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ALA

Alabama 49 at Arkansas 26

ARK
2022 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2022 · Razorback Stadium
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Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadALA aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreALA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:18 · Max Fletcher punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+53.0+26.50−26.5−53.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 174Pregame prior−5.2Home team on offense−45.8Score differential−27.1Garbage-time factor−15.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−8.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:21: KJ Jefferson pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 6 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) — ARK win probability +6.8 pts (now 9%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:47: AJ Green run for 13 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) — ARK win probability +6.4 pts (now 14%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:19: Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed) — ARK win probability +17.7 pts (now 33%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  4. TD · Q4 14:09: Jase McClellan run for 3 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +10.4 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:17: Jahmyr Gibbs run for 72 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +9.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 8 of 10ALA made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 9:50ARK 4th & 11 at ARK 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:40ARK 4th & 5 at ARK 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:48ARK 4th & 8 at ARK 40, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.4%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:16ALA 4th & 10 at ARK 35, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.0%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.1%
    45% to make
    Punt
    84.7%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:47ALA 4th & 8 at ALA 42, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.0%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:14ARK 4th & 8 at ARK 11, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:56ARK 4th & 20 at ARK 15, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.0%−0.9
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:31ARK 4th & 7 at ARK 40, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.6%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:36ALA 4th & 1 at ALA 29, up 21
    Close callPunted · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.5%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:38ARK 4th & 4 at ALA 4, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.0%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    7.6%−4.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:25ALA 4th & 8 at ALA 27, up 11
    Numbers favored punt by 1.3 ptsWent for it · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.0%−1.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    85.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:29ARK 4th & 8 at ARK 38, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:18ARK 4th & 7 at ARK 28, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:40ALA 4th & 6 at ALA 44, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:06ARK 4th & 5 at ALA 12, down 23
    Close callWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%
    86% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 2 of 3ALA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 7:41ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:35ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:29ALA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:51ALA Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:21ARK Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:47ARK Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:19ARK Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    27.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    27.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:09ALA Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 12:17ALA Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.6%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 6:55ALA Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ALADrive 1INT
6 plays · 56 yds · 2:0288% → 88%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
11.7%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 3 yds to the Alab 28Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+41
11.9%
Bryce Young pass complete to Kobe Prentice for 41 yds to the Ark 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
12.1%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 7 yds to the Ark 24Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+5
12.3%
Bryce Young pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 5 yds to the Ark 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
12.4%
Bryce Young pass intercepted Dwight McGlothern return for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 2:5013% → 14%
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
12.7%
KJ Jefferson run for 4 yds to the Ark 5Similar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 6
OWN 5
+11
12.9%
Raheim Sanders run for 11 yds to the Ark 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
13.2%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 8 yds to the Ark 24Similar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+6
13.4%
Raheim Sanders run for 6 yds to the Ark 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
13.5%
Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 7
OWN 33
-4
13.7%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 29Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 11
OWN 29
0
13.8%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Matt LandersSimilar
Q1 9:50
4TH & 11
OWN 29
0
13.8%
Max Fletcher punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 3TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 1:4986% → 87%
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
14.1%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 9 yds to the Alab 44Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 1
OWN 44
0
14.0%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Ja'Corey BrooksSimilar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
14.1%
Jase McClellan run for 2 yds to the Alab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
14.1%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Kobe PrenticeSimilar
Q1 8:11
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+7
14.5%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 7 yds to the Ark 47Similar
Q1 7:41
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+47
13.2%
Bryce Young pass complete to Kobe Prentice for 47 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:5014% → 14%
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
13.7%
Raheim Sanders run for 2 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q1 7:03
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
13.8%
Raheim Sanders run for 6 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q1 6:26
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
14.1%
KJ Jefferson run for 1 yd to the Ark 34Similar
Q1 6:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-4
14.0%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Delay of Game (-4 Yards) to the Ark 30Similar
Q1 5:40
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
13.9%
Max Fletcher punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Kool-Aid McKinstry at the Alab 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 5TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:4686% → 88%
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
14.2%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for no gain to the Alab 20Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+9
14.4%
Bryce Young pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 9 yds to the Alab 29Similar
Q1 4:13
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+6
14.3%
Jase McClellan run for 6 yds to the Alab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
14.4%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jase McClellanSimilar
Q1 3:29
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
14.6%
Bryce Young pass complete to Kobe Prentice for 4 yds to the Alab 39Similar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+53
14.5%
Bryce Young pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 53 yds to the Ark 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
12.1%
Bryce Young run for 8 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:3013% → 13%
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
12.7%
KJ Jefferson run for 13 yds to the Ark 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
13.1%
AJ Green run for 2 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q1 1:29
2ND & 8
OWN 40
0
13.2%
AJ Green run for no gain to the Ark 40Similar
Q1 1:01
3RD & 8
OWN 40
0
13.0%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Jadon HaselwoodSimilar
Q1 0:48
4TH & 8
OWN 40
+31
12.9%
Max Fletcher punt for 47 yds , Kool-Aid McKinstry returns for 31 yds to the ARKANSAS 29 ARKANSAS Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Alab 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 7MISSED FG
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:1488% → 88%
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
12.2%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 2 yds to the Ark 49Similar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+14
12.3%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 14 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
12.2%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Ja'Corey BrooksSimilar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+4
12.2%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 4 yds to the Ark 31Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 6
OPP 31
-4
12.2%
Bryce Young sacked by Drew Sanders for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 35Similar
Q2 13:16
4TH & 10
OPP 35
+53
12.5%
Will Reichard 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 8FUMBLE
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:5613% → 14%
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
13.2%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Matt LandersSimilar
Q2 12:48
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
13.1%
KJ Jefferson run for no gain to the Ark 35Similar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+14
12.9%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for 14 yds to the Ark 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
13.8%
Rashod Dubinion run for 11 yds to the Alab 40 Rashod Dubinion fumbled, forced by DeMarcco Hellams, recovered by Alab DeMarcco HellamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0288% → 88%
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
11.9%
Jase McClellan run for 1 yd to the Alab 41Similar
Q2 11:14
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+1
12.0%
Jase McClellan run for 1 yd to the Alab 42Similar
Q2 10:54
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
12.1%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Traeshon HoldenSimilar
Q2 10:47
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
12.4%
James Burnip punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Bryce Stephens at the Ark 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2113% → 13%
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-4
12.6%
KJ Jefferson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 5Similar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 14
OWN 5
+6
12.5%
Dominique Johnson run for 6 yds to the Ark 11Similar
Q2 9:32
3RD & 8
OWN 11
0
12.5%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Jaedon WilsonSimilar
Q2 9:14
4TH & 8
OWN 11
+45
12.5%
Max Fletcher punt for 51 yds , Kool-Aid McKinstry returns for 45 yds to the Ark 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 11TD
3 plays · 17 yds · 0:2688% → 93%
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
11.6%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 7 yds to the Ark 10Similar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+7
11.6%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 7 yds to the Ark 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
6.6%
Jalen Milroe run for 3 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 1:338% → 8%
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
8.4%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 20Similar
Q2 8:24
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
8.3%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Matt LandersSimilar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-8
8.7%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Jaheim Oatis and Will Anderson Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the Ark 12Similar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 23
OWN 12
+3
8.5%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Raheim Sanders for 3 yds to the Ark 15Similar
Q2 6:56
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
8.4%
Max Fletcher punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Kool-Aid McKinstry at the Alab 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 13TD
15 plays · 59 yds · 4:0093% → 96%
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
7.0%
ALABAMA Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Alab 36Similar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 15
OWN 36
0
7.1%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Cameron LatuSimilar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 15
OWN 36
+23
7.0%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 23 yds to the Ark 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
6.7%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 6 yds to the Ark 35Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+1
6.4%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 1 yd to the Ark 34Similar
Q2 5:02
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+10
6.5%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Ark 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
6.2%
Roydell Williams run for 4 yds to the Ark 20Similar
Q2 4:22
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+5
6.0%
Roydell Williams run for 5 yds to the Ark 15Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+1
6.1%
Roydell Williams run for 1 yd to the Ark 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-10
5.9%
ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Javion Cohen) to the Ark 24Similar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 20
OPP 24
0
6.0%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Traeshon HoldenSimilar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 20
OPP 24
+17
6.0%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for 17 yds to the Ark 7Similar
Q2 2:57
3RD & 3
OPP 7
-15
6.0%
ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-15 Yards) to the Ark 22Similar
Q2 2:51
3RD & 18
OPP 22
+22
4.2%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to JoJo Earle for 22 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 14TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:173% → 9%
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
2.8%
Raheim Sanders run for 12 yds to the Ark 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
2.8%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 5 yds to the Ark 42Similar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+5
2.5%
Raheim Sanders run for 5 yds to the Ark 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
3.2%
Raheim Sanders run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 45Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+20
1.9%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Matt Landers for 20 yds to the Alab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
2.1%
KJ Jefferson run for no gain to the Alab 35Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+26
1.6%
Raheim Sanders run for 26 yds to the Alab 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
2.0%
Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds to the Alab 6Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
8.8%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 6 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
5.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:148% → 8%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
7.7%
Raheim Sanders run for 5 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
7.9%
Raheim Sanders run for 7 yds to the Ark 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
7.9%
Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q3 13:51
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
8.1%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Matt LandersSimilar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
7.9%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Ketron Jackson Jr.Similar
Q3 13:31
4TH & 7
OWN 40
+51
7.7%
Max Fletcher punt for 46 yds , Kool-Aid McKinstry returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 39 ALABAMA Penalty, Illegal Block (5 Yards) to the Alab 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:4494% → 95%
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
5.6%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for no gain to the Alab 8Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 8
0
5.6%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Jermaine BurtonSimilar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 10
OWN 8
+12
5.4%
Jalen Milroe run for 12 yds to the Alab 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
4.7%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 6 yds to the Alab 26Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 4
OWN 26
0
4.6%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for no gain to the Alab 26Similar
Q3 10:45
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+3
4.6%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for 3 yds to the Alab 29Similar
Q3 10:36
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
4.7%
James Burnip punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Bryce Stephens at the Ark 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18TD
8 plays · 78 yds · 2:437% → 14%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
7.0%
KJ Jefferson run for 9 yds to the Ark 31Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+3
6.9%
Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds to the Ark 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+36
6.7%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trey Knox for 36 yds to the Alab 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
7.7%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Matt LandersSimilar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-4
7.0%
Raheim Sanders run for a loss of 4 yards to the Alab 34Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 14
OPP 34
+16
6.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Raheim Sanders for 16 yds to the Alab 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
7.1%
ALABAMA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Alab 13Similar
Q3 7:47
1ST & 5
OPP 13
+13
13.5%
AJ Green run for 13 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19FG
13 plays · 50 yds · 5:5213% → 16%
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
12.6%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:52
2ND & 6
50
0
12.6%
Raheim Sanders run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 6
50
+17
12.4%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 17 yds to the Alab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
13.4%
Raheim Sanders run for 8 yds to the Alab 25Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 2
OPP 25
0
13.4%
Raheim Sanders run for no gain to the Alab 25Similar
Q3 5:10
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+3
13.0%
KJ Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Alab 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
12.8%
KJ Jefferson run for 8 yds to the Alab 14Similar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 2
OPP 14
+9
12.8%
KJ Jefferson run for 9 yds to the Alab 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
12.8%
Raheim Sanders run for no gain to the Alab 5Similar
Q3 2:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
12.8%
Raheim Sanders run for 2 yds to the Alab 3Similar
Q3 2:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
12.1%
KJ Jefferson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 4Similar
Q3 1:38
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
15.6%
Cam Little 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20DOWNS
5 plays · -22 yds · 0:4585% → 85%
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
15.2%
Jalen Milroe run for 2 yds to the Alab 27Similar
Q3 0:48
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
15.1%
Jalen Milroe run for no gain to the Alab 27Similar
Q3 0:30
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
14.3%
Jalen Milroe pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:25
4TH & 8
OWN 27
-24
14.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 24 yards to the Alab 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 21TD
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q3 0:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
32.5%
Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 22TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 0:5277% → 91%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
23.4%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for no gain to the Alab 25Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
23.7%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Jermaine BurtonSimilar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
24.8%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Alab 20Similar
Q4 14:30
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+77
25.2%
Jalen Milroe run for 77 yds to the Ark 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 0
OPP 3
+2
18.9%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Defensive Offside (2 Yards) to the Ark 1Similar
Q4 14:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
19.6%
Jase McClellan run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 3Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
9.2%
Jase McClellan run for 3 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:2613% → 12%
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
13.1%
KJ Jefferson run for 11 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
13.6%
Raheim Sanders run for 2 yds to the Ark 38Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
13.7%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Jadon HaselwoodSimilar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
13.2%
KJ Jefferson run for no gain to the Ark 38Similar
Q4 12:29
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
12.2%
Max Fletcher punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 24TD
1 play · 72 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+72
2.8%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 72 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 25FG
16 plays · 59 yds · 4:184% → 6%
Q4 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
3.9%
AJ Green run for no gain to the Ark 25Similar
Q4 11:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
3.8%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the Ark 20Similar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
3.8%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+6
3.7%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Jaylen Moody for a loss of 9 yards to the Ark 11 for a 1ST down ALABAMA Penalty, Personal Foul (Henry To'oTo'o) to the Ark 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+13
3.9%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 13 yds to the Ark 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
4.0%
Rashod Dubinion run for a loss of 5 yards to the Ark 34Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 15
OWN 34
+17
3.7%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 17 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
4.2%
Rashod Dubinion run for 2 yds to the Alab 47Similar
Q4 9:17
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+15
4.2%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Alab 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
4.5%
Dominique Johnson run for 5 yds to the Alab 27Similar
Q4 8:36
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+18
4.6%
KJ Jefferson run for 9 yds to the Alab 18 for a 1ST down ALABAMA Penalty, Face Mask (9 yards) (9 Yards) to the Alab 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-7
4.6%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Jaheim Oatis and Tim Smith for a loss of 7 yards to the Alab 16Similar
Q4 7:46
2ND & 0
OPP 16
0
4.9%
Cade Fortin pass incomplete to Matt LandersSimilar
Q4 7:41
3RD & 0
OPP 16
0
4.1%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Rashod DubinionSimilar
Q4 7:38
4TH & 0
OPP 16
+34
6.3%
Cam Little 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 26TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:3495% → 99%
Q4 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
4.7%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 24Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+76
1.2%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 76 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:271% → 1%
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
1.1%
AJ Green run for 3 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
1.0%
Cade Fortin pass incomplete to Matt LandersSimilar
Q4 6:27
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
1.0%
Cade Fortin pass incomplete to Jaedon WilsonSimilar
Q4 6:18
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
1.0%
Max Fletcher punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0599% → 99%
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
0.9%
Roydell Williams run for 1 yd to the Alab 41Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+6
0.8%
Roydell Williams run for 6 yds to the Alab 47Similar
Q4 4:51
3RD & 3
OWN 47
-3
0.8%
Jalen Milroe run for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 44 Jalen Milroe fumbled, recovered by AlabSimilar
Q4 4:40
4TH & 6
OWN 44
+13
0.9%
James Burnip punt for 39 yds for a 1ST down , Bryce Stephens returns for 13 yds to the ARKANSAS 43 for a 1ST down ALABAMA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (-15 Yards) to the Ark 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 29DOWNS
9 plays · 46 yds · 2:191% → 1%
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
1.0%
Rashod Dubinion run for 2 yds to the Ark 47Similar
Q4 4:13
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
1.0%
Cade Fortin pass incomplete to Ketron Jackson Jr.Similar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+9
1.0%
Cade Fortin run for 9 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+11
1.0%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Matt Landers for 11 yds to the Alab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+16
1.1%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 16 yds to the Alab 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
1.2%
Cade Fortin pass incomplete to Matt LandersSimilar
Q4 2:57
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
1.1%
Cade Fortin pass incomplete to Jaedon WilsonSimilar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+5
1.1%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Nathan Bax for 5 yds to the Alab 12Similar
Q4 2:06
4TH & 5
OPP 12
+3
1.0%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 3 yds to the Alab 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 30END OF GAME
3 plays · 13 yds · 1:49100% → 100%
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
0.5%
Trey Sanders run for 1 yd to the Alab 10Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+7
0.5%
Trey Sanders run for 7 yds to the Alab 17Similar
Q4 0:01
3RD & 2
OWN 17
+5
0.5%
Trey Sanders run for 5 yds to the Alab 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:19
Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+17.7
TD · Q4 14:09
Jase McClellan run for 3 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)
-10.4
TD · Q4 12:17
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 72 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)
-9.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com