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MOST

Missouri State 27 at Arkansas 38

ARK
2022 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2022 · Razorback Stadium
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Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadMOST aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreMOST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:34 · Grant Burkett punt for 64 yds, downed at the Ark 22
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 190Pregame prior+0.7Home team on offense+23.6Score differential+9.6Garbage-time factor+5.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.9Time remaining+1.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:36: Jason Shelley run for 24 yds for a TD, (Jose Pizano KICK) — MOST win probability +9.7 pts (now 21%) (top driver: MOST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:28: J. Shelley pass,to T. Scott for 47 yds for a TD, (J. Pizano KICK) — MOST win probability +21.1 pts (now 49%) (top driver: MOST has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 12:04: Jose Pizano 31 Yd Field Goal — MOST win probability +10.3 pts (now 70%) (top driver: MOST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:38: K. Jefferson pass,to R. Sanders for 73 yds for a TD, (C. Little KICK) — ARK win probability +27.0 pts (now 52%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:39: KJ Jefferson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) — ARK win probability +12.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 7 of 8MOST made the numbers' call on 12 of 13
  1. Q1 10:34MOST 4th & 15 at MOST 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.4%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:34ARK 4th & 4 at ARK 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.5%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:43ARK 4th & 4 at ARK 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.3%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:59MOST 4th & 13 at MOST 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:47ARK 4th & 1 at ARK 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    89.5%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:29MOST 4th & 4 at ARK 11, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.5%−0.1
    87% to make
    Punt
    11.8%−1.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:08ARK 4th & 10 at ARK 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.4%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:25MOST 4th & 5 at MOST 43, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:47MOST 4th & 5 at MOST 43, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:47ARK 4th & 9 at MOST 39, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.9%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    75.6%−0.2
    36% to make
    Punt
    75.6%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:27ARK 4th & 9 at MOST 39, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.7%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    72.5%−0.2
    36% to make
    Punt
    72.2%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:20MOST 4th & 9 at MOST 35, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%−0.7
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:44MOST 4th & 20 at ARK 43, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.7%−1.9
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    22.8%−0.9
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:04MOST 4th & 20 at ARK 43, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%−2.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    24.7%−1.0
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    25.7%
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:36ARK 4th & 8 at MOST 9, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%−1.2
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.3%
    89% to make
    Punt
    61.3%−10.0
    average punt
  16. Q3 3:28MOST 4th & 1 at ARK 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    26.3%−3.6
    average punt
  17. Q3 2:02ARK 4th & 4 at MOST 43, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsPunted · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    53.3%−4.0
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    55.0%−2.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 12:04MOST 4th & 5 at ARK 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.5%−0.6
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.0%
    84% to make
    Punt
    51.0%−11.0
    average punt
  19. Q4 9:16MOST 4th & 10 at MOST 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%−5.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.4%
    average punt
  20. Q4 6:50MOST 4th & 21 at ARK 48, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%−3.0
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.0%
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:34MOST 4th & 21 at MOST 14, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−<0.1
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 3 of 4MOST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 2:47MOST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:36MOST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:25ARK Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:04ARK Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:28MOST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:38ARK Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.8%−0.6
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:39ARK Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.6%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MOSTDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 4:264% → 5%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
96.2%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Kevon Latulas for 5 yds to the MoSt 18Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+5
96.2%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Jacardia Wright for 5 yds to the MoSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
96.2%
Jacardia Wright run for no gain to the MoSt 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
96.2%
Jason Shelley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+11
96.2%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Jahod Booker for 11 yds to the MoSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+13
96.2%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Tyrone Scott for 13 yds to the MoSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
96.2%
Jacardia Wright run for 1 yd to the MoSt 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 48
-6
96.2%
Jason Shelley sacked by Zach Williams for a loss of 6 yards to the MoSt 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 42
0
96.2%
Jason Shelley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:34
4TH & 15
OWN 42
0
95.4%
Grant Burkett punt for 36 yds , Bryce Stephens returns for no gain to the Ark 42 ARKANSAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Ark 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:5195% → 95%
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
95.4%
Raheim Sanders run for 4 yds to the Ark 31Similar
Q1 10:34
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+2
95.4%
Raheim Sanders run for 2 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q1 10:34
3RD & 4
OWN 33
0
95.4%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:34
4TH & 4
OWN 33
0
95.3%
Max Fletcher punt for 47 ydsSimilar
Q1 9:43
4TH & 4
OWN 33
0
95.2%
Max Fletcher punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:445% → 5%
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
95.2%
Jason Shelley sacked by Jordan Domineck for a loss of 5 yards to the MoSt 15Similar
Q1 9:43
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+2
95.2%
Jacardia Wright run for 2 yds to the MoSt 17Similar
Q1 9:43
3RD & 13
OWN 17
0
95.2%
Jason Shelley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:59
4TH & 13
OWN 17
0
94.9%
Grant Burkett punt for 51 yds , Bryce Stephens returns for no gain to the Ark 17 ARKANSAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Ark 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 4FUMBLE
3 plays · 34 yds · 0:4295% → 95%
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+26
94.9%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Matt Landers for 26 yds to the MoSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
95.0%
KJ Jefferson run for 8 yds to the MoSt 36 KJ Jefferson fumbled, recovered by MoSt Von YoungSimilar
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
94.8%
KJ Jefferson run for 8 yds to the MoSt 36 KJ Jefferson fumbled, recovered by MoSt Von YoungSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 5TD
12 plays · 64 yds · 4:305% → 9%
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
94.6%
Jason Shelley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:17
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
94.6%
Jason Shelley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:17
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+18
94.7%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Naveon Mitchell for 18 yds to the Ark 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
94.5%
Jason Shelley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:17
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+17
94.5%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Kevon Latulas for 17 yds to the Ark 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
94.4%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Kevon Latulas for a loss of 5 yards to the Ark 34Similar
Q1 7:17
2ND & 15
OPP 34
+19
94.5%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Jordan Jones for 19 yds to the Ark 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
94.4%
Jason Shelley run for 9 yds to the Ark 6Similar
Q1 7:17
2ND & 1
OPP 6
+1
94.4%
Jason Shelley run for 1 yd to the Ark 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
94.4%
Jason Shelley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
94.4%
Jason Shelley run for 4 yds to the Ark 1Similar
Q1 2:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.4%
Jacardia Wright run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jose Pizano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 6FUMBLE
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0792% → 91%
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
91.6%
Raheim Sanders run for 2 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q1 2:47
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
91.6%
Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q1 2:47
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
91.5%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Matt Landers for 4 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q1 2:47
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+1
91.5%
KJ Jefferson run for 1 yd to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+64
91.6%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 64 yds to the MoSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.2%
Raheim Sanders run for 1 yd Raheim Sanders fumbled, recovered by MoSt Ikenna AhumibeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 7FG
9 plays · 69 yds · 2:119% → 11%
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
90.7%
Jason Shelley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:40
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
90.7%
Jason Shelley run for 5 yds to the MoSt 25Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
90.4%
Jason Shelley run for 5 yds to the MoSt 25Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+45
90.3%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Naveon Mitchell for 45 yds to the Ark 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+13
89.6%
SHELLEY, Jason pass up the middle incomplete intended for SCOTT, Ty thrown to the ARK17. PENALTY ARK Pass Interference on MCGLOTHERN, Dwight enforced at the spot of the foul for 13 yards to the ARK17 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
89.6%
Jason Shelley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
89.6%
Jason Shelley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+6
89.8%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Jahod Booker for 6 yds to the Ark 11Similar
Q2 13:29
4TH & 4
OPP 11
+28
88.7%
Jose Pizano 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:2188% → 86%
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
87.8%
Rashod Dubinion run for 1 yd to the Ark 26Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-1
87.7%
KJ Jefferson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 25Similar
Q2 13:29
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
87.6%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Matt Landers) declinedSimilar
Q2 12:08
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+18
86.2%
Max Fletcher punt for 38 yds , Naveon Mitchell returns for 18 yds to the Ark 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 9TD
4 plays · 45 yds · 1:3211% → 21%
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+20
89.4%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Lance Mason for 20 yds to the Ark 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
89.2%
Jacardia Wright run for 1 yd to the Ark 24Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 9
OPP 24
0
89.2%
Jason Shelley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:36
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+24
79.5%
Jason Shelley run for 24 yds for a TD, (Jose Pizano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 10TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:1188% → 87%
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
87.5%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Matt Landers for 20 yds to the Ark 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+27
88.1%
Raheim Sanders run for 27 yds to the MoSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+15
88.9%
Raheim Sanders run for 15 yds to the MoSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
89.4%
Raheim Sanders run for 8 yds to the MoSt 5Similar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 2
OPP 5
0
89.8%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trey Knox for no gain to the MoSt 5Similar
Q2 10:36
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+2
89.4%
Raheim Sanders run for 2 yds to the MoSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
90.0%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
86.5%
Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 3:3813% → 17%
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
87.0%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Jacardia Wright for 7 yds to the MoSt 32Similar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
86.8%
Jason Shelley run for 2 yds to the MoSt 34Similar
Q2 8:25
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
87.2%
Jacardia Wright run for 4 yds to the MoSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
86.5%
Jacardia Wright run for 4 yds to the MoSt 42Similar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+1
86.5%
Jacardia Wright run for 1 yd to the MoSt 43Similar
Q2 8:25
3RD & 5
OWN 43
0
86.6%
Jason Shelley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:25
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
87.0%
Grant Burkett punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Bryce Stephens at the Ark 19Similar
Q2 4:47
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
83.3%
Grant Burkett punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Bryce Stephens at the Ark 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12DOWNS
10 plays · 47 yds · 2:2082% → 81%
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+30
81.7%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 30 yds to the Ark 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
82.9%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:47
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+8
82.6%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 8 yds to the MoSt 43Similar
Q2 4:47
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+3
83.0%
Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds to the MoSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
83.2%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:47
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
83.0%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:47
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+1
82.7%
KJ Jefferson run for 1 yd to the MoSt 39Similar
Q2 4:47
4TH & 9
OPP 39
+5
82.1%
Rashod Dubinion run for 5 yds to the MoSt 34Similar
Q2 2:27
4TH & 9
OPP 39
+5
79.4%
Rashod Dubinion run for 5 yds to the MoSt 34Similar
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
80.6%
MISSOURI ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MoSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 1:0719% → 15%
Q2 2:27
1ST & 15
OWN 29
-4
81.1%
Jason Shelley sacked by Jayden Johnson and Landon Jackson for a loss of 4 yards to the MoSt 25Similar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 19
OWN 25
+9
81.4%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Jahod Booker for 9 yds to the MoSt 34Similar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 19
OWN 25
+9
84.4%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Jahod Booker for 9 yds to the MoSt 34Similar
Q2 1:37
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+6
84.6%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Jacardia Wright for 6 yds to the MoSt 40Similar
Q2 1:37
4TH & 4
OWN 40
-5
83.9%
MISSOURI ST Penalty, False Start (Tahj Chambers) to the MoSt 35Similar
Q2 1:20
4TH & 9
OWN 35
0
84.6%
Grant Burkett punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Bryce Stephens at the Ark 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 14TD
2 plays · 85 yds · 0:1677% → 84%
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+47
77.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Matt Landers for 47 yds to the MoSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
84.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 38 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 15END OF HALF
7 plays · 6 yds · 1:0417% → 18%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
82.8%
Jacardia Wright run for 3 yds to the MoSt 28Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
82.7%
Jason Shelley run for 9 yds to the MoSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
83.1%
Jason Shelley run for 9 yds to the MoSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
82.8%
Jason Shelley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-6
83.0%
Jason Shelley sacked by Jordan Domineck and Drew Sanders for a loss of 6 yards to the MoSt 31Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-6
82.4%
Jason Shelley sacked by Jordan Domineck and Drew Sanders for a loss of 6 yards to the MoSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 16INT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:1682% → 81%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
82.4%
Raheim Sanders run for 5 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-5
82.8%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (Dalton Wagner) to the Ark 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
82.3%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Matt Landers for 6 yds to the Ark 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+7
82.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Warren Thompson for 7 yds to the Ark 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
83.2%
Raheim Sanders run for 5 yds to the Ark 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+2
84.1%
Raheim Sanders run for 2 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q3 12:44
3RD & 3
OWN 45
0
81.3%
KJ Jefferson pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 6 yds · 2:4023% → 22%
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+16
77.4%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Kevon Latulas for 16 yds to the Ark 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
76.7%
Celdon Manning run for 1 yd to the Ark 32Similar
Q3 12:44
2ND & 9
OPP 32
0
76.8%
Jason Shelley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:44
3RD & 9
OPP 32
-15
77.8%
SHELLEY, Jason pass to the left complete for 4 yards to SCOTT, Ty caught at the ARK28 and advanced to the ARK28 (CLARK, Hudson). PENALTY MOS Pass Interference on SCOTT, Ty enforced 15 yards to the ARK47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:44
3RD & 24
OPP 47
-5
79.1%
MISSOURI ST Penalty, False Start (Landon Bebee) to the MoSt 48Similar
Q3 12:44
3RD & 29
OWN 48
+9
79.4%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Celdon Manning for 9 yds to the Ark 43Similar
Q3 12:44
4TH & 20
OPP 43
0
80.2%
Grant Burkett punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Bryce Stephens at the Ark 7Similar
Q3 10:04
4TH & 20
OPP 43
0
78.0%
Grant Burkett punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Bryce Stephens at the Ark 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18FG
19 plays · 84 yds · 4:2875% → 78%
Q3 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+17
75.3%
Raheim Sanders run for 17 yds to the Ark 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
76.2%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 9 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q3 10:04
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+7
78.1%
Raheim Sanders run for 7 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+18
78.6%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Matt Landers for 18 yds to the MoSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+18
77.5%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Matt Landers for 18 yds to the MoSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
78.4%
Raheim Sanders run for 5 yds to the MoSt 37Similar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+1
78.4%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 1 yd to the MoSt 36Similar
Q3 8:53
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+9
77.9%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trey Knox for 9 yds to the MoSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
79.3%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-5
79.2%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MoSt 32Similar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 15
OPP 32
0
77.5%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:53
3RD & 15
OPP 32
+10
76.0%
MISSOURI ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Devin Goree) to the MoSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
79.3%
AJ Green run for 1 yd to the MoSt 10Similar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+1
79.3%
AJ Green run for 1 yd to the MoSt 9Similar
Q3 6:07
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+1
73.5%
AJ Green run for 1 yd to the MoSt 9Similar
Q3 6:07
3RD & 8
OPP 9
0
72.0%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:36
4TH & 8
OPP 9
+27
78.3%
Cam Little 27 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 19TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:0824% → 49%
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
75.8%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Jacardia Wright for 19 yds to the MoSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
73.2%
Jason Shelley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:36
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+9
74.0%
Jacardia Wright run for 9 yds to the Ark 47Similar
Q3 5:36
3RD & 1
OPP 47
0
72.3%
Jacardia Wright run for no gain to the Ark 47Similar
Q3 3:28
4TH & 1
OPP 47
+47
51.1%
J. Shelley pass,to T. Scott for 47 yds for a TD, (J. Pizano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:1653% → 51%
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
53.4%
KJ Jefferson run for 14 yds to the MoSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
56.8%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Raheim Sanders for 2 yds to the MoSt 47Similar
Q3 3:18
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+4
56.8%
Raheim Sanders run for 4 yds to the MoSt 43Similar
Q3 3:18
3RD & 4
OPP 43
0
56.6%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:02
4TH & 4
OPP 43
0
52.4%
Max Fletcher punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Naveon Mitchell at the MoSt 15Similar
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+15
50.9%
SHELLEY, Jason pass up the middle incomplete intended for MASON, Lance thrown to the MOS40. PENALTY ARK Pass Interference on BRINI, Latavious enforced 15 yards to the MOS30 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 21FG
11 plays · 71 yds · 4:5851% → 70%
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
49.0%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Lance Mason for 13 yds to the MoSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
46.9%
Jacardia Wright run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:02
2ND & 3
50
+19
45.8%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Jahod Booker for 19 yds to the Ark 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
45.1%
Jacardia Wright run for 1 yd to the Ark 30Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
40.2%
Jacardia Wright run for 1 yd to the Ark 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+8
40.4%
Jason Shelley run for 8 yds to the Ark 22Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+3
40.6%
Jacardia Wright run for 3 yds to the Ark 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
39.8%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Tyrone Scott for 5 yds to the Ark 14Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 14
0
39.8%
Jason Shelley run for no gain to the Ark 14Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 14
0
40.7%
Jason Shelley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:04
4TH & 5
OPP 14
+31
30.4%
Jose Pizano 31 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 22TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:2625% → 52%
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
25.1%
KJ Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q4 11:38
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+73
52.0%
K. Jefferson pass,to R. Sanders for 73 yds for a TD, (C. Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 23PUNT TD
5 plays · 0 yds · 2:2231% → 22%
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
69.3%
Jason Shelley sacked by Jordan Domineck and Landon Jackson for a loss of 8 yards to the MoSt 17Similar
Q4 11:38
2ND & 18
OWN 17
-4
70.2%
Jason Shelley sacked by Drew Sanders for a loss of 4 yards to the MoSt 13Similar
Q4 11:38
3RD & 22
OWN 13
+12
71.4%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Jahod Booker for 12 yds to the MoSt 25Similar
Q4 9:16
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+82
78.0%
G. Burkett punt for 57 yds,B. Stephens returns for 82 yds for a TD, (C. Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:2625% → 27%
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+38
75.2%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Kevon Latulas for 38 yds to the Ark 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
70.3%
MISSOURI ST Penalty, False Start (Landon Bebee) to the Ark 42Similar
Q4 9:16
1ST & 15
OPP 42
0
72.5%
Jason Shelley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 15
OPP 42
+3
73.0%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Naveon Mitchell for 3 yds to the Ark 39Similar
Q4 9:16
3RD & 12
OPP 39
-9
73.4%
Jason Shelley sacked by Zach Williams for a loss of 9 yards to the Ark 48Similar
Q4 6:50
4TH & 21
OPP 48
0
73.2%
Grant Burkett punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 25TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 5:1182% → 98%
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
82.2%
Raheim Sanders run for 6 yds to the Ark 26Similar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+7
82.4%
Raheim Sanders run for 7 yds to the Ark 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
82.6%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Matt Landers for 2 yds to the Ark 35Similar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 8
OWN 35
-4
82.4%
Raheim Sanders run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 31Similar
Q4 6:50
3RD & 12
OWN 31
+21
81.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trey Knox for 21 yds to the MoSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
85.2%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+43
84.8%
Raheim Sanders run for 43 yds to the MoSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
85.5%
KJ Jefferson run for 4 yds to the MoSt 1Similar
Q4 1:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.3%
KJ Jefferson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 1:054% → 3%
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.5%
Jason Shelley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
96.5%
MISSOURI ST Penalty, False Start (Sean Fitzgerald) to the MoSt 20Similar
Q4 1:39
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
96.6%
Jason Shelley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:39
3RD & 15
OWN 20
-6
96.8%
Jason Shelley sacked by Drew Sanders for a loss of 6 yards to the MoSt 14Similar
Q4 0:34
4TH & 21
OWN 14
0
96.7%
Grant Burkett punt for 64 yds, downed at the Ark 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:38
K. Jefferson pass,to R. Sanders for 73 yds for a TD, (C. Little KICK)
+27
TD · Q3 3:28
J. Shelley pass,to T. Scott for 47 yds for a TD, (J. Pizano KICK)
-21.1
TD · Q4 1:39
KJ Jefferson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)
+12.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com