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VAN

Vanderbilt 38 at Northern Illinois 28

NIU
2022 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2022 · Huskie Stadium
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Win probability · NIU
modelNIU aheadVAN aheadconfidence bandkey playNIU scoreVAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:37 · Harrison Waylee run for 3 yds to the NoIll 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 100Home team on offense+10.9Score differential+2.4Garbage-time factor+4.5Pregame prior+1.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:37: Antario Brown run for 51 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK) — NIU win probability +11.7 pts (now 71%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:37: Ethan Hampton pass complete to Cole Tucker for 70 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK) — NIU win probability +11.3 pts (now 81%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:44: AJ Swann pass complete to Ray Davis for 21 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK) — VAN win probability +12.3 pts (now 28%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:31: AJ Swann pass complete to Will Sheppard for 31 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK) — VAN win probability +28.3 pts (now 52%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:07: AJ Swann pass complete to Will Sheppard for 13 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK) — VAN win probability +25.0 pts (now 72%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NIU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6VAN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q2 3:50VAN 4th & 9 at VAN 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.8%−1.6
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.4%
    average punt
  2. Q3 9:34NIU 4th & 15 at NIU 18, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.7%−2.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.6%
    average punt
  3. Q3 6:44VAN 4th & 4 at NIU 21, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    16.0%−0.3
    74% to make
    Punt
    9.3%−7.0
    average punt
  4. Q3 4:37NIU 4th & 1 at NIU 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    75.3%−1.7
    average punt
  5. Q3 3:16NIU 4th & 8 at NIU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.8%−2.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.4%
    average punt
  6. Q3 1:25VAN 4th & 8 at NIU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.2%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    46.3%−0.9
    40% to make
    Punt
    45.7%−1.5
    average punt
  7. Q4 14:50NIU 4th & 3 at NIU 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    32.9%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q4 12:21VAN 4th & 7 at NIU 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.7%−1.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.8%
    80% to make
    Punt
    63.3%−9.5
    average punt
  9. Q4 9:23NIU 4th & 13 at NIU 42, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.4%−2.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.4%
    average punt
  10. Q4 7:51VAN 4th & 3 at VAN 12, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.6%−0.2
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.8%
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:05NIU 4th & 3 at NIU 41, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.6%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NIU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4VAN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 7:54VAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:56NIU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:12VAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:32NIU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:37NIU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 13:37NIU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:44VAN Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 4:31VAN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 1:07VAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VANDrive 1TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 6:3844% → 47%
Q1 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
55.6%
AJ Swann run for 7 yds to the Vandy 27Similar
Q1 14:06
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+9
55.6%
Ray Davis run for 9 yds to the Vandy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
55.7%
AJ Swann pass complete to Will Sheppard for 15 yds to the NoIll 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
55.5%
Ray Davis run for 6 yds to the NoIll 43Similar
Q1 12:27
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+17
55.5%
AJ Swann pass complete to Ray Davis for 17 yds to the NoIll 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
55.4%
Ray Davis run for 5 yds to the NoIll 21Similar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+3
55.3%
Chase Gillespie run for 3 yds to the NoIll 18Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+4
55.5%
Ray Davis run for 4 yds to the NoIll 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-5
55.4%
PENALTY VAN False Start 5 yards from NIU14 to NIU19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:17
1ST & 15
OPP 19
+8
55.4%
Ray Davis run for 8 yds to the NoIll 11Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+5
55.4%
Ray Davis run for 5 yds to the NoIll 6Similar
Q1 8:24
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+3
55.4%
Chase Gillespie run for 3 yds to the NoIll 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
52.6%
AJ Swann pass complete to Gavin Schoenwald for 3 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 2TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 2:4854% → 58%
Q1 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
53.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Shemar Thornton for 12 yds to the NoIll 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
54.0%
Antario Brown run for 4 yds to the Vandy 49Similar
Q1 6:47
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+13
54.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Messiah Travis for 13 yds to the Vandy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
54.0%
Antario Brown run for 2 yds to the Vandy 34Similar
Q1 5:12
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+33
54.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Fabian McCray for 33 yds to the Vandy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
58.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cole Tucker for 1 yd for a TD, (John Richardson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 3TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:2244% → 52%
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
56.3%
Chase Gillespie run for 8 yds to the Vandy 33Similar
Q1 4:13
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
55.7%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Chase GillespieSimilar
Q1 4:06
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
56.1%
Ray Davis run for 5 yds to the Vandy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
55.7%
Ray Davis run for 5 yds to the Vandy 43Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+9
55.3%
AJ Swann pass complete to Jayden McGowan for 9 yds to the NoIll 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
54.6%
Chase Gillespie run for 4 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
Q1 1:29
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+19
54.6%
AJ Swann pass complete to Will Sheppard for 19 yds to the NoIll 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
54.1%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Ben BresnahanSimilar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+4
54.2%
Ray Davis run for 4 yds to the NoIll 21Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+7
54.5%
AJ Swann pass complete to Will Sheppard for 7 yds to the NoIll 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
53.9%
AJ Swann pass complete to Will Sheppard for 8 yds to the NoIll 6Similar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 2
OPP 6
+3
53.9%
Ray Davis run for 3 yds to the NoIll 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
48.3%
Ray Davis run for 3 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 4TD
19 plays · 75 yds · 8:4051% → 60%
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
50.5%
PENALTY NIU False Start (Potter,Nolan) 5 yards from NIU25 to NIU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:52
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+2
50.3%
Antario Brown run for 2 yds to the NoIll 18Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+9
50.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Fabian McCray for 9 yds to the NoIll 27Similar
Q2 12:47
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+8
49.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Shemar Thornton for 8 yds to the NoIll 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
50.2%
Harrison Waylee run for 2 yds to the NoIll 37Similar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+6
50.1%
Harrison Waylee run for 6 yds to the NoIll 43Similar
Q2 10:50
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+1
50.8%
Harrison Waylee run for 1 yd to the NoIll 42Similar
Q2 10:19
4TH & 3
OWN 42
+5
47.9%
PENALTY VAN Offside 5 yards from NIU42 to NIU47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
49.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Billy Dozier for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 7
50
+27
49.6%
Harrison Waylee run for 12 yds to the NORTHERNIL 38 for a 1ST down VANDERBILT Penalty, Personal Foul (Anfernee Orji) to the Vandy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
50.6%
Rocky Lombardi run for 8 yds to the Vandy 15Similar
Q2 8:57
2ND & 2
OPP 15
0
50.6%
Harrison Waylee run for no gain to the Vandy 15Similar
Q2 7:36
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+4
48.1%
Mason Blakemore run for 4 yds to the Vandy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-5
49.1%
PENALTY NIU False Start (Tewes,Tristen) 5 yards from VAN11 to VAN16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:42
1ST & 15
OPP 16
+3
48.9%
Antario Brown run for 3 yds to the Vandy 13Similar
Q2 6:08
2ND & 12
OPP 13
+9
48.8%
Kacper Rutkiewicz run for 9 yds to the Vandy 4Similar
Q2 5:32
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+4
59.6%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Kacper Rutkiewicz for 4 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:1747% → 44%
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
53.4%
Ray Davis run for 1 yd to the Vandy 32Similar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 9
OWN 32
0
53.7%
AJ Swann pass complete to Ray Davis for no gain to the Vandy 32Similar
Q2 3:56
3RD & 9
OWN 32
0
54.9%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Devin Boddie Jr.Similar
Q2 3:50
4TH & 9
OWN 32
0
55.7%
Matt Hayball punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoIll 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 6TD
7 plays · 81 yds · 3:0457% → 71%
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
57.3%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Fabian McCray for 4 yds to the NoIll 23Similar
Q2 3:14
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+7
57.6%
Harrison Waylee run for 7 yds to the NoIll 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
57.4%
Harrison Waylee run for no gain to the NoIll 30Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+8
57.1%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Cole Tucker for 8 yds to the NoIll 38Similar
Q2 1:27
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+4
58.3%
Harrison Waylee run for 4 yds to the NoIll 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
59.3%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Shemar Thornton for 7 yds to the NoIll 49Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+51
70.9%
Antario Brown run for 51 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 7END OF HALF
5 plays · 23 yds · 0:1532% → 35%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
67.7%
AJ Swann pass complete to Will Sheppard for 9 yds to the Vandy 40Similar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+14
65.7%
AJ Swann pass complete to Will Sheppard for 14 yds to the NoIll 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
64.7%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Will SheppardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 8TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0969% → 81%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.4%
Antario Brown run for no gain to the NoIll 25Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
69.3%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Shemar Thornton for 5 yds to the NoIll 30Similar
Q3 13:37
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+70
80.7%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Cole Tucker for 70 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 9FUMBLE
6 plays · 49 yds · 1:5820% → 20%
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
80.2%
AJ Swann run for 6 yds to the Vandy 31Similar
Q3 12:49
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+23
79.6%
Ray Davis run for 23 yds to the NoIll 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
78.7%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Will SheppardSimilar
Q3 12:06
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+2
79.5%
Ray Davis run for 2 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
Q3 11:23
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+18
80.0%
AJ Swann pass complete to Jayden McGowan for 18 yds Jayden McGowan fumbled, recovered by NoIll CJ BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:3083% → 83%
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
83.1%
Harrison Waylee run for 4 yds to the NoIll 19Similar
Q3 10:34
2ND & 14
OWN 19
+9
83.1%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Cole Tucker for 9 yds to the NoIll 28Similar
Q3 10:06
3RD & 5
OWN 28
0
83.6%
Ethan Hampton pass incomplete to Fabian McCraySimilar
Q3 9:56
4TH & 5
OWN 28
-10
82.9%
(10:05) Foley,Tom rush right for 23 yards gain to the VAN49 (Barton,Jack) PENALTY NIU Holding 10 yards from NIU28 to NIU18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:34
4TH & 15
OWN 18
+23
83.0%
Tom Foley punt for 42 yds , Will Sheppard returns for 23 yds to the NoIll 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 11TD
8 plays · 37 yds · 2:3519% → 28%
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
80.6%
Ray Davis run for no gain to the NoIll 37Similar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+5
81.0%
Ray Davis run for 5 yds to the NoIll 32Similar
Q3 8:06
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+5
80.9%
AJ Swann pass complete to Jayden McGowan for 5 yds to the NoIll 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
80.0%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Will SheppardSimilar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+6
80.7%
Chase Gillespie run for 6 yds to the NoIll 21Similar
Q3 6:54
3RD & 4
OPP 21
0
81.5%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Ray DavisSimilar
Q3 6:44
4TH & 4
OPP 21
+21
71.6%
AJ Swann pass complete to Ray Davis for 21 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 12DOWNS
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:4777% → 77%
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
77.1%
Harrison Waylee run for 5 yds to the NoIll 30Similar
Q3 5:51
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
77.7%
Harrison Waylee run for 3 yds to the NoIll 33Similar
Q3 5:08
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
77.8%
Harrison Waylee run for 1 yd to the NoIll 34Similar
Q3 4:37
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
76.7%
Harrison Waylee run for 3 yds to the NoIll 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 13TD
1 play · 31 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q3 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
48.4%
AJ Swann pass complete to Will Sheppard for 31 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:0458% → 56%
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
58.3%
Ethan Hampton pass incomplete to Cole TuckerSimilar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
58.2%
Ethan Hampton pass incomplete to Shemar ThorntonSimilar
Q3 4:02
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+7
56.4%
Ethan Hampton run for 7 yds to the NoIll 28Similar
Q3 3:24
4TH & 3
OWN 28
-5
56.7%
PENALTY NIU Delay Of Game 5 yards from NIU28 to NIU23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:16
4TH & 8
OWN 23
0
55.6%
Tom Foley punt for 46 yds , Will Sheppard returns for no gain to the Vandy 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 15TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 1:5546% → 72%
Q3 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+31
53.6%
AJ Swann pass complete to Will Sheppard for 31 yds to the NoIll 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
49.5%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Will SheppardSimilar
Q3 2:37
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+1
49.5%
Ray Davis run for 1 yd to the NoIll 38Similar
Q3 2:03
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+1
50.0%
AJ Swann run for 1 yd to the NoIll 37Similar
Q3 1:25
4TH & 8
OPP 37
+24
52.9%
AJ Swann pass complete to Will Sheppard for 24 yds to the NoIll 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
27.9%
AJ Swann pass complete to Will Sheppard for 13 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 16DOWNS
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:5837% → 33%
Q3 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
37.4%
Antario Brown run for 2 yds to the NoIll 30Similar
Q3 0:16
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+5
34.8%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Shemar Thornton for 5 yds to the NoIll 35Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+5
34.7%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Shemar Thornton for 5 yds to the NoIll 35Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 3
OWN 35
0
35.0%
Ethan Hampton pass incomplete to Harrison WayleeSimilar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 3
OWN 35
+2
33.2%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Tristen Tewes for 2 yds to the NoIll 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 17FG
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:1375% → 79%
Q4 14:34
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
25.2%
Chase Gillespie run for 6 yds to the NoIll 31Similar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+11
23.9%
AJ Swann pass complete to Jayden McGowan for 11 yds to the NoIll 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
23.6%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Jayden McGowanSimilar
Q4 13:17
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
23.5%
Ray Davis run for no gain to the NoIll 20Similar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 10
OPP 20
-10
24.1%
(12:52) Shotgun Swann,AJ pass incomplete short right to Bresnahan,Ben broken up by Brown,C.J. PENALTY VAN Holding (Uzebu,Junior) 10 yards from NIU20 to NIU30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:38
3RD & 20
OPP 30
+13
24.9%
Ray Davis run for 13 yds to the NoIll 17Similar
Q4 12:21
4TH & 7
OPP 17
+35
21.4%
Joseph Bulovas 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:3321% → 16%
Q4 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
21.0%
Harrison Waylee run for 8 yds to the NoIll 33Similar
Q4 11:32
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+12
22.1%
Kacper Rutkiewicz run for 12 yds to the NoIll 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
22.6%
Harrison Waylee run for no gain to the NoIll 45Similar
Q4 10:33
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
19.0%
Antario Brown run for no gain to the NoIll 45Similar
Q4 9:54
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+3
17.6%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Harrison Waylee for 3 yds to the NoIll 42Similar
Q4 9:23
4TH & 13
OWN 42
0
15.9%
Tom Foley punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1684% → 85%
Q4 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
16.0%
Chase Gillespie run for 2 yds to the Vandy 7Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 8
OWN 7
+5
15.9%
Chase Gillespie run for 5 yds to the Vandy 12Similar
Q4 8:04
3RD & 3
OWN 12
0
15.9%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Will SheppardSimilar
Q4 7:51
4TH & 3
OWN 12
0
15.4%
Matt Hayball punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoIll 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 20INT
9 plays · 39 yds · 3:3016% → 15%
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
16.1%
Ethan Hampton pass incomplete to Shemar ThorntonSimilar
Q4 7:26
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+8
15.7%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Kacper Rutkiewicz for 8 yds to the NoIll 42Similar
Q4 6:44
3RD & 2
OWN 42
-1
15.6%
Ethan Hampton sacked by BJ Diakite for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 41Similar
Q4 6:05
4TH & 3
OWN 41
+5
13.0%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Kacper Rutkiewicz for 5 yds to the NoIll 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
14.4%
Harrison Waylee run for 10 yds to the Vandy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
13.6%
Harrison Waylee run for 2 yds to the Vandy 42Similar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+15
13.5%
(04:38) No Huddle-Shotgun Hampton,Ethan pass incomplete short right to Rutkiewicz,Kacper PENALTY VAN Pass Interference (Russell,Tyson) 15 yards from VAN42 to VAN27, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
16.2%
Ethan Hampton pass incomplete to Billy DozierSimilar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
15.3%
Ethan Hampton pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 21END OF GAME
12 plays · 20 yds · 4:0891% → 96%
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
8.8%
Ray Davis run for 3 yds to the Vandy 43Similar
Q4 4:03
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
8.4%
Ray Davis run for no gain to the Vandy 43Similar
Q4 3:52
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+9
7.9%
Ray Davis run for 9 yds to the NoIll 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
7.2%
Ray Davis run for 2 yds to the NoIll 46Similar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+4
5.2%
Chase Gillespie run for 4 yds to the NoIll 42Similar
Q4 2:02
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+7
4.9%
Chase Gillespie run for 7 yds to the NoIll 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
3.8%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 37Similar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 12
OPP 37
-2
3.7%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 39Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 14
OPP 39
-1
3.8%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:31
AJ Swann pass complete to Will Sheppard for 31 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)
-28.3
TD · Q3 1:07
AJ Swann pass complete to Will Sheppard for 13 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)
-25
TD · Q3 6:44
AJ Swann pass complete to Ray Davis for 21 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)
-12.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com