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Win probability · TA&M
modelTA&M aheadAPP aheadconfidence bandkey playTA&M scoreAPP score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:54 · Clayton Howell punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Ainias Smith at the TexAM 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 2:34: Chase Brice pass complete to Henry Pearson for 9 yds for a TD, (Michael Hughes KICK) — APP win probability +19.9 pts (now 57%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:20: Michael Hughes kickoff for 60 yds , Devon Achane return for 95 yds for a TD, (Caden Davis KICK) — TA&M win probability +25.0 pts (now 68%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
- FG · Q4 8:05: Michael Hughes 29 yd FG GOOD — APP win probability +13.8 pts (now 58%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 3:35: Camerun Peoples run for 4 yds to the AppSt 34 — APP win probability +13.5 pts (now 72%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 1:36: Camerun Peoples run for 48 yds to the TexAM 12 for a 1ST down — APP win probability +7.0 pts (now 88%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TA&M made the numbers' call on 4 of 5APP made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
- Q1 13:04APP 4th & 8 at TA&M 45, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 12.6% before the snapGo for it12.6%−<0.134% to convertField goal12.5%−0.125% to makePuntTheir call12.6%average punt
- Q1 10:55TA&M 4th & 4 at TA&M 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 86.7% before the snapGo for it86.7%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.8%average punt
- Q1 3:42APP 4th & 1 at TA&M 27, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call16.1%71% to convertField goal15.8%−0.362% to makePunt15.0%−1.1average punt
- Q1 2:46APP 4th & 10 at TA&M 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.2% before the snapGo for it16.1%−0.128% to convertField goalTheir call16.2%66% to makePunt15.2%−1.0average punt
- Q2 7:35APP 4th & 1 at TA&M 45, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call22.4%70% to convertField goal20.4%−2.025% to makePunt21.1%−1.3average punt
- Q2 5:34APP 4th & 6 at TA&M 39, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call23.5%40% to convertField goal22.8%−0.636% to makePunt22.8%−0.7average punt
- Q2 3:25TA&M 4th & 6 at TA&M 43, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 77.9% before the snapGo for it77.8%−0.340% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call78.1%average punt
- Q2 1:54APP 4th & 1 at APP 21, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 23.7% before the snapGo for it24.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.1%−1.0average punt
- Q2 1:27TA&M 4th & 12 at TA&M 27, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 75.4% before the snapGo for it74.0%−1.322% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call75.3%average punt
- Q3 12:10TA&M 4th & 3 at TA&M 43, tiedClose callPunted · 75.0% before the snapGo for it75.8%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call75.4%−0.4average punt
- Q3 10:35APP 4th & 11 at APP 18, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 26.2% before the snapGo for it25.2%−1.825% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.0%average punt
- Q3 4:42APP 4th & 1 at TA&M 19, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call35.1%71% to convertField goal31.6%−3.477% to makePunt21.3%−13.8average punt
- Q4 8:05APP 4th & 7 at TA&M 12, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.8% before the snapGo for it39.8%−1.533% to convertField goalTheir call41.3%86% to makePunt19.7%−21.6average punt
- Q4 3:43TA&M 4th & 6 at APP 30, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.4% before the snapGo for it37.8%−4.240% to convertField goalTheir call42.0%56% to makePunt30.6%−11.4average punt
- Q4 0:00APP 4th & 27 at TA&M 29, up 3Numbers favored field goal by 12.1 ptsWent for it · 84.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call77.1%−12.17% to convertField goal89.2%58% to makePunt72.5%−16.6average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TA&M made the numbers' call on 2 of 2APP made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q2 14:56APP Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call20.3%97% to makeGo for two20.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:37TA&M Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call80.6%97% to makeGo for two80.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:34APP Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call50.7%97% to makeGo for two50.5%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 2:20TA&M Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call65.8%97% to makeGo for two65.5%−0.345% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartAPPDrive 1PUNT8 plays · 30 yds · 1:499% → 9%
TA&MDrive 2PUNT7 plays · 18 yds · 2:0091% → 90%
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+12
90.8%
Haynes King pass complete to Donovan Green for 12 yds to the TexAM 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 15
OWN 21
+4
90.6%
Haynes King pass complete to Evan Stewart for 4 yds to the TexAM 25Similar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 11
OWN 25
+7
90.4%
Haynes King pass complete to Evan Stewart for 7 yds to the TexAM 32Similar
Q1 10:55
4TH & 4
OWN 32
0
90.2%
Nik Constantinou punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Tyler Page at the AppSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 3MISSED FG17 plays · 55 yds · 7:5910% → 13%
Q1 10:15
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+7
90.0%
Chase Brice pass complete to David Larkins for 7 yds to the AppSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+6
89.7%
Chase Brice pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 6 yds to the AppSt 40Similar
Q1 8:15
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+3
89.2%
Chase Brice pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 3 yds to the AppSt 43Similar
Q1 7:30
4TH & 1
OWN 43
+5
89.0%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the AppSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-10
88.2%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TexAM 46Similar
Q1 5:28
1ST & 20
OPP 46
+15
88.1%
Chase Brice pass complete to Tyler Page for 15 yds to the TexAM 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 4FUMBLE3 plays · 4 yds · 0:5187% → 87%
Q1 1:24
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
86.9%
Haynes King sacked by Jalen McLeod for 0 yards to the TexAM 29 Haynes King fumbled, recovered by TexAM Layden Robinson , return for 0 yards Layden Robinson fumbled, recovered by AppStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 5TD8 plays · 29 yds · 1:0615% → 18%
Q1 0:35
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+13
85.6%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (13 Yards) to the TexAM 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-13
85.2%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-13 Yards) to the TexAM 26Similar
Q1 0:24
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+13
85.2%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Face Mask (13 yards) (13 Yards) to the TexAM 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+9
85.0%
Ahmani Marshall run for 4 yds to the TexAM 9 for a 1ST down TEXAS A&M Penalty, Face Mask (5 yards) (5 Yards) to the TexAM 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 6TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:5383% → 87%
Q2 14:01
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+11
82.5%
Haynes King pass complete to Ainias Smith for 11 yds to the TexAM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-4
82.5%
Haynes King run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexAM 37 Haynes King fumbled, recovered by TexAMSimilar
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
82.7%
Haynes King pass complete to Ainias Smith for 6 yds to the AppSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 7DOWNS14 plays · 38 yds · 5:5616% → 20%
Q2 10:55
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+9
84.1%
Chase Brice pass complete to Christan Horn for 9 yds to the AppSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 2:0583% → 81%
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-4
83.2%
Haynes King sacked by Jalen McLeod for a loss of 4 yards to the TexAM 35Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 14
OWN 35
+6
81.9%
Haynes King pass complete to Yulkeith Brown for 6 yds to the TexAM 41Similar
Q2 3:25
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
81.0%
Nik Constantinou punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Tyler Page at the AppSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 9PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 1:2121% → 21%
TA&MDrive 10PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 0:2481% → 79%
Q2 1:27
4TH & 12
OWN 27
+12
78.9%
Nik Constantinou punt for 51 yds , Tyler Page returns for 12 yds to the AppSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 11END OF HALF2 plays · 5 yds · 0:4722% → 23%
TA&MDrive 12PUNT8 plays · 18 yds · 2:4580% → 78%
Q3 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
79.5%
Haynes King pass complete to Devon Achane for 5 yds to the TexAM 30Similar
Q3 14:09
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
78.8%
Haynes King pass complete to Ainias Smith for 6 yds to the TexAM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:42
3RD & 1
OWN 45
-2
79.7%
Haynes King pass complete to Ainias Smith for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 43Similar
Q3 12:10
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
78.0%
Nik Constantinou punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AppSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 13PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 1:2025% → 23%
TA&MDrive 14FUMBLE4 plays · 29 yds · 1:2477% → 78%
Q3 8:56
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+13
77.9%
Haynes King pass complete to Evan Stewart for 13 yds Evan Stewart fumbled, recovered by AppSt Nick HamptonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 15TD11 plays · 62 yds · 5:5628% → 57%
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+21
68.7%
Chase Brice pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 21 yds to the TexAM 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
66.9%
Chase Brice pass complete to Christan Horn for 3 yds to the TexAM 25Similar
Q3 2:34
3RD & 6
OPP 9
+9
43.1%
Chase Brice pass complete to Henry Pearson for 9 yds for a TD, (Michael Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 17FG21 plays · 63 yds · 9:0332% → 58%
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
67.8%
Chase Brice pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 2 yds to the AppSt 27Similar
Q3 0:54
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+6
67.5%
Chase Brice pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 6 yds to the AppSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+8
62.3%
Chase Brice pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 8 yds to the TexAM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
60.1%
Daetrich Harrington run for 8 yds to the AppSt 41 APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the AppSt 49Similar
Q4 12:31
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+10
61.8%
Chase Brice pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 10 yds to the TexAM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+12
57.7%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (12 Yards) to the TexAM 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 18MISSED FG13 plays · 45 yds · 3:4750% → 41%
Q4 7:01
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+15
44.7%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the TexAM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
48.3%
Haynes King pass complete to Evan Stewart for 5 yds to the TexAM 35Similar
Q4 6:10
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+19
49.5%
Haynes King pass complete to Evan Stewart for 19 yds to the AppSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
3RD & 11
OPP 35
+5
44.8%
Haynes King pass complete to Yulkeith Brown for 5 yds to the AppSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 19DOWNS13 plays · 34 yds · 3:3572% → 94%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:20
Michael Hughes kickoff for 60 yds , Devon Achane return for 95 yds for a TD, (Caden Davis KICK)
+25
TD · Q3 2:34
Chase Brice pass complete to Henry Pearson for 9 yds for a TD, (Michael Hughes KICK)
-19.9
FG · Q4 8:05
Michael Hughes 29 yd FG GOOD
-13.8