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ARK

Arkansas 21 at Texas A&M 23

TA&M
2022 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2022 · AT&T Stadium
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Win probability · TA&M
modelTA&M aheadARK aheadconfidence bandkey playTA&M scoreARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:45 · Max Fletcher punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Ainias Smith at the TexAM 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+18.5+9.30−9.3−18.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 82Home team on offense−2.8Pregame prior+4.0Score differential−2.2Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0Blowout margin+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:45: Evan Stewart 10 Yd pass from Max Johnson (Randy Bond Kick) — TA&M win probability +10.1 pts (now 51%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:11: Demani Richardson 82 Yd Fumble Return (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — TA&M win probability +7.7 pts (now 48%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:41: Devon Achane 9 Yd Run (Randy Bond Kick) — TA&M win probability +13.1 pts (now 73%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:05: KJ Jefferson 6 Yd Run (Cam Little Kick) — ARK win probability +25.0 pts (now 45%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:30: TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexAM 20 — TA&M win probability +14.2 pts (now 83%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TA&M made the numbers' call on 5 of 7ARK made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 13:35ARK 4th & 5 at ARK 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:27TA&M 4th & 13 at TA&M 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.5%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:32TA&M 4th & 1 at TA&M 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.0%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:11TA&M 4th & 7 at TA&M 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.5%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:52ARK 4th & 8 at ARK 26, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%−1.0
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.9%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:59TA&M 4th & 6 at TA&M 38, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.5%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:08ARK 4th & 11 at TA&M 39, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    58.7%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:57ARK 4th & 3 at TA&M 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    54.7%−2.2
    23% to make
    Punt
    55.7%−1.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:45ARK 4th & 12 at ARK 23, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%−2.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:57ARK 4th & 3 at ARK 32, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.5%−0.6
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:48TA&M 4th & 10 at ARK 14, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.3%−2.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.5%
    84% to make
    Punt
    60.2%−11.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:12ARK 4th & 9 at ARK 39, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%−1.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:54TA&M 4th & 6 at TA&M 31, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.8%−1.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:27ARK 4th & 1 at TA&M 37, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    12.0%−4.7
    40% to make
    Punt
    11.4%−5.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:30TA&M 4th & 9 at ARK 36, up 2
    Close callKicked a field goal · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.6%
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.7%−0.9
    42% to make
    Punt
    64.9%−2.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:30ARK 4th & 13 at TA&M 24, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%−18.4
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.2%
    68% to make
    Punt
    14.4%−26.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TA&M made the numbers' call on 2 of 3ARK made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:44ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:25ARK Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:45TA&M Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:11TA&M Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    53.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    53.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:41TA&M Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:05ARK Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.4%−0.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:2542% → 42%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
57.8%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 10 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
57.8%
Raheim Sanders run for 1 yd to the Ark 36Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+4
57.8%
KJ Jefferson run for 4 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q1 13:49
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
57.8%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Ketron Jackson Jr.Similar
Q1 13:35
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
57.9%
Max Fletcher punt for 25 yds, downed at the TexAM 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 2:0858% → 58%
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
57.9%
Devon Achane run for 5 yds to the TexAM 40Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 5
OWN 40
-5
58.1%
Johnson, Max pass incomplete to Achane, Devon, PENALTY TEXASAM illegal shift 5 yards to the TEXASAM35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:51
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
57.9%
Devon Achane run for 5 yds to the TexAM 40Similar
Q1 12:10
3RD & 5
OWN 40
-8
58.0%
Max Johnson sacked by Zach Williams and Drew Sanders for a loss of 8 yards to the TexAM 32Similar
Q1 11:27
4TH & 13
OWN 32
0
57.7%
Nik Constantinou punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ark 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3TD
5 plays · 69 yds · 1:4342% → 45%
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
57.9%
Raheim Sanders run for 6 yds to the Ark 37Similar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+3
57.6%
Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q1 10:44
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+2
57.6%
Raheim Sanders run for 2 yds to the Ark 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+26
57.5%
KJ Jefferson run for 26 yds to the TexAM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
55.4%
Ketron Jackson Jr. 32 Yd pass from KJ Jefferson (Cam Little Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:1256% → 55%
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
56.1%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the TexAM 20Similar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-4
56.1%
Devon Achane run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexAM 16Similar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+7
55.8%
Max Johnson pass complete to Devon Achane for 7 yds to the TexAM 23Similar
Q1 8:26
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+11
55.2%
Max Johnson run for 11 yds to the TexAM 34Similar
Q1 7:32
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
55.0%
Nik Constantinou punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Bryce Stephens at the Ark 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5TD
7 plays · 78 yds · 2:0745% → 50%
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
54.9%
KJ Jefferson run for 6 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q1 7:09
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+8
54.4%
AJ Green run for 8 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
54.2%
AJ Green run for 9 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q1 6:35
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+3
53.8%
AJ Green run for 3 yds to the Ark 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
53.7%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Warren ThompsonSimilar
Q1 6:04
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-4
53.6%
AJ Green run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 44Similar
Q1 5:25
3RD & 14
OWN 44
+56
49.9%
Warren Thompson 56 Yd pass from KJ Jefferson (Cam Little Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 6FUMBLE
6 plays · 3 yds · 2:1451% → 48%
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
51.0%
Max Johnson run for no gain to the TexAM 25Similar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
50.5%
Max Johnson pass complete to Donovan Green for 8 yds to the TexAM 33Similar
Q1 4:01
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-5
50.5%
Johnson, Max pass complete to Crownover, Earnest for 9 yards to the TEXASAM42, PENALTY TEXASAM illegal shift 5 yards to the TEXASAM28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:29
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
48.6%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Evan StewartSimilar
Q1 3:11
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+47
48.2%
Nik Constantinou punt for 47 yds , Bryce Stephens returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 24 Bryce Stephens fumbled, recovered by Ark Collin SutherlandSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1952% → 52%
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
48.2%
Raheim Sanders run for 1 yd to the Ark 25Similar
Q1 2:42
2ND & 9
OWN 25
0
47.8%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Warren ThompsonSimilar
Q1 2:36
3RD & 9
OWN 25
+1
47.9%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Warren Thompson for 1 yd to the Ark 26Similar
Q1 1:52
4TH & 8
OWN 26
0
47.6%
Max Fletcher punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Ainias Smith at the TexAM 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5348% → 47%
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
47.9%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Evan StewartSimilar
Q1 1:47
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+4
47.7%
Devon Achane run for 4 yds to the TexAM 38Similar
Q1 1:11
3RD & 6
OWN 38
0
47.0%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Ainias SmithSimilar
Q1 0:59
4TH & 6
OWN 38
0
46.5%
Nik Constantinou punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Bryce Stephens at the Ark 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9PUNT
11 plays · 46 yds · 3:5154% → 58%
Q1 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
46.1%
KJ Jefferson run for 5 yds to the Ark 20Similar
Q1 0:36
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+1
45.7%
Dominique Johnson run for 1 yd to the Ark 21Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+14
45.4%
KJ Jefferson run for 14 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
44.5%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Trey KnoxSimilar
Q2 14:34
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+12
44.6%
Dominique Johnson run for 12 yds to the Ark 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
43.6%
Dominique Johnson run for 8 yds to the TexAM 45Similar
Q2 14:03
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+7
43.2%
Dominique Johnson run for 7 yds to the TexAM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
42.5%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Malik HornsbySimilar
Q2 13:27
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-1
42.5%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Malik Hornsby for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 39Similar
Q2 13:03
3RD & 11
OPP 39
0
42.4%
Malik Hornsby run for no gain to the TexAM 39Similar
Q2 12:08
4TH & 11
OPP 39
0
42.3%
Max Fletcher punt for 32 yds, downed at the TexAM 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 10TD
7 plays · 93 yds · 3:2342% → 51%
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+63
42.3%
Devon Achane run for 63 yds to the Ark 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
43.5%
Devon Achane run for 5 yds to the Ark 25Similar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+10
43.1%
Devon Achane run for 10 yds to the Ark 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
42.6%
Max Johnson run for 4 yds to the Ark 11Similar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+1
41.7%
Devon Achane run for 1 yd to the Ark 10Similar
Q2 8:45
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+10
51.0%
Evan Stewart 10 Yd pass from Max Johnson (Randy Bond Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 11FUMBLE RETURN TD
13 plays · 72 yds · 5:3453% → 52%
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
47.5%
Raheim Sanders run for 12 yds to the Ark 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
46.4%
Raheim Sanders run for 2 yds to the Ark 39Similar
Q2 8:06
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+6
44.4%
KJ Jefferson run for 6 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q2 7:29
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+2
44.1%
KJ Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Ark 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
43.3%
Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 7
50
+4
42.8%
Raheim Sanders run for 4 yds to the TexAM 46Similar
Q2 5:42
3RD & 3
OPP 46
0
42.6%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Nathan Bax for no gain to the TexAM 46Similar
Q2 4:57
4TH & 3
OPP 46
+8
43.1%
KJ Jefferson run for 8 yds to the TexAM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+16
41.4%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 16 yds to the TexAM 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
40.7%
Raheim Sanders run for 7 yds to the TexAM 15Similar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+12
40.5%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 12 yds to the TexAM 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+82
48.1%
Demani Richardson 82 Yd Fumble Return (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · -2 yds · 1:2648% → 45%
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
52.5%
AJ Green run for no gain to the Ark 25Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
52.6%
KJ Jefferson run for 5 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q2 2:07
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-7
52.2%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Chris Russell Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the Ark 23Similar
Q2 1:45
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
54.9%
Max Fletcher punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Ainias Smith at the TexAM 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 13END OF HALF
9 plays · 26 yds · 1:4152% → 55%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
52.0%
Max Johnson pass complete to Devon Achane for 4 yds to the TexAM 36Similar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+3
53.7%
Max Johnson pass complete to Evan Stewart for 18 yds to the TEXASAM 46 TEXAS A&M Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the TexAM 39Similar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+5
54.4%
Max Johnson run for 5 yds to the TexAM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
54.3%
Max Johnson pass complete to Devon Achane for 4 yds to the TexAM 48Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 6
OWN 48
-5
54.8%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TexAM 43Similar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 11
OWN 43
+15
52.4%
Johnson, Max pass incomplete to Smith, Ainias, PENALTY ARKANSAS pass interference 15 yards to the ARKANSAS42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXASAM.Similar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
55.2%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
55.0%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 14TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 3:1955% → 73%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
55.0%
Johnson, Max pass incomplete to Stewart, Evan, PENALTY ARKANSAS holding 10 yards to the TEXASAM40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXASAM.Similar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
57.5%
Max Johnson run for 8 yds to the TexAM 48Similar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+4
58.2%
Devon Achane run for 4 yds to the Ark 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+26
58.5%
Max Johnson pass complete to Donovan Green for 26 yds to the Ark 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
59.7%
Devon Achane run for 5 yds to the Ark 17Similar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+8
59.4%
Max Johnson pass complete to Evan Stewart for 8 yds to the Ark 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
72.5%
Devon Achane 9 Yd Run (Randy Bond Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4433% → 31%
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
67.2%
Raheim Sanders run for no gain to the Ark 25Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
67.5%
Raheim Sanders run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 23Similar
Q3 10:55
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+9
69.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 9 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q3 9:57
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
69.0%
Max Fletcher punt for 29 yds, downed at the TexAM 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 16FG
15 plays · 47 yds · 6:0972% → 80%
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
71.7%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Moose Muhammad IIISimilar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+3
71.3%
Devon Achane run for 3 yds to the TexAM 42Similar
Q3 9:06
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+8
70.9%
Max Johnson run for 18 yds to the TEXASAM 40 for a 1ST down TEXAS A&M Penalty, Illegal Block (Moose Muhammad III) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
50
+4
73.3%
Max Johnson run for 4 yds to the Ark 46Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+2
73.6%
Devon Achane run for 2 yds to the Ark 44Similar
Q3 7:40
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+18
73.0%
Max Johnson pass complete to Yulkeith Brown for 18 yds to the Ark 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-10
74.4%
Achane, Devon rush for 9 yards to the ARKANSAS17, PENALTY TEXASAM holding (Robinson, Layden) 10 yards to the ARKANSAS36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:39
1ST & 20
OPP 36
-10
73.2%
Max Johnson sacked by Landon Jackson for a loss of 10 yards to the Ark 46 Max Johnson fumbled, forced by Landon Jackson, recovered by TexAM Layden Robinson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 5:52
2ND & 30
OPP 46
+32
72.7%
Max Johnson pass complete to Ainias Smith for 32 yds to the Ark 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
74.9%
Devon Achane run for 2 yds to the Ark 12Similar
Q3 4:37
2ND & 8
OPP 12
0
75.6%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Evan StewartSimilar
Q3 4:32
3RD & 8
OPP 12
-5
74.3%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, False Start (Reuben Fatheree II) to the Ark 17Similar
Q3 4:32
3RD & 13
OPP 17
+3
73.7%
Devon Achane run for 3 yds to the Ark 14Similar
Q3 3:48
4TH & 10
OPP 14
+31
79.6%
Randy Bond 31 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:3621% → 18%
Q3 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
79.4%
Raheim Sanders run for 7 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q3 3:27
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
78.2%
Raheim Sanders run for 6 yds to the Ark 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
78.4%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Jadon HaselwoodSimilar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+1
78.7%
Raheim Sanders run for 1 yd to the Ark 39Similar
Q3 2:28
3RD & 9
OWN 39
0
79.5%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Warren ThompsonSimilar
Q3 2:12
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
81.6%
Max Fletcher punt for 47 yds, downed at the TexAM 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:1880% → 80%
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+13
80.3%
Devon Achane run for 13 yds to the TexAM 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
81.0%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Chris MarshallSimilar
Q3 1:26
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+8
80.5%
Max Johnson run for 8 yds to the TexAM 35Similar
Q3 1:06
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+1
80.9%
Devon Achane run for 1 yd to the TexAM 36Similar
Q3 0:09
4TH & 1
OWN 36
-5
81.0%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, False Start (Sam Mathews) to the TexAM 31Similar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 6
OWN 31
0
79.9%
Nik Constantinou punt for 43 yds , Bryce Stephens returns for no gain to the Ark 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19TD
13 plays · 74 yds · 4:4919% → 45%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
81.0%
AJ Green run for 7 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q4 14:35
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+6
79.7%
AJ Green run for 6 yds to the Ark 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
79.6%
AJ Green run for 5 yds to the Ark 44Similar
Q4 13:51
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+2
79.2%
AJ Green run for 2 yds to the Ark 46Similar
Q4 13:23
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+8
79.6%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trey Knox for 8 yds to the TexAM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
78.9%
Jadon Haselwood sacked by Shemar Stewart for a loss of 5 yards to the Ark 49Similar
Q4 12:24
2ND & 15
OWN 49
+5
83.4%
KJ Jefferson run for 5 yds to the TexAM 46Similar
Q4 11:56
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+9
82.2%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 9 yds to the TexAM 37Similar
Q4 11:27
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+6
82.6%
KJ Jefferson run for 6 yds to the TexAM 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+14
79.7%
Rashod Dubinion run for 14 yds to the TexAM 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
78.9%
KJ Jefferson run for 8 yds to the TexAM 9Similar
Q4 10:35
2ND & 2
OPP 9
+3
79.7%
Rashod Dubinion run for 3 yds to the TexAM 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
54.8%
KJ Jefferson 6 Yd Run (Cam Little Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 20MISSED FG
9 plays · 39 yds · 3:3566% → 70%
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
65.7%
Max Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 23Similar
Q4 9:23
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
65.2%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Devon AchaneSimilar
Q4 9:15
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+16
63.1%
Max Johnson pass complete to Donovan Green for 16 yds to the TexAM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+24
68.4%
Devon Achane run for 24 yds to the Ark 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-3
71.3%
Max Johnson sacked by Eric Gregory for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 40Similar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 13
OPP 40
+4
68.9%
Max Johnson run for 4 yds to the Ark 36Similar
Q4 6:40
3RD & 9
OPP 36
0
69.8%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Evan StewartSimilar
Q4 6:30
4TH & 9
OPP 36
+53
70.1%
Randy Bond 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 21MISSED FG
11 plays · 40 yds · 5:0039% → 31%
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
61.0%
Dominique Johnson run for 4 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
58.6%
KJ Jefferson run for no gain to the Ark 40Similar
Q4 5:23
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+19
61.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Matt Landers for 19 yds to the TexAM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+10
56.6%
Raheim Sanders run for 10 yds to the TexAM 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+10
56.7%
KJ Jefferson run for 10 yds to the TexAM 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
55.9%
Raheim Sanders run for 5 yds to the TexAM 16Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 5
OPP 16
-9
55.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 9 yards to the TexAM 25 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Ark Raheim SandersSimilar
Q4 2:20
3RD & 14
OPP 25
+1
64.4%
KJ Jefferson run for 1 yd to the TexAM 24Similar
Q4 1:30
4TH & 13
OPP 24
+42
69.2%
Cam Little 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 22END OF GAME
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:5083% → 89%
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-4
83.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexAM 20Similar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 14
OWN 20
+4
82.6%
Devon Achane run for 4 yds to the TexAM 24Similar
Q4 0:40
3RD & 10
OWN 24
-2
89.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:05
KJ Jefferson 6 Yd Run (Cam Little Kick)
-25
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:30
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexAM 20
+14.2
TD · Q3 11:41
Devon Achane 9 Yd Run (Randy Bond Kick)
+13.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com