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South Carolina 30 at Arkansas 44

ARK
2022 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2022 · Razorback Stadium
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Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadSC aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDSAFETYEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:54 · KJ Jefferson run for no gain to the SCaro 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 119Home team on offense+8.5Pregame prior+8.5Score differential+0.6Garbage-time factor+2.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:13: Rashod Dubinion run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) — ARK win probability +4.9 pts (now 86%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:56: MarShawn Lloyd run for 7 yds for a TD, (Mitch Jeter PAT MISSED) — SC win probability +4.1 pts (now 21%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:51: Spencer Rattler pass complete to Antwane Wells Jr. for 62 yds for a TD, (Mitch Jeter KICK) — SC win probability +9.7 pts (now 24%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:55: KJ Jefferson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) — ARK win probability +11.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:09: KJ Jefferson pass complete to Warren Thompson for 23 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) — ARK win probability +4.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 5 of 7SC made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 12:20SC 4th & 19 at SC 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.7%−0.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:35ARK 4th & 1 at SC 3, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.3%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    71.0%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    70.1%−1.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:32SC 4th & 5 at ARK 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.6%
    88% to make
    Punt
    24.7%−1.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:06SC 4th & 20 at SC 15, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%−1.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:26ARK 4th & 1 at SC 35, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    76.3%−1.9
    45% to make
    Punt
    75.9%−2.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:20SC 4th & 1 at ARK 24, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    14.3%−1.6
    68% to make
    Punt
    9.8%−6.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:50ARK 4th & 14 at SC 32, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.4%−1.2
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.7%
    51% to make
    Punt
    81.9%−1.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00SC 4th & 1 at ARK 41, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    17.8%−2.9
    32% to make
    Punt
    18.5%−2.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:46ARK 4th & 11 at ARK 48, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.8%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:54ARK 4th & 1 at SC 19, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    72.3%−2.7
    77% to make
    Punt
    63.8%−11.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:12SC 4th & 22 at SC 7, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.2%−5.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:39ARK 4th & 4 at ARK 39, up 19
    Close callPunted · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.2%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:39ARK 4th & 6 at SC 40, up 12
    Close callPunted · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    96.7%−0.3
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.6%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 4 of 6SC made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 6:42ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:28ARK Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:13ARK Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:56SC Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    18.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:51SC Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:55ARK Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:09ARK Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:25SC Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    5.2%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    5.3%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 6:00ARK Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 3:21SC Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    4.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    4.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SCDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:3027% → 28%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
72.8%
Spencer Rattler run for 8 yds to the SCaro 33Similar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+18
72.8%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Jalen Brooks for 18 yds to the Ark 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
72.6%
Jaheim Bell run for 6 yds to the Ark 43Similar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 4
OPP 43
0
72.5%
Spencer Rattler run for no gain to the Ark 43Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 4
OPP 43
-15
72.3%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the SCaro 42Similar
Q1 12:29
3RD & 19
OWN 42
0
72.4%
Spencer Rattler pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:20
4TH & 19
OWN 42
0
72.5%
Kai Kroeger punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ark 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 2TD
15 plays · 63 yds · 5:2872% → 75%
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
72.4%
KJ Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Ark 39Similar
Q1 11:31
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+8
72.4%
Raheim Sanders run for 8 yds to the Ark 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+17
72.4%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Raheim Sanders for 17 yds to the SCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
72.5%
KJ Jefferson run for 1 yd to the SCaro 35Similar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+4
72.5%
KJ Jefferson run for 4 yds to the SCaro 31Similar
Q1 9:56
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+6
72.4%
Raheim Sanders run for 6 yds to the SCaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+13
72.5%
Raheim Sanders run for 13 yds to the SCaro 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
72.5%
Raheim Sanders run for 4 yds to the SCaro 8Similar
Q1 8:57
2ND & 6
OPP 8
-5
72.4%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SCaro 13Similar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 11
OPP 13
+8
72.3%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 8 yds to the SCaro 5Similar
Q1 8:04
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+2
72.0%
Jadon Haselwood run for 2 yds to the SCaro 3Similar
Q1 7:35
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+2
71.9%
KJ Jefferson run for 2 yds to the SCaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
72.4%
Raheim Sanders run for no gain to the SCaro 1Similar
Q1 6:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
74.8%
Raheim Sanders run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 3FG
8 plays · 65 yds · 2:5626% → 28%
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
73.7%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the SCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
73.4%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Antwane Wells Jr. for 2 yds to the SCaro 42Similar
Q1 5:46
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+43
73.4%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to MarShawn Lloyd for 43 yds to the Ark 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
72.6%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to MarShawn Lloyd for 5 yds to the Ark 10Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 5
OPP 10
0
72.5%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Austin Stogner for no gain to the Ark 10Similar
Q1 3:35
3RD & 5
OPP 10
0
73.0%
Spencer Rattler pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:32
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+28
72.4%
Mitch Jeter 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 4TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:5472% → 78%
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
72.3%
Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
72.3%
Raheim Sanders run for 6 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q1 2:24
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+7
72.2%
KJ Jefferson run for 7 yds to the Ark 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-3
72.6%
Raheim Sanders run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 38Similar
Q1 1:49
2ND & 13
OWN 38
+10
72.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Warren Thompson for 10 yds to the Ark 48Similar
Q1 1:31
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+3
72.6%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 3 yds to the SCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
73.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Warren Thompson for 3 yds to the SCaro 46Similar
Q1 0:39
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+12
73.0%
Raheim Sanders run for 12 yds to the SCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
73.4%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 4 yds to the SCaro 30Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+16
73.4%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Matt Landers for 16 yds to the SCaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
73.4%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Matt Landers for 3 yds to the SCaro 11Similar
Q2 14:28
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+11
77.5%
Raheim Sanders run for 11 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 1:1523% → 22%
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
76.6%
Jaheim Bell run for a loss of 2 yards to the SCaro 23Similar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-8
77.1%
Spencer Rattler sacked by Drew Sanders for a loss of 8 yards to the SCaro 15Similar
Q2 13:16
3RD & 20
OWN 15
0
77.6%
Spencer Rattler pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:06
4TH & 20
OWN 15
+5
77.9%
Kai Kroeger punt for 44 yds , Bryce Stephens returns for 5 yds to the Ark 20 ARKANSAS Penalty, Personal Foul (7 Yards) to the Ark 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 6TD
12 plays · 61 yds · 4:3379% → 86%
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
78.5%
Malik Hornsby run for 8 yds to the Ark 47Similar
Q2 12:41
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+9
78.9%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Malik Hornsby for 9 yds to the SCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
79.3%
AJ Green run for 4 yds to the SCaro 40Similar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+5
79.4%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trey Knox for 5 yds to the SCaro 35Similar
Q2 11:02
3RD & 1
OPP 35
0
79.3%
KJ Jefferson run for no gain to the SCaro 35Similar
Q2 10:26
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+1
79.4%
KJ Jefferson run for 1 yd to the SCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
80.2%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+12
80.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Matt Landers for 12 yds to the SCaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+14
80.4%
AJ Green run for 14 yds to the SCaro 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
80.5%
AJ Green run for 4 yds to the SCaro 4Similar
Q2 8:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
80.7%
Rashod Dubinion run for 3 yds to the SCaro 1Similar
Q2 8:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
85.6%
Rashod Dubinion run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 7TD
15 plays · 70 yds · 4:4416% → 21%
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
84.3%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 2 yds to the SCaro 32Similar
Q2 7:22
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
84.4%
Spencer Rattler pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:16
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+15
84.9%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the SCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
84.0%
Juju McDowell run for 6 yds to the Ark 47Similar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+14
83.5%
Juju McDowell run for 14 yds to the Ark 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
83.4%
Spencer Rattler run for 8 yds to the Ark 25Similar
Q2 5:22
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+1
83.5%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 1 yd to the Ark 24Similar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 1
OPP 24
0
84.4%
Jaheim Bell run for no gain to the Ark 24Similar
Q2 4:20
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+3
84.5%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 3 yds to the Ark 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-5
84.0%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 26Similar
Q2 3:22
1ST & 15
OPP 26
+15
84.9%
Spencer Rattler run for 3 yds to the Ark 23 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS Penalty, Personal Foul (12 Yards) to the Ark 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
84.4%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 4 yds to the Ark 7Similar
Q2 2:56
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+7
79.5%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 7 yds for a TD, (Mitch Jeter PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 8MISSED FG
12 plays · 43 yds · 1:5883% → 84%
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
82.8%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Raheim Sanders for 11 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+16
83.3%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (16 Yards) to the SCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
84.0%
KJ Jefferson run for 9 yds to the SCaro 39Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+11
84.5%
KJ Jefferson run for 11 yds to the SCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-10
84.9%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the SCaro 38Similar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 20
OPP 38
-8
84.6%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Jordan Strachan for a loss of 8 yards to the SCaro 46Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 28
OPP 46
+14
85.4%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Matt Landers for 14 yds to the SCaro 32Similar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 14
OPP 32
0
85.2%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:50
4TH & 14
OPP 32
+50
84.4%
Cam Little 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 9DOWNS
5 plays · 27 yds · 0:4416% → 17%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+18
83.9%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Ahmarean Brown for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
50
0
82.7%
Spencer Rattler pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 10
50
+7
83.2%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to MarShawn Lloyd for 7 yds to the Ark 43Similar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+2
82.1%
Spencer Rattler run for 2 yds to the Ark 41Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 41
0
82.6%
Spencer Rattler pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 10PUNT
10 plays · 23 yds · 3:0484% → 84%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
84.1%
Raheim Sanders run for 4 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
84.2%
Raheim Sanders run for 1 yd to the Ark 30Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+8
83.8%
KJ Jefferson run for 8 yds to the Ark 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
85.2%
Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds to the Ark 41Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+8
85.4%
Raheim Sanders run for 8 yds to the Ark 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-4
85.5%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Jordan Burch for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 45Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 14
OWN 45
+3
85.1%
AJ Green run for 3 yds to the Ark 48Similar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 11
OWN 48
0
84.5%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:46
4TH & 11
OWN 48
0
84.3%
Max Fletcher punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Josh Vann at the SCaro 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 11TD
10 plays · 88 yds · 2:4917% → 24%
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
83.4%
Spencer Rattler pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+17
83.7%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Austin Stogner for 17 yds to the SCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
83.2%
Spencer Rattler pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:03
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
85.0%
Spencer Rattler pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:52
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+16
85.4%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Antwane Wells Jr. for 16 yds to the SCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
84.7%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 2 yds to the SCaro 47Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
84.6%
Spencer Rattler sacked by Drew Sanders for a loss of 4 yards to the SCaro 43 Spencer Rattler fumbled, recovered by SCaro Spencer Rattler , return for 0 yards , return for 0 yards to the SCaro 43 Spencer Rattler fumbled, recovered by SCaro Vershon Lee , return for 0 yards , return for a loss of 2 yards to the SCaro 43Similar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 10
OWN 43
-5
85.5%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SCaro 38Similar
Q3 8:51
3RD & 15
OWN 38
+62
75.7%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Antwane Wells Jr. for 62 yds for a TD, (Mitch Jeter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12DOWNS
6 plays · 56 yds · 1:2875% → 76%
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+47
74.7%
Raheim Sanders run for 47 yds to the SCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
78.4%
Raheim Sanders run for 4 yds to the SCaro 24Similar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+3
78.5%
Jadon Haselwood run for 3 yds to the SCaro 21Similar
Q3 6:54
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+2
77.4%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Raheim Sanders for 2 yds to the SCaro 19Similar
Q3 6:54
4TH & 1
OPP 19
0
76.3%
KJ Jefferson run for no gain to the SCaro 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -12 yds · 1:3525% → 22%
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
75.5%
Spencer Rattler pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+3
75.7%
Juju McDowell run for 3 yds to the SCaro 22Similar
Q3 5:56
3RD & 7
OWN 22
-15
76.5%
Spencer Rattler sacked by Bumper Pool for a loss of 15 yards to the SCaro 7Similar
Q3 5:12
4TH & 22
OWN 7
-3
78.5%
Kai Kroeger punt for 39 yds , Bryce Stephens returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 4 ARKANSAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Ark 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 14TD
14 plays · 59 yds · 4:4477% → 92%
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
76.5%
Raheim Sanders run for 4 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q3 4:25
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+5
76.8%
Raheim Sanders run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:10
3RD & 1
50
+4
76.8%
Raheim Sanders run for 4 yds to the SCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
78.0%
Raheim Sanders run for 10 yds to the SCaro 36 ARKANSAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the SCaro 46Similar
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
78.1%
KJ Jefferson run for 8 yds to the SCaro 38Similar
Q3 2:49
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+2
78.2%
AJ Green run for 2 yds to the SCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
78.2%
AJ Green run for 2 yds to the SCaro 34Similar
Q3 1:43
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+7
79.5%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 7 yds to the SCaro 27Similar
Q3 1:26
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+3
78.2%
Rashod Dubinion run for 3 yds to the SCaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
79.6%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 9 yds to the SCaro 15Similar
Q3 0:38
2ND & 1
OPP 15
+5
79.6%
KJ Jefferson run for 5 yds to the SCaro 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
79.6%
KJ Jefferson run for 9 yds to the SCaro 1Similar
Q3 0:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
79.9%
Raheim Sanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the SCaro 2Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
91.6%
KJ Jefferson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 15FUMBLE
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:1510% → 10%
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
90.3%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Antwane Wells Jr. for 4 yds Antwane Wells Jr. fumbled, recovered by SCaro Austin StognerSimilar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
90.0%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to MarShawn Lloyd for 7 yds MarShawn Lloyd fumbled, recovered by Ark Hudson ClarkSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 16TD
5 plays · 41 yds · 1:3492% → 98%
Q4 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
92.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 6 yds to the SCaro 35Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+3
92.2%
Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds to the SCaro 32Similar
Q4 13:13
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+3
92.0%
Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds to the SCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
93.6%
Matt Landers run for 6 yds to the SCaro 23Similar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+23
98.2%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Warren Thompson for 23 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 17INT
8 plays · 52 yds · 1:004% → 4%
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
96.3%
Spencer Rattler pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:49
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
96.5%
Spencer Rattler pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:31
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+30
96.7%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Antwane Wells Jr. for 30 yds to the Ark 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
96.3%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Antwane Wells Jr. for 7 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+15
95.8%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Ark 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
95.8%
Spencer Rattler pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:57
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
95.9%
Spencer Rattler pass intercepted, touchback. Dwight McGlothern return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:5298% → 99%
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
98.2%
AJ Green run for 8 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q4 9:37
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+5
98.3%
AJ Green run for 5 yds to the Ark 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
98.4%
Rashod Dubinion run for 2 yds to the Ark 35Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+4
98.5%
Rashod Dubinion run for 4 yds to the Ark 39Similar
Q4 7:47
3RD & 4
OWN 39
0
98.6%
Rashod Dubinion run for no gain to the Ark 39Similar
Q4 7:39
4TH & 4
OWN 39
0
98.6%
Max Fletcher punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SCaro 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 19TD
3 plays · 76 yds · 1:053% → 7%
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+64
97.3%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Antwane Wells Jr. for 64 yds to the Ark 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+11
96.7%
Juju McDowell run for 11 yds to the Ark 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.0%
Juju McDowell run for 1 yd for a TD, (Spencer Rattler pass to Ahmarean Brown for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 20TD
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:0895% → 99%
Q4 6:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
95.3%
KJ Jefferson run for 8 yds to the SCaro 1Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.7%
AJ Green run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 21TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:232% → 3%
Q4 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
98.2%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to MarShawn Lloyd for 6 yds to the SCaro 31Similar
Q4 5:18
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
98.2%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Antwane Wells Jr. for 4 yds to the SCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
98.2%
Spencer Rattler run for 7 yds to the SCaro 42Similar
Q4 4:29
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+4
98.2%
MarShawn Lloyd run for 4 yds to the SCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
98.3%
Spencer Rattler pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+20
98.3%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Antwane Wells Jr. for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down ARKANSAS Penalty, Personal Foul (16 Yards) to the Ark 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
97.9%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Juju McDowell for a loss of 5 yards to the Ark 39Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 15
OPP 39
+38
98.2%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Austin Stogner for 38 yds to the Ark 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
97.9%
Juju McDowell run for no gain to the Ark 1Similar
Q4 3:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.6%
Jaheim Bell run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 1:3198% → 98%
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
97.5%
KJ Jefferson run for 2 yds to the SCaro 42Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+2
97.5%
Rashod Dubinion run for 2 yds to the SCaro 40Similar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 6
OPP 40
0
97.6%
Rashod Dubinion run for no gain to the SCaro 40Similar
Q4 1:39
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
98.1%
Max Fletcher punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Josh Vann at the SCaro 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 23SF
1 play · -10 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-10
98.6%
Spencer Rattler sacked by Jordan Domineck for a loss of 10 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 24FUMBLE
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:042% → 1%
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
98.5%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Jalen Brooks for 11 yds to the SCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
98.5%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Austin Stogner for 2 yds to the SCaro 42Similar
Q4 0:43
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+11
98.5%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Austin Stogner for 11 yds to the Ark 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
98.3%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to MarShawn Lloyd for 4 yds to the Ark 43Similar
Q4 0:06
2ND & 6
OPP 43
-8
98.3%
Spencer Rattler sacked by Chris Paul Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the SCaro 49Similar
Q4 0:06
3RD & 14
OWN 49
-6
98.6%
Spencer Rattler sacked by Jayden Johnson for a loss of 6 yards to the SCaro 43 Spencer Rattler fumbled, recovered by Ark Chris Paul Jr. , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 25END OF 4TH QUARTER
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
98.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the SCaro 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:55
KJ Jefferson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)
+11.7
TD · Q3 8:51
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Antwane Wells Jr. for 62 yds for a TD, (Mitch Jeter KICK)
-9.7
TD · Q2 8:13
Rashod Dubinion run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)
+4.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com