Try the model
CARK

Central Arkansas 3 at Ole Miss 59

MISS
2022 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2022 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadCARK aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreCARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:30 · Fraser Masin punt for 46 yds , Jarrod Barnes returns for a loss of 2 yards to the CArk 6
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 171Pregame prior+5.6Home team on offense+34.4Score differential+30.5Blowout margin+17.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+13.2Garbage-time factor+14.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 12:55: Michael Trigg 7 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (Jonathan Cruz Kick) — CARK win probability +0.1 pts (now 2%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 7:09: Ladarius Tennison 25 Yd Fumble Return (Jonathan Cruz Kick) — CARK win probability +0.3 pts (now 2%) (top driver: CARK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 5:02: Michael Trigg 4 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (Jonathan Cruz Kick) — MISS win probability +0.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q1 0:21: Luke Altmyer 1 Yd Run (Jonathan Cruz Kick) — MISS win probability +0.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 11:38: Zach Evans 3 Yd Run (Jonathan Cruz Kick) — MISS win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 5 of 6CARK made the numbers' call on 14 of 17
  1. Q1 7:09CARK 4th & 7 at CARK 49, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.6%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:35CARK 4th & 3 at CARK 20, down 14
    Close callPunted · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:50CARK 4th & 5 at CARK 30, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:25CARK 4th & 9 at CARK 46, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:06MISS 4th & 4 at CARK 6, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    99.1%−0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    98.3%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:06MISS 4th & 4 at CARK 6, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    99.1%−0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    98.3%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:03CARK 4th & 8 at CARK 8, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:04MISS 4th & 18 at CARK 43, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%−0.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    99.2%−<0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:29CARK 4th & 9 at MISS 49, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:51CARK 4th & 10 at MISS 23, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%
    70% to make
    Punt
    -0.5%−1.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:21CARK 4th & 6 at CARK 29, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:58CARK 4th & 5 at CARK 30, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:58CARK 4th & 5 at CARK 30, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:38CARK 4th & 2 at CARK 43, down 45
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:38CARK 4th & 2 at CARK 43, down 45
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q3 5:44MISS 4th & 12 at CARK 46, up 45
    Close callWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    23% to make
    Punt
    99.9%
    average punt
  17. Q3 3:56CARK 4th & 4 at MISS 48, down 45
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  18. Q3 3:56CARK 4th & 4 at MISS 48, down 45
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 15:00CARK 4th & 1 at CARK 34, down 52
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 9:54CARK 4th & 13 at MISS 13, down 52
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.0%
    85% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.3
    average punt
  21. Q4 8:15MISS 4th & 15 at MISS 29, up 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  22. Q4 6:27CARK 4th & 10 at CARK 9, down 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
  23. Q4 3:30MISS 4th & 26 at MISS 46, up 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    100.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 12:55MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:09MISS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:02MISS Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:21MISS Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:38MISS Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:09MISS Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:19MISS Touchdown, up 51 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:23MISS Touchdown, up 55 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1TD
7 plays · 70 yds · 1:5999% → 98%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+36
98.5%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 36 yds to the CArk 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+36
98.5%
Zach Evans run for 16 yds to the CArk 18 for a 1ST down Luke Altmyer pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 36 yds to the CArk 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+16
98.5%
Zach Evans run for 16 yds to the CArk 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
98.5%
Zach Evans run for 2 yds to the CArk 16Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+6
98.5%
Jaylon Robinson run for 6 yds to the CArk 10Similar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+3
98.5%
Zach Evans run for 3 yds to the CArk 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
98.4%
Michael Trigg 7 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (Jonathan Cruz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 2FUMBLE RETURN TD
10 plays · 0 yds · 5:462% → 2%
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
98.3%
Darius Hale run for 8 yds to the CArk 33Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
98.3%
Darius Hale run for 2 yds to the CArk 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
98.3%
Will McElvain run for no gain to the CArk 35Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
98.3%
Will McElvain run for 2 yds to the CArk 37Similar
Q1 12:55
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+9
98.3%
Trysten Smith run for 9 yds to the CArk 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
98.3%
CENTRAL ARK Penalty, Illegal Snap on GREEN, Jack enforced (-5 Yards) to the CArk 41Similar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+7
98.3%
Trysten Smith run for 7 yds to the CArk 48Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 8
OWN 48
0
98.3%
Will McElvain pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:55
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+1
98.3%
Darius Hale run for 1 yd to the CArk 49Similar
Q1 7:09
4TH & 7
OWN 49
+25
98.1%
Ladarius Tennison 25 Yd Fumble Return (Jonathan Cruz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:292% → 2%
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
98.1%
Kylin James run for 3 yds to the CArk 16Similar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 7
OWN 16
0
98.1%
Will McElvain pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:04
3RD & 7
OWN 16
+4
98.1%
Will McElvain run for 4 yds to the CArk 20Similar
Q1 5:35
4TH & 3
OWN 20
0
98.0%
punt blocked by Bobo Miller blocked by Bobo MillerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 4TD
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:3398% → 98%
Q1 5:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
98.1%
Zach Evans run for no gain to the CArk 4Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
98.4%
Michael Trigg 4 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (Jonathan Cruz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 2:122% → 2%
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.4%
Darius Hale run for 3 yds to the CArk 28Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
98.4%
Will McElvain pass complete to Jarrod Barnes for 4 yds to the CArk 32Similar
Q1 5:02
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-2
98.4%
Darius Hale run for a loss of 2 yards to the CArk 30Similar
Q1 2:50
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+35
98.4%
Chandler Caughron punt for 40 yds CENTRAL ARK Penalty, Illegal Motion (James Jordan) to the Miss 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 6TD
13 plays · 65 yds · 2:2998% → 99%
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
98.3%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 16 yds to the CArk 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
98.3%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 16 yds to the CArk 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+14
98.4%
Quinshon Judkins run for 14 yds to the CArk 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-14
98.4%
JUDKINS, Quinshon rush to the left for a gain of 3 yards to the UCA32 (WALKER, David;BEDELL, Jalen). PENALTY OLE Block below the waist on ACKER, Eli enforced 14 yards from the UCA35 to the UCA49 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 24
OPP 49
+26
98.2%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Malik Heath for 26 yds to the CArk 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+13
98.4%
ALTMYER, Luke pass to the left incomplete intended for MINGO, Jonathan thrown to the UCA0. PENALTY UCA Pass Interference on JORDAN, James enforced at the spot of the foul for 13 yards to the UCA10 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
98.4%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
98.4%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the CArk 8Similar
Q1 2:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
98.4%
ALTMYER, Luke pass to the right incomplete intended for TRIGG, Michael thrown to the UCA0. PENALTY UCA Pass Interference on GODFREY, Cameron enforced at the spot of the foul for 6 yards to the UCA2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
98.4%
ALTMYER, Luke pass to the right incomplete intended for TRIGG, Michael thrown to the UCA0. PENALTY UCA Pass Interference on GODFREY, Cameron enforced at the spot of the foul for 6 yards to the UCA2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
98.4%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Michael Trigg for 1 yd to the CArk 1Similar
Q1 2:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
98.4%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Michael Trigg for 1 yd to the CArk 1Similar
Q1 0:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.1%
Luke Altmyer 1 Yd Run (Jonathan Cruz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:351% → 1%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.1%
Will McElvain pass complete to Jarrod Barnes for 6 yds to the CArk 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
99.1%
Darius Hale run for 3 yds to the CArk 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+11
99.1%
Darius Hale run for 11 yds to the CArk 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
99.1%
Will McElvain pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+4
99.1%
Will McElvain pass complete to Trysten Smith for 4 yds to the CArk 49Similar
Q2 12:33
3RD & 6
OWN 49
-3
99.0%
Will McElvain sacked by Jared Ivey and Khari Coleman for a loss of 3 yards to the CArk 46Similar
Q2 12:25
4TH & 9
OWN 46
0
99.1%
Will McElvain punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 8DOWNS
15 plays · 87 yds · 4:1999% → 99%
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
99.0%
Zach Evans run for no gain to the Miss 7Similar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+10
98.9%
Zach Evans run for 10 yds to the Miss 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
99.0%
Zach Evans run for 8 yds to the Miss 25Similar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+4
99.0%
Zach Evans run for 4 yds to the Miss 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
99.1%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+25
99.0%
Quinshon Judkins run for 25 yds to the CArk 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
99.1%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Miss 49Similar
Q2 12:25
1ST & 15
OWN 49
+5
99.1%
run for 5 yds to the CArk 46Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+34
99.2%
Quinshon Judkins run for 34 yds to the CArk 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
99.2%
Quinshon Judkins run for 4 yds to the CArk 8Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+2
99.2%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the CArk 6Similar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 4
OPP 6
0
99.1%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:06
4TH & 4
OPP 6
0
99.3%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:06
4TH & 4
OPP 6
0
99.3%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 2:031% → 1%
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+1
99.3%
Darius Hale run for 1 yd to the CArk 7Similar
Q2 8:06
2ND & 9
OWN 7
+1
99.3%
Darius Hale run for 1 yd to the CArk 8Similar
Q2 8:06
3RD & 8
OWN 8
0
99.3%
Will McElvain pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:03
4TH & 8
OWN 8
+13
99.5%
Chandler Caughron punt for 40 yds , Jonathan Mingo returns for 13 yds to the CArk 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:5999% → 99%
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-8
99.3%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Logan Jessup for a loss of 8 yards to the CArk 43Similar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 18
OPP 43
0
99.3%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 18
OPP 43
0
99.3%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:03
3RD & 18
OPP 43
0
99.3%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:04
4TH & 18
OPP 43
+23
99.3%
Fraser Masin punt for 40 yds , Jarrod Barnes returns for 23 yds to the CArk 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 3:351% → 0%
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+13
99.5%
Will McElvain pass complete to Jarrod Barnes for 13 yds to the CArk 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
99.5%
Will McElvain pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+9
99.5%
Will McElvain pass complete to Myles Butler for 9 yds to the CArk 48Similar
Q2 5:04
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+2
99.5%
Kylin James run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
50
0
99.5%
Will McElvain run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 10
50
+1
99.5%
Darius Hale run for 1 yd to the Miss 49Similar
Q2 5:04
3RD & 9
OPP 49
0
99.5%
Will McElvain pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:29
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
99.6%
Will McElvain punt for 21 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 12INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
99.6%
Luke Altmyer pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 13INT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:310% → 1%
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+14
99.6%
Will McElvain pass complete to Jarrod Barnes for 14 yds to the Miss 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
99.5%
Will McElvain pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
99.6%
Will McElvain pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 10
OPP 23
0
99.6%
Will McElvain pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:51
4TH & 10
OPP 23
0
99.5%
Will McElvain pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 14FG
9 plays · 57 yds · 0:51100% → 100%
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
99.6%
Jaxson Dart run for 7 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+20
99.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Malik Heath for 20 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
99.6%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
99.6%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+14
99.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Michael Trigg for 14 yds to the CArk 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+16
99.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 16 yds to the CArk 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+41
99.7%
Jonathan Cruz 41 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:390% → 0%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.6%
Jarrod Barnes run for 2 yds to the CArk 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
99.6%
Trysten Smith run for 2 yds to the CArk 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
99.6%
Will McElvain pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:21
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
99.7%
Chandler Caughron punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Mingo at the Miss 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 16TD
5 plays · 69 yds · 1:43100% → 100%
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
99.7%
Jaylon Robinson run for 8 yds to the Miss 39Similar
Q3 13:21
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+5
99.6%
Zach Evans run for 5 yds to the Miss 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+51
99.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 51 yds to the CArk 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
99.7%
Zach Evans run for 2 yds to the CArk 3Similar
Q3 11:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.8%
Zach Evans 3 Yd Run (Jonathan Cruz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:400% → 0%
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.8%
Darius Hale run for 3 yds to the CArk 28Similar
Q3 11:38
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
99.8%
Will McElvain pass complete to Myles Kitt-Denton for 2 yds to the CArk 30Similar
Q3 11:38
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
99.8%
Will McElvain pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:58
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
99.8%
Chandler Caughron punt for 35 ydsSimilar
Q3 9:58
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
99.8%
Chandler Caughron punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 1:49100% → 100%
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
99.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 1 yd to the Miss 36Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 9
OWN 36
-5
99.8%
DART, Jaxson pass up the middle complete for 39 yards to MINGO, Jonathan caught at the UCA30 and advanced to the UCA25 (EMBRY, Laquez). PENALTY OLE Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on WARREN, Caleb enforced 5 yards from the OLE36 to the OLE31 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 14
OWN 31
+15
99.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 15 yds to the Miss 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+13
99.8%
Quinshon Judkins run for 13 yds to the CArk 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+39
99.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 39 yds to the CArk 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.8%
Michael Trigg 2 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Jonathan Cruz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 19DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:310% → 0%
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
99.9%
Kylin James run for 5 yds to the CArk 40Similar
Q3 8:09
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
99.9%
Will McElvain pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:09
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+3
99.9%
Kylin James run for 3 yds to the CArk 43Similar
Q3 6:38
4TH & 2
OWN 43
+1
99.9%
Kylin James run for 1 yd to the CArk 44Similar
Q3 6:38
4TH & 2
OWN 43
+1
99.9%
Kylin James run for 1 yd to the CArk 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20DOWNS
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:54100% → 100%
Q3 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
99.8%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:38
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-2
99.8%
Jaxson Dart run for a loss of 2 yards to the CArk 46Similar
Q3 6:38
3RD & 12
OPP 46
0
99.8%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:44
4TH & 12
OPP 46
0
99.8%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 21DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:480% → 0%
Q3 5:44
2ND & 19
OWN 37
+9
99.9%
Will McElvain pass complete to Darius Hale for 9 yds to the CArk 46Similar
Q3 5:44
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+6
99.9%
Darius Hale run for 6 yds to the Miss 48Similar
Q3 3:56
4TH & 4
OPP 48
+2
99.9%
Will McElvain run for 2 yds to the Miss 46Similar
Q3 3:56
4TH & 4
OPP 48
+2
99.9%
Will McElvain run for 2 yds to the Miss 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 22TD
10 plays · 54 yds · 2:37100% → 100%
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
99.9%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the Miss 48Similar
Q3 3:56
2ND & 8
OWN 48
-10
99.9%
DART, Jaxson pass to the right complete for -1 yard to WATKINS, Jordan caught at the OLE46 and advanced to the OLE47 (GREEN, Detravion). PENALTY OLE Holding on BROOKS, Mason enforced 10 yards from the OLE48 to the OLE38 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:56
2ND & 8
OWN 48
-10
99.9%
DART, Jaxson pass to the right complete for -1 yard to WATKINS, Jordan caught at the OLE46 and advanced to the OLE47 (GREEN, Detravion). PENALTY OLE Holding on BROOKS, Mason enforced 10 yards from the OLE48 to the OLE38 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:56
2ND & 18
OWN 38
+18
99.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to JJ Henry for 18 yds to the CArk 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
99.9%
Quinshon Judkins run for no gain to the CArk 44Similar
Q3 3:56
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+4
99.9%
JJ Henry run for 4 yds to the CArk 40Similar
Q3 3:56
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+8
99.9%
Quinshon Judkins run for 8 yds to the CArk 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
99.9%
DART, Jaxson pass to the right incomplete intended for HENRY, JJ thrown to the UCA0. PENALTY UCA Pass Interference on SMITH, Sean enforced 15 yards to the UCA17 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+11
99.9%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 11 yds to the CArk 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.9%
Malik Heath 6 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Christian Schanefelt Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 23FG
15 plays · 62 yds · 5:320% → 0%
Q3 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
100.0%
Trysten Smith run for 2 yds to the CArk 27Similar
Q3 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
100.0%
Trysten Smith run for 2 yds to the CArk 27Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
100.0%
Will McElvain pass complete to Kylin James for 7 yds to the CArk 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
100.0%
Darius Hale run for no gain to the CArk 34Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
100.0%
pass complete to Austin Eldridge for 3 yds to the CArk 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
100.0%
Darius Hale run for 5 yds to the CArk 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+3
100.0%
Darius Hale run for 3 yds to the CArk 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+6
100.0%
Will McElvain pass complete to Jarrod Barnes for 6 yds to the Miss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+41
100.0%
Will McElvain pass complete to Will McElvain for 41 yds to the Miss 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
100.0%
Kylin James run for 2 yds to the Miss 6Similar
Q4 10:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 21
+8
100.0%
Will McElvain pass complete to Riyadh Ananda for 8 yds to the Miss 13Similar
Q4 10:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
0
100.0%
Will McElvain pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-15
100.0%
MCELVAIN, Will pass to the right complete for 6 yards to ELDRIDGE, Austin caught at the OLE4 and advanced to the OLE0, TOUCHDOWN UCA, score nullified by penalty, clock 10:43. PENALTY UCA Pass Interference on ELDRIDGE, Austin enforced 15 yards to the OLE21 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+31
100.0%
Hayden Ray 31 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:36100% → 100%
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-10
99.9%
DART, Jaxson pass up the middle incomplete intended for HENRY, JJ thrown to the OLE30. PENALTY OLE Holding on WARREN, Caleb enforced 10 yards from the OLE34 to the OLE24 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:51
1ST & 20
OWN 24
-2
99.9%
Kinkead Dent pass complete to JJ Henry for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 22Similar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 22
OWN 22
+7
99.9%
Kinkead Dent pass complete to Dayton Wade for 7 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q4 9:51
3RD & 15
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Kinkead Dent pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:15
4TH & 15
OWN 29
+51
99.9%
Fraser Masin punt for 51 yds , returns for no gain to the CArk 40 , returns for no gain to the CArk 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:480% → 0%
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
100.0%
Trysten Smith run for 2 yds to the CArk 11Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 8
OWN 11
-2
100.0%
Trysten Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the CArk 9Similar
Q4 8:15
3RD & 10
OWN 9
0
100.0%
CENTRAL ARK Penalty, Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on COX, Jacob ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 6:27
4TH & 10
OWN 9
0
100.0%
Chandler Caughron punt for 46 yds, downed at the Miss 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 26PUNT
8 plays · 1 yds · 2:57100% → 100%
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
100.0%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 17 yds to the CArk 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-10
100.0%
BENTLEY IV, Ulysses rush to the left for a gain of 3 yards to the UCA35 (CUEVAS, Kameryn;GREEN, Detravion). PENALTY OLE Holding on HEATH, Kyirin enforced 10 yards from the UCA38 to the UCA48 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 20
OPP 48
-10
100.0%
OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Malik Heath) to the Miss 46Similar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 26
OWN 46
-10
100.0%
OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Miss 40Similar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 32
OWN 40
+3
99.9%
Isaiah Woullard run for 3 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 29
OWN 43
+3
99.9%
Isaiah Woullard run for 3 yds to the Miss 46Similar
Q4 6:27
3RD & 26
OWN 46
0
100.0%
Kinkead Dent pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:30
4TH & 26
OWN 46
-2
100.0%
Fraser Masin punt for 46 yds , Jarrod Barnes returns for a loss of 2 yards to the CArk 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 27TD
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:07100% → 100%
Q4 3:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
100.0%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CArk 11Similar
Q4 3:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
100.0%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CArk 11Similar
Q4 3:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
100.0%
Ulysses Bentley IV 11 Yd Run (Christian Schanefelt Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 28INT
7 plays · 51 yds · 2:480% → 0%
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
100.0%
Clifton McDowell run for 12 yds to the CArk 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
100.0%
Clifton McDowell pass complete to John David White for 5 yds to the CArk 42Similar
Q4 3:23
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+12
100.0%
Clifton McDowell run for 12 yds to the Miss 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
100.0%
Clifton McDowell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:23
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+13
100.0%
Kylin James run for 13 yds to the Miss 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
100.0%
Kylin James run for 9 yds to the Miss 24Similar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 1
OPP 24
0
100.0%
Clifton McDowell pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 0:21
Luke Altmyer 1 Yd Run (Jonathan Cruz Kick)
+0.7
TD · Q1 7:09
Ladarius Tennison 25 Yd Fumble Return (Jonathan Cruz Kick)
-0.3
TD · Q1 5:02
Michael Trigg 4 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (Jonathan Cruz Kick)
+0.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com