11
89.3%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 11 yds to the Alab 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
89.5%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 12 yds to the Alab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
90.2%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 5 yds to the Alab 45Similar
Q3 9:07
2ND & 5
OWN 45
-5
90.2%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Traeshon Holden for a loss of 5 yards to the Alab 40Similar
Q3 8:27
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+5
90.0%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Alab 45Similar
Q3 8:19
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+6
90.4%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 6 yds to the TexAM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
90.9%
Jalen Milroe run for 4 yds to the TexAM 45Similar
Q3 7:18
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+7
91.1%
Jase McClellan run for 7 yds to the TexAM 38 Jase McClellan fumbled, forced by Walter Nolen, recovered by TexAM Shemar StewartSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 23FG
5 plays · 39 yds · 1:4610% → 15%
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+36
90.0%
Haynes King pass complete to Moose Muhammad III for 36 yds to the Alab 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
88.2%
Haynes King run for 8 yds to the Alab 18Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 2
OPP 18
-5
88.0%
Devon Achane run for a loss of 5 yards to the Alab 23Similar
Q3 5:24
3RD & 7
OPP 23
0
89.0%
Haynes King pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:19
4TH & 7
OPP 23
+41
85.5%
Randy Bond 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 24MISSED FG
12 plays · 46 yds · 4:2988% → 88%
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
88.0%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 13 yds to the Alab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
88.6%
Roydell Williams run for 11 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
89.1%
Roydell Williams run for 7 yds to the TexAM 44Similar
Q3 4:01
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+7
89.2%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 7 yds to the TexAM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
89.1%
Roydell Williams run for 1 yd to the TexAM 36Similar
Q3 2:48
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+4
88.9%
Jase McClellan run for 4 yds to the TexAM 32Similar
Q3 2:40
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+7
88.6%
Jalen Milroe run for 7 yds to the TexAM 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
89.9%
Jase McClellan run for 5 yds to the TexAM 20Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+3
89.8%
Jase McClellan run for 3 yds to the TexAM 17Similar
Q3 1:20
3RD & 2
OPP 17
-12
90.2%
Jalen Milroe sacked by Jarred Kerr for a loss of 12 yards to the TexAM 29Similar
Q3 0:42
4TH & 14
OPP 29
+47
88.0%
Will Reichard 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 25DOWNS
5 plays · 32 yds · 1:4114% → 14%
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+25
86.0%
Haynes King pass complete to Chase Lane for 25 yds to the Alab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
83.5%
Devon Achane run for 3 yds to the Alab 43Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+1
83.6%
Haynes King run for 1 yd to the Alab 42Similar
Q4 14:18
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+3
83.8%
Devon Achane run for 3 yds to the Alab 39Similar
Q4 13:39
4TH & 3
OPP 39
0
86.3%
Haynes King pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 26MISSED FG
11 plays · 44 yds · 4:1591% → 90%
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
90.6%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 6 yds to the Alab 45Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 4
OWN 45
0
91.0%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for no gain to the Alab 45Similar
Q4 12:19
3RD & 4
OWN 45
0
90.3%
Jalen Milroe pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:10
4TH & 4
OWN 45
+5
89.5%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (5 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
50
+5
91.1%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 5 yds to the TexAM 45Similar
Q4 11:25
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+3
91.0%
Jalen Milroe run for 3 yds to the TexAM 42Similar
Q4 10:43
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+29
91.0%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 15 yds to the TexAM 27 for a 1ST down TEXAS A&M Penalty, Roughing Passer (14 Yards) to the TexAM 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-2
91.7%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 15Similar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 12
OPP 15
-2
91.7%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Kobe Prentice for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 17Similar
Q4 9:19
3RD & 14
OPP 17
0
90.7%
Jalen Milroe pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:15
4TH & 14
OPP 17
+35
89.5%
Will Reichard 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 27FG
15 plays · 53 yds · 5:2813% → 14%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+33
86.9%
Haynes King pass complete to Chris Marshall for 18 yds to the Alab 38 for a 1ST down ALABAMA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Alab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
83.7%
Haynes King pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+15
84.3%
Devon Achane run for 15 yds to the Alab 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
82.0%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Alab 37Similar
Q4 7:38
1ST & 15
OPP 37
0
86.1%
Haynes King pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 15
OPP 37
+9
86.5%
Haynes King pass complete to Evan Stewart for 9 yds to the Alab 28Similar
Q4 6:31
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+4
85.9%
Haynes King pass complete to Evan Stewart for 4 yds to the Alab 24Similar
Q4 6:01
4TH & 2
OPP 24
+5
88.5%
Haynes King pass complete to Donovan Green for 5 yds to the Alab 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
85.7%
Haynes King pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:26
2ND & 10
OPP 19
-1
86.1%
Haynes King run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 20Similar
Q4 4:45
3RD & 11
OPP 20
+3
88.1%
Haynes King pass complete to Devon Achane for 3 yds to the Alab 17Similar
Q4 4:11
4TH & 8
OPP 17
-5
89.5%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Alab 22Similar
Q4 3:54
4TH & 13
OPP 22
-5
90.7%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Alab 27Similar
Q4 3:32
4TH & 18
OPP 27
+46
86.3%
Randy Bond 46 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 28PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:3490% → 92%
Q4 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.1%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for no gain to the Alab 25Similar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
90.6%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 7 yds to the Alab 32Similar
Q4 2:03
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+1
90.6%
Jase McClellan run for 1 yd to the Alab 33Similar
Q4 1:50
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+8
91.7%
James Burnip punt for 46 yds , Moose Muhammad III returns for 8 yds to the TexAM 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 29END OF GAME
12 plays · 69 yds · 1:4512% → 19%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
88.3%
Haynes King pass complete to Evan Stewart for 4 yds to the TexAM 33Similar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+5
88.4%
Haynes King pass complete to Evan Stewart for 5 yds to the TexAM 38Similar
Q4 1:12
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+2
88.6%
Haynes King pass complete to Devon Achane for 2 yds to the TexAM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+23
88.2%
Haynes King pass complete to Evan Stewart for 23 yds to the Alab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+10
85.4%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Alab 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
81.2%
Haynes King pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:33
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
82.4%
Haynes King pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:23
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+12
85.6%
Haynes King pass complete to Moose Muhammad III for 12 yds to the Alab 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
80.6%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:11
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
80.9%
Haynes King pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:03
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+13
85.2%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (13 Yards) to the Alab 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
80.9%
Haynes King pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+19.1
TD · Q2 2:12
Haynes King pass complete to Donovan Green for 3 yds for a TD, (Randy Bond KICK)
-7
TD · Q2 6:33
Haynes King pass complete to Moose Muhammad III for 5 yds for a TD, (Randy Bond KICK)
-5.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com