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PSU

Penn State 41 at Auburn 12

AUB
2022 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2022 · Jordan-Hare Stadium
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Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scorePSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:50 · Oscar Chapman punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Parker Washington at the Aub 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 172Home team on offense−56.2Score differential−44.6Garbage-time factor−21.0Pregame prior−0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−10.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:46: Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +10.0 pts (now 73%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:16: Nicholas Singleton run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +9.7 pts (now 83%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:07: Kaytron Allen run for 6 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +4.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:27: Robby Ashford pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for 22 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed) — AUB win probability +8.8 pts (now 10%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:03: Nicholas Singleton run for 54 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +3.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 9 of 11PSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 13:15PSU 4th & 1 at PSU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    54.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:08PSU 4th & 1 at PSU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    54.6%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:20AUB 4th & 14 at PSU 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.4%
    84% to make
    Punt
    45.3%−1.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:30PSU 4th & 18 at PSU 39, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.4%−1.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:13PSU 4th & 18 at PSU 39, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.4%−1.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:59AUB 4th & 5 at PSU 5, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.0%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.0%
    92% to make
    Punt
    38.9%−6.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:51PSU 4th & 9 at AUB 49, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.9%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:42PSU 4th & 9 at AUB 49, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.1%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:50AUB 4th & 19 at AUB 12, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%−3.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:23AUB 4th & 19 at AUB 12, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.8%−3.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:27PSU 4th & 11 at AUB 31, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.6%−1.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.7%
    54% to make
    Punt
    80.2%−1.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:15AUB 4th & 2 at PSU 29, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    14.7%−1.8
    58% to make
    Punt
    8.1%−8.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:18AUB 4th & 4 at AUB 31, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:08AUB 4th & 4 at AUB 31, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:21PSU 4th & 4 at AUB 4, up 26
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.5%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    98.9%−0.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:50AUB 4th & 17 at AUB 6, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:40AUB 4th & 17 at AUB 6, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:10PSU 4th & 6 at AUB 44, up 29
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:02PSU 4th & 6 at AUB 44, up 29
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:00AUB 4th & 1 at PSU 9, down 29
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    89% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:54AUB 4th & 1 at PSU 9, down 29
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    89% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 0 of 1PSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 4:21PSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:46PSU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:16PSU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:07PSU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:27AUB Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    5.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    5.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:03PSU Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1FUMBLE
9 plays · 22 yds · 1:4662% → 61%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
38.5%
Nicholas Singleton run for 5 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q1 14:29
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-5
38.6%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 25Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
38.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 13 yds to the PnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
38.8%
Nicholas Singleton run for 1 yd to the PnSt 39Similar
Q1 13:23
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
39.0%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KeAndre Lambert-SmithSimilar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+8
39.1%
Sean Clifford run for 8 yds to the PnSt 47 Sean Clifford fumbled, forced by Owen Pappoe, recovered by PnStSimilar
Q1 13:15
4TH & 1
OWN 47
0
39.0%
Sean Clifford run for no gain to the PnSt 47Similar
Q1 13:08
4TH & 1
OWN 47
0
39.1%
Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 2FG
10 plays · 33 yds · 4:3540% → 41%
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
39.5%
Tank Bigsby run for 7 yds to the PnSt 40Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+4
39.9%
Tank Bigsby run for 4 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
40.1%
T.J. Finley pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 1 yd to the PnSt 35Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+3
40.5%
T.J. Finley pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for 3 yds to the PnSt 32Similar
Q1 10:05
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+24
40.8%
T.J. Finley pass complete to Shedrick Jackson for 24 yds to the PnSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
41.2%
Tank Bigsby run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 9Similar
Q1 9:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
41.5%
T.J. Finley pass incomplete to Tank BigsbySimilar
Q1 8:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
41.2%
T.J. Finley sacked by Curtis Jacobs for a loss of 5 yards to the PnSt 14Similar
Q1 8:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+31
41.1%
Anders Carlson 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:4958% → 61%
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
41.7%
Keyvone Lee run for 2 yds to the PnSt 27Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-2
41.9%
Sean Clifford run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 25Similar
Q1 7:05
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+14
42.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 14 yds to the PnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
41.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 2 yds to the PnSt 41Similar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+16
41.8%
Kaytron Allen run for 16 yds to the Aub 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
41.7%
Kaytron Allen run for 2 yds to the Aub 41Similar
Q1 5:12
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+34
42.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 34 yds to the Aub 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
41.6%
Kaytron Allen run for no gain to the Aub 7Similar
Q1 4:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
38.6%
Sean Clifford run for 7 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 4INT
14 plays · 47 yds · 4:1640% → 42%
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
40.0%
Bigsby, Tank rush for loss of 3 yards to the AUBURN22, PENALTY PENNST offside 5 yards to the AUBURN30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 5
OWN 30
0
40.8%
T.J. Finley pass incomplete to Dazalin WorshamSimilar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+13
40.3%
T.J. Finley run for 13 yds to the Aub 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-10
41.3%
Bigsby, Tank rush for 12 yards to the PENNST45, PENALTY AUBURN holding 10 yards to the AUBURN33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:14
1ST & 20
OWN 33
0
40.1%
T.J. Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 20
OWN 33
0
40.1%
T.J. Finley run for no gain to the Aub 33Similar
Q1 2:19
3RD & 20
OWN 33
+24
39.5%
T.J. Finley pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 24 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
42.0%
Tank Bigsby run for 9 yds to the PnSt 34Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+2
42.6%
T.J. Finley pass complete to John Samuel Shenker for 2 yds to the PnSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
42.7%
Tank Bigsby run for 2 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q1 0:25
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+2
42.9%
Robby Ashford run for 2 yds to the PnSt 28Similar
Q1 0:25
3RD & 6
OPP 28
0
42.2%
T.J. Finley pass intercepted Zakee Wheatley return for no gain to the PnSt 23Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 28
0
42.3%
Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:3260% → 59%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+24
40.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 24 yds to the PnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
39.2%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Mitchell TinsleySimilar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+1
39.3%
Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd to the PnSt 48Similar
Q2 13:44
3RD & 9
OWN 48
-5
39.9%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 43Similar
Q2 13:10
3RD & 14
OWN 43
-10
40.8%
Clifford, Sean pass complete to Lambert-Smith, KeAndre for 10 yards to the AUBURN47, PENALTY PENNST holding 10 yards to the PENNST33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 24
OWN 33
+6
41.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Devyn Ford for 6 yds to the PnSt 39Similar
Q2 12:30
4TH & 18
OWN 39
+14
41.4%
Barney Amor punt for 47 yds , Keionte Scott returns for 14 yds to the Aub 28Similar
Q2 12:13
4TH & 18
OWN 39
+14
41.4%
Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 6FG
13 plays · 67 yds · 4:5641% → 45%
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
41.1%
Jarquez Hunter run for 2 yds to the Aub 30Similar
Q2 11:28
2ND & 8
OWN 30
0
41.1%
T.J. Finley pass incomplete to Malcolm Johnson Jr.Similar
Q2 11:22
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+24
40.1%
T.J. Finley pass complete to Landen King for 24 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
43.7%
Jarquez Hunter run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 47Similar
Q2 10:16
2ND & 11
OPP 47
0
43.3%
Robby Ashford pass incomplete to Tank BigsbySimilar
Q2 10:16
3RD & 11
OPP 47
-5
41.7%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Aub 48Similar
Q2 9:55
3RD & 16
OWN 48
+18
40.4%
T.J. Finley run for 18 yds to the PnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+12
44.4%
Shedrick Jackson run for 12 yds to the PnSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+12
44.5%
Jarquez Hunter run for 12 yds to the PnSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
44.6%
Jarquez Hunter run for 3 yds to the PnSt 7Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
43.9%
Jarquez Hunter run for no gain to the PnSt 7Similar
Q2 7:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
42.8%
T.J. Finley pass complete to Shedrick Jackson for 2 yds to the PnSt 5Similar
Q2 6:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
44.6%
Anders Carlson 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7TD
14 plays · 68 yds · 5:0659% → 73%
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
40.7%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 27Similar
Q2 6:42
1ST & 15
OWN 27
0
41.6%
Nicholas Singleton run for no gain to the PnSt 27Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 15
OWN 27
+9
42.2%
Keyvone Lee run for 9 yds to the PnSt 36Similar
Q2 5:25
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+14
41.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
50
+1
39.2%
Sean Clifford run for 1 yd to the Aub 49Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+7
39.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 7 yds to the Aub 42Similar
Q2 3:56
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+2
39.2%
Keyvone Lee run for 2 yds to the Aub 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
39.3%
Keyvone Lee run for 5 yds to the Aub 35 Keyvone Lee fumbled, recovered by PnSt Keyvone LeeSimilar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+25
38.1%
KeAndre Lambert-Smith pass complete to Sean Clifford for 25 yds to the Aub 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
37.8%
Nicholas Singleton run for 4 yds to the Aub 6Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
37.1%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 3 yds to the Aub 3Similar
Q2 1:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
27.2%
Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 8FUMBLE
5 plays · 35 yds · 0:3330% → 32%
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+13
30.0%
T.J. Finley pass complete to Malcolm Johnson Jr. for 13 yds to the Aub 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
30.6%
T.J. Finley pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 15 yds to the Aub 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
32.1%
T.J. Finley pass complete to Shedrick Jackson for 7 yds Shedrick Jackson fumbled, forced by Abdul Carter, recovered by PnSt Jonathan Sutherland , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
32.0%
T.J. Finley pass complete to Shedrick Jackson for 7 yds Shedrick Jackson fumbled, forced by Abdul Carter, recovered by PnSt Jonathan Sutherland , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 0:1973% → 70%
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
50
+1
27.4%
Sean Clifford run for 1 yd to the Aub 49Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 9
OPP 49
0
27.4%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Brenton StrangeSimilar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 9
OPP 49
0
28.2%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Parker WashingtonSimilar
Q2 0:51
4TH & 9
OPP 49
+6
29.7%
Barney Amor punt for 46 yds , Keionte Scott returns for 6 yds to the Aub 9Similar
Q2 0:42
4TH & 9
OPP 49
+6
29.7%
Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 10END OF HALF
5 plays · 30 yds · 0:3629% → 32%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
29.0%
T.J. Finley pass incomplete to John Samuel ShenkerSimilar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+13
28.8%
T.J. Finley run for 13 yds to the Aub 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-11
29.6%
AUBURN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Brandon Council) to the Aub 11Similar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+37
29.3%
T.J. Finley pass complete to Tank Bigsby for 37 yds to the Aub 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-9
31.6%
T.J. Finley sacked by Demeioun Robinson for a loss of 9 yards to the Aub 39 T.J. Finley fumbled, forced by Demeioun Robinson, recovered by Aub T.J. Finley , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 1:2231% → 29%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
31.3%
Tank Bigsby run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 19Similar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 12
OWN 19
0
30.9%
T.J. Finley pass incomplete to Tank BigsbySimilar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 12
OWN 19
-7
29.9%
T.J. Finley sacked by Adisa Isaac for a loss of 7 yards to the Aub 12Similar
Q3 13:50
4TH & 19
OWN 12
0
29.4%
Oscar Chapman punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Parker Washington at the PnSt 42Similar
Q3 13:23
4TH & 19
OWN 12
0
29.1%
Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 12TD
3 plays · 58 yds · 0:5973% → 83%
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+53
27.4%
Nicholas Singleton run for 53 yds to the Aub 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
26.6%
Nicholas Singleton run for 4 yds to the Aub 1Similar
Q3 12:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
16.9%
Nicholas Singleton run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 13FUMBLE
7 plays · 5 yds · 1:2921% → 20%
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
21.4%
Damari Alston run for 2 yds to the Aub 27Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
20.3%
Finley, T.J. pass incomplete to Jackson, Shedrick, PENALTY PENNST holding 10 yards to the AUBURN37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN AUBURN.Similar
Q3 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
21.0%
T.J. Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:29
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-5
20.6%
AUBURN Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Aub 32Similar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 15
OWN 32
+3
19.8%
T.J. Finley run for 3 yds to the Aub 35Similar
Q3 10:36
3RD & 12
OWN 35
-5
19.5%
T.J. Finley sacked by Ji'Ayir Brown for a loss of 5 yards to the Aub 30 T.J. Finley fumbled, forced by Ji'Ayir Brown, recovered by PnSt Demeioun Robinson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 14FG
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:4885% → 87%
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
15.4%
Nicholas Singleton run for no gain to the Aub 30Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-1
15.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 31Similar
Q3 9:32
3RD & 11
OPP 31
0
15.1%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KeAndre Lambert-SmithSimilar
Q3 9:27
4TH & 11
OPP 31
+48
13.2%
Jake Pinegar 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q3 9:27
4TH & 11
OWN 35
-15
13.3%
PENN ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Sal Wormley) to the PnSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 15INT
14 plays · 39 yds · 5:0716% → 14%
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
15.7%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
50
+1
15.9%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Tank Bigsby for 1 yd to the PnSt 49Similar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+12
15.7%
Tank Bigsby run for 12 yds to the PnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
15.7%
Tank Bigsby run for 3 yds to the PnSt 34Similar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 7
OPP 34
0
16.0%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+5
15.2%
Tank Bigsby run for 5 yds to the PnSt 29Similar
Q3 6:15
4TH & 2
OPP 29
+6
15.1%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 6 yds to the PnSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+15
15.6%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Malcolm Johnson Jr. for 15 yds to the PnSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-4
15.3%
Robby Ashford run for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 12Similar
Q3 4:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
-11
14.5%
Robby Ashford sacked by Abdul Carter for a loss of 11 yards to the PnSt 23Similar
Q3 4:35
3RD & 0
OPP 23
-12
13.8%
Robby Ashford pass intercepted Ji'Ayir Brown return for 27 yds to the Aub 0 AUBURN Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the Aub 48Similar
Q3 4:14
3RD & 0
OPP 23
-12
13.5%
Robby Ashford pass intercepted Ji'Ayir Brown return for 27 yds to the Aub 0 AUBURN Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the Aub 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 16TD
8 plays · 48 yds · 2:5892% → 99%
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
7.8%
Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd to the Aub 47Similar
Q3 3:29
2ND & 9
OPP 47
-15
6.5%
Clifford, Sean pass incomplete to Singleton, Nicholas, PENALTY PENNST pass interference 15 yards to the PENNST38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 24
OWN 38
+26
6.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 26 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
6.1%
Kaytron Allen run for 5 yds to the Aub 31Similar
Q3 2:05
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+18
5.6%
Kaytron Allen run for 18 yds to the Aub 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-10
5.5%
Allen, Kaytron rush for 4 yards to the AUBURN9, PENALTY PENNST holding 10 yards to the AUBURN23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:28
1ST & 20
OPP 23
+17
5.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 17 yds to the Aub 6Similar
Q3 1:07
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+6
1.0%
Kaytron Allen run for 6 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 1:281% → 10%
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+28
1.0%
Robby Ashford run for 28 yds to the PnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
0.9%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 5 yds to the PnSt 32Similar
Q3 0:07
2ND & 5
OPP 32
0
0.9%
Robby Ashford pass incomplete to Jarquez HunterSimilar
Q3 0:07
3RD & 5
OPP 32
-5
0.9%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 37Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+13
0.8%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Koy Moore for 13 yds to the PnSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
0.9%
Robby Ashford run for 2 yds to the PnSt 22Similar
Q4 14:27
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+22
9.6%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for 22 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 18TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:1296% → 99%
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
4.0%
Nicholas Singleton run for 2 yds to the PnSt 27Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
3.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 6 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+13
3.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 13 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+54
0.7%
Nicholas Singleton run for 54 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:501% → 0%
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.5%
Robby Ashford pass incomplete to Tank BigsbySimilar
Q4 11:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
0.5%
Robby Ashford run for 6 yds to the Aub 31Similar
Q4 11:18
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
0.4%
Robby Ashford pass incomplete to Ja'Varrius JohnsonSimilar
Q4 11:18
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
0.4%
Oscar Chapman punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 31Similar
Q4 11:08
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
0.4%
Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 20FG
10 plays · 65 yds · 5:2499% → 100%
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
0.7%
Devyn Ford run for 1 yd to the PnSt 32Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+16
0.6%
Drew Allar pass complete to Brenton Strange for 16 yds to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
0.5%
Devyn Ford run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 8
50
+13
0.4%
Drew Allar pass complete to Parker Washington for 13 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+30
0.4%
Devyn Ford run for 30 yds to the Aub 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
0.4%
Devyn Ford run for 2 yds to the Aub 5Similar
Q4 6:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
0.3%
Devyn Ford run for 4 yds to the Aub 1Similar
Q4 6:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
0.3%
Devyn Ford run for a loss of 3 yards to the Aub 4Similar
Q4 5:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
0.2%
Jake Pinegar 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 1:250% → 0%
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-3
0.1%
Robby Ashford run for a loss of 3 yards to the Aub 10Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 13
OWN 10
-4
0.1%
Robby Ashford sacked by Dani Dennis-Sutton for a loss of 4 yards to the Aub 6Similar
Q4 3:50
3RD & 17
OWN 6
0
0.1%
Robby Ashford pass incomplete to Shedrick JacksonSimilar
Q4 3:50
4TH & 17
OWN 6
0
0.1%
Oscar Chapman punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Parker Washington at the Aub 48Similar
Q4 3:40
4TH & 17
OWN 6
0
0.1%
Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:18100% → 100%
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
0.1%
Devyn Ford run for 1 yd to the Aub 47Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+3
0.1%
Christian Veilleux run for 3 yds to the Aub 44Similar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 6
OPP 44
0
0.1%
Christian Veilleux pass incomplete to Malick MeigaSimilar
Q4 2:10
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
0.1%
Barney Amor punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Keionte Scott at the Aub 8Similar
Q4 2:02
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
0.1%
Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 23DOWNS
9 plays · 83 yds · 1:010% → 0%
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
0.1%
Robby Ashford pass incomplete to Shedrick JacksonSimilar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+22
0.1%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 22 yds to the Aub 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
0.1%
Robby Ashford run for 9 yds to the Aub 39Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+43
0.1%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Shedrick Jackson for 43 yds to the PnSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
0.1%
Robby Ashford run for 4 yds to the PnSt 14Similar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+5
0.1%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Tyler Fromm for 5 yds to the PnSt 9Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 1
OPP 9
0
0.1%
Robby Ashford pass incomplete to Tyler FrommSimilar
Q4 1:00
4TH & 1
OPP 9
0
0.1%
Robby Ashford run for no gain to the PnSt 9Similar
Q4 0:54
4TH & 1
OPP 9
0
0.1%
Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:10100% → 100%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 7Similar
Q4 0:20
2ND & 12
OWN 7
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:46
Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)
-10
TD · Q3 12:16
Nicholas Singleton run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)
-9.7
TD · Q4 14:27
Robby Ashford pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for 22 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+8.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com