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Win probability · UGA
modelUGA aheadSAM aheadconfidence bandkey playUGA scoreSAM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:53 · Bradley Porcellato punt for 39 yds , Ladd McConkey returns for 21 yds to the Samf 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- KEY PLAY · Q1 1:50: Stetson Bennett run for 1 yd to the Samf 19 — SAM win probability +0.1 pts (now 1%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q1 0:22: Stetson Bennett run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:48: Stetson Bennett pass complete to Dillon Bell for 3 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +0.4 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:55: Kenny McIntosh run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +0.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UGA made the numbers' call on 6 of 8SAM made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
- Q1 13:29SAM 4th & 7 at SAM 28, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q1 7:51UGA 4th & 7 at SAM 9, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.4% before the snapGo for it99.3%−<0.130% to convertField goalTheir call99.4%89% to makePunt98.9%−0.5average punt
- Q1 5:34UGA 4th & 6 at SAM 7, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.3% before the snapGo for it99.3%−<0.132% to convertField goalTheir call99.3%91% to makePunt98.8%−0.5average punt
- Q1 4:06SAM 4th & 3 at SAM 32, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.8%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
- Q2 13:22SAM 4th & 3 at SAM 32, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.9%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.9%average punt
- Q2 7:53SAM 4th & 9 at SAM 26, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.5%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q2 5:01UGA 4th & 8 at SAM 8, up 20Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.4% before the snapGo for it99.3%−<0.126% to convertField goalTheir call99.3%90% to makePunt98.9%−0.4average punt
- Q2 3:49SAM 4th & 1 at SAM 44, down 23Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.7%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.6%−0.1average punt
- Q2 0:31SAM 4th & 4 at SAM 31, down 30Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 10:34UGA 4th & 26 at SAM 36, up 30Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.17% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%42% to makePunt99.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 9:00SAM 4th & 5 at SAM 41, down 30Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 4:43UGA 4th & 6 at SAM 43, up 30Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it100.0%40% to convertField goal99.9%−0.128% to makePuntTheir call99.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 2:34SAM 4th & 10 at SAM 23, down 30Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 11:11UGA 4th & 7 at SAM 7, up 30Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−<0.128% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%91% to makePunt99.4%−0.5average punt
- Q4 6:55SAM 4th & 18 at UGA 39, down 33Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.113% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.136% to makePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
- Q4 4:58UGA 4th & 6 at UGA 24, up 33Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 3:20SAM 4th & 8 at SAM 30, down 33Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 1:58UGA 4th & 2 at UGA 32, up 33Close callPunted · 100.0% before the snapGo for it100.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UGA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 0:22UGA Touchdown, up 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:48UGA Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:55UGA Touchdown, up 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSAMDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:110% → 0%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
99.7%
Michael Hiers pass complete to Jay Stanton for a loss of 3 yards to the Samf 22Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+2
99.6%
Michael Hiers pass complete to Jay Stanton for 2 yds to the Samf 28Similar
Q1 13:29
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
99.6%
Bradley Porcellato punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Ladd McConkey at the Geo 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 2FG13 plays · 47 yds · 5:06100% → 99%
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
99.6%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 4 yds to the Geo 48Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 4
50
+7
99.6%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Jackson Meeks for 7 yds to the Samf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+11
99.5%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint for 11 yds to the Samf 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+12
99.5%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Daijun Edwards for 12 yds to the Samf 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:17
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+7
99.5%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kendall Milton for 7 yds to the Samf 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 3FUMBLE5 plays · 11 yds · 0:381% → 1%
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.4%
Michael Hiers pass complete to Kendall Watson for 10 yds to the Samf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:59
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+5
99.4%
Michael Hiers run for 5 yds to the Samf 41 Michael Hiers fumbled, forced by Dan Jackson, recovered by Geo Xavian Sorey Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 4FG5 plays · 34 yds · 1:1899% → 99%
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+30
99.4%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kenny McIntosh for 30 yds to the Samf 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:111% → 1%
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.3%
Michael Hiers pass complete to Chandler Smith for 4 yds to the Samf 29Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
99.3%
Michael Hiers pass complete to Jay Stanton for 4 yds to the Samf 33Similar
Q1 4:06
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+11
99.3%
Bradley Porcellato punt for 50 yds , Ladd McConkey returns for 11 yds to the Geo 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 6TD8 plays · 71 yds · 3:3399% → 99%
Q1 3:30
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+37
99.3%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 37 yds to the Samf 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 7PUNT6 plays · 7 yds · 1:381% → 1%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.2%
Michael Hiers run for 7 yds to the Samf 32 Michael Hiers fumbled, recovered by Samf Jaylan ThomasSimilar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+3
99.2%
Michael Hiers pass complete to Judd Cockett for 3 yds to the Samf 25Similar
Q2 13:22
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
99.1%
Bradley Porcellato punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Ladd McConkey at the Geo 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 8TD9 plays · 71 yds · 4:0299% → 100%
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
99.2%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Dillon Bell for 5 yds to the Geo 34Similar
Q2 12:23
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+16
99.2%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kearis Jackson for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
99.2%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kenny McIntosh for 4 yds to the Samf 32Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+11
99.1%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kenny McIntosh for 11 yds to the Samf 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+10
99.1%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Jackson Meeks for 10 yds to the Samf 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 2
OPP 3
+3
99.5%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Dillon Bell for 3 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:491% → 1%
Q2 7:53
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+21
99.4%
Bradley Porcellato punt for 39 yds , Ladd McConkey returns for 21 yds to the Samf 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 10FG8 plays · 36 yds · 2:3999% → 99%
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+18
99.4%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Brock Bowers for 18 yds to the Samf 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
99.4%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Darnell Washington for 5 yds to the Samf 21Similar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+11
99.4%
SAMFORD Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (11 Yards) to the Samf 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:39
1ST & 0
OPP 10
-10
99.4%
Bennett, Stetson pass complete to Bowers, Brock for 2 yards to the SAMFORD8, PENALTY GEORGIA holding 10 yards to the SAMFORD20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
+7
99.5%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kenny McIntosh for 7 yds to the Samf 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 11DOWNS5 plays · 9 yds · 1:071% → 1%
Q2 4:25
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
99.4%
Michael Hiers pass complete to Jaylan Thomas for 5 yds to the Samf 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 12TD7 plays · 44 yds · 2:40100% → 100%
SAMDrive 13PUNT8 plays · 6 yds · 0:190% → 0%
Q2 0:31
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
99.8%
Bradley Porcellato punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Geo 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 14END OF HALF5 plays · 22 yds · 0:15100% → 100%
UGADrive 15MISSED FG9 plays · 39 yds · 4:06100% → 100%
SAMDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:100% → 0%
UGADrive 17PUNT9 plays · 37 yds · 3:57100% → 100%
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
99.9%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Dominick Blaylock for 7 yds to the Geo 27Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+7
99.9%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint for 7 yds to the Geo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+6
99.9%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to De'Nylon Morrissette for 6 yds to the Samf 39Similar
Q3 4:43
4TH & 6
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Brett Thorson punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Chandler Smith at the Samf 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 18PUNT7 plays · 10 yds · 1:560% → 0%
Q3 4:15
2ND & 3
OWN 20
+3
99.9%
Michael Hiers pass complete to Judd Cockett for 3 yds to the Samf 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:10
1ST & 15
OWN 18
+5
99.9%
Michael Hiers pass complete to Peyton Ringer for 5 yds to the Samf 23Similar
Q3 2:34
4TH & 10
OWN 23
0
99.9%
Bradley Porcellato punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Kearis Jackson at the Geo 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 19FG9 plays · 57 yds · 5:54100% → 100%
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+16
99.9%
Carson Beck pass complete to De'Nylon Morrissette for 16 yds to the Samf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:55
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+14
99.9%
Carson Beck pass complete to Jackson Meeks for 14 yds to the Samf 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+14
99.9%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dillon Bell for 14 yds to the Samf 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
99.9%
Carson Beck pass complete to Branson Robinson for 2 yds to the Samf 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 20PUNT9 plays · 36 yds · 3:400% → 0%
Q4 9:55
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
99.9%
Quincy Crittendon pass complete to Ty King for 5 yds to the Samf 33Similar
Q4 9:05
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+36
99.9%
Quincy Crittendon pass complete to Ty King for 36 yds to the Geo 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 15
OPP 36
-9
99.9%
Quincy Crittendon sacked by Mykel Williams for a loss of 9 yards to the Geo 45Similar
Q4 7:15
3RD & 24
OPP 45
+6
100.0%
Quincy Crittendon pass complete to Kendall Watson for 6 yds to the Geo 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 21PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:26100% → 100%
SAMDrive 22PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:300% → 0%
Q4 3:20
4TH & 8
OWN 30
0
100.0%
Bradley Porcellato punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Kearis Jackson at the Geo 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 23PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:02100% → 100%
Q4 1:58
4TH & 2
OWN 32
0
100.0%
Brett Thorson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Chandler Smith at the Samf 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 24Uncategorized3 plays · 6 yds · 1:350% → 0%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:48
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Dillon Bell for 3 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)
+0.4
TD · Q2 0:55
Kenny McIntosh run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)
+0.3
TD · Q1 0:22
Stetson Bennett run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)
+0.2