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ALA

Alabama 20 at Texas 19

TEX
2022 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2022 · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · TEX
modelTEX aheadALA aheadconfidence bandkey playTEX scoreALA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDFGFGTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:01 · Hudson Card pass complete to Bijan Robinson for 30 yds to the Alab 46 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+42.0+21.00−21.0−42.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q3 6:27: Bert Auburn 33 Yd Field Goal — TEX win probability +4.5 pts (now 42%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  2. FG · Q4 12:55: Bert Auburn 24 Yd Field Goal — TEX win probability +8.4 pts (now 68%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 8:29: Jahmyr Gibbs 7 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Will Reichard Kick) — ALA win probability +28.2 pts (now 69%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 1:29: Bert Auburn 49 yd FG GOOD — TEX win probability +34.6 pts (now 83%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:10: Will Reichard 33 yd FG GOOD — ALA win probability +60.7 pts (now 89%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TEX made the numbers' call on 6 of 9ALA made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 8:47ALA 4th & 11 at TEX 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.2%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.2%
    47% to make
    Punt
    87.2%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:51TEX 4th & 8 at ALA 8, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.2%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.3%
    90% to make
    Punt
    14.2%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 9:47ALA 4th & 25 at ALA 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.6%−1.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:59TEX 4th & 18 at TEX 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%−1.9
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:35ALA 4th & 3 at TEX 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.4%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:14TEX 4th & 21 at TEX 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%−2.0
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:40ALA 4th & 7 at ALA 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.6%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:15TEX 4th & 7 at TEX 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−1.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:40ALA 4th & 17 at ALA 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.5%−3.6
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:41TEX 4th & 5 at TEX 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.0%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:39ALA 4th & 7 at ALA 4, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.5%−2.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:27TEX 4th & 2 at ALA 15, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.5%−1.3
    83% to make
    Punt
    26.5%−11.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:42ALA 4th & 2 at ALA 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:55TEX 4th & 4 at ALA 6, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.9%−1.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    39.4%−18.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:30ALA 4th & 3 at TEX 37, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.7%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    30.3%−4.4
    40% to make
    Punt
    28.5%−6.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:28TEX 4th & 9 at TEX 26, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.0%−2.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:55ALA 4th & 1 at TEX 25, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    58.8%−8.3
    66% to make
    Punt
    36.9%−30.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:29TEX 4th & 10 at ALA 31, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%−14.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.4%
    54% to make
    Punt
    29.6%−20.8
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:10ALA 4th & 7 at TEX 14, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%−44.8
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.8%
    84% to make
    Punt
    8.2%−53.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEX made the numbers' call on 1 of 1ALA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 2:34ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:55TEX Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 8:29ALA Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.6%−2.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ALADrive 1FG
13 plays · 57 yds · 6:0892% → 89%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
8.5%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 6 yds to the Alab 15Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 4
OWN 15
-5
8.8%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Alab 10Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+7
9.2%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 7 yds to the Alab 17Similar
Q1 12:45
3RD & 2
OWN 17
+10
9.3%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for 10 yds to the Alab 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+23
9.6%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for 23 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
50
+4
9.6%
Jase McClellan run for 4 yds to the Texas 46Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 6
OPP 46
0
9.7%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Cameron LatuSimilar
Q1 10:55
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+13
9.9%
Bryce Young pass complete to Kobe Prentice for 13 yds to the Texas 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
10.1%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for 7 yds to the Texas 26Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 3
OPP 26
-4
10.1%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for a loss of 4 yards to the Texas 30Similar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 7
OPP 30
-4
10.3%
Bryce Young sacked by Ovie Oghoufo for a loss of 4 yards to the Texas 34Similar
Q1 8:47
4TH & 11
OPP 34
+52
10.7%
Will Reichard 52 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 2FG
18 plays · 67 yds · 5:1811% → 14%
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
10.9%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Ja'Tavion Sanders for 8 yds to the Texas 33Similar
Q1 7:41
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
11.3%
Bijan Robinson run for 4 yds to the Texas 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-7
11.5%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Roschon Johnson for 8 yds to the Texas 45 TEXAS Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Texas 30Similar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 17
OWN 30
+22
11.5%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 22 yds to the Alab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
12.2%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Alab 43Similar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 5
OPP 43
-2
12.3%
Bijan Robinson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 45Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+5
12.7%
Bijan Robinson run for 5 yds to the Alab 40Similar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+5
12.7%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Alab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
13.0%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Austin JordanSimilar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+8
13.1%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 8 yds to the Alab 27Similar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+4
13.1%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 4 yds to the Alab 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+14
13.7%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 14 yds to the Alab 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
13.7%
Bijan Robinson run for 1 yd to the Alab 8Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
13.8%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Ja'Tavion SandersSimilar
Q1 2:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
13.5%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Ja'Tavion SandersSimilar
Q1 2:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
14.0%
Bert Auburn 26 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 3TD
2 plays · 81 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+81
11.5%
Jase McClellan 81 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 4TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3012% → 17%
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
11.5%
Bijan Robinson run for 2 yds to the Texas 27Similar
Q1 1:31
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
11.8%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 7 yds to the Texas 34Similar
Q1 1:16
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+17
12.0%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 17 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+48
12.8%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 46 yds to the Alab 3 for a 1ST down ALABAMA Penalty, Personal Foul (Khyree Jackson) to the Alab 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:31
1ST & 0
OPP 1
0
13.5%
Ewers, Quinn pass incomplete, PENALTY ALABAMA roughing passer (Turner, Dallas) 0 yards to the ALABAMA1, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXAS.Similar
Q1 0:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
13.4%
Bijan Robinson run for no gain to the Alab 1Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
16.7%
Bijan Robinson 1 Yd Run (Bert Auburn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 5PUNT
14 plays · 9 yds · 4:5685% → 81%
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
15.1%
Jase McClellan run for 4 yds to the Alab 29Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
15.1%
Bryce Young pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:55
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+8
15.7%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for 8 yds to the Alab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
15.4%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Cameron LatuSimilar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
15.6%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 3 yds to the Alab 40Similar
Q2 12:40
3RD & 7
OWN 40
-5
16.0%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (JC Latham) to the Alab 35Similar
Q2 12:20
3RD & 12
OWN 35
+14
16.9%
Bryce Young pass complete to Cameron Latu for 14 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
15.8%
Bryce Young pass complete to Traeshon Holden for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 48Similar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+2
16.6%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:02
3RD & 9
50
-11
17.4%
Bryce Young sacked by Jaylan Ford for a loss of 11 yards to the Alab 39Similar
Q2 10:02
4TH & 20
OWN 39
-5
18.7%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Demouy Kennedy) to the Alab 34Similar
Q2 9:47
4TH & 25
OWN 34
+50
18.9%
James Burnip punt for 50 yds , Xavier Worthy returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 3 yds · 3:3619% → 21%
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-5
19.2%
Robinson, Bijan rush for 4 yards to the TEXAS19, PENALTY TEXAS illegal formation 5 yards to the TEXAS10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:10
1ST & 15
OWN 10
+7
19.5%
Bijan Robinson run for 7 yds to the Texas 17Similar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+9
20.1%
Hudson Card run for 9 yds to the Texas 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
20.5%
Keilan Robinson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 24Similar
Q2 7:14
2ND & 12
OWN 24
-2
20.8%
Roschon Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 22Similar
Q2 6:33
3RD & 14
OWN 22
+1
20.5%
Hudson Card pass complete to Roschon Johnson for 1 yd to the Texas 23Similar
Q2 6:07
4TH & 13
OWN 23
-5
20.4%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Texas 18Similar
Q2 5:59
4TH & 18
OWN 18
0
20.5%
Daniel Trejo punt for 37 yds , Kool-Aid McKinstry returns for no gain to the Alab 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1581% → 80%
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
18.6%
Jase McClellan run for 2 yds to the Alab 47Similar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+5
18.9%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 5 yds to the Texas 48Similar
Q2 4:42
3RD & 3
OPP 48
0
19.2%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Kobe PrenticeSimilar
Q2 4:35
4TH & 3
OPP 48
0
20.0%
James Burnip punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Texas 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0623% → 23%
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+15
23.0%
Hudson Card pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 15 yds to the Texas 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
23.5%
Hudson Card pass incomplete to Xavier WorthySimilar
Q2 3:47
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+1
23.6%
Bijan Robinson run for 1 yd to the Texas 31Similar
Q2 3:20
3RD & 9
OWN 31
-12
23.2%
Hudson Card sacked by Kool-Aid McKinstry for a loss of 12 yards to the Texas 19 TEXAS Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Hudson Card) to the Texas 19Similar
Q2 3:14
4TH & 21
OWN 19
0
22.5%
Daniel Trejo punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Kool-Aid McKinstry at the Alab 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1980% → 77%
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
20.2%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jase McClellan for 2 yds to the Alab 47Similar
Q2 2:34
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+1
20.3%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 1 yd to the Alab 48Similar
Q2 1:46
3RD & 7
OWN 48
0
21.2%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Isaiah BondSimilar
Q2 1:40
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
22.7%
James Burnip punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Xavier Worthy at the Texas 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 10DOWNS
11 plays · 86 yds · 1:2425% → 32%
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
25.2%
Bijan Robinson run for 5 yds to the Texas 17Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+5
25.5%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Will Anderson Jr.) to the Texas 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
25.7%
Bijan Robinson run for 3 yds to the Texas 25Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+18
26.3%
Bijan Robinson run for 18 yds to the Texas 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
28.0%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (Cole Hutson) to the Texas 38Similar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 15
OWN 38
+42
26.6%
Hudson Card pass complete to Bijan Robinson for 42 yds to the Alab 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
29.9%
Hudson Card pass complete to Ja'Tavion Sanders for 1 yd to the Alab 19Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+4
30.0%
Card, Hudson pass incomplete to Cain, Casey, PENALTY ALABAMA pass interference (McKinstry, Kool-Aid) 4 yards to the ALABAMA15, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXAS.Similar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+13
30.1%
Card, Hudson pass incomplete to Sanders, Ja'Tavion, PENALTY ALABAMA pass interference (McKinstry, Kool-Aid) 13 yards to the ALABAMA2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXAS.Similar
Q2 0:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
30.2%
Hudson Card pass incomplete to Xavier WorthySimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 0
OPP 2
+20
31.5%
Bert Auburn 20 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:3027% → 26%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-4
26.9%
Bijan Robinson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Texas 11Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 14
OWN 11
0
27.3%
Hudson Card pass incomplete to Bijan RobinsonSimilar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 14
OWN 11
+7
26.5%
Hudson Card run for 7 yds to the Texas 18Similar
Q3 13:15
4TH & 7
OWN 18
0
26.3%
Daniel Trejo punt for 61 yds, downed at the Alab 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:2575% → 71%
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
25.5%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for no gain to the Alab 21Similar
Q3 12:05
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-7
27.0%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for a loss of 7 yards to the Alab 14Similar
Q3 11:48
3RD & 17
OWN 14
0
28.3%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Kobe PrenticeSimilar
Q3 11:40
4TH & 17
OWN 14
0
29.3%
James Burnip punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Xavier Worthy at the Texas 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5132% → 31%
Q3 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
32.0%
Hudson Card pass incomplete to Jordan WhittingtonSimilar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+5
31.8%
Roschon Johnson run for 5 yds to the Texas 49Similar
Q3 10:45
3RD & 5
OWN 49
0
32.3%
Hudson Card pass incomplete to Jordan WhittingtonSimilar
Q3 10:41
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
30.9%
Daniel Trejo punt for 50 yds, downed at the Alab 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5172% → 68%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
28.5%
Jase McClellan run for 3 yds to the Alab 4Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 7
OWN 4
0
29.3%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jermaine BurtonSimilar
Q3 9:50
3RD & 7
OWN 4
0
30.5%
Bryce Young pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:39
4TH & 7
OWN 4
+9
31.6%
James Burnip punt for 44 yds , Xavier Worthy returns for 9 yds to the Alab 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 15FG
6 plays · 24 yds · 2:3336% → 42%
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
35.9%
Hudson Card pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 6 yds to the Alab 33Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+10
37.4%
Hudson Card pass complete to Ja'Tavion Sanders for a loss of 5 yards to the Alab 38 for a 1ST down ALABAMA Penalty, Personal Foul (Will Anderson Jr.) to the Alab 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
37.7%
Bijan Robinson run for 4 yds to the Alab 19Similar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+4
38.7%
Roschon Johnson run for 4 yds to the Alab 15Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 2
OPP 15
0
38.0%
Bijan Robinson run for no gain to the Alab 15Similar
Q3 6:27
4TH & 2
OPP 15
+33
42.4%
Bert Auburn 33 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 2:3360% → 55%
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
39.7%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for a loss of 4 yards to the Alab 21Similar
Q3 5:44
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+10
41.0%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for 10 yds to the Alab 31Similar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-5
41.2%
Bryce Young run for 5 yds to the Alab 36 ALABAMA Penalty, Personal Foul (-10 Yards) to the Alab 26Similar
Q3 4:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+7
44.9%
Bryce Young run for 7 yds to the Alab 33Similar
Q3 3:42
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+2
44.8%
James Burnip punt for 40 yds , Xavier Worthy returns for 2 yds to the Texas 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 17FG
13 plays · 65 yds · 5:0545% → 68%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+13
45.4%
Hudson Card pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 13 yds to the Texas 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-9
48.5%
Hudson Card sacked by Jaylen Moody for a loss of 9 yards to the Texas 33Similar
Q3 2:14
2ND & 19
OWN 33
+20
45.7%
Hudson Card run for 20 yds to the Alab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
51.4%
Roschon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Alab 44Similar
Q3 1:14
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+5
51.9%
Bijan Robinson run for 5 yds to the Alab 39Similar
Q3 1:00
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+2
51.5%
Bijan Robinson run for 2 yds to the Alab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
53.0%
Card, Hudson pass incomplete to Robinson, Bijan, PENALTY ALABAMA offside 5 yards to the ALABAMA32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:18
1ST & 5
OPP 32
0
54.6%
Hudson Card pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+20
55.0%
Hudson Card pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 8 yds to the Alab 24 for a 1ST down ALABAMA Penalty, Personal Foul (12 Yards) to the Alab 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
60.1%
Hudson Card pass complete to Keilan Robinson for 5 yds to the Alab 7Similar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 5
OPP 7
0
60.7%
Bijan Robinson run for no gain to the Alab 7Similar
Q4 13:06
3RD & 5
OPP 7
+1
60.0%
Hudson Card pass complete to Bijan Robinson for 1 yd to the Alab 6Similar
Q4 12:55
4TH & 4
OPP 6
+24
68.4%
Bert Auburn 24 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:5642% → 69%
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
58.4%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 3 yds to the Alab 28Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
57.9%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jermaine BurtonSimilar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+17
62.8%
Bryce Young run for 17 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
58.3%
Bryce Young pass complete to Kobe Prentice for 7 yds to the Texas 48Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+4
55.6%
Roydell Williams run for 4 yds to the Texas 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
57.0%
Bryce Young pass complete to Kobe Prentice for 8 yds to the Texas 36Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 2
OPP 36
-1
59.3%
Bryce Young pass complete to Kobe Prentice for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 37Similar
Q4 9:35
3RD & 3
OPP 37
0
60.1%
Bryce Young pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:30
4TH & 3
OPP 37
+14
63.3%
Bryce Young pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 14 yds to the Texas 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+16
58.9%
Bryce Young pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 16 yds to the Texas 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
30.7%
Jahmyr Gibbs 7 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Will Reichard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5540% → 37%
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
40.2%
Hudson Card pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
40.2%
Hudson Card pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 1 yd to the Texas 26Similar
Q4 7:41
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
38.4%
Hudson Card pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:28
4TH & 9
OWN 26
-3
37.0%
Daniel Trejo punt for 48 yds , Kool-Aid McKinstry returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20DOWNS
8 plays · 52 yds · 3:1565% → 66%
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
35.1%
Bryce Young pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 11 yds to the Alab 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+21
34.1%
Bryce Young pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 21 yds to the Texas 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
30.4%
Bryce Young pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 8 yds to the Texas 37Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+3
30.1%
Jase McClellan run for 3 yds to the Texas 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
29.3%
Bryce Young run for 4 yds to the Texas 30Similar
Q4 4:58
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+4
28.8%
Bryce Young pass complete to Cameron Latu for 4 yds to the Texas 26Similar
Q4 4:15
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+1
30.9%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 1 yd to the Texas 25Similar
Q4 3:55
4TH & 1
OPP 25
0
33.8%
Roydell Williams run for no gain to the Texas 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 21FG
10 plays · 44 yds · 2:1345% → 83%
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
44.5%
Bijan Robinson run for 1 yd to the Texas 26Similar
Q4 3:13
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+11
43.4%
Hudson Card pass complete to Roschon Johnson for 11 yds to the Texas 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
46.4%
Bijan Robinson run for 3 yds to the Texas 40Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+29
50.2%
Hudson Card pass complete to Casey Cain for 29 yds to the Alab 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
56.7%
Roschon Johnson run for 6 yds to the Alab 25Similar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+1
56.8%
Bijan Robinson run for 1 yd to the Alab 24Similar
Q4 1:34
3RD & 3
OPP 24
-7
54.9%
Hudson Card sacked by Will Anderson Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the Alab 31Similar
Q4 1:29
4TH & 10
OPP 31
+49
82.5%
Bert Auburn 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 22FG
12 plays · 61 yds · 1:1429% → 89%
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
70.8%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 8 yds to the Alab 33Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+20
68.4%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for 20 yds to the Texas 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
66.4%
Bryce Young pass complete to Cameron Latu for 5 yds to the Texas 42Similar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+5
69.0%
Bryce Young pass complete to Cameron Latu for 5 yds to the Texas 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+20
67.8%
Bryce Young run for 20 yds to the Texas 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
62.3%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Cameron LatuSimilar
Q4 0:19
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
64.0%
Bryce Young pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:15
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+3
68.7%
Bryce Young pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 3 yds to the Texas 14Similar
Q4 0:10
4TH & 7
OPP 14
+33
10.9%
Will Reichard 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 23END OF GAME
2 plays · 30 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+30
21.9%
Hudson Card pass complete to Bijan Robinson for 30 yds to the Alab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:10
Will Reichard 33 yd FG GOOD
-60.7
FG · Q4 1:29
Bert Auburn 49 yd FG GOOD
+34.6
TD · Q4 8:29
Jahmyr Gibbs 7 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Will Reichard Kick)
-28.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com