Try the model
LSU

LSU 23 at Florida State 24

FSU
2022 · Week 1 · Sep 4, 2022 · Caesars Superdome
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadLSU aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreLSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:10 · Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Mycah Pittman
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+41.5+20.80−20.8−41.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 68Home team on offense−0.9Garbage-time factor−0.9Pregame prior−5.2Score differential−1.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q3 8:29: Ryan Fitzgerald 25 yd FG GOOD — LSU win probability +10.7 pts (now 65%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:17: Jordan Travis pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 27 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) — LSU win probability +19.1 pts (now 81%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:08: Noah Cain run for 1 yd for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK) — FSU win probability +14.5 pts (now 26%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:04: DJ Lundy run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) — LSU win probability +21.7 pts (now 88%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:07: Jayden Daniels pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 22 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK) — FSU win probability +7.3 pts (now 11%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5LSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 11:41LSU 4th & 19 at FSU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.1%
    77% to make
    Punt
    58.7%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:15FSU 4th & 10 at LSU 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.9%
    58% to make
    Punt
    41.6%−1.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:59LSU 4th & 10 at LSU 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:43LSU 4th & 11 at FSU 13, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.8%−1.1
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.8%
    85% to make
    Punt
    53.3%−5.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:15FSU 4th & 4 at FSU 37, down 4
    Close callPunted · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:10FSU 4th & 2 at LSU 8, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.9%
    54% to convert
    Field goal
    41.9%−1.0
    90% to make
    Punt
    35.6%−7.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:29FSU 4th & 7 at LSU 7, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    31.7%−10.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:03LSU 4th & 7 at LSU 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.9%−1.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:08LSU 4th & 1 at FSU 1, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    83.6%−3.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    74.8%−11.9
    average punt
  10. Q4 5:31LSU 4th & 2 at FSU 39, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    93.4%−1.4
    36% to make
    Punt
    93.3%−1.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:15FSU 4th & 5 at FSU 45, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsPunted · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.4%−2.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2LSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 13:00LSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 4:17LSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 0:08FSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 9:04LSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.6%−0.9
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 4:07FSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.3%−1.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LSUDrive 1FG
9 plays · 46 yds · 2:5160% → 58%
Q1 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+40
40.2%
Jayden Daniels run for 25 yds to the FLORIDAST 40 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Renardo Green) to the FlaSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
40.2%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Kayshon BoutteSimilar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+9
40.2%
Jayden Daniels run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 16Similar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+9
40.4%
Armoni Goodwin run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
40.4%
Armoni Goodwin run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 5Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-14
40.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 14 yards to the FlaSt 19Similar
Q1 11:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 19
0
41.0%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 19
+37
41.7%
Damian Ramos 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2MISSED FG
11 plays · 46 yds · 4:0042% → 43%
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
41.7%
Jordan Travis sacked by BJ Ojulari for 0 yards to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
41.9%
Treshaun Ward run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q1 9:55
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+10
42.0%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Camren McDonald for 10 yds to the FlaSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+21
42.6%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 21 yds to the LSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-10
43.3%
Ward, Treshaun rush for 20 yards to the LSU22, PENALTY FLORIDAST holding (Gibbons, Dillan) 10 yards to the FLORIDAST48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 20
OWN 48
+23
43.0%
Jordan Travis run for 23 yds to the LSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
44.1%
Lawrance Toafili run for 3 yds to the LSU 26Similar
Q1 7:39
2ND & 7
OPP 26
-3
44.1%
Lawrance Toafili run for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 29Similar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 10
OPP 29
0
43.9%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Ontaria WilsonSimilar
Q1 7:15
4TH & 10
OPP 29
+47
43.3%
Ryan Fitzgerald 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 2:0656% → 55%
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-4
43.6%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Armoni Goodwin for a loss of 4 yards to the LSU 25Similar
Q1 6:24
2ND & 14
OWN 25
+5
44.2%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 5 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 9
OWN 30
-1
44.9%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Dennis Briggs Jr. and Kalen DeLoach for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 29Similar
Q1 4:59
4TH & 10
OWN 29
0
45.4%
Jay Bramblett punt for 56 yds , Mycah Pittman returns for no gain to the FlaSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4TD
15 plays · 85 yds · 6:4444% → 45%
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
44.3%
Trey Benson run for no gain to the FlaSt 15Similar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+1
44.5%
Jordan Travis run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 16Similar
Q1 3:30
3RD & 9
OWN 16
+13
44.3%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Camren McDonald for 13 yds to the FlaSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
45.2%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Johnny WilsonSimilar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+7
45.6%
Mycah Pittman run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 36Similar
Q1 1:48
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+6
46.3%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Mycah Pittman for 6 yds to the FlaSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
46.9%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Malik McClainSimilar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+7
46.5%
Trey Benson run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 49Similar
Q1 0:34
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+3
47.4%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Deuce Spann for 3 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
48.1%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Deuce Spann for 3 yds to the LSU 45Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+5
48.3%
Treshaun Ward run for 5 yds to the LSU 40Similar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+3
48.5%
Jordan Travis run for 3 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-2
49.1%
Treshaun Ward run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 39Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 12
OPP 39
+39
44.5%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 39 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 5MISSED FG
17 plays · 52 yds · 6:4758% → 60%
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
41.9%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Tatum Bethune for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 34Similar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+16
42.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:42
1ST & 10
50
+8
40.8%
Jayden Daniels run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q2 11:08
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+5
40.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 5 yds to the FlaSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
40.8%
Noah Cain run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 35Similar
Q2 10:01
2ND & 8
OPP 35
-10
40.6%
Daniels, Jayden pass complete to Jenkins, Jaray for 9 yards to the FLORIDAST26, PENALTY LSU holding (Taylor, Kole) 10 yards to the FLORIDAST45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:18
2ND & 18
OPP 45
+11
41.2%
Jayden Daniels run for 11 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q2 8:35
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+7
40.8%
Jayden Daniels run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
40.3%
Jayden Daniels run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 19Similar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+7
39.2%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 7 yds to the FlaSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
38.4%
Jayden Daniels run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 10Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+2
38.3%
Josh Williams run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 8Similar
Q2 6:10
3RD & 6
OPP 8
-5
38.8%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Cameron Wire) to the FlaSt 13Similar
Q2 5:48
3RD & 11
OPP 13
0
39.1%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Kayshon BoutteSimilar
Q2 5:43
4TH & 11
OPP 13
+30
40.5%
Damian Ramos 30 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Jared VerseSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6FUMBLE
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:0742% → 43%
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
41.5%
Jordan Travis run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 22Similar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
41.4%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Camren McDonaldSimilar
Q2 4:54
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+9
40.4%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 9 yds to the FlaSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
42.0%
Lawrance Toafili run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+4
42.0%
Trey Benson run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 37Similar
Q2 3:27
3RD & 4
OWN 37
0
44.6%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Ontaria WilsonSimilar
Q2 3:15
4TH & 4
OWN 37
0
43.0%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 47 yds , Malik Nabers returns for no gain to the LSU 16 Malik Nabers fumbled, recovered by FlaSt Wyatt RectorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 7DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5648% → 45%
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
48.1%
Treshaun Ward run for 2 yds to the LSU 14Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+6
47.9%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 6 yds to the LSU 8Similar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 2
OPP 8
0
45.7%
Jordan Travis run for no gain to the LSU 8Similar
Q2 1:10
4TH & 2
OPP 8
0
44.6%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Mycah PittmanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8END OF HALF
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:0158% → 59%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+8
41.6%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kole Taylor for 8 yds to the LSU 16Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 2
OWN 16
+15
40.2%
Jayden Daniels run for 15 yds to the LSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-12
39.4%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Jared Verse for a loss of 12 yards to the LSU 19Similar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 22
OWN 19
+10
41.0%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 10 yds to the LSU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 9FG
16 plays · 68 yds · 6:2142% → 35%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
41.7%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 12 yds to the FlaSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
42.4%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 6 yds to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+4
44.7%
Treshaun Ward run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
44.8%
Treshaun Ward run for 4 yds to the LSU 49Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 6
OPP 49
0
45.1%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Mycah PittmanSimilar
Q3 12:31
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+10
44.3%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 10 yds to the LSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
45.3%
Travis, Jordan pass incomplete, PENALTY FLORIDAST ineligible downfield on pass (Turnetine, Jazston) 5 yards to the LSU44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:47
1ST & 15
OPP 44
0
43.4%
Jordan Travis run for no gain to the LSU 44Similar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 15
OPP 44
+24
43.2%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 24 yds to the LSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
47.4%
Treshaun Ward run for 7 yds to the LSU 13Similar
Q3 10:02
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+3
47.5%
Treshaun Ward run for 3 yds to the LSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
47.7%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Johnny WilsonSimilar
Q3 9:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
47.7%
Trey Benson run for 3 yds to the LSU 7Similar
Q3 8:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
45.6%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Camren McDonaldSimilar
Q3 8:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
34.9%
Ryan Fitzgerald 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1268% → 68%
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
31.8%
Armoni Goodwin run for no gain to the LSU 23Similar
Q3 7:42
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
30.8%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:15
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+3
31.5%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 3 yds to the LSU 26Similar
Q3 7:03
4TH & 7
OWN 26
0
32.4%
Jay Bramblett punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 11TD
8 plays · 57 yds · 2:3536% → 19%
Q3 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
35.5%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 3 yds to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+7
36.0%
Treshaun Ward run for 7 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
37.0%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Johnny WilsonSimilar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
36.4%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Camren McDonaldSimilar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+14
34.4%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Mycah Pittman for 14 yds to the LSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
38.9%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Deuce SpannSimilar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+6
38.4%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 6 yds to the LSU 27Similar
Q3 4:17
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+27
19.3%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 27 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 12TD
13 plays · 82 yds · 3:5985% → 74%
Q3 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
14.7%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Kayshon BoutteSimilar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+15
14.8%
Daniels, Jayden pass incomplete to Thomas Jr., Brian, PENALTY FLORIDAST roughing passer (Dent, Akeem) 15 yards to the LSU33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
14.5%
Daniels, Jayden pass incomplete to Boutte, Kayshon, PENALTY FLORIDAST pass interference (Robinson, Jammie) 15 yards to the LSU48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
13.3%
Noah Cain run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+14
13.2%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 14 yds to the FlaSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+13
12.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 13 yds to the FlaSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
12.0%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 8 yds to the FlaSt 13Similar
Q3 2:33
2ND & 2
OPP 13
+5
11.9%
Jayden Daniels run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
11.7%
Noah Cain run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 5Similar
Q3 1:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
11.4%
Noah Cain run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 2Similar
Q3 0:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
11.3%
Noah Cain run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 1Similar
Q3 0:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
25.8%
Noah Cain run for 1 yd for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 13TD
14 plays · 79 yds · 5:5729% → 12%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
29.2%
Treshaun Ward run for no gain to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+8
29.1%
Treshaun Ward run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+7
28.3%
Lawrance Toafili run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
29.6%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Jazston Turnetine) to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q4 13:17
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+25
28.3%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Mycah Pittman for 25 yds to the LSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
33.2%
Trey Benson run for no gain to the LSU 44Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+15
32.6%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 15 yds to the LSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+16
35.1%
Deuce Spann run for 16 yds to the LSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
35.0%
Trey Benson run for 1 yd to the LSU 12Similar
Q4 10:36
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+8
34.9%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Markeston Douglas for 8 yds to the LSU 4Similar
Q4 10:16
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+2
30.8%
Jordan Travis run for 2 yds to the LSU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
33.3%
Treshaun Ward run for 1 yd to the LSU 1Similar
Q4 9:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
11.6%
DJ Lundy run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 14TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 4:5393% → 89%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
6.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 9 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q4 8:39
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
6.6%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Noah CainSimilar
Q4 8:30
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+9
7.0%
Noah Cain run for 9 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
6.1%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Jack Bech for 5 yds to the LSU 48Similar
Q4 7:39
2ND & 5
OWN 48
0
5.9%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Noah CainSimilar
Q4 7:31
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+5
6.0%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 5 yds to the FlaSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
5.4%
Armoni Goodwin run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q4 6:36
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+5
5.2%
Jayden Daniels run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 38Similar
Q4 6:17
3RD & 1
OPP 38
-1
5.0%
Armoni Goodwin run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q4 5:31
4TH & 2
OPP 39
+7
5.1%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 7 yds to the FlaSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
4.5%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 4 yds to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 6
OPP 28
0
4.1%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Kayshon BoutteSimilar
Q4 4:23
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+6
4.2%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 6 yds to the FlaSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
4.0%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Noah CainSimilar
Q4 4:07
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+22
11.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 22 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 15FUMBLE
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:5222% → 20%
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
21.6%
LSU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the FlaSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
24.3%
Treshaun Ward run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q4 3:09
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+4
23.1%
Deuce Spann run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
22.5%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Ontaria WilsonSimilar
Q4 2:15
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
19.9%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 47 yds , Malik Nabers returns for no gain to the LSU 8 Malik Nabers fumbled, recovered by FlaSt Brendan GantSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 16FUMBLE
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:2527% → 27%
Q4 1:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
27.2%
Treshaun Ward run for 4 yds to the LSU 4Similar
Q4 1:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
28.3%
Treshaun Ward run for 3 yds to the LSU 1Similar
Q4 1:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
27.4%
Treshaun Ward run for no gain to the LSU 1 Treshaun Ward fumbled, forced by TEAM, recovered by LSU Mekhi WingoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 17TD
15 plays · 99 yds · 1:0590% → 95%
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+7
10.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 7 yds to the LSU 8Similar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 3
OWN 8
+7
10.5%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 7 yds to the LSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+14
10.0%
Jayden Daniels run for 14 yds to the LSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+13
11.4%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 13 yds to the LSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
10.5%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 10 yds to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
9.4%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Jared Verse for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 47Similar
Q4 0:15
2ND & 15
OWN 47
+24
16.4%
Jayden Daniels run for 24 yds to the FlaSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
14.8%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:10
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+10
14.9%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 10 yds to the FlaSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+17
14.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 17 yds to the FlaSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
5.5%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 2 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+94.5
TD · Q4 9:04
DJ Lundy run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)
-21.7
TD · Q3 4:17
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 27 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)
-19.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com