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TENN

Tennessee 34 at Pittsburgh 27

PITT
2022 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2022 · Acrisure Stadium
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Win probability · PITT
modelPITT aheadTENN aheadconfidence bandkey playPITT scoreTENN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:50 · Sam Vander Haar punt for 30 yds, downed at the Tenn 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+29.0+14.50−14.5−29.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 89Pregame prior−13.8Home team on offense−3.4Garbage-time factor−0.9Score differential−0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:25: Gavin Bartholomew 57 Yd pass from Kedon Slovis (Ben Sauls Kick) — PITT win probability +7.5 pts (now 42%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:56: Jabari Small 1 Yd Run (Chase McGrath Kick) — TENN win probability +10.8 pts (now 72%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 8:57: Chase McGrath 51 yd FG GOOD — TENN win probability +7.7 pts (now 80%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:23: Nick Patti pass complete to Jared Wayne for 4 yds for a TD, (Ben Sauls KICK) — PITT win probability +37.8 pts (now 56%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Hendon Hooker pass complete to Cedric Tillman for 28 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — TENN win probability +25.6 pts (now 85%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PITT made the numbers' call on 7 of 9TENN made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 14:25TENN 4th & 10 at TENN 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:27PITT 4th & 7 at TENN 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.0%
    86% to make
    Punt
    37.3%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:13TENN 4th & 8 at TENN 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.6%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:00TENN 4th & 3 at PITT 39, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.9%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    57.4%−0.6
    36% to make
    Punt
    57.4%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:31PITT 4th & 3 at TENN 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    48.0%−0.8
    62% to make
    Punt
    43.5%−5.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:50PITT 4th & 2 at PITT 47, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.0%−1.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:21TENN 4th & 17 at TENN 16, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.2%−4.0
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:49PITT 4th & 3 at TENN 28, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.4%−1.3
    60% to make
    Punt
    24.5%−9.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:34TENN 4th & 16 at TENN 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%−3.7
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:12PITT 4th & 14 at PITT 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.4%−3.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:13TENN 4th & 13 at TENN 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.2%−2.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:17PITT 4th & 9 at TENN 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%−2.0
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.6%
    79% to make
    Punt
    21.0%−11.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:26TENN 4th & 6 at PITT 33, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    68.4%−1.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    66.5%−3.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:57TENN 4th & 19 at PITT 34, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.8%−4.9
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.7%
    47% to make
    Punt
    65.6%−2.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:28PITT 4th & 8 at PITT 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:26PITT 4th & 1 at TENN 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    19.6%−5.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    14.3%−10.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:23PITT 4th & 4 at TENN 4, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    16.8%−9.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    9.2%−17.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:19TENN 4th & 3 at TENN 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.2%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PITT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TENN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:00PITT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:02TENN Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:25PITT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:04TENN Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:56TENN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:23PITT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.5%−0.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TENNDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2774% → 74%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
26.1%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jabari Small for no gain to the Tenn 25Similar
Q1 14:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
26.2%
Hendon Hooker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:34
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
26.2%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Jalin HyattSimilar
Q1 14:25
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
26.3%
Paxton Brooks punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Pitt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 2FG
9 plays · 43 yds · 3:4427% → 29%
Q1 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
26.5%
Israel Abanikanda run for 3 yds to the Pitt 48Similar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+8
27.0%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Jared Wayne for 8 yds to the Tenn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+14
27.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 14 yds to the Tenn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-3
27.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Jaylon Barden for a loss of 3 yards to the Tenn 33Similar
Q1 11:52
2ND & 13
OPP 33
+18
27.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Jared Wayne for 18 yds to the Tenn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
28.5%
Kedon Slovis run for 3 yds to the Tenn 12Similar
Q1 10:41
2ND & 7
OPP 12
0
28.6%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Konata MumpfieldSimilar
Q1 10:31
3RD & 7
OPP 12
0
28.6%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Konata MumpfieldSimilar
Q1 10:27
4TH & 7
OPP 12
+30
28.8%
Ben Sauls 30 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:1471% → 70%
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
28.6%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Princeton FantSimilar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
28.7%
Hendon Hooker run for no gain to the Tenn 25Similar
Q1 9:54
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+2
29.1%
Hendon Hooker run for 2 yds to the Tenn 27Similar
Q1 9:13
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
29.8%
Paxton Brooks punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Konata Mumpfield at the Pitt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 4TD
1 play · 76 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+76
30.8%
Israel Abanikanda 76 Yd Run (Ben Sauls Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 5DOWNS
11 plays · 36 yds · 3:0069% → 67%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
30.7%
Jaylen Wright run for 5 yds to the Tenn 30Similar
Q1 8:43
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+10
30.7%
Hendon Hooker run for 10 yds to the Tenn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
30.9%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Cedric TillmanSimilar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+6
31.1%
Jaylen Wright run for 6 yds to the Tenn 46Similar
Q1 8:05
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+8
31.1%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Cedric Tillman for 8 yds to the Pitt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-9
31.1%
Hendon Hooker run for 1 yd to the Tenn 45 TENNESSEE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Javontez Spraggins) to the Tenn 45Similar
Q1 7:16
1ST & 19
OWN 45
0
32.0%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Jacob WarrenSimilar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 19
OWN 45
+14
32.2%
Jaylen Wright run for 14 yds to the Pitt 41Similar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+2
32.0%
Jaylen Wright run for 2 yds to the Pitt 39Similar
Q1 6:00
4TH & 3
OPP 39
0
32.9%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Cedric TillmanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 6INT
6 plays · 40 yds · 1:4434% → 36%
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+18
34.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Jared Wayne for 18 yds to the Tenn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
35.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 7 yds to the Tenn 36Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+15
36.2%
Slovis, Kedon pass incomplete to Mumpfield, Konata, PENALTY TENNESSEE pass interference (McDonald, Tamarion) 15 yards to the TENNESSEE21, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PITTSBURGH.Similar
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
36.3%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Konata MumpfieldSimilar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
36.5%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Jared WayneSimilar
Q1 4:16
3RD & 10
OPP 21
0
36.3%
Kedon Slovis pass intercepted, touchback. Trevon Flowers return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 7TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 3:1465% → 68%
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
34.7%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jalin Hyatt for 6 yds to the Tenn 26Similar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+1
34.6%
Jaylen Wright run for 1 yd to the Tenn 27Similar
Q1 3:26
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+20
36.0%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Cedric Tillman for 20 yds to the Tenn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
35.4%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Cedric Tillman for 7 yds to the Pitt 46Similar
Q1 2:58
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+8
35.2%
Hendon Hooker run for 8 yds to the Pitt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
35.5%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Bru McCoy for 7 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+2
35.5%
Jaylen Wright run for 2 yds to the Pitt 29Similar
Q1 1:52
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+4
36.4%
Jaylen Wright run for 4 yds to the Pitt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
36.1%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Jalin HyattSimilar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+24
36.4%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jacob Warren for 24 yds to the Pitt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
32.3%
Jabari Small 1 Yd Run (Chase McGrath Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 8TD
7 plays · 83 yds · 2:3234% → 42%
Q1 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
33.9%
Israel Abanikanda run for 4 yds to the Pitt 21Similar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+5
34.3%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 5 yds to the Pitt 26Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+2
34.1%
Israel Abanikanda run for 2 yds to the Pitt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
35.0%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Jaden BradleySimilar
Q2 14:17
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+15
34.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Jared Wayne for 15 yds to the Pitt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+57
42.3%
Gavin Bartholomew 57 Yd pass from Kedon Slovis (Ben Sauls Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 9TD
11 plays · 71 yds · 3:1359% → 65%
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
41.4%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Princeton Fant for 8 yds to the Tenn 37Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+7
40.9%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Cedric Tillman for 7 yds to the Tenn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
41.2%
Hendon Hooker run for no gain to the Tenn 44Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+5
41.7%
Hendon Hooker run for 5 yds to the Tenn 49Similar
Q2 11:31
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+8
41.6%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Cedric Tillman for 8 yds to the Pitt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
41.5%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Cedric TillmanSimilar
Q2 11:09
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+9
41.7%
Hendon Hooker run for 9 yds to the Pitt 34Similar
Q2 10:48
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+2
42.3%
Jabari Small run for 2 yds to the Pitt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
35.4%
Bru McCoy 32 Yd pass from Hendon Hooker (Chase McGrath Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 10DOWNS
12 plays · 41 yds · 4:3337% → 43%
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
37.3%
Vincent Davis run for 3 yds to the Pitt 28Similar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
37.8%
Vincent Davis run for 8 yds to the Pitt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
38.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Bub Means for 11 yds to the Pitt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
42.2%
Israel Abanikanda run for 2 yds to the Pitt 49Similar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 8
OWN 49
0
42.6%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Bub MeansSimilar
Q2 7:22
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+17
41.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Jaylon Barden for 17 yds to the Tenn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
43.8%
Kedon Slovis run for no gain to the Tenn 34Similar
Q2 6:29
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
43.9%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Bub MeansSimilar
Q2 6:23
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+7
43.0%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Bub Means for 7 yds to the Tenn 27Similar
Q2 5:31
4TH & 3
OPP 27
-7
42.7%
Kedon Slovis sacked by Wesley Walker for a loss of 7 yards to the Tenn 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 11TD
3 plays · 66 yds · 0:3560% → 72%
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
39.9%
Jabari Small run for 4 yds to the Tenn 38Similar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+61
39.1%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Cedric Tillman for 61 yds to the PITTSBURGH 1, PITTSBURGH Penalty, Personal Foul (0 Yards) to the Pitt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
28.3%
Jabari Small 1 Yd Run (Chase McGrath Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 3:0632% → 32%
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
31.6%
Vincent Davis run for 1 yd to the Pitt 26Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
31.5%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Bub MeansSimilar
Q2 4:07
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+13
30.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Vincent Davis for 13 yds Vincent Davis fumbled, recovered by Pitt for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
33.2%
Vincent Davis run for no gain to the Pitt 39Similar
Q2 2:51
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
32.8%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Bub MeansSimilar
Q2 2:43
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+8
31.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 8 yds to the Pitt 47Similar
Q2 1:50
4TH & 2
OWN 47
0
32.3%
Sam Vander Haar punt for 30 yds, downed at the Tenn 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 1:2969% → 66%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-4
31.5%
Hendon Hooker run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tenn 19Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 14
OWN 19
-5
32.1%
Hendon Hooker sacked by David Green for a loss of 5 yards to the Tenn 14Similar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 19
OWN 14
+2
33.3%
Hendon Hooker run for 2 yds to the Tenn 16Similar
Q2 0:21
4TH & 17
OWN 16
0
34.0%
Paxton Brooks punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Pitt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 14FUMBLE
1 play · -9 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-9
31.4%
Kedon Slovis sacked by Tyler Baron for a loss of 9 yards to the Pitt 28 Kedon Slovis fumbled, forced by Tyler Baron, recovered by Tenn Omari Thomas , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 15END OF HALF
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:1472% → 78%
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
27.9%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Cedric TillmanSimilar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+8
28.2%
Jaylen Wright run for 8 yds to the Pitt 20Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+37
21.9%
Chase McGrath 37 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 16MISSED FG
10 plays · 47 yds · 4:1128% → 29%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
27.8%
Israel Abanikanda run for 4 yds to the Pitt 29Similar
Q3 14:23
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
28.3%
Nick Patti pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 1 yd to the Pitt 30Similar
Q3 13:36
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+10
27.6%
Nick Patti run for no gain to the Pitt 30 for a 1ST down TENNESSEE Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Pitt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+25
29.6%
Israel Abanikanda run for 25 yds to the Tenn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
32.2%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Delay of Game (Nick Patti) to the Tenn 40Similar
Q3 12:22
1ST & 15
OPP 40
0
29.6%
Israel Abanikanda run for no gain to the Tenn 40Similar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 15
OPP 40
+12
29.4%
Nick Patti pass complete to Jared Wayne for 12 yds to the Tenn 28Similar
Q3 11:02
3RD & 3
OPP 28
0
31.1%
Nick Patti pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:49
4TH & 3
OPP 28
+46
29.4%
Ben Sauls 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 2:1574% → 72%
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
25.9%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jalin Hyatt for 9 yds to the Tenn 37Similar
Q3 10:33
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+5
25.0%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jalin Hyatt for 5 yds to the Tenn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-6
24.4%
Hendon Hooker sacked by Brandon George for a loss of 6 yards to the Tenn 36Similar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 16
OWN 36
-15
26.6%
Hooker, Hendon pass complete to McCoy, Bru for 19 yards to the PITTSBURGH45, PENALTY TENNESSEE pass interference 15 yards to the TENNESSEE21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:23
2ND & 31
OWN 21
0
27.0%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Cedric TillmanSimilar
Q3 9:17
3RD & 31
OWN 21
+15
27.8%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Cedric Tillman for 15 yds to the Tenn 36Similar
Q3 8:34
4TH & 16
OWN 36
0
28.0%
Paxton Brooks punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jaylon Barden at the Pitt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:2228% → 26%
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-8
27.8%
Abanikanda, Israel rush for 7 yards to the PITTSBURGH24, PENALTY PITTSBURGH holding 8 yards to the PITTSBURGH9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:14
1ST & 18
OWN 9
+4
27.4%
Nick Patti pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 4 yds to the Pitt 13Similar
Q3 7:32
2ND & 14
OWN 13
0
27.6%
Nick Patti pass incomplete to Jared WayneSimilar
Q3 7:27
3RD & 14
OWN 13
0
26.5%
Nick Patti pass incomplete to Konata MumpfieldSimilar
Q3 7:12
4TH & 14
OWN 13
+4
26.0%
Sam Vander Haar punt for 39 yds , Trevon Flowers returns for 4 yds to the Pitt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:5977% → 74%
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
23.1%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Cedric TillmanSimilar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-5
23.1%
TENNESSEE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tenn 47Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 15
OWN 47
0
24.6%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Jacob WarrenSimilar
Q3 7:01
3RD & 15
OWN 47
+2
25.3%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jalin Hyatt for 2 yds to the Tenn 49Similar
Q3 6:13
4TH & 13
OWN 49
+6
26.3%
TEAM punt blocked by P.J. O'Brien blocked by P.J. O'Brien P.J. O'Brien return for 6 yds to the Tenn 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 20MISSED FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5634% → 29%
Q3 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
33.5%
Israel Abanikanda run for 1 yd to the Tenn 18Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 9
OPP 18
0
33.7%
Nick Patti pass incomplete to Jared WayneSimilar
Q3 5:26
3RD & 9
OPP 18
0
31.8%
Nick Patti pass incomplete to Jared WayneSimilar
Q3 5:17
4TH & 9
OPP 18
+36
29.4%
Ben Sauls 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 21FUMBLE
4 plays · 24 yds · 0:5775% → 77%
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
25.5%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jalin Hyatt for 10 yds to the Tenn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
24.8%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jalin Hyatt for 9 yds to the Tenn 39Similar
Q3 4:53
2ND & 1
OWN 39
0
23.0%
Jalin Hyatt run for no gain to the Tenn 39Similar
Q3 4:20
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+5
23.2%
Jaylen Wright run for 5 yds to the Tenn 44 Jaylen Wright fumbled, forced by Tylar Wiltz, recovered by Pitt Erick Hallett IISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 22FG
12 plays · 27 yds · 5:1332% → 36%
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
32.1%
Israel Abanikanda run for 4 yds to the Tenn 40Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+3
32.3%
Israel Abanikanda run for 3 yds to the Tenn 37Similar
Q3 3:26
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+4
32.0%
Israel Abanikanda run for 4 yds to the Tenn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
34.0%
Israel Abanikanda run for no gain to the Tenn 33Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+12
34.0%
Nick Patti pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 12 yds to the Tenn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
34.2%
Israel Abanikanda run for 8 yds to the Tenn 13Similar
Q3 1:10
2ND & 2
OPP 13
+8
34.3%
Israel Abanikanda run for 8 yds to the Tenn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
34.4%
Israel Abanikanda run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 6Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
32.2%
Nick Patti run for 5 yds to the Tenn 1 PITTSBURGH Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Tenn 11Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
32.2%
Nick Patti pass incomplete to Konata MumpfieldSimilar
Q4 14:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
-6
30.1%
Nick Patti sacked by Byron Young for a loss of 6 yards to the Tenn 17Similar
Q4 14:07
4TH & 0
OPP 17
+35
36.0%
Ben Sauls 35 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 23FG
17 plays · 41 yds · 5:1070% → 80%
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
30.5%
Jabari Small run for 1 yd to the Tenn 26Similar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
30.6%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Cedric TillmanSimilar
Q4 13:44
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+12
31.9%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Bru McCoy for 12 yds to the Tenn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
28.5%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Bru McCoy for 7 yds to the Tenn 45Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+5
27.9%
Jabari Small run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
50
+7
27.2%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jalin Hyatt for 7 yds to the Pitt 43Similar
Q4 12:38
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+6
26.8%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jalin Hyatt for 6 yds to the Pitt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
26.8%
Jabari Small run for no gain to the Pitt 37Similar
Q4 11:48
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+3
26.7%
Jabari Small run for 3 yds to the Pitt 34Similar
Q4 11:11
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+1
27.0%
Jabari Small run for 1 yd to the Pitt 33Similar
Q4 10:26
4TH & 6
OPP 33
+8
28.2%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Cedric Tillman for 8 yds to the Pitt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
23.6%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Ramel KeytonSimilar
Q4 10:03
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
24.1%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Cedric TillmanSimilar
Q4 9:59
3RD & 10
OPP 25
-5
25.8%
TENNESSEE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 30Similar
Q4 9:59
3RD & 15
OPP 30
-4
27.6%
Hendon Hooker sacked by Calijah Kancey for a loss of 4 yards to the Pitt 34Similar
Q4 8:57
4TH & 19
OPP 34
+51
19.9%
Chase McGrath 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 24FUMBLE
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:1524% → 21%
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
23.9%
Israel Abanikanda run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 15Similar
Q4 8:25
2ND & 11
OWN 15
+3
23.6%
Israel Abanikanda run for 3 yds to the Pitt 18Similar
Q4 7:35
3RD & 8
OWN 18
0
21.8%
Nick Patti pass incomplete to Konata MumpfieldSimilar
Q4 7:28
4TH & 8
OWN 18
+42
20.7%
Sam Vander Haar punt for 42 yds , Trevon Flowers returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 39 Trevon Flowers fumbled, recovered by Pitt Byron FloydSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 25TD
14 plays · 39 yds · 4:5229% → 56%
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
28.6%
Israel Abanikanda run for no gain to the Tenn 39Similar
Q4 6:44
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+7
26.4%
Nick Patti pass complete to Jared Wayne for 7 yds to the Tenn 32Similar
Q4 5:35
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+2
26.2%
Vincent Davis run for 2 yds to the Tenn 30Similar
Q4 5:26
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+11
23.3%
Israel Abanikanda run for 11 yds to the Tenn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-3
26.7%
Israel Abanikanda run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tenn 22Similar
Q4 4:22
2ND & 13
OPP 22
-5
25.5%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Illegal Shift (-5 Yards) to the Tenn 27Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 18
OPP 27
+21
24.0%
Nick Patti pass complete to Israel Abanikanda for 21 yds to the Tenn 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
28.0%
Israel Abanikanda run for 2 yds to the Tenn 4Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
27.9%
Israel Abanikanda run for no gain to the Tenn 4Similar
Q4 2:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
24.8%
Nick Patti pass incomplete to Gavin BartholomewSimilar
Q4 2:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
56.1%
Nick Patti pass complete to Jared Wayne for 4 yds for a TD, (Ben Sauls KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:5154% → 55%
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
46.2%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jalin Hyatt for 8 yds to the Tenn 33Similar
Q4 2:08
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
42.7%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jalin Hyatt for 5 yds to the Tenn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
43.5%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jalin Hyatt for 6 yds to the Tenn 44Similar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 4
OWN 44
-1
40.6%
Jabari Small run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 43Similar
Q4 1:03
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+2
42.5%
Hendon Hooker run for 2 yds to the Tenn 45Similar
Q4 0:19
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
45.5%
Paxton Brooks punt for 40 yds, downed at the Pitt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
54.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 28TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:0059% → 85%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
41.1%
Hendon Hooker run for 7 yds to the Pitt 18Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 18
-10
41.1%
Hooker, Hendon rush for 18 yards to the PITTSBURGH0, PENALTY TENNESSEE holding 10 yards to the PITTSBURGH28, NO PLAY.Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 13
OPP 28
+28
15.5%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Cedric Tillman for 28 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 29Uncategorized
9 plays · 5 yds · 0:0028% → 21%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-3
28.0%
Israel Abanikanda run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tenn 28Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 13
OPP 28
0
21.9%
Nick Patti pass incomplete to Jared WayneSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 13
OPP 28
+8
18.7%
Nick Patti pass complete to Bub Means for 8 yds to the Tenn 20Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+10
20.2%
Nick Patti pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 10 yds to the Tenn 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
28.0%
Israel Abanikanda run for 2 yds to the Tenn 8Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
28.0%
Nick Patti pass incomplete to Konata MumpfieldSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-12
25.5%
Nick Patti sacked by Trevon Flowers for a loss of 12 yards to the Tenn 20Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 0
OPP 20
0
21.3%
Nick Patti pass incomplete to Konata MumpfieldSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:23
Nick Patti pass complete to Jared Wayne for 4 yds for a TD, (Ben Sauls KICK)
+37.8
TD · OT 0:00
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Cedric Tillman for 28 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)
-25.6
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-21.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com