2022 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2022 · Sanford Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · UGA
modelUGA aheadKENT aheadconfidence bandkey playUGA scoreKENT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 0:24 · Josh Smith pass complete to Zayin West for 14 yds to the KntSt 48 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 11:30: Collin Schlee pass complete to Devontez Walker for 56 yds for a TD, (Andrew Glass KICK) — KENT win probability +0.6 pts (now 2%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:08: Stetson Bennett run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +0.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- FG · Q3 1:44: Jack Podlesny 32 yd FG GOOD — UGA win probability +0.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q4 12:13: Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — KENT win probability +3.8 pts (now 7%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- TD · Q4 5:30: Kendall Milton run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +2.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UGA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5KENT made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 12:47KENT 4th & 6 at KENT 35, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.9%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.9%average punt
- Q1 10:55KENT 4th & 12 at UGA 28, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.0% before the snapGo for it0.9%−0.123% to convertField goalTheir call0.9%60% to makePunt0.6%−0.3average punt
- Q1 6:51KENT 4th & 10 at KENT 5, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snapGo for it1.2%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.3%average punt
- Q1 1:07UGA 4th & 18 at KENT 22, up 6Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.2% before the snapGo for it98.0%−0.212% to convertField goalTheir call98.2%72% to makePunt97.7%−0.4average punt
- Q2 14:49KENT 4th & 6 at KENT 29, down 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snapGo for it1.7%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.8%average punt
- Q2 13:21UGA 4th & 1 at midfield, up 9Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.0%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt97.8%−0.2average punt
- Q2 3:39KENT 4th & 4 at UGA 28, down 9Close callKicked a field goal · 3.2% before the snapGo for it3.2%48% to convertField goalTheir call3.1%−0.160% to makePunt2.3%−0.9average punt
- Q3 14:18KENT 4th & 3 at KENT 24, down 13Close callPunted · 2.7% before the snapGo for it2.8%51% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 10:41UGA 4th & 5 at KENT 14, up 13Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.1% before the snapGo for it96.9%−0.139% to convertField goalTheir call97.0%84% to makePunt95.7%−1.3average punt
- Q3 5:12KENT 4th & 5 at UGA 5, down 16Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.5% before the snapGo for it3.4%−<0.133% to convertField goalTheir call3.4%92% to makePunt1.8%−1.6average punt
- Q3 1:44UGA 4th & 10 at KENT 15, up 13Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.5% before the snapGo for it95.9%−0.427% to convertField goalTheir call96.3%83% to makePunt93.9%−2.5average punt
- Q3 0:24KENT 4th & 1 at KENT 34, down 16Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.4%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt3.0%−0.3average punt
- Q4 5:30UGA 4th & 1 at KENT 1, up 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call93.7%59% to convertField goal92.6%−1.194% to makePunt89.8%−3.8average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UGA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4KENT made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q1 14:41UGA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:30KENT Touchdown, down 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call2.9%97% to makeGo for two2.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:15UGA Touchdown, up 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.7%97% to makeGo for two97.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:08UGA Touchdown, up 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.2%97% to makeGo for two97.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:13KENT Touchdown, down 10 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick6.7%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call6.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:30UGA Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.1%97% to makeGo for two97.8%−0.345% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUGADrive 1TD3 plays · 75 yds · 0:11100% → 100%
KENTDrive 2FUMBLE5 plays · 4 yds · 1:131% → 1%
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-6
99.5%
Collin Schlee sacked by Jamon Dumas-Johnson for a loss of 6 yards to the KntSt 25Similar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 5
OWN 36
-1
99.5%
Collin Schlee sacked by Jamon Dumas-Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the KntSt 35Similar
Q1 12:47
4TH & 6
OWN 35
+5
99.5%
Josh Smith punt for 44 yds , Ladd McConkey returns for 5 yds to the Geo 26 Ladd McConkey fumbled, recovered by KntSt Bryce SheppertSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 3FG4 plays · -2 yds · 1:471% → 1%
Q1 11:02
3RD & 8
OPP 24
-4
99.4%
Collin Schlee sacked by Nolan Smith for a loss of 4 yards to the Geo 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 4INT8 plays · 44 yds · 2:1199% → 99%
Q1 9:19
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+13
99.3%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Brock Bowers for 13 yds to the KntSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
99.3%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kenny McIntosh for 10 yds to the KntSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
99.3%
Stetson Bennett pass intercepted Montre Miller return for no gain to the KntSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 5SF5 plays · 0 yds · 1:351% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 6FG14 plays · 36 yds · 5:2899% → 99%
Q1 6:03
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+9
99.2%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Dillon Bell for 9 yds to the Geo 49Similar
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
99.1%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kenny McIntosh for 6 yds to the KntSt 32Similar
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
99.1%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 4 yds to the KntSt 23Similar
Q1 3:08
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+9
99.0%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 9 yds to the KntSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:50
3RD & 8
OPP 12
-10
98.9%
Stetson Bennett sacked by CJ West for a loss of 10 yards to the KntSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:081% → 1%
UGADrive 8FUMBLE7 plays · 27 yds · 2:4199% → 99%
Q2 14:12
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+3
98.7%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kenny McIntosh for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-3
98.7%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Brock Bowers for 7 yds to the Geo 41 GEORGIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Xavier Truss) to the Geo 49Similar
Q2 12:18
1ST & 13
OWN 49
+14
98.5%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Brock Bowers for 14 yds to the KntSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
98.6%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 5 yds Ladd McConkey fumbled, forced by Marvin Pierre, recovered by KntSt Marvin PierreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 9TD2 plays · 68 yds · 0:212% → 2%
UGADrive 10TD9 plays · 67 yds · 3:0098% → 98%
Q2 11:08
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+23
98.0%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Darnell Washington for 23 yds to the KntSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+11
97.9%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kearis Jackson for 11 yds to the KntSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:19
2ND & 0
OPP 5
+3
97.8%
Bennett, Stetson pass incomplete to Rosemy-Jacksaint, Marcus, PENALTY KENTST pass interference (West, CJ) 3 yards to the KENTST2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GEORGIA.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 11FG13 plays · 47 yds · 4:232% → 3%
Q2 7:16
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+10
98.1%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Devontez Walker for 10 yds to the KntSt 34Similar
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
97.9%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Devontez Walker for no gain to the KntSt 39Similar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+27
97.8%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Marquez Cooper for 27 yds to the Geo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 12TD13 plays · 72 yds · 3:0997% → 98%
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
97.2%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kenny McIntosh for 6 yds to the Geo 34Similar
Q2 2:53
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+6
97.1%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kenny McIntosh for 6 yds to the Geo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+6
97.1%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Dominick Blaylock for 6 yds to the KntSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
97.1%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Daijun Edwards for 8 yds to the KntSt 38Similar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+13
97.1%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint for 13 yds to the KntSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+20
97.1%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Brock Bowers for 20 yds to the KntSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 13END OF HALF2 plays · -1 yds · 0:002% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:322% → 2%
UGADrive 15FG8 plays · 55 yds · 3:2898% → 98%
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+20
98.1%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 20 yds to the KntSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 16FG16 plays · 70 yds · 5:222% → 3%
Q3 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
97.8%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Devontez Walker for 11 yds to the KntSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
97.6%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Devontez Walker for 10 yds to the Geo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+13
97.2%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Marquez Cooper for 13 yds to the Geo 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+12
97.0%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Devontez Walker for 12 yds to the Geo 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 17FG9 plays · 45 yds · 3:1698% → 98%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+21
97.8%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 21 yds to the KntSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:41
2ND & 2
OPP 31
+16
97.7%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Darnell Washington for 16 yds to the KntSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-15
97.7%
Milton, Kendall rush for 10 yards to the KENTST5, PENALTY GEORGIA illegal contact (McClendon, Warren) 15 yards to the KENTST30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 22
OPP 27
+12
97.6%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint for 12 yds to the KntSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 18TD13 plays · 75 yds · 4:202% → 7%
Q3 0:24
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+14
97.6%
Josh Smith pass complete to Zayin West for 14 yds to the KntSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
97.1%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Dante Cephas for 6 yds to the Geo 24Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+6
96.9%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Kris Leach for 6 yds to the Geo 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.1%
Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 19TD15 plays · 75 yds · 6:3995% → 99%
Q4 11:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
94.9%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kenny McIntosh for 4 yds to the Geo 29Similar
Q4 11:24
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+13
94.5%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Dominick Blaylock for 13 yds to the Geo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
95.3%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Brock Bowers for 6 yds to the KntSt 26Similar
Q4 9:17
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+10
95.2%
Milton, Kendall rush for no gain to the KENTST26, PENALTY KENTST holding (Williams, Macyo) 10 yards to the KENTST16, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GEORGIA.Similar
Q4 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
95.7%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 6 yds to the KntSt 10Similar
Q4 6:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
96.0%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Daijun Edwards for 1 yd to the KntSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 20INT3 plays · 0 yds · 0:151% → 1%
UGADrive 21Uncategorized7 plays · 21 yds · 4:2799% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:13
Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-3.8
TD · Q4 5:30
Kendall Milton run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)
+2.7
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+0.9