2022 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2022 · Kroger Field
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Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadYSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUK scoreYSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:43 · Colin Goodfellow punt for 39 yds , Randy Smith returns for 8 yds to the YngSt 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 6:10: Will Levis pass complete to Dane Key for 3 yds for a TD, (Matt Ruffolo KICK) — UK win probability +1.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 3:02: Demeatric Crenshaw pass incomplete — YSU win probability +1.0 pts (now 5%) (top driver: YSU has the ball).
- FUMBLE · Q2 1:54: Will Levis pass complete to Dane Key for 14 yds Dane Key fumbled, recovered by Kent Jordan Dingle for a 1ST down — UK win probability +0.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:20: Will Levis pass complete to Chris Lewis for 2 yds for a TD, (Matt Ruffolo KICK) — UK win probability +2.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:36: Kavosiey Smoke run for 7 yds for a TD, (Matt Ruffolo KICK) — UK win probability +1.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UK made the numbers' call on 6 of 6YSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 12
- Q1 12:23UK 4th & 10 at UK 48, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 95.9% before the snapGo for it95.9%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.9%average punt
- Q1 10:43YSU 4th & 1 at YSU 25, tiedClose callPunted · 4.4% before the snapGo for it4.5%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.4%−0.1average punt
- Q1 7:32UK 4th & 8 at UK 45, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 94.8% before the snapGo for it94.8%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.9%average punt
- Q1 7:24UK 4th & 8 at UK 45, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 94.8% before the snapGo for it94.8%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.8%average punt
- Q1 6:25YSU 4th & 4 at YSU 11, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snapGo for it5.3%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.4%average punt
- Q1 4:49YSU 4th & 6 at YSU 7, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 5.7% before the snapGo for it5.6%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.7%average punt
- Q1 3:07YSU 4th & 6 at YSU 7, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 6.1% before the snapGo for it6.0%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.1%average punt
- Q2 11:10YSU 4th & 7 at YSU 28, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.5% before the snapGo for it6.4%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.5%average punt
- Q2 3:43YSU 4th & 10 at YSU 42, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.5% before the snapGo for it5.3%−0.229% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.6%average punt
- Q2 2:06YSU 4th & 9 at UK 46, down 14Close callPunted · 5.6% before the snapGo for it5.5%32% to convertField goal5.3%−0.223% to makePuntTheir call5.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 1:54YSU 4th & 9 at UK 46, down 14Close callPunted · 5.7% before the snapGo for it5.5%32% to convertField goal5.3%−0.223% to makePuntTheir call5.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 13:53YSU 4th & 10 at UK 33, down 21Close callWent for it · 2.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.2%−0.130% to convertField goal2.2%49% to makePunt2.1%−0.2average punt
- Q3 7:43UK 4th & 17 at UK 31, up 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.6%−0.314% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
- Q3 4:42UK 4th & 17 at UK 31, up 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q3 1:13YSU 4th & 22 at YSU 45, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.28% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 8:51YSU 4th & 12 at YSU 39, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 4:54UK 4th & 5 at YSU 5, up 28Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.133% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%92% to makePunt99.4%−0.4average punt
- Q4 1:08YSU 4th & 11 at UK 39, down 31Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−<0.127% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.136% to makePunt0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UK made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q2 13:34UK Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.5%97% to makeGo for two93.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:10UK Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.8%97% to makeGo for two94.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:20UK Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.1%97% to makeGo for two98.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:36UK Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUKDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 23 yds · 2:3797% → 97%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
97.4%
Will Levis pass complete to Dane Key for 23 yds to the Kent 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 43
+14
97.4%
Will Levis pass complete to Kavosiey Smoke for 14 yds to the YngSt 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 43
-9
97.4%
Will Levis sacked by Dylan Wudke for a loss of 9 yards to the Kent 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:403% → 3%
Q1 12:23
3RD & 8
OWN 18
-5
97.0%
YOUNGSTOWN ST Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Jaleel McLaughlin) to the YngSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 3PUNT9 plays · 13 yds · 3:1997% → 96%
Q1 10:43
2ND & 12
OWN 30
+13
96.8%
Will Levis pass complete to Barion Brown for 13 yds to the Kent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:43
3RD & 4
OWN 49
-4
96.8%
Will Levis sacked by Anthony Johnson for a loss of 4 yards to the Kent 45Similar
Q1 7:32
3RD & 4
OWN 49
-4
96.3%
Will Levis sacked by Anthony Johnson for a loss of 4 yards to the Kent 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:594% → 4%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 5INT4 plays · 12 yds · 1:3696% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 6PUNT7 plays · 4 yds · 1:424% → 5%
UKDrive 7TD9 plays · 35 yds · 4:3396% → 95%
YSUDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 2:245% → 5%
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
95.2%
Demeatric Crenshaw pass complete to Jaleel McLaughlin for a loss of 2 yards to the YngSt 23Similar
Q2 11:10
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+13
95.0%
Paddy Lynch punt for 39 yds , Tayvion Robinson returns for 13 yds to the Kent 41 KENTUCKY Penalty, Offensive Holding (Keidron Smith) to the Kent 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 9TD8 plays · 77 yds · 5:0095% → 96%
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+29
94.8%
Will Levis pass complete to Dane Key for 29 yds to the YngSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-3
95.1%
Will Levis sacked by Alex Howard and Andres Lehrmann for a loss of 3 yards to the Kent 49Similar
Q2 11:10
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+12
95.0%
Will Levis pass complete to Keaton Upshaw for 12 yds to the YngSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 5
OPP 27
0
95.1%
Will Levis pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for no gain to the YngSt 27Similar
Q2 6:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
96.0%
Will Levis pass complete to Dane Key for 3 yds for a TD, (Matt Ruffolo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 10PUNT8 plays · 17 yds · 2:274% → 5%
UKDrive 11FUMBLE2 plays · 32 yds · 0:4196% → 96%
YSUDrive 12PUNT7 plays · 1 yds · 1:085% → 5%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 13TD14 plays · 71 yds · 1:3496% → 98%
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+14
96.2%
Will Levis pass complete to Dane Key for 14 yds Dane Key fumbled, recovered by Kent Jordan Dingle for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
96.4%
Will Levis pass complete to Barion Brown for 13 yds to the YngSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+18
96.2%
Will Levis pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 18 yds to the YngSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
96.1%
LEVIS, Will pass up the middle incomplete intended for KEY, Dane thrown to the YSU0. PENALTY YSU Pass Interference on JAKUBEC, Troy enforced 2 yards to the YSU2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.3%
Will Levis pass complete to Chris Lewis for 2 yds for a TD, (Matt Ruffolo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 15DOWNS5 plays · 42 yds · 1:072% → 2%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+42
98.0%
Demeatric Crenshaw pass complete to Bryce Oliver for 27 yds to the KENTUCKY 48 for a 1ST down KENTUCKY Penalty, Personal Foul (Deone Walker) to the Kent 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 16TD9 plays · 67 yds · 5:1798% → 100%
Q3 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+22
98.3%
Will Levis pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 22 yds to the YngSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:53
1ST & 15
50
+13
98.4%
Will Levis pass complete to Barion Brown for 13 yds to the YngSt 37Similar
Q3 13:53
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+9
98.4%
Will Levis pass complete to Barion Brown for 9 yds to the YngSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:53
2ND & 13
OPP 31
+5
98.4%
Will Levis pass complete to Dekel Crowdus for 5 yds to the YngSt 26Similar
Q3 13:53
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+13
98.4%
Will Levis pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 13 yds to the YngSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 17INT5 plays · 67 yds · 0:440% → 0%
UKDrive 18PUNT7 plays · 11 yds · 3:01100% → 100%
Q3 7:43
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+23
99.7%
Will Levis pass complete to Brenden Bates for 23 yds to the Kent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:43
4TH & 17
OWN 31
+8
99.7%
Colin Goodfellow punt for 39 yds , Randy Smith returns for 8 yds to the YngSt 38Similar
Q3 4:42
4TH & 17
OWN 31
+8
99.7%
Colin Goodfellow punt for 39 yds , Randy Smith returns for 8 yds to the YngSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 19PUNT6 plays · 7 yds · 3:290% → 0%
Q3 4:42
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+19
99.8%
Demeatric Crenshaw pass complete to Latrell Fordham for 19 yds to the Kent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+1
99.8%
Demeatric Crenshaw pass complete to Dra Rushton for 1 yd to the Kent 43Similar
Q3 4:42
3RD & 10
OPP 43
-12
99.8%
Demeatric Crenshaw sacked by Kahlil Saunders and Keaten Wade for a loss of 12 yards to the YngSt 45Similar
Q3 1:13
4TH & 22
OWN 45
-8
99.9%
Paddy Lynch punt for 44 yds , Tayvion Robinson returns for a loss of 8 yards to the Kent 37 KENTUCKY Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct ( Yards) to the Kent 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 20INT14 plays · 53 yds · 5:27100% → 100%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
99.8%
YOUNGSTOWN ST Penalty, fumbled snap, Kneel down by LEVIS, Will at KEN41 Unnecessary Roughness on AUGUSTIN, D'Marco enforced (D'Marco Augustin) to the Kent 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
99.8%
Will Levis pass complete to Barion Brown for 8 yds to the Kent 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+12
99.8%
Will Levis pass complete to Dekel Crowdus for 12 yds to the YngSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+4
99.8%
Will Levis pass complete to Keaton Upshaw for 4 yds to the YngSt 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 35
-10
99.8%
WRIGHT, La'Vell rush to the left for a gain of 11 yards to the YSU24 (HOOKER, Marcus). PENALTY KEN Holding on KEY, Dane enforced 10 yards from the YSU35 to the YSU45 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:46
3RD & 16
OPP 45
-10
99.9%
Will Levis pass intercepted YOUNGSTOWN ST Penalty, Illegal Block (D'Marco Augustin) to the YngSt 20Similar
Q4 10:46
3RD & 16
OPP 45
-15
99.9%
Will Levis pass intercepted for a 1ST down YOUNGSTOWN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (D'Marco Augustin) to the YngSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 21PUNT7 plays · 19 yds · 1:550% → 0%
Q4 10:46
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+15
99.9%
CRENSHAW, Demeatric pass to the left complete for 30 yards to OLIVER, Bryce caught at the KEN44 and advanced to the KEN44, End of Play. PENALTY KEN Pass Interference on SMITH, Keidron enforced 15 yards to the YSU41 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
99.9%
Demeatric Crenshaw pass complete to Jaleel McLaughlin for a loss of 2 yards to the YngSt 39Similar
Q4 8:51
4TH & 12
OWN 39
+8
99.9%
Paddy Lynch punt for 44 yds , Tayvion Robinson returns for 8 yds to the Kent 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 22FG8 plays · 70 yds · 3:57100% → 100%
Q4 8:51
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
99.9%
Will Levis pass complete to Justice Dingle II for 10 yds to the Kent 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:51
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+58
99.9%
Will Levis pass complete to DeMarcus Harris for 58 yds to the YngSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
99.9%
Will Levis pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for a loss of 2 yards to the YngSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 23DOWNS7 plays · 41 yds · 3:460% → 0%
UKDrive 24END OF GAME3 plays · 8 yds · 1:08100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:20
Will Levis pass complete to Chris Lewis for 2 yds for a TD, (Matt Ruffolo KICK)
+2.2
TD · Q3 8:36
Kavosiey Smoke run for 7 yds for a TD, (Matt Ruffolo KICK)
+1.3
TD · Q2 6:10
Will Levis pass complete to Dane Key for 3 yds for a TD, (Matt Ruffolo KICK)
+1