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TLSA

Tulsa 27 at Ole Miss 35

MISS
2022 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2022 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreTLSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:04 · Fraser Masin punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Keylon Stokes at the Tulsa 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+40.5+20.30−20.3−40.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 154Pregame prior+10.3Home team on offense+16.0Garbage-time factor+9.0Score differential+3.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.6Time remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:25: Quinshon Judkins 4 Yd Run (Jonathan Cruz Kick) — MISS win probability +2.7 pts (now 87%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:31: Malik Heath 31 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Jonathan Cruz Kick) — MISS win probability +3.3 pts (now 89%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:01: Quinshon Judkins 1 Yd Run (Jonathan Cruz Kick) — MISS win probability +3.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:25: Jonathan Mingo 31 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Jonathan Cruz Kick) — MISS win probability +4.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:38: Isaiah Epps 17 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Zack Long Kick) — TLSA win probability +5.9 pts (now 13%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 6 of 6TLSA made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 6:57MISS 4th & 11 at MISS 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.2%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:45MISS 4th & 2 at TLSA 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    84.2%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:37TLSA 4th & 2 at TLSA 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:59TLSA 4th & 10 at TLSA 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:42TLSA 4th & 4 at MISS 39, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    9.3%−0.4
    36% to make
    Punt
    9.1%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q3 10:16TLSA 4th & 2 at MISS 2, down 18
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.1%−1.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−5.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:00MISS 4th & 11 at TLSA 48, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.1%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:27TLSA 4th & 5 at TLSA 15, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.6%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.9%
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:38TLSA 4th & 7 at MISS 17, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.3%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    5.8%
    80% to make
    Punt
    1.7%−4.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:04MISS 4th & 8 at MISS 44, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.1%−0.9
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.0%
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:27TLSA 4th & 6 at TLSA 24, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.4%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:20MISS 4th & 18 at MISS 40, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.6%−2.6
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:32TLSA 4th & 10 at TLSA 36, down 8
    Close callPunted · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.9%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:24MISS 4th & 3 at MISS 25, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%−<0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:23TLSA 4th & 15 at TLSA 23, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%−0.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 5 of 5TLSA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 13:21MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:55TLSA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:17TLSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:25MISS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 10:31MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 5:01MISS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 1:25MISS Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:38TLSA Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:0990% → 90%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
90.4%
Jaxson Dart run for 12 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+25
90.4%
Jaxson Dart run for 25 yds to the Tulsa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
90.3%
Zach Evans run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+8
90.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 8 yds to the Tulsa 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
90.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Michael Trigg for 3 yds to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+20
90.4%
Zach Evans 20 Yd Run (Jonathan Cruz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2TD
14 plays · 87 yds · 5:0510% → 12%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
90.2%
Jordan Ford run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 17Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+9
90.2%
Davis Brin pass complete to Isaiah Epps for 9 yds to the Tulsa 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
90.1%
Jordan Ford run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+3
90.0%
Jordan Ford run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q1 10:32
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+4
89.8%
Davis Brin pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 4 yds to the Tulsa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
89.7%
Jordan Ford run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q1 9:59
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+1
89.6%
Jordan Ford run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+1
89.6%
Steven Anderson run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
89.5%
Davis Brin pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 15 yds to the Miss 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
89.4%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+37
89.3%
Davis Brin pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 37 yds to the Miss 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
88.1%
Davis Brin 1 Yd Run (Zack Long Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:4388% → 88%
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-4
88.4%
Zach Evans run for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 17Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 14
OWN 17
+3
88.3%
Zach Evans run for 3 yds to the Miss 20Similar
Q1 6:57
3RD & 11
OWN 20
0
88.1%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Jordan WatkinsSimilar
Q1 6:57
4TH & 11
OWN 20
+1
88.0%
Fraser Masin punt for 46 yds , Keylon Stokes returns for 1 yd to the Tulsa 21 TULSA Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Tulsa 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 4TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:0412% → 16%
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
87.9%
Jordan Ford run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+18
87.8%
Davis Brin pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 18 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
87.3%
Jordan Ford run for 7 yds to the Miss 47Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+4
87.1%
Davis Brin run for 4 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+17
86.8%
Steven Anderson run for 17 yds to the Miss 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
86.4%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+6
86.3%
Jordan Ford run for 6 yds to the Miss 20Similar
Q1 3:17
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+20
84.0%
Isaiah Epps 20 Yd pass from Davis Brin (Zack Long Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 3:4585% → 87%
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.7%
TEAM run for no gain to the Miss 29 TEAM fumbled, recovered by MissSimilar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+15
84.6%
TULSA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Miss 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
84.6%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:21
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
84.3%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Michael TriggSimilar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+8
83.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Michael Trigg for 8 yds to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q1 1:45
4TH & 2
OPP 48
+4
84.1%
Jaxson Dart run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
84.4%
Quinshon Judkins run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+1
84.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q1 0:50
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+13
84.0%
Jaxson Dart run for 13 yds to the Tulsa 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
84.3%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q1 0:10
1ST & 15
OPP 28
+19
83.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Malik Heath for 19 yds to the Tulsa 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
84.0%
Quinshon Judkins run for no gain to the Tulsa 9Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
83.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Michael Trigg for 5 yds to the Tulsa 4Similar
Q2 14:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
86.6%
Quinshon Judkins 4 Yd Run (Jonathan Cruz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 2:2315% → 16%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
85.0%
Jordan Ford run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-1
84.6%
Steven Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q2 12:57
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-5
84.7%
TULSA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q2 12:10
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+9
84.6%
Davis Brin pass complete to Malachai Jones for 9 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q2 11:37
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+6
84.2%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 37 yds , Jordan Watkins returns for 6 yds to the Miss 36 Jordan Watkins fumbled, recovered by Miss Jordan WatkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7TD
4 plays · 64 yds · 0:4985% → 89%
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
85.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for 9 yds to the Miss 45Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+1
85.6%
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the Miss 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+23
85.4%
Quinshon Judkins run for 23 yds to the Tulsa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
88.7%
Malik Heath 31 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Jonathan Cruz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 1:2113% → 12%
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
87.4%
Bill Jackson run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
86.9%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Malachai JonesSimilar
Q2 9:58
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+6
87.3%
OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Offside (6 Yards) to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
86.8%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Isaiah EppsSimilar
Q2 9:19
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
87.0%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q2 9:11
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
87.3%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q2 8:59
4TH & 10
OWN 46
+46
87.9%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 46 yds , Jordan Watkins returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9TD
13 plays · 93 yds · 3:3988% → 92%
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-1
87.5%
Zach Evans run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 6Similar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 11
OWN 6
+17
87.7%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the Miss 8 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Jayden Simon) to the Miss 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
87.9%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:49
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+15
87.8%
Dart, Jaxson pass incomplete to Heath, Malik, PENALTY TULSA roughing passer 15 yards to the OLEMISS38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OLEMISS.Similar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
88.3%
Zach Evans run for 7 yds to the Miss 45Similar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+6
88.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 6 yds to the Tulsa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
88.5%
Zach Evans run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+10
88.6%
Quinshon Judkins run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
88.7%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+23
88.6%
Quinshon Judkins run for 23 yds to the Tulsa 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
88.6%
Quinshon Judkins run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 1Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
88.6%
Quinshon Judkins run for no gain to the Tulsa 1Similar
Q2 5:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.7%
Quinshon Judkins 1 Yd Run (Jonathan Cruz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 10INT
10 plays · 36 yds · 3:089% → 10%
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
90.9%
Steven Anderson run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+9
90.6%
Steven Anderson run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
90.7%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 1
50
+5
90.2%
Steven Anderson run for 5 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
90.3%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Colby Powers for 1 yd to the Miss 44Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+5
90.4%
Bill Jackson run for 5 yds to the Miss 39Similar
Q2 1:51
3RD & 4
OPP 39
0
90.3%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:42
4TH & 4
OPP 39
-19
90.4%
Braylon Braxton pass intercepted AJ Finley return for 19 yds to the Tulsa 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11TD
2 plays · 46 yds · 0:1093% → 97%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
92.5%
Jaxson Dart run for 15 yds to the Tulsa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
97.1%
Jonathan Mingo 31 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Jonathan Cruz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 12END OF HALF
8 plays · 65 yds · 1:164% → 7%
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+47
96.1%
Bill Jackson run for 47 yds to the Miss 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
95.3%
Bill Jackson run for 4 yds to the Miss 24Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+7
95.2%
Steven Anderson run for 7 yds to the Miss 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
95.2%
Braylon Braxton run for 7 yds to the Miss 10Similar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 3
OPP 10
0
95.4%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Isaiah EppsSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 10
+28
93.0%
Zack Long 28 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13FG
12 plays · 73 yds · 4:387% → 9%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
93.4%
Jordan Ford run for 11 yds to the Tulsa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
93.1%
Braylon Braxton run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+11
93.0%
Braylon Braxton run for 11 yds to the Miss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
92.7%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Colby Powers for 9 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+19
92.5%
Steven Anderson run for 4 yds to the Miss 36 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Miss 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
92.1%
Jordan Ford run for 6 yds to the Miss 15Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+7
92.3%
Jordan Ford run for 7 yds to the Miss 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
92.3%
Steven Anderson run for 7 yds to the Miss 1Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
92.4%
Steven Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 2Similar
Q3 10:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
92.9%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
90.9%
Zack Long 20 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 2:0693% → 93%
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
93.0%
Jaxson Dart run for 17 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
93.3%
Zach Evans run for 2 yds to the Miss 44Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+6
93.7%
Zach Evans run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 2
50
+3
93.5%
Jaxson Dart run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
93.9%
Zach Evans run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 11
OPP 48
0
93.8%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:08
3RD & 11
OPP 48
0
93.5%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Jonathan MingoSimilar
Q3 8:00
4TH & 11
OPP 48
0
93.1%
Fraser Masin punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Keylon Stokes at the Tulsa 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:238% → 7%
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
92.3%
Bill Jackson run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 13Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+2
92.5%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Bill Jackson for 2 yds to the Tulsa 15Similar
Q3 6:37
3RD & 5
OWN 15
0
93.0%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:27
4TH & 5
OWN 15
+1
93.1%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 40 yds , Jordan Watkins returns for 1 yd to the Miss 46 Jordan Watkins fumbled, recovered by Miss Jordan WatkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 16FUMBLE
8 plays · 45 yds · 2:0794% → 95%
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+24
94.0%
Quinshon Judkins run for 24 yds to the Tulsa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
94.1%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:51
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
94.2%
Quinshon Judkins run for no gain to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 10
OPP 30
0
95.2%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete OLE MISS Penalty, Illegal Touching ( Yards) to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+15
95.2%
TULSA Penalty, Personal Foul (Joseph Anderson) to the Tulsa 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
95.4%
Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 12Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 7
OPP 12
-2
95.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 14Similar
Q3 4:08
3RD & 9
OPP 14
+5
95.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Quinshon Judkins for 5 yds Quinshon Judkins fumbled, recovered by Tulsa , return for a loss of 6 yards to the Tulsa 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 17TD
12 plays · 97 yds · 4:207% → 13%
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
93.5%
Steven Anderson run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 5Similar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+16
93.7%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Isaiah Epps for 16 yds to the Tulsa 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
93.2%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Malachai Jones for 7 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q3 2:32
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+1
93.5%
Steven Anderson run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q3 1:40
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+17
93.8%
Braylon Braxton run for 17 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
93.6%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Isaiah Epps for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Miss 39 for a 1ST down. Otis Reese ejected for targeting.Similar
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
93.5%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 8 yds JuanCarlos Santana fumbled, recovered by Tulsa JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 2
OPP 31
+11
92.6%
Steven Anderson run for 11 yds to the Miss 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
92.6%
Steven Anderson run for 3 yds to the Miss 17Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 7
OPP 17
0
92.6%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q4 14:46
3RD & 7
OPP 17
0
93.3%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q4 14:38
4TH & 7
OPP 17
+17
87.4%
Isaiah Epps 17 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Zack Long Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 2:1690% → 90%
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
90.0%
Jaxson Dart run for 2 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
90.0%
Jaxson Dart run for 3 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q4 13:50
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+12
89.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Malik Heath for 12 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
91.0%
Jaxson Dart run for 2 yds to the Miss 44Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+5
91.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for 5 yds to the Miss 49Similar
Q4 12:38
3RD & 3
OWN 49
0
90.6%
Quinshon Judkins run for no gain to the Miss 49Similar
Q4 12:28
4TH & 3
OWN 49
-5
90.0%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Jeremy James) to the Miss 44Similar
Q4 12:04
4TH & 8
OWN 44
0
89.6%
Fraser Masin punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Keylon Stokes at the Tulsa 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2512% → 10%
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
88.2%
Steven Anderson run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q4 11:12
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
87.8%
Steven Anderson run for no gain to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q4 10:39
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
88.9%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q4 10:27
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
89.8%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:5591% → 90%
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
90.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Malik Heath for 13 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
91.5%
Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+4
91.8%
Quinshon Judkins run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q4 9:25
3RD & 3
OPP 45
0
91.3%
Quinshon Judkins run for no gain to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q4 9:00
4TH & 3
OPP 45
-15
90.5%
OLE MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Miss 40Similar
Q4 8:20
4TH & 18
OWN 40
0
89.7%
Fraser Masin punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulsa 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 2:4010% → 9%
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+8
89.8%
Bill Jackson run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 17Similar
Q4 7:50
2ND & 2
OWN 17
+5
89.3%
Bill Jackson run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+14
89.8%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 14 yds to the Tulsa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
88.6%
Bill Jackson run for no gain to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
89.3%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q4 5:47
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
90.9%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q4 5:32
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
91.3%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 61 yds, downed at the Miss 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 22 yds · 0:4694% → 93%
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+15
93.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 15 yds to the Miss 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
93.8%
Jaxson Dart run for 7 yds to the Miss 25Similar
Q4 4:43
2ND & 3
OWN 25
0
94.1%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Malik HeathSimilar
Q4 4:36
3RD & 3
OWN 25
0
93.8%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Malik HeathSimilar
Q4 4:24
4TH & 3
OWN 25
-2
92.7%
Fraser Masin punt for 45 yds , Keylon Stokes returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:5210% → 8%
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
90.3%
Steven Anderson run for no gain to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q4 3:41
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
91.1%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:32
3RD & 10
OWN 28
0
91.6%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:32
4TH & 10
OWN 28
-5
92.0%
TULSA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q4 3:23
4TH & 15
OWN 23
0
92.1%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jordan Watkins at the Miss 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 24END OF GAME
11 plays · 27 yds · 3:1095% → 98%
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
95.0%
Quinshon Judkins run for 8 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+1
95.9%
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the Miss 44Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+1
95.9%
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
96.4%
Jaxson Dart run for 2 yds to the Miss 47Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+7
97.4%
Quinshon Judkins run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q4 1:05
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+11
97.6%
Jaxson Dart run for 11 yds to the Tulsa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
97.7%
Quinshon Judkins run for no gain to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-3
97.7%
Quinshon Judkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:38
Isaiah Epps 17 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Zack Long Kick)
-5.9
TD · Q2 1:25
Jonathan Mingo 31 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Jonathan Cruz Kick)
+4.6
TD · Q2 10:31
Malik Heath 31 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Jonathan Cruz Kick)
+3.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com